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Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 1 hour 51 min ago

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 hours 43 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in eastern New Mexico and vicinity this afternoon. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Cook.. 02/23/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today, mainly across portions of eastern NM and southwest TX. The western upper trough will rotate across the Four Corners region toward the Rockies and adjacent High Plains by tonight. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase and a weak lee trough will develop over the southern High Plains. As a result, breezy southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph with some higher gusts are expected. RH values also will fall into the 15-25 percent range. While these conditions will be present across a larger area from southeast AZ through much of NM, fuel conditions do not appear favorable further west and any threat should remain focused across the High Plains to the east of the central mountains in NM into southwest TX. Some brief and localized critical conditions cannot be ruled out, mainly closer to the mountains where RH values will be lowest due to dry, downslope winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

10 hours 43 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the western U.S. on Saturday. A shortwave trough will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies to the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Rockies by the end of the period. This will maintain strong westerly deep layer flow over the central and southern Rockies into the adjacent Plains. At the surface, a tight surface pressure gradient over the southern High Plains will be maintained into the afternoon before surface high pressure over the Great Basin weakens and the gradient slackens. This will aid in development of gusty downslope surface winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected, where fuels are dry from parts of southeast CO, eastern NM, western TX and extreme southwest OK. Sustained westerly wind of 15-20 mph with higher gusts are expected as RH values fall into the 12-20 percent range. Critical fire weather conditions may occur on a brief/spotty basis as well. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

10 hours 44 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today, mainly across portions of eastern NM and southwest TX. The western upper trough will rotate across the Four Corners region toward the Rockies and adjacent High Plains by tonight. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase and a weak lee trough will develop over the southern High Plains. As a result, breezy southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph with some higher gusts are expected. RH values also will fall into the 15-25 percent range. While these conditions will be present across a larger area from southeast AZ through much of NM, fuel conditions do not appear favorable further west and any threat should remain focused across the High Plains to the east of the central mountains in NM into southwest TX. Some brief and localized critical conditions cannot be ruled out, mainly closer to the mountains where RH values will be lowest due to dry, downslope winds. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/22/2018 - 13:59
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible in eastern New Mexico and vicinity Friday afternoon. Areas of gusty winds (locally exceeding 20-25 mph) will coincide with 15-25% RH values during the afternoon across the elevated area. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 02/22/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ ...Synopsis... The western upper trough centered over the Great Basin will track eastward to the southern/central Rockies on Friday. As heights fall, deep layer southwesterly flow will increase and a weak surface trough will develop across the southern High Plains. This will lead to breezy southwest surface winds across much of NM. RH values also will fall into the 15-25 percent range. This will result in elevated fire weather potential across the eastern NM Plains into parts of far southeast CO and southwestern TX. While gusty winds and low RH will also exist across western and central NM, fuel conditions are less favorable than further east, limiting fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/22/2018 - 09:43
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track, with continued quiescent fire weather across the Lower 48. ..Cook.. 02/22/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western U.S. will deepen and slowly shift east over the Great Basin today. Downstream, a broad swath of deep layer southwesterly flow will persist east of the Rockies. Strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will track east toward New England. Gulf moisture will slosh northeast as Wednesday cold front retreats as a warm front across the lower Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Fire weather concerns are not expected given widespread precipitation over the last few days east of the Rockies, and a general lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/22/2018 - 01:31
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... The western upper trough centered over the Great Basin will track eastward to the southern/central Rockies on Friday. As heights fall, deep layer southwesterly flow will increase and a weak surface trough will develop across the southern High Plains. This will lead to breezy southwest surface winds across much of NM. RH values also will fall into the 15-25 percent range. This will result in elevated fire weather potential across the eastern NM Plains into parts of far southeast CO and southwestern TX. While gusty winds and low RH will also exist across western and central NM, fuel conditions are less favorable than further east, limiting fire weather concerns. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/22/2018 - 01:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western U.S. will deepen and slowly shift east over the Great Basin today. Downstream, a broad swath of deep layer southwesterly flow will persist east of the Rockies. Strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will track east toward New England. Gulf moisture will slosh northeast as Wednesday cold front retreats as a warm front across the lower Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Fire weather concerns are not expected given widespread precipitation over the last few days east of the Rockies, and a general lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH values. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 02/22/2018 - 01:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western U.S. will deepen and slowly shift east over the Great Basin today. Downstream, a broad swath of deep layer southwesterly flow will persist east of the Rockies. Strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will track east toward New England. Gulf moisture will slosh northeast as Wednesday cold front retreats as a warm front across the lower Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Fire weather concerns are not expected given widespread precipitation over the last few days east of the Rockies, and a general lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH values. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/21/2018 - 11:03
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Gleason.. 02/21/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ ...Synopsis... The overall upper pattern will not change much on Day 2/Thursday. The western upper trough will develop southward across the Great Basin with southwesterly deep layer flow overspreading much of the CONUS eastern of the Rockies. The stalled surface cold front will slosh westward a bit, but generally remain draped from the Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Some breezy conditions and marginally low RH values will be possible ahead of the upper trough across parts of AZ and NM, but fuel conditions are unfavorable and fire weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/21/2018 - 11:03
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Gleason.. 02/21/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ ...Synopsis... The overall upper pattern will not change much on Day 2/Thursday. The western upper trough will develop southward across the Great Basin with southwesterly deep layer flow overspreading much of the CONUS eastern of the Rockies. The stalled surface cold front will slosh westward a bit, but generally remain draped from the Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Some breezy conditions and marginally low RH values will be possible ahead of the upper trough across parts of AZ and NM, but fuel conditions are unfavorable and fire weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/21/2018 - 10:02
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 02/21/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will persist across the western U.S. while expansive southwesterly flow encompasses much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will track eastward off the TX coast and through New England, with the mid-South portion of the front stalling from KY into the lower MS Valley region. Strong surface high pressure will build over the Plains and Great Lakes behind the front and generally moist conditions are expected from the southern Plains into the southeastern U.S. A lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH conditions will preclude fire weather concerns today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/21/2018 - 10:02
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 02/21/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will persist across the western U.S. while expansive southwesterly flow encompasses much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will track eastward off the TX coast and through New England, with the mid-South portion of the front stalling from KY into the lower MS Valley region. Strong surface high pressure will build over the Plains and Great Lakes behind the front and generally moist conditions are expected from the southern Plains into the southeastern U.S. A lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH conditions will preclude fire weather concerns today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/21/2018 - 01:22
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The overall upper pattern will not change much on Day 2/Thursday. The western upper trough will develop southward across the Great Basin with southwesterly deep layer flow overspreading much of the CONUS eastern of the Rockies. The stalled surface cold front will slosh westward a bit, but generally remain draped from the Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Some breezy conditions and marginally low RH values will be possible ahead of the upper trough across parts of AZ and NM, but fuel conditions are unfavorable and fire weather concerns are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/21/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 02/21/2018 - 01:21
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough will persist across the western U.S. while expansive southwesterly flow encompasses much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will track eastward off the TX coast and through New England, with the mid-South portion of the front stalling from KY into the lower MS Valley region. Strong surface high pressure will build over the Plains and Great Lakes behind the front and generally moist conditions are expected from the southern Plains into the southeastern U.S. A lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH conditions will preclude fire weather concerns today. ..Leitman.. 02/21/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Tue, 02/20/2018 - 12:28
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move along the California coast on Wednesday morning and into the Southwest by Wednesday evening to reinforce the western U.S. trough, supporting continued southwesterly flow aloft over the central CONUS. In the wake of surface cold frontal passage across the plains, high pressure will move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley. Overall, the lack of strong winds and relatively cool/moist conditions over much of the CONUS will limit fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Tue, 02/20/2018 - 12:28
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move along the California coast on Wednesday morning and into the Southwest by Wednesday evening to reinforce the western U.S. trough, supporting continued southwesterly flow aloft over the central CONUS. In the wake of surface cold frontal passage across the plains, high pressure will move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley. Overall, the lack of strong winds and relatively cool/moist conditions over much of the CONUS will limit fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Tue, 02/20/2018 - 11:03
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Recent observations from surface, satellite, and radar data suggest the cold front has already progressed through much of the Texas Panhandle -- including portions of the Elevated fire weather area over the southern High Plains. The areas behind the front, as well as those that are expected to be behind it shortly, have been removed from the Elevated area, since cooler air will help temper large-scale fire weather conditions there. While guidance continues to poorly capture the forward progression of the shallow front (being much slower than what has been observed), the ongoing drought over the area supports a slightly less aggressive approach to removing areas. Thus, if frontal progression continues to exceed expectations, than portions of the Elevated area -- especially those along its northeastern/eastern periphery -- may not experience Elevated fire weather conditions. The front is expected to shift westward through much of the Elevated area by this evening, which could complicate any ongoing fire fighting efforts as winds abruptly shift from westerly/southwesterly to easterly/northeasterly. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will weaken over the West today as a midlevel speed max ejects downstream toward the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system near the Great Lakes will lift northeastward while an associated cold front slowly advances southeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley. Farther southwest, a dryline will sharpen from northern Texas to the Big Bend region. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Despite weakening flow aloft throughout the day, sufficient flow will linger to support sustained afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph across much of the region. Westerly downslope flow (west of the dryline and ahead of the advancing cold front) will also support warming/drying at the surface, leading to RH values falling to near 20%. These meteorological conditions will support elevated fire weather concerns given the ongoing drought and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Tue, 02/20/2018 - 11:03
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Recent observations from surface, satellite, and radar data suggest the cold front has already progressed through much of the Texas Panhandle -- including portions of the Elevated fire weather area over the southern High Plains. The areas behind the front, as well as those that are expected to be behind it shortly, have been removed from the Elevated area, since cooler air will help temper large-scale fire weather conditions there. While guidance continues to poorly capture the forward progression of the shallow front (being much slower than what has been observed), the ongoing drought over the area supports a slightly less aggressive approach to removing areas. Thus, if frontal progression continues to exceed expectations, than portions of the Elevated area -- especially those along its northeastern/eastern periphery -- may not experience Elevated fire weather conditions. The front is expected to shift westward through much of the Elevated area by this evening, which could complicate any ongoing fire fighting efforts as winds abruptly shift from westerly/southwesterly to easterly/northeasterly. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 02/20/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will weaken over the West today as a midlevel speed max ejects downstream toward the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system near the Great Lakes will lift northeastward while an associated cold front slowly advances southeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley. Farther southwest, a dryline will sharpen from northern Texas to the Big Bend region. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Despite weakening flow aloft throughout the day, sufficient flow will linger to support sustained afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph across much of the region. Westerly downslope flow (west of the dryline and ahead of the advancing cold front) will also support warming/drying at the surface, leading to RH values falling to near 20%. These meteorological conditions will support elevated fire weather concerns given the ongoing drought and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Tue, 02/20/2018 - 01:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move along the California coast on Wednesday morning and into the Southwest by Wednesday evening to reinforce the western U.S. trough, supporting continued southwesterly flow aloft over the central CONUS. In the wake of surface cold frontal passage across the plains, high pressure will move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley. Overall, the lack of strong winds and relatively cool/moist conditions over much of the CONUS will limit fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ..Jirak.. 02/20/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Tue, 02/20/2018 - 01:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will weaken over the West today as a midlevel speed max ejects downstream toward the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system near the Great Lakes will lift northeastward while an associated cold front slowly advances southeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley. Farther southwest, a dryline will sharpen from northern Texas to the Big Bend region. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Despite weakening flow aloft throughout the day, sufficient flow will linger to support sustained afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph across much of the region. Westerly downslope flow (west of the dryline and ahead of the advancing cold front) will also support warming/drying at the surface, leading to RH values falling to near 20%. These meteorological conditions will support elevated fire weather concerns given the ongoing drought and dry fuels. ..Jirak.. 02/20/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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