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Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 15 min 42 sec ago

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 hours 55 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/19/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject into the Central Plains during the day, with a surface low deepening across Chihuahua state in Mexico, into southwest Texas. Breezy, dry conditions, atop dry fine fuels, will promote some potential for fire spread across portions of southwest Texas during the afternoon hours. ...Portions of southwest Texas... As the surface low tracks near the Texas/Mexico border during the afternoon hours, 20+ mph winds and 10-20% RH are expected to materialize, particularly from the Sierra Vieja to the Chisos Mountains. Critical conditions are possible across parts of the elevated area during the afternoon (particularly along terrain experiencing downslope flow from higher elevations), though the very localized nature of these conditions precludes a critical delineation. By evening, the stronger winds will subside, with sufficient RH recovery expected, reducing the threat for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

12 hours 1 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will be exiting the Great Plains, with a second mid-level shortwave trough deepening across the western CONUS on Day 2/Wednesday. A surface low, located across the southern High Plains at the start of the day, will progress eastward throughout the afternoon, promoting breezy, dry conditions across the south-central CONUS, mainly during the afternoon hours. ...Portions of west Texas... As the aforementioned surface low tracks northeast, dry air, characterized by 10-20% RH, is expected surge east from New Mexico across much of west Texas during the mid-late afternoon hours. Temperatures however, will be relatively mild (i.e. in the 50s F), with modest westerly surface winds (sustained around 15 mph). As such, elevated conditions may be realized across southern portions of the Caprock Escarpment until the evening, when RH recovery and weakening winds will temper wildfire spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

12 hours 2 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject into the Central Plains during the day, with a surface low deepening across Chihuahua state in Mexico, into southwest Texas. Breezy, dry conditions, atop dry fine fuels, will promote some potential for fire spread across portions of southwest Texas during the afternoon hours. ...Portions of southwest Texas... As the surface low tracks near the Texas/Mexico border during the afternoon hours, 20+ mph winds and 10-20% RH are expected to materialize, particularly from the Sierra Vieja to the Chisos Mountains. Critical conditions are possible across parts of the elevated area during the afternoon (particularly along terrain experiencing downslope flow from higher elevations), though the very localized nature of these conditions precludes a critical delineation. By evening, the stronger winds will subside, with sufficient RH recovery expected, reducing the threat for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 13:31
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The elevated area was expanded slightly across the Big Bend region as lee troughing and the track of the surface low should shift elevated conditions farther east/north than previously forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject into the Central Plains, with a surface low becoming established across Chihuahua state in Mexico on Day 2/Tuesday. Breezy, dry conditions north of the surface low will be present along the U.S/Mexico border, supporting the potential for fire spread. ...Southwest Texas... A localized region of elevated wind/RH conditions, to the northwest of the aforementioned surface low, is expected just north of the U.S/Mexico border, mainly along/south of the Santiago and Chisos Mountains. Here, 15-20 mph winds, with 10-15% RH and 60F temperatures are expected during the late afternoon. Locally higher downslope winds may be briefly be observed along the lee of the Santiago or Chisos Mountains. As such, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. By evening, rapidly cooling temperatures will temper the threat for fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 13:31
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The elevated area was expanded slightly across the Big Bend region as lee troughing and the track of the surface low should shift elevated conditions farther east/north than previously forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject into the Central Plains, with a surface low becoming established across Chihuahua state in Mexico on Day 2/Tuesday. Breezy, dry conditions north of the surface low will be present along the U.S/Mexico border, supporting the potential for fire spread. ...Southwest Texas... A localized region of elevated wind/RH conditions, to the northwest of the aforementioned surface low, is expected just north of the U.S/Mexico border, mainly along/south of the Santiago and Chisos Mountains. Here, 15-20 mph winds, with 10-15% RH and 60F temperatures are expected during the late afternoon. Locally higher downslope winds may be briefly be observed along the lee of the Santiago or Chisos Mountains. As such, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. By evening, rapidly cooling temperatures will temper the threat for fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 10:32
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z East/northeast portions of the elevated area were trimmed west/south with cold air moving southwest across eastern New Mexico/West Texas. Lee troughing will struggle to displace the cold air and mix out the boundary layer across portions of southeast New Mexico/Trans-Pecos this afternoon leading to sub-elevated conditions. Additionally, cloud cover over this area may also inhibit insolation and afternoon mixing as the upper-level trough amplifies and streams mid-level moisture over the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 02/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the southwest CONUS, with surface lee troughing commencing along an axis from the Four Corners region, down to the west Texas/Mexico border. Return flow along and immediately ahead of the surface trough will be quite dry, supporting a modest threat for fire spread given the dry fuels in place. ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... Though temperatures will be rather mild during the afternoon hours (mainly in the 50s F), 15-20 mph southerly return flow associated with the aforementioned lee trough will transport very dry air from Chihuahua state in Mexico, with surface RH as low as 10-20% expected across portions of southern New Mexico into southwest Texas (west of the Edwards Plateau). As such, an elevated delineation was maintained across this area. After sunset, the surface airmass will rapidly cool, with RH recovery and subsiding winds expected, minimizing the wildfire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 10:32
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z East/northeast portions of the elevated area were trimmed west/south with cold air moving southwest across eastern New Mexico/West Texas. Lee troughing will struggle to displace the cold air and mix out the boundary layer across portions of southeast New Mexico/Trans-Pecos this afternoon leading to sub-elevated conditions. Additionally, cloud cover over this area may also inhibit insolation and afternoon mixing as the upper-level trough amplifies and streams mid-level moisture over the southern High Plains. ..Nauslar.. 02/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the southwest CONUS, with surface lee troughing commencing along an axis from the Four Corners region, down to the west Texas/Mexico border. Return flow along and immediately ahead of the surface trough will be quite dry, supporting a modest threat for fire spread given the dry fuels in place. ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... Though temperatures will be rather mild during the afternoon hours (mainly in the 50s F), 15-20 mph southerly return flow associated with the aforementioned lee trough will transport very dry air from Chihuahua state in Mexico, with surface RH as low as 10-20% expected across portions of southern New Mexico into southwest Texas (west of the Edwards Plateau). As such, an elevated delineation was maintained across this area. After sunset, the surface airmass will rapidly cool, with RH recovery and subsiding winds expected, minimizing the wildfire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 01:57
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject into the Central Plains, with a surface low becoming established across Chihuahua state in Mexico on Day 2/Tuesday. Breezy, dry conditions north of the surface low will be present along the U.S/Mexico border, supporting the potential for fire spread. ...Southwest Texas... A localized region of elevated wind/RH conditions, to the northwest of the aforementioned surface low, is expected just north of the U.S/Mexico border, mainly along/south of the Santiago and Chisos Mountains. Here, 15-20 mph winds, with 10-15% RH and 60F temperatures are expected during the late afternoon. Locally higher downslope winds may be briefly be observed along the lee of the Santiago or Chisos Mountains. As such, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. By evening, rapidly cooling temperatures will temper the threat for fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 01:57
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will eject into the Central Plains, with a surface low becoming established across Chihuahua state in Mexico on Day 2/Tuesday. Breezy, dry conditions north of the surface low will be present along the U.S/Mexico border, supporting the potential for fire spread. ...Southwest Texas... A localized region of elevated wind/RH conditions, to the northwest of the aforementioned surface low, is expected just north of the U.S/Mexico border, mainly along/south of the Santiago and Chisos Mountains. Here, 15-20 mph winds, with 10-15% RH and 60F temperatures are expected during the late afternoon. Locally higher downslope winds may be briefly be observed along the lee of the Santiago or Chisos Mountains. As such, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. By evening, rapidly cooling temperatures will temper the threat for fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 01:24
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the southwest CONUS, with surface lee troughing commencing along an axis from the Four Corners region, down to the west Texas/Mexico border. Return flow along and immediately ahead of the surface trough will be quite dry, supporting a modest threat for fire spread given the dry fuels in place. ...Southern New Mexico into far west Texas... Though temperatures will be rather mild during the afternoon hours (mainly in the 50s F), 15-20 mph southerly return flow associated with the aforementioned lee trough will transport very dry air from Chihuahua state in Mexico, with surface RH as low as 10-20% expected across portions of southern New Mexico into southwest Texas (west of the Edwards Plateau). As such, an elevated delineation was maintained across this area. After sunset, the surface airmass will rapidly cool, with RH recovery and subsiding winds expected, minimizing the wildfire threat. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 12:53
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Minor modifications were made to the elevated area across southern New Mexico/southwest Texas. Surface (lee) troughing should develop a bit farther west than previously expected with easterly, return flow now pushing farther west in southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas tomorrow. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough deepens across the southwest CONUS, a surface low will develop south of the Texas/New Mexico/Mexico borders area Day 2/Monday. Though strong return flow will accompany the developing low, air associated with the southerly flow will be rather dry, promoting at least modest potential for wildfire spread. ...Far southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico... 15-20 mph sustained southeasterly flow amidst 10-20% RH will be common during the afternoon hours on Monday. Temperatures however, will be mild, with 50F temperatures spanning far southwest Texas into the Mescalero Escarpment, restricted mainly to the lower terrain. As such, a relatively small elevated area was delineated where the greatest overlap of warmer temperatures coincided with the aforementioned 15-20 mph winds and 10-20% RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 12:53
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Minor modifications were made to the elevated area across southern New Mexico/southwest Texas. Surface (lee) troughing should develop a bit farther west than previously expected with easterly, return flow now pushing farther west in southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas tomorrow. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough deepens across the southwest CONUS, a surface low will develop south of the Texas/New Mexico/Mexico borders area Day 2/Monday. Though strong return flow will accompany the developing low, air associated with the southerly flow will be rather dry, promoting at least modest potential for wildfire spread. ...Far southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico... 15-20 mph sustained southeasterly flow amidst 10-20% RH will be common during the afternoon hours on Monday. Temperatures however, will be mild, with 50F temperatures spanning far southwest Texas into the Mescalero Escarpment, restricted mainly to the lower terrain. As such, a relatively small elevated area was delineated where the greatest overlap of warmer temperatures coincided with the aforementioned 15-20 mph winds and 10-20% RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 10:52
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z Forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A small mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within larger-scale mid-level cyclonic flow, will traverse the south-central CONUS during the day. A surface low will develop across portions of eastern New Mexico/west Texas, encouraging strong westerly winds across portions of southern New Mexico into southwest Texas, where dry fine fuels will support wildfire potential. ...Southern New Mexico into southwest Texas... As the aforementioned surface low becomes fortified in far east New Mexico during the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will be common across southern New Mexico, into portions of southwest Texas west of the Edwards Plateau. RH is expected to drop into the 10-20% range by peak heating of the afternoon. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected, with at least locally critical conditions possible, particularly in association with downslope flow along the lees of the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains, eastward to the Mescalero Escarpment in far southeast New Mexico per latest high-resolution model guidance. By evening, RH is expected to recover, with breezy conditions subsiding, tempering the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 10:52
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z Forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A small mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within larger-scale mid-level cyclonic flow, will traverse the south-central CONUS during the day. A surface low will develop across portions of eastern New Mexico/west Texas, encouraging strong westerly winds across portions of southern New Mexico into southwest Texas, where dry fine fuels will support wildfire potential. ...Southern New Mexico into southwest Texas... As the aforementioned surface low becomes fortified in far east New Mexico during the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will be common across southern New Mexico, into portions of southwest Texas west of the Edwards Plateau. RH is expected to drop into the 10-20% range by peak heating of the afternoon. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected, with at least locally critical conditions possible, particularly in association with downslope flow along the lees of the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains, eastward to the Mescalero Escarpment in far southeast New Mexico per latest high-resolution model guidance. By evening, RH is expected to recover, with breezy conditions subsiding, tempering the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 01:37
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough deepens across the southwest CONUS, a surface low will develop south of the Texas/New Mexico/Mexico borders area Day 2/Monday. Though strong return flow will accompany the developing low, air associated with the southerly flow will be rather dry, promoting at least modest potential for wildfire spread. ...Far southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico... 15-20 mph sustained southeasterly flow amidst 10-20% RH will be common during the afternoon hours on Monday. Temperatures however, will be mild, with 50F temperatures spanning far southwest Texas into the Mescalero Escarpment, restricted mainly to the lower terrain. As such, a relatively small elevated area was delineated where the greatest overlap of warmer temperatures coincided with the aforementioned 15-20 mph winds and 10-20% RH. ..Squitieri.. 02/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 01:37
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough deepens across the southwest CONUS, a surface low will develop south of the Texas/New Mexico/Mexico borders area Day 2/Monday. Though strong return flow will accompany the developing low, air associated with the southerly flow will be rather dry, promoting at least modest potential for wildfire spread. ...Far southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico... 15-20 mph sustained southeasterly flow amidst 10-20% RH will be common during the afternoon hours on Monday. Temperatures however, will be mild, with 50F temperatures spanning far southwest Texas into the Mescalero Escarpment, restricted mainly to the lower terrain. As such, a relatively small elevated area was delineated where the greatest overlap of warmer temperatures coincided with the aforementioned 15-20 mph winds and 10-20% RH. ..Squitieri.. 02/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 01:21
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A small mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within larger-scale mid-level cyclonic flow, will traverse the south-central CONUS during the day. A surface low will develop across portions of eastern New Mexico/west Texas, encouraging strong westerly winds across portions of southern New Mexico into southwest Texas, where dry fine fuels will support wildfire potential. ...Southern New Mexico into southwest Texas... As the aforementioned surface low becomes fortified in far east New Mexico during the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will be common across southern New Mexico, into portions of southwest Texas west of the Edwards Plateau. RH is expected to drop into the 10-20% range by peak heating of the afternoon. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected, with at least locally critical conditions possible, particularly in association with downslope flow along the lees of the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains, eastward to the Mescalero Escarpment in far southeast New Mexico per latest high-resolution model guidance. By evening, RH is expected to recover, with breezy conditions subsiding, tempering the fire weather threat. ..Squitieri.. 02/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 01:21
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A small mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within larger-scale mid-level cyclonic flow, will traverse the south-central CONUS during the day. A surface low will develop across portions of eastern New Mexico/west Texas, encouraging strong westerly winds across portions of southern New Mexico into southwest Texas, where dry fine fuels will support wildfire potential. ...Southern New Mexico into southwest Texas... As the aforementioned surface low becomes fortified in far east New Mexico during the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will be common across southern New Mexico, into portions of southwest Texas west of the Edwards Plateau. RH is expected to drop into the 10-20% range by peak heating of the afternoon. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected, with at least locally critical conditions possible, particularly in association with downslope flow along the lees of the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains, eastward to the Mescalero Escarpment in far southeast New Mexico per latest high-resolution model guidance. By evening, RH is expected to recover, with breezy conditions subsiding, tempering the fire weather threat. ..Squitieri.. 02/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 02/16/2019 - 13:25
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in southern New Mexico where downslope flow should increase temperatures to around 50 F with westerly winds around 15 mph and RH values of 10-20%. Otherwise, forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... Large scale upper-level troughing will persist across the southern CONUS throughout Day 2/Sunday. At the surface, a low will develop across the southern High Plains, promoting dry, breezy conditions across portions of the southwest CONUS, potentially supporting at least marginal conditions for fire spread where fine fuels are dry. ...Southern New Mexico into southwest Texas... As a weak surface low becomes established in eastern New Mexico/west Texas during the afternoon, 15-25 mph sustained westerly winds will ensue. Widespread 20% RH is also expected across the elevated delineation, though some model guidance hints at potentially lower values, mainly across portions of far southwest Texas. In addition, temperatures will be marginal during the afternoon, with highs barely reaching 50F across southern New Mexico. Still, the near-critical RH and very strong surface winds suggest at least an elevated fire weather threat will be present. Locally critical conditions are possible across southwest Texas, where 60F temps coincide with 20+ mph winds and RH possibly dropping to 15% for at least a few hours during the afternoon. Currently, the threat appears too brief to warrant a critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 02/16/2019 - 13:25
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Minor modifications were made to the elevated area in southern New Mexico where downslope flow should increase temperatures to around 50 F with westerly winds around 15 mph and RH values of 10-20%. Otherwise, forecast remains on track and please see the discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... Large scale upper-level troughing will persist across the southern CONUS throughout Day 2/Sunday. At the surface, a low will develop across the southern High Plains, promoting dry, breezy conditions across portions of the southwest CONUS, potentially supporting at least marginal conditions for fire spread where fine fuels are dry. ...Southern New Mexico into southwest Texas... As a weak surface low becomes established in eastern New Mexico/west Texas during the afternoon, 15-25 mph sustained westerly winds will ensue. Widespread 20% RH is also expected across the elevated delineation, though some model guidance hints at potentially lower values, mainly across portions of far southwest Texas. In addition, temperatures will be marginal during the afternoon, with highs barely reaching 50F across southern New Mexico. Still, the near-critical RH and very strong surface winds suggest at least an elevated fire weather threat will be present. Locally critical conditions are possible across southwest Texas, where 60F temps coincide with 20+ mph winds and RH possibly dropping to 15% for at least a few hours during the afternoon. Currently, the threat appears too brief to warrant a critical delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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