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Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 1 hour 16 min ago

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 12/11/2017 - 12:44
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of southern California - especially in terrain-favored areas where wind gusts will exceed 30 mph at times amidst a very dry and warm airmass. Additionally, portions of the northern and central High Plains will experience locally elevated fire weather conditions due to breezy westerly surface flow and areas of dry fuels. RH values in these areas should remain above critical thresholds in most areas, however, and the spatial extent of any elevated fire weather should be limited. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 12/11/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ ...Synopsis... The persistent mid-level, west-to-east ridge-trough pattern across the United States will be reinforced on Tuesday as a short-wave trough crests the ridge and quickly digs toward the base of the eastern trough during the afternoon and nighttime hours. This pattern will maintain/reinforce the dry airmass across the central Plains and the offshore flow across Southern California. The aforementioned short-wave trough may aid the strengthening of the surface-pressure gradient across Southern California late on Tuesday, which would increase wind speeds to near or above critical fire-weather thresholds. Will hold off on adding a critical area at this time owing to uncertainty in just how strong the winds end up being. Farther east, in the Plains, despite the very dry airmass in place, cooler temperatures and weaker winds on Tuesday will act to limit the overall fire-weather threat. However, if temperatures end up being warmer than forecast or winds are a bit stronger, elevated highlights will become necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 12/11/2017 - 12:44
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of southern California - especially in terrain-favored areas where wind gusts will exceed 30 mph at times amidst a very dry and warm airmass. Additionally, portions of the northern and central High Plains will experience locally elevated fire weather conditions due to breezy westerly surface flow and areas of dry fuels. RH values in these areas should remain above critical thresholds in most areas, however, and the spatial extent of any elevated fire weather should be limited. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 12/11/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ ...Synopsis... The persistent mid-level, west-to-east ridge-trough pattern across the United States will be reinforced on Tuesday as a short-wave trough crests the ridge and quickly digs toward the base of the eastern trough during the afternoon and nighttime hours. This pattern will maintain/reinforce the dry airmass across the central Plains and the offshore flow across Southern California. The aforementioned short-wave trough may aid the strengthening of the surface-pressure gradient across Southern California late on Tuesday, which would increase wind speeds to near or above critical fire-weather thresholds. Will hold off on adding a critical area at this time owing to uncertainty in just how strong the winds end up being. Farther east, in the Plains, despite the very dry airmass in place, cooler temperatures and weaker winds on Tuesday will act to limit the overall fire-weather threat. However, if temperatures end up being warmer than forecast or winds are a bit stronger, elevated highlights will become necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 12/11/2017 - 09:46
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed. Gusty offshore winds will continue in southern California - especially in terrain-favored areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties where 30+ mph wind gusts are possible. Farther east, a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, with critical thresholds (25-35 mph and 12-15% RH) being exceeded briefly in northeastern Colorado and vicinity before sunset. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 12/11/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will persist across the western United States, with a deep trough found across the East. A short-wave trough moving through the mid-level flow across the East will help drive a surface cold front south through the Plains. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will continue through Monday and Monday night, albeit not as strong as in previous days. Coincident with this, warm temperatures and a dry airmass will support minimum relative-humidity values falling into the single digits and teens across much of the area. Additionally, overnight recovery should remain poor, leaving little reprieve from the low relative humidity. The result will be elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central United States... Temperatures will quickly warm into the 60s and 70s ahead of a surface cold front moving southward through the Plains on Monday. Additionally, a very dry airmass in place as a result of several days of northerly winds across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico scouring out most of what little moisture existed. The dry airmass is borne out in evening (00Z) soundings across the Plains where near-record low precipitable-water values for this time of year are observed. The result will be warm temperatures and relative-humidity values falling to near-critical to critical levels. These warm, dry conditions will combine with winds in the 10-20 mph range to result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. Stronger winds may exist across northern portions of the highlighted area, but cold-air advection behind the front will allow for the relative humidity to increase, slightly offsetting the impacts of stronger winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 12/11/2017 - 09:46
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed. Gusty offshore winds will continue in southern California - especially in terrain-favored areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties where 30+ mph wind gusts are possible. Farther east, a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions will develop by mid-afternoon, with critical thresholds (25-35 mph and 12-15% RH) being exceeded briefly in northeastern Colorado and vicinity before sunset. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 12/11/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will persist across the western United States, with a deep trough found across the East. A short-wave trough moving through the mid-level flow across the East will help drive a surface cold front south through the Plains. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will continue through Monday and Monday night, albeit not as strong as in previous days. Coincident with this, warm temperatures and a dry airmass will support minimum relative-humidity values falling into the single digits and teens across much of the area. Additionally, overnight recovery should remain poor, leaving little reprieve from the low relative humidity. The result will be elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central United States... Temperatures will quickly warm into the 60s and 70s ahead of a surface cold front moving southward through the Plains on Monday. Additionally, a very dry airmass in place as a result of several days of northerly winds across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico scouring out most of what little moisture existed. The dry airmass is borne out in evening (00Z) soundings across the Plains where near-record low precipitable-water values for this time of year are observed. The result will be warm temperatures and relative-humidity values falling to near-critical to critical levels. These warm, dry conditions will combine with winds in the 10-20 mph range to result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. Stronger winds may exist across northern portions of the highlighted area, but cold-air advection behind the front will allow for the relative humidity to increase, slightly offsetting the impacts of stronger winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 12/11/2017 - 01:39
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... The persistent mid-level, west-to-east ridge-trough pattern across the United States will be reinforced on Tuesday as a short-wave trough crests the ridge and quickly digs toward the base of the eastern trough during the afternoon and nighttime hours. This pattern will maintain/reinforce the dry airmass across the central Plains and the offshore flow across Southern California. The aforementioned short-wave trough may aid the strengthening of the surface-pressure gradient across Southern California late on Tuesday, which would increase wind speeds to near or above critical fire-weather thresholds. Will hold off on adding a critical area at this time owing to uncertainty in just how strong the winds end up being. Farther east, in the Plains, despite the very dry airmass in place, cooler temperatures and weaker winds on Tuesday will act to limit the overall fire-weather threat. However, if temperatures end up being warmer than forecast or winds are a bit stronger, elevated highlights will become necessary. ..Marsh.. 12/11/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 12/11/2017 - 01:39
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... The persistent mid-level, west-to-east ridge-trough pattern across the United States will be reinforced on Tuesday as a short-wave trough crests the ridge and quickly digs toward the base of the eastern trough during the afternoon and nighttime hours. This pattern will maintain/reinforce the dry airmass across the central Plains and the offshore flow across Southern California. The aforementioned short-wave trough may aid the strengthening of the surface-pressure gradient across Southern California late on Tuesday, which would increase wind speeds to near or above critical fire-weather thresholds. Will hold off on adding a critical area at this time owing to uncertainty in just how strong the winds end up being. Farther east, in the Plains, despite the very dry airmass in place, cooler temperatures and weaker winds on Tuesday will act to limit the overall fire-weather threat. However, if temperatures end up being warmer than forecast or winds are a bit stronger, elevated highlights will become necessary. ..Marsh.. 12/11/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 12/11/2017 - 01:38
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will persist across the western United States, with a deep trough found across the East. A short-wave trough moving through the mid-level flow across the East will help drive a surface cold front south through the Plains. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will continue through Monday and Monday night, albeit not as strong as in previous days. Coincident with this, warm temperatures and a dry airmass will support minimum relative-humidity values falling into the single digits and teens across much of the area. Additionally, overnight recovery should remain poor, leaving little reprieve from the low relative humidity. The result will be elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central United States... Temperatures will quickly warm into the 60s and 70s ahead of a surface cold front moving southward through the Plains on Monday. Additionally, a very dry airmass in place as a result of several days of northerly winds across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico scouring out most of what little moisture existed. The dry airmass is borne out in evening (00Z) soundings across the Plains where near-record low precipitable-water values for this time of year are observed. The result will be warm temperatures and relative-humidity values falling to near-critical to critical levels. These warm, dry conditions will combine with winds in the 10-20 mph range to result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. Stronger winds may exist across northern portions of the highlighted area, but cold-air advection behind the front will allow for the relative humidity to increase, slightly offsetting the impacts of stronger winds. ..Marsh.. 12/11/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 12/11/2017 - 01:38
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will persist across the western United States, with a deep trough found across the East. A short-wave trough moving through the mid-level flow across the East will help drive a surface cold front south through the Plains. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will continue through Monday and Monday night, albeit not as strong as in previous days. Coincident with this, warm temperatures and a dry airmass will support minimum relative-humidity values falling into the single digits and teens across much of the area. Additionally, overnight recovery should remain poor, leaving little reprieve from the low relative humidity. The result will be elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Central United States... Temperatures will quickly warm into the 60s and 70s ahead of a surface cold front moving southward through the Plains on Monday. Additionally, a very dry airmass in place as a result of several days of northerly winds across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico scouring out most of what little moisture existed. The dry airmass is borne out in evening (00Z) soundings across the Plains where near-record low precipitable-water values for this time of year are observed. The result will be warm temperatures and relative-humidity values falling to near-critical to critical levels. These warm, dry conditions will combine with winds in the 10-20 mph range to result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. Stronger winds may exist across northern portions of the highlighted area, but cold-air advection behind the front will allow for the relative humidity to increase, slightly offsetting the impacts of stronger winds. ..Marsh.. 12/11/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 12/10/2017 - 13:45
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of southern California on Monday. Although lighter surface winds (10-20 mph) will be the key limiting factor for a higher fire weather threat, locally critical wind gusts will occur especially in terrain-favored areas due to the persistent offshore gradient. High-impact fire weather concerns remain likely, however, given ongoing large fires and very dry fuel states. Elsewhere, the elevated delineation across the central Plains has been extended eastward to include more of eastern Kansas. Here, gusty northwesterly winds will exceed 30 mph at times near the I-70 corridor (slightly weaker with southward extent) and RH values will fall into the 20-27% range. Fuels are also dry across the region and supportive of rapid fire spread. Spotty elevated fire weather conditions may also extend as far east as southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, although lighter surface flow and somewhat higher RH in those areas preclude any highlights for this outlook. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 12/10/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/ ...Synopsis... Ridging is expected to remain in place over the western CONUS through Day 2/Monday, while a large-scale trough persists over the central/eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, an embedded shortwave trough (and associated mid-level speed maxima) is forecast to ride the western periphery of the larger-scale trough and shift from the northern/central Plains into the southeastern CONUS by the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure -- which has been entrenched over the Great Basin for several days -- will persist, although it will be weaker than previous days. ...Portions of Southern CA... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast Day 2/Monday, as modest weakening of the aforementioned surface high allows winds speeds to weaken a bit from previous days. Generally, sustained wind speeds of 10-20 mph (with higher gusts) are expected. However, there is some potential for stronger winds to occur early Day 2/Monday morning. Despite the somewhat weaker winds, critical RH values (and extremely dry fuels) are anticipated, as the stagnant dry low-level air mass remains in place. A Critical area could be need for portions of Southern CA if trends in guidance suggest stronger wind speeds than are currently anticipated. ...Portions of western NE, eastern CO, western KS, northeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and western OK... Warming of a dry air mass is expected to yield minimum RH values around 15-25% (locally lower) during the afternoon amidst dry/dormant fuels. Additionally, the presence of the aforementioned mid-level speed maxima combined with efficient mixing during the afternoon will foster sustained winds speeds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts). These conditions support Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. If trends in guidance suggest stronger wind speeds and/or a greater degree of warming/drying, then a Critical area may be needed. ...Portions of Florida... A dry air mass is forecast to continue spreading over the area Day 2/Monday, with minimum RH values around 25-35% developing during the afternoon over the interior. Current expectation is that light winds (e.g., generally less than 10 mph) coupled with relatively unfavorable fuels -- owing to recent precipitation -- are expected to hinder a more robust fire weather threat. However, if trends in guidance suggest stronger winds over the area, then a fire weather area may be needed in future updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 12/10/2017 - 09:52
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The elevated area across the central plains has been expanded eastward to include more of central South Dakota, central Nebraska, and central Kansas. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests that critical RH values will exist for at least an hour or two this afternoon amidst 10-20 mph northwesterly surface flow and full sunshine during the afternoon. Farther northwest into central Montana, conditions will also reach elevated criteria for a couple of hours, although concerns regarding fuel dryness preclude any highlights at this time. Gusty easterly/northeasterly surface winds will exceed critical criteria in many areas of southern California today as a long-duration Santa Ana event persists. A critical fire weather delineation remains in place for that region. See the previous outlook for more information. ..Cook.. 12/10/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2017/ ...Synopsis... Overall synoptic pattern will change very little today, with ridging over the western CONUS and broad troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough (with associated speed maxima) is forecast to dive southward over the northern High Plains late today. Meanwhile, the surface high over the Great Basin -- which has been ensconced over the area for several days -- will remain quasi-stationary while gradually weakening later tonight. ...Portions of Southern CA... The extended Santa Ana offshore wind event is expected to persist Sunday, as the aforementioned surface high over the Great Basin promotes gusty easterly/northeasterly winds. Sustained wind speeds are forecast to generally remain around 20-30 mph, however, stronger gusts around 40-55 mph are possible (especially along the higher terrain). The low-level air mass will change little from previous days, with very dry air (RH values of 5-15%) remaining entrenched over the area. When combined with very dry fuels, these meteorological conditions will promote Critical/Elevated fire weather conditions. While wind speeds are forecast to gradually weaken tonight -- owing to a weakening of the aforementioned surface high and associated pressure gradient -- they will remain breezy enough to keep Elevated to locally Critical conditions through the overnight. ...Portions of eastern WY, southwest SD, western NE, eastern CO, western KS, OK/TX Panhandle, northwest TX, and western OK... A very dry antecedent air mass is forecast to remain in place today, with RH values of 5-15% common over the area. While latest high resolution guidance continues to suggest sustained wind speeds will be only marginal for fire weather concerns (e.g., 10-15 mph), very dry fuels coupled with the dry air mass supports maintenance of the Elevated fire weather area. While greater sustained wind speeds may materialize over the northern High Plains -- due to the proximity of aforementioned mid-level speed maxima -- poor timing with the diurnal heating cycle and cooler temperatures over the area (and thus more marginal RH values) should keep fire weather concerns Elevated to locally Critical. ...Portions of central MT... While gusty westerly winds around 10-20 mph are expected this afternoon and RH values may flirt with Elevated criteria for a few hours, uncertainty regarding the degree of low-level warming/drying is currently too large to introduce a fire weather area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 12/10/2017 - 01:34
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ridging is expected to remain in place over the western CONUS through Day 2/Monday, while a large-scale trough persists over the central/eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, an embedded shortwave trough (and associated mid-level speed maxima) is forecast to ride the western periphery of the larger-scale trough and shift from the northern/central Plains into the southeastern CONUS by the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure -- which has been entrenched over the Great Basin for several days -- will persist, although it will be weaker than previous days. ...Portions of Southern CA... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast Day 2/Monday, as modest weakening of the aforementioned surface high allows winds speeds to weaken a bit from previous days. Generally, sustained wind speeds of 10-20 mph (with higher gusts) are expected. However, there is some potential for stronger winds to occur early Day 2/Monday morning. Despite the somewhat weaker winds, critical RH values (and extremely dry fuels) are anticipated, as the stagnant dry low-level air mass remains in place. A Critical area could be need for portions of Southern CA if trends in guidance suggest stronger wind speeds than are currently anticipated. ...Portions of western NE, eastern CO, western KS, northeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and western OK... Warming of a dry air mass is expected to yield minimum RH values around 15-25% (locally lower) during the afternoon amidst dry/dormant fuels. Additionally, the presence of the aforementioned mid-level speed maxima combined with efficient mixing during the afternoon will foster sustained winds speeds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts). These conditions support Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. If trends in guidance suggest stronger wind speeds and/or a greater degree of warming/drying, then a Critical area may be needed. ...Portions of Florida... A dry air mass is forecast to continue spreading over the area Day 2/Monday, with minimum RH values around 25-35% developing during the afternoon over the interior. Current expectation is that light winds (e.g., generally less than 10 mph) coupled with relatively unfavorable fuels -- owing to recent precipitation -- are expected to hinder a more robust fire weather threat. However, if trends in guidance suggest stronger winds over the area, then a fire weather area may be needed in future updates. ..Elliott.. 12/10/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sun, 12/10/2017 - 01:34
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ridging is expected to remain in place over the western CONUS through Day 2/Monday, while a large-scale trough persists over the central/eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, an embedded shortwave trough (and associated mid-level speed maxima) is forecast to ride the western periphery of the larger-scale trough and shift from the northern/central Plains into the southeastern CONUS by the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure -- which has been entrenched over the Great Basin for several days -- will persist, although it will be weaker than previous days. ...Portions of Southern CA... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast Day 2/Monday, as modest weakening of the aforementioned surface high allows winds speeds to weaken a bit from previous days. Generally, sustained wind speeds of 10-20 mph (with higher gusts) are expected. However, there is some potential for stronger winds to occur early Day 2/Monday morning. Despite the somewhat weaker winds, critical RH values (and extremely dry fuels) are anticipated, as the stagnant dry low-level air mass remains in place. A Critical area could be need for portions of Southern CA if trends in guidance suggest stronger wind speeds than are currently anticipated. ...Portions of western NE, eastern CO, western KS, northeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and western OK... Warming of a dry air mass is expected to yield minimum RH values around 15-25% (locally lower) during the afternoon amidst dry/dormant fuels. Additionally, the presence of the aforementioned mid-level speed maxima combined with efficient mixing during the afternoon will foster sustained winds speeds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts). These conditions support Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. If trends in guidance suggest stronger wind speeds and/or a greater degree of warming/drying, then a Critical area may be needed. ...Portions of Florida... A dry air mass is forecast to continue spreading over the area Day 2/Monday, with minimum RH values around 25-35% developing during the afternoon over the interior. Current expectation is that light winds (e.g., generally less than 10 mph) coupled with relatively unfavorable fuels -- owing to recent precipitation -- are expected to hinder a more robust fire weather threat. However, if trends in guidance suggest stronger winds over the area, then a fire weather area may be needed in future updates. ..Elliott.. 12/10/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 12/09/2017 - 23:57
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2017 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Overall synoptic pattern will change very little today, with ridging over the western CONUS and broad troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough (with associated speed maxima) is forecast to dive southward over the northern High Plains late today. Meanwhile, the surface high over the Great Basin -- which has been ensconced over the area for several days -- will remain quasi-stationary while gradually weakening later tonight. ...Portions of Southern CA... The extended Santa Ana offshore wind event is expected to persist Sunday, as the aforementioned surface high over the Great Basin promotes gusty easterly/northeasterly winds. Sustained wind speeds are forecast to generally remain around 20-30 mph, however, stronger gusts around 40-55 mph are possible (especially along the higher terrain). The low-level air mass will change little from previous days, with very dry air (RH values of 5-15%) remaining entrenched over the area. When combined with very dry fuels, these meteorological conditions will promote Critical/Elevated fire weather conditions. While wind speeds are forecast to gradually weaken tonight -- owing to a weakening of the aforementioned surface high and associated pressure gradient -- they will remain breezy enough to keep Elevated to locally Critical conditions through the overnight. ...Portions of eastern WY, southwest SD, western NE, eastern CO, western KS, OK/TX Panhandle, northwest TX, and western OK... A very dry antecedent air mass is forecast to remain in place today, with RH values of 5-15% common over the area. While latest high resolution guidance continues to suggest sustained wind speeds will be only marginal for fire weather concerns (e.g., 10-15 mph), very dry fuels coupled with the dry air mass supports maintenance of the Elevated fire weather area. While greater sustained wind speeds may materialize over the northern High Plains -- due to the proximity of aforementioned mid-level speed maxima -- poor timing with the diurnal heating cycle and cooler temperatures over the area (and thus more marginal RH values) should keep fire weather concerns Elevated to locally Critical. ...Portions of central MT... While gusty westerly winds around 10-20 mph are expected this afternoon and RH values may flirt with Elevated criteria for a few hours, uncertainty regarding the degree of low-level warming/drying is currently too large to introduce a fire weather area. ..Elliott.. 12/10/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 12/09/2017 - 23:57
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2017 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Overall synoptic pattern will change very little today, with ridging over the western CONUS and broad troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough (with associated speed maxima) is forecast to dive southward over the northern High Plains late today. Meanwhile, the surface high over the Great Basin -- which has been ensconced over the area for several days -- will remain quasi-stationary while gradually weakening later tonight. ...Portions of Southern CA... The extended Santa Ana offshore wind event is expected to persist Sunday, as the aforementioned surface high over the Great Basin promotes gusty easterly/northeasterly winds. Sustained wind speeds are forecast to generally remain around 20-30 mph, however, stronger gusts around 40-55 mph are possible (especially along the higher terrain). The low-level air mass will change little from previous days, with very dry air (RH values of 5-15%) remaining entrenched over the area. When combined with very dry fuels, these meteorological conditions will promote Critical/Elevated fire weather conditions. While wind speeds are forecast to gradually weaken tonight -- owing to a weakening of the aforementioned surface high and associated pressure gradient -- they will remain breezy enough to keep Elevated to locally Critical conditions through the overnight. ...Portions of eastern WY, southwest SD, western NE, eastern CO, western KS, OK/TX Panhandle, northwest TX, and western OK... A very dry antecedent air mass is forecast to remain in place today, with RH values of 5-15% common over the area. While latest high resolution guidance continues to suggest sustained wind speeds will be only marginal for fire weather concerns (e.g., 10-15 mph), very dry fuels coupled with the dry air mass supports maintenance of the Elevated fire weather area. While greater sustained wind speeds may materialize over the northern High Plains -- due to the proximity of aforementioned mid-level speed maxima -- poor timing with the diurnal heating cycle and cooler temperatures over the area (and thus more marginal RH values) should keep fire weather concerns Elevated to locally Critical. ...Portions of central MT... While gusty westerly winds around 10-20 mph are expected this afternoon and RH values may flirt with Elevated criteria for a few hours, uncertainty regarding the degree of low-level warming/drying is currently too large to introduce a fire weather area. ..Elliott.. 12/10/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 12/09/2017 - 14:01
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2017 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Southern California... The current forecast looks to be on track. Only a minor change in the critical area -- to expand northwest along the Santa Barbara mountains -- was made. Winds overnight tonight into the first part of the morning should support critical conditions here. ...Central Plains... Similar to today, very dry conditions are expected across the area. Minimum relative humidity will be in the single digits in favored locations to more widespread low 20s. The biggest concerns will be the strength of the winds. Most guidance suggest winds remaining in the 10-15 mph range, below critical thresholds. However, given the dry conditions, cured fuels, and increasing ERCs, felt elevated fire-weather conditions will be achieved. ..Marsh.. 12/09/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2017/ ...Synopsis... Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected Day 2/Sunday, with ridging across the western CONUS and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. Main change is the presence of a mid-level cyclone, which is forecast to shift from the eastern Pacific toward the Baja Peninsula through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the Great Basin and northern Rockies, with some strengthening anticipated. ...Portions of southern California... The prevailing Santa Ana offshore wind event is expected to continue, as the aforementioned surface high over the Great Basin promotes gusty easterly/northeasterly winds. Modest strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is forecast early Day 2/Sunday, with sustained wind speeds approaching 25-30 mph (with higher gusts). Meanwhile, little change in the antecedently dry air mass is anticipated, with RH values remaining around 5-15%. Thus, Critical/Elevated (and some spotty Extremely Critical) fire weather conditions should persist across the area through Day 2/Sunday night. ...Portions of the central/southern Plains... While a very dry low-level air mass is forecast across the area (e.g., minimum RH values at or below 15%), sustained surface winds are expected to remain around 10-15 mph, which precludes introduction of a fire weather area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 12/09/2017 - 14:01
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2017 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Southern California... The current forecast looks to be on track. Only a minor change in the critical area -- to expand northwest along the Santa Barbara mountains -- was made. Winds overnight tonight into the first part of the morning should support critical conditions here. ...Central Plains... Similar to today, very dry conditions are expected across the area. Minimum relative humidity will be in the single digits in favored locations to more widespread low 20s. The biggest concerns will be the strength of the winds. Most guidance suggest winds remaining in the 10-15 mph range, below critical thresholds. However, given the dry conditions, cured fuels, and increasing ERCs, felt elevated fire-weather conditions will be achieved. ..Marsh.. 12/09/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2017/ ...Synopsis... Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected Day 2/Sunday, with ridging across the western CONUS and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. Main change is the presence of a mid-level cyclone, which is forecast to shift from the eastern Pacific toward the Baja Peninsula through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the Great Basin and northern Rockies, with some strengthening anticipated. ...Portions of southern California... The prevailing Santa Ana offshore wind event is expected to continue, as the aforementioned surface high over the Great Basin promotes gusty easterly/northeasterly winds. Modest strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is forecast early Day 2/Sunday, with sustained wind speeds approaching 25-30 mph (with higher gusts). Meanwhile, little change in the antecedently dry air mass is anticipated, with RH values remaining around 5-15%. Thus, Critical/Elevated (and some spotty Extremely Critical) fire weather conditions should persist across the area through Day 2/Sunday night. ...Portions of the central/southern Plains... While a very dry low-level air mass is forecast across the area (e.g., minimum RH values at or below 15%), sustained surface winds are expected to remain around 10-15 mph, which precludes introduction of a fire weather area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 12/09/2017 - 10:55
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2017 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... No changes were made to the fire-weather highlights across southern California. Off shore flow will continue into Sunday. Relative humidity will continue to be in the single digits and teens in the presence of winds in excess of 20 mph (with gusts nearing 60 mph in favored areas). The elevated areas across the High Plains was expanded southeastward. Here, a very dry airmass remains in place, with afternoon minimum relative humidity falling into the teens. Sustained winds in the 10-20 mph range (and higher gusts) will support elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ..Marsh.. 12/09/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2017/ ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to build/strengthen over the western CONUS today, while a large-scale trough shifts eastward over the eastern/northeastern CONUS. At the surface, the persistent area of high pressure anchored over the northern Rockies and Great Basin will remain in place, with little change in its strength or position. ...Portions of Southern California... The long-duration Santa Ana offshore wind event is forecast to continue today. Critical/Elevated fire weather conditions are expected, as the aforementioned surface high over the Great Basin promotes easterly/northeasterly sustained surface winds of around 20-30 mph (with stronger gusts over the higher terrain). Additionally, minimum RH values around 5-15% are forecast, as a stubborn dry antecedent low-level air mass remains in place. Some strengthening of the pressure gradient is expected later tonight, which will further enhance the overnight fire weather threat (especially considering that nocturnal RH recoveries will be negligible). These meteorological conditions, combined with extremely dry fuels over the area, support maintenance of the Elevated/Critical fire weather area. ...Portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado... Breezy northwesterly winds are expected to mix to the surface this afternoon with sustained surface winds around 15-20 mph. While there is some uncertainty in the degree of boundary layer warming/drying -- owing to large model spread -- high resolution guidance supports the introduction of an Elevated fire weather area, as temperatures near 50F will yield minimum RH values of around 15% for a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 12/09/2017 - 10:55
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2017 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... No changes were made to the fire-weather highlights across southern California. Off shore flow will continue into Sunday. Relative humidity will continue to be in the single digits and teens in the presence of winds in excess of 20 mph (with gusts nearing 60 mph in favored areas). The elevated areas across the High Plains was expanded southeastward. Here, a very dry airmass remains in place, with afternoon minimum relative humidity falling into the teens. Sustained winds in the 10-20 mph range (and higher gusts) will support elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the afternoon. ..Marsh.. 12/09/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2017/ ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to build/strengthen over the western CONUS today, while a large-scale trough shifts eastward over the eastern/northeastern CONUS. At the surface, the persistent area of high pressure anchored over the northern Rockies and Great Basin will remain in place, with little change in its strength or position. ...Portions of Southern California... The long-duration Santa Ana offshore wind event is forecast to continue today. Critical/Elevated fire weather conditions are expected, as the aforementioned surface high over the Great Basin promotes easterly/northeasterly sustained surface winds of around 20-30 mph (with stronger gusts over the higher terrain). Additionally, minimum RH values around 5-15% are forecast, as a stubborn dry antecedent low-level air mass remains in place. Some strengthening of the pressure gradient is expected later tonight, which will further enhance the overnight fire weather threat (especially considering that nocturnal RH recoveries will be negligible). These meteorological conditions, combined with extremely dry fuels over the area, support maintenance of the Elevated/Critical fire weather area. ...Portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado... Breezy northwesterly winds are expected to mix to the surface this afternoon with sustained surface winds around 15-20 mph. While there is some uncertainty in the degree of boundary layer warming/drying -- owing to large model spread -- high resolution guidance supports the introduction of an Elevated fire weather area, as temperatures near 50F will yield minimum RH values of around 15% for a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 12/09/2017 - 01:32
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2017 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected Day 2/Sunday, with ridging across the western CONUS and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. Main change is the presence of a mid-level cyclone, which is forecast to shift from the eastern Pacific toward the Baja Peninsula through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the Great Basin and northern Rockies, with some strengthening anticipated. ...Portions of southern California... The prevailing Santa Ana offshore wind event is expected to continue, as the aforementioned surface high over the Great Basin promotes gusty easterly/northeasterly winds. Modest strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is forecast early Day 2/Sunday, with sustained wind speeds approaching 25-30 mph (with higher gusts). Meanwhile, little change in the antecedently dry air mass is anticipated, with RH values remaining around 5-15%. Thus, Critical/Elevated (and some spotty Extremely Critical) fire weather conditions should persist across the area through Day 2/Sunday night. ...Portions of the central/southern Plains... While a very dry low-level air mass is forecast across the area (e.g., minimum RH values at or below 15%), sustained surface winds are expected to remain around 10-15 mph, which precludes introduction of a fire weather area. ..Elliott.. 12/09/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 12/09/2017 - 01:30
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2017 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to build/strengthen over the western CONUS today, while a large-scale trough shifts eastward over the eastern/northeastern CONUS. At the surface, the persistent area of high pressure anchored over the northern Rockies and Great Basin will remain in place, with little change in its strength or position. ...Portions of Southern California... The long-duration Santa Ana offshore wind event is forecast to continue today. Critical/Elevated fire weather conditions are expected, as the aforementioned surface high over the Great Basin promotes easterly/northeasterly sustained surface winds of around 20-30 mph (with stronger gusts over the higher terrain). Additionally, minimum RH values around 5-15% are forecast, as a stubborn dry antecedent low-level air mass remains in place. Some strengthening of the pressure gradient is expected later tonight, which will further enhance the overnight fire weather threat (especially considering that nocturnal RH recoveries will be negligible). These meteorological conditions, combined with extremely dry fuels over the area, support maintenance of the Elevated/Critical fire weather area. ...Portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado... Breezy northwesterly winds are expected to mix to the surface this afternoon with sustained surface winds around 15-20 mph. While there is some uncertainty in the degree of boundary layer warming/drying -- owing to large model spread -- high resolution guidance supports the introduction of an Elevated fire weather area, as temperatures near 50F will yield minimum RH values of around 15% for a few hours. ..Elliott.. 12/09/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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