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Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 13 min 35 sec ago

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 32 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The ongoing forecast is on track. A few thunderstorms will develop late in the evening across central/eastern Oregon and vicinity, with dry lightning strikes possible outside of any wetting cores. Additionally, locally elevated fire weather conditions will develop in the lee of the Sierras (far western Nevada and far northeastern California) during peak heating hours as surface winds increase to around 15 mph amidst critically low (<15%) RH. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Cook.. 08/18/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018/ ...Synopsis... Another mid/upper-level trough is expected to progress eastward into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as the downstream system moves slowly eastward into the central Plains. The primary fire weather concern will be the potential for thunderstorm development ahead of the trough across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Northern/Central OR...Central ID...Far Southeast WA...Western MT... After a relatively warm and dry day across portions of the interior Northwest, increasing large-scale ascent and midlevel moisture will support the potential for elevated, high-based thunderstorm development across portions of central/northern OR and adjacent parts of southeast WA and central ID by early evening. Relatively fast storm motions and dry subcloud layers will limit rainfall potential with these storms, resulting in an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible across parts of eastern ID into western MT by late afternoon, largely driven by sufficient instability and terrain-related circulations. This area is forecast to be somewhat cooler and more moist compared to further west, and storm motions will likely be somewhat slower, so this region has not been included within an isolated dry-thunderstorm delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 32 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The ongoing forecast is on track. A few thunderstorms will develop late in the evening across central/eastern Oregon and vicinity, with dry lightning strikes possible outside of any wetting cores. Additionally, locally elevated fire weather conditions will develop in the lee of the Sierras (far western Nevada and far northeastern California) during peak heating hours as surface winds increase to around 15 mph amidst critically low (<15%) RH. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Cook.. 08/18/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018/ ...Synopsis... Another mid/upper-level trough is expected to progress eastward into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as the downstream system moves slowly eastward into the central Plains. The primary fire weather concern will be the potential for thunderstorm development ahead of the trough across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Northern/Central OR...Central ID...Far Southeast WA...Western MT... After a relatively warm and dry day across portions of the interior Northwest, increasing large-scale ascent and midlevel moisture will support the potential for elevated, high-based thunderstorm development across portions of central/northern OR and adjacent parts of southeast WA and central ID by early evening. Relatively fast storm motions and dry subcloud layers will limit rainfall potential with these storms, resulting in an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible across parts of eastern ID into western MT by late afternoon, largely driven by sufficient instability and terrain-related circulations. This area is forecast to be somewhat cooler and more moist compared to further west, and storm motions will likely be somewhat slower, so this region has not been included within an isolated dry-thunderstorm delineation at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

12 hours 24 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 08/18/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains today. Drier and somewhat cooler conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern Rockies, with the greatest thunderstorm coverage expected to shift eastward out of the northern Rockies into portions of the northern High Plains. ...Southern ID...Northern/Central UT...Southwest WY... Modestly enhanced low-level westerly flow is expected to develop this afternoon from southern ID into portions of UT and southwest WY, in the wake of the eastward-moving upper trough. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-20% will result in an elevated fire weather threat, with locally critical conditions possible in terrain-favored locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

12 hours 24 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 08/18/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains today. Drier and somewhat cooler conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern Rockies, with the greatest thunderstorm coverage expected to shift eastward out of the northern Rockies into portions of the northern High Plains. ...Southern ID...Northern/Central UT...Southwest WY... Modestly enhanced low-level westerly flow is expected to develop this afternoon from southern ID into portions of UT and southwest WY, in the wake of the eastward-moving upper trough. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-20% will result in an elevated fire weather threat, with locally critical conditions possible in terrain-favored locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

22 hours 4 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Another mid/upper-level trough is expected to progress eastward into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as the downstream system moves slowly eastward into the central Plains. The primary fire weather concern will be the potential for thunderstorm development ahead of the trough across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Northern/Central OR...Central ID...Far Southeast WA...Western MT... After a relatively warm and dry day across portions of the interior Northwest, increasing large-scale ascent and midlevel moisture will support the potential for elevated, high-based thunderstorm development across portions of central/northern OR and adjacent parts of southeast WA and central ID by early evening. Relatively fast storm motions and dry subcloud layers will limit rainfall potential with these storms, resulting in an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible across parts of eastern ID into western MT by late afternoon, largely driven by sufficient instability and terrain-related circulations. This area is forecast to be somewhat cooler and more moist compared to further west, and storm motions will likely be somewhat slower, so this region has not been included within an isolated dry-thunderstorm delineation at this time. ..Dean.. 08/18/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

22 hours 4 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Another mid/upper-level trough is expected to progress eastward into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as the downstream system moves slowly eastward into the central Plains. The primary fire weather concern will be the potential for thunderstorm development ahead of the trough across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Northern/Central OR...Central ID...Far Southeast WA...Western MT... After a relatively warm and dry day across portions of the interior Northwest, increasing large-scale ascent and midlevel moisture will support the potential for elevated, high-based thunderstorm development across portions of central/northern OR and adjacent parts of southeast WA and central ID by early evening. Relatively fast storm motions and dry subcloud layers will limit rainfall potential with these storms, resulting in an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible across parts of eastern ID into western MT by late afternoon, largely driven by sufficient instability and terrain-related circulations. This area is forecast to be somewhat cooler and more moist compared to further west, and storm motions will likely be somewhat slower, so this region has not been included within an isolated dry-thunderstorm delineation at this time. ..Dean.. 08/18/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

22 hours 7 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains today. Drier and somewhat cooler conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern Rockies, with the greatest thunderstorm coverage expected to shift eastward out of the northern Rockies into portions of the northern High Plains. ...Southern ID...Northern/Central UT...Southwest WY... Modestly enhanced low-level westerly flow is expected to develop this afternoon from southern ID into portions of UT and southwest WY, in the wake of the eastward-moving upper trough. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph in conjunction with minimum RH values of 10-20% will result in an elevated fire weather threat, with locally critical conditions possible in terrain-favored locations. ..Dean.. 08/18/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 08/17/2018 - 14:40
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track. Locally/spotty elevated fire weather conditions are possible in southern Idaho through the afternoon. Elsewhere, the thunderstorm threat will be substantially lower as mid/upper ridging builds across the Pacific Northwest. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 08/17/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains on Saturday. Drier and somewhat cooler conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern Rockies. Relatively weak low-level flow is expected to generally limit the fire-weather threat. ...Southern ID...Northern UT...Southwest WY... Locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of the Snake River Plain on Saturday, potentially extending into parts of northern UT/southwest WY, as modest low-level westerly flow develops in the wake of the upper trough and RH values drop into the 10-25% range. However, given uncertainty regarding the strength of the winds across the Snake River Plain, and the extent of RH reduction across southwest WY, no Elevated delineation has been made at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 08/17/2018 - 14:40
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track. Locally/spotty elevated fire weather conditions are possible in southern Idaho through the afternoon. Elsewhere, the thunderstorm threat will be substantially lower as mid/upper ridging builds across the Pacific Northwest. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 08/17/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains on Saturday. Drier and somewhat cooler conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern Rockies. Relatively weak low-level flow is expected to generally limit the fire-weather threat. ...Southern ID...Northern UT...Southwest WY... Locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of the Snake River Plain on Saturday, potentially extending into parts of northern UT/southwest WY, as modest low-level westerly flow develops in the wake of the upper trough and RH values drop into the 10-25% range. However, given uncertainty regarding the strength of the winds across the Snake River Plain, and the extent of RH reduction across southwest WY, no Elevated delineation has been made at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 08/17/2018 - 11:14
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The ongoing forecast is generally on track. A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to support scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms across the Northwest and northern Rockies, with profiles supporting dry lightning strikes outside of wetting thunderstorm cores. Additionally, areas of elevated fire weather conditions will exist from the Columbia River Basin region southward toward the lee of the Sierras, with delineations highlighting areas most likely to experience these conditions. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 08/17/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to move eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies today, bringing an increase in midlevel flow and also the potential for scattered thunderstorms. At the surface, a modestly enhanced pressure gradient will develop across portions of the Columbia River basin in the wake of the upper trough. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern Rockies... Thunderstorms may be ongoing this morning across portions of ID/eastern OR/eastern WA, with additional development expected this afternoon/evening expanding into a larger portion of the northern Rockies as the upper trough moves eastward. At least scattered coverage of thunderstorms is expected, with PW values sufficient for some wetting rainfall. However, given the potential for substantial lightning activity across a region of receptive fuels, the threat for ignitions is sufficient to maintain an isolated dry-thunderstorm delineation across this area. ...Columbia River Gorge... Elevated conditions are possible across the Columbia River Gorge and vicinity, with the increased pressure gradient resulting in winds of 15-20 mph as RH values drop below 20%. ...Northern Great Basin... A modest increase in low-to-midlevel flow is expected across parts of the northern Great Basin in the wake of the upper trough passing to the north. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph combined with RH values dropping below 15% will result in elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 08/17/2018 - 11:14
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The ongoing forecast is generally on track. A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to support scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms across the Northwest and northern Rockies, with profiles supporting dry lightning strikes outside of wetting thunderstorm cores. Additionally, areas of elevated fire weather conditions will exist from the Columbia River Basin region southward toward the lee of the Sierras, with delineations highlighting areas most likely to experience these conditions. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 08/17/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to move eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies today, bringing an increase in midlevel flow and also the potential for scattered thunderstorms. At the surface, a modestly enhanced pressure gradient will develop across portions of the Columbia River basin in the wake of the upper trough. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern Rockies... Thunderstorms may be ongoing this morning across portions of ID/eastern OR/eastern WA, with additional development expected this afternoon/evening expanding into a larger portion of the northern Rockies as the upper trough moves eastward. At least scattered coverage of thunderstorms is expected, with PW values sufficient for some wetting rainfall. However, given the potential for substantial lightning activity across a region of receptive fuels, the threat for ignitions is sufficient to maintain an isolated dry-thunderstorm delineation across this area. ...Columbia River Gorge... Elevated conditions are possible across the Columbia River Gorge and vicinity, with the increased pressure gradient resulting in winds of 15-20 mph as RH values drop below 20%. ...Northern Great Basin... A modest increase in low-to-midlevel flow is expected across parts of the northern Great Basin in the wake of the upper trough passing to the north. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph combined with RH values dropping below 15% will result in elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 08/17/2018 - 01:45
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains on Saturday. Drier and somewhat cooler conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front across the northern Rockies. Relatively weak low-level flow is expected to generally limit the fire-weather threat. ...Southern ID...Northern UT...Southwest WY... Locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of the Snake River Plain on Saturday, potentially extending into parts of northern UT/southwest WY, as modest low-level westerly flow develops in the wake of the upper trough and RH values drop into the 10-25% range. However, given uncertainty regarding the strength of the winds across the Snake River Plain, and the extent of RH reduction across southwest WY, no Elevated delineation has been made at this time. ..Dean.. 08/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 08/17/2018 - 01:43
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to move eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies today, bringing an increase in midlevel flow and also the potential for scattered thunderstorms. At the surface, a modestly enhanced pressure gradient will develop across portions of the Columbia River basin in the wake of the upper trough. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern Rockies... Thunderstorms may be ongoing this morning across portions of ID/eastern OR/eastern WA, with additional development expected this afternoon/evening expanding into a larger portion of the northern Rockies as the upper trough moves eastward. At least scattered coverage of thunderstorms is expected, with PW values sufficient for some wetting rainfall. However, given the potential for substantial lightning activity across a region of receptive fuels, the threat for ignitions is sufficient to maintain an isolated dry-thunderstorm delineation across this area. ...Columbia River Gorge... Elevated conditions are possible across the Columbia River Gorge and vicinity, with the increased pressure gradient resulting in winds of 15-20 mph as RH values drop below 20%. ...Northern Great Basin... A modest increase in low-to-midlevel flow is expected across parts of the northern Great Basin in the wake of the upper trough passing to the north. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph combined with RH values dropping below 15% will result in elevated fire weather conditions. ..Dean.. 08/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 14:10
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Added an elevated area across northwest Nevada and clipping portions of northeast California, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho. RH values are forecast to be less than 10 percent across this area with winds increasing to 15 to 20 mph during the afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, no changes were made. Storm coverage is expected to be scattered across central Idaho into far western Montana, but storms will likely be wet. Despite faster storm motion, numerous storm coverage and several rounds of potential rainfall will likely limit the potential for new large fires. ..Bentley.. 08/16/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies on D2/Friday. Stronger mid-level flow will be present across those regions. At the surface, continued troughing within the Columbia Basin will help to enhance the pressure gradient across north-central Oregon and vicinity. ...Columbia River Gorge... At least elevated fire weather concerns will exist within the Gorge. The surface pressure gradient will again be sufficient to drive terrain-enhanced surface winds of 15-20 mph. Localized areas of 20+ mph may occur briefly as well. Afternoon RH values will range from 5-25%. ...Parts of Columbia Basin eastward into the northern Rockies... Large-scale ascent will overspread the area with the passage of the trough. Sufficient mid-level moisture will be in place to support isolated dry thunderstorm activity. PWAT values will generally be in the 0.6-1.0 inch range, however, faster storm motions should help to limit wetting rainfall potential. Furthermore, record fuel dryness, particularly in Idaho and Montana, will increase potential for lightning ignitions even in the presence of wetter storms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 14:10
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Added an elevated area across northwest Nevada and clipping portions of northeast California, southeast Oregon, and southwest Idaho. RH values are forecast to be less than 10 percent across this area with winds increasing to 15 to 20 mph during the afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, no changes were made. Storm coverage is expected to be scattered across central Idaho into far western Montana, but storms will likely be wet. Despite faster storm motion, numerous storm coverage and several rounds of potential rainfall will likely limit the potential for new large fires. ..Bentley.. 08/16/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies on D2/Friday. Stronger mid-level flow will be present across those regions. At the surface, continued troughing within the Columbia Basin will help to enhance the pressure gradient across north-central Oregon and vicinity. ...Columbia River Gorge... At least elevated fire weather concerns will exist within the Gorge. The surface pressure gradient will again be sufficient to drive terrain-enhanced surface winds of 15-20 mph. Localized areas of 20+ mph may occur briefly as well. Afternoon RH values will range from 5-25%. ...Parts of Columbia Basin eastward into the northern Rockies... Large-scale ascent will overspread the area with the passage of the trough. Sufficient mid-level moisture will be in place to support isolated dry thunderstorm activity. PWAT values will generally be in the 0.6-1.0 inch range, however, faster storm motions should help to limit wetting rainfall potential. Furthermore, record fuel dryness, particularly in Idaho and Montana, will increase potential for lightning ignitions even in the presence of wetter storms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 10:50
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OREGON... Added a scattered dry thunderstorm area from central Oregon into northeast Oregon. The concerns from previous outlooks about storms being too wet for scattered coverage of dry lightning have been somewhat alleviated. Several model runs have come in considerably drier with accumulated precipitation. In addition, convective allowing models have reduced storm coverage across this area which should limit the potential for wetting rain while still producing scattered coverage of storms and lightning. Overall, dry fuels, fast storm motion, and the expectation of numerous lightning strikes this afternoon and evening warrant the addition of this SctDryT area. In addition, removed northeast Nevada and northern Utah from the IsoDryT area due to questions about fuels in an already marginal dry thunderstorm environment. Gauge corrected precipitation estimates across northeast Nevada suggest wetting rains fell across most of the region yesterday. Finally, extended the IsoDryT area into southeast Washington, the Idaho panhandle, and far western Montana to primarily cover the threat for some isolated lightning overnight Thursday night into Friday morning from elevated convection. ..Bentley.. 08/16/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will shift east of the Pacific Northwest as an upper-level trough approaches today. Forcing for ascent associated with the wave will lead to scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be dry, across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Columbia River Gorge... Surface troughing will increase the pressure gradient and, with terrain enhancement, will lead to surface winds of 15-20 mph within the Gorge coincident with afternoon RH values falling to 10-25%. ...Central/eastern Oregon into parts of northern Great Basin... Dry thunderstorms will be possible with development aided by the approaching trough. Scattered coverage is possible in parts of central Oregon, but recent wetting rainfall over the area of concern as well as storms likely being more organized reduces confidence in 1) the ignition potential in that area and 2) how dry most of the storms will be, respectively. Across the northern Great Basin, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible. Though storms look to move slower away from the influence of the trough, PWAT values of 0.4-0.6 inches should lessen chances for wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 10:50
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OREGON... Added a scattered dry thunderstorm area from central Oregon into northeast Oregon. The concerns from previous outlooks about storms being too wet for scattered coverage of dry lightning have been somewhat alleviated. Several model runs have come in considerably drier with accumulated precipitation. In addition, convective allowing models have reduced storm coverage across this area which should limit the potential for wetting rain while still producing scattered coverage of storms and lightning. Overall, dry fuels, fast storm motion, and the expectation of numerous lightning strikes this afternoon and evening warrant the addition of this SctDryT area. In addition, removed northeast Nevada and northern Utah from the IsoDryT area due to questions about fuels in an already marginal dry thunderstorm environment. Gauge corrected precipitation estimates across northeast Nevada suggest wetting rains fell across most of the region yesterday. Finally, extended the IsoDryT area into southeast Washington, the Idaho panhandle, and far western Montana to primarily cover the threat for some isolated lightning overnight Thursday night into Friday morning from elevated convection. ..Bentley.. 08/16/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will shift east of the Pacific Northwest as an upper-level trough approaches today. Forcing for ascent associated with the wave will lead to scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be dry, across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Columbia River Gorge... Surface troughing will increase the pressure gradient and, with terrain enhancement, will lead to surface winds of 15-20 mph within the Gorge coincident with afternoon RH values falling to 10-25%. ...Central/eastern Oregon into parts of northern Great Basin... Dry thunderstorms will be possible with development aided by the approaching trough. Scattered coverage is possible in parts of central Oregon, but recent wetting rainfall over the area of concern as well as storms likely being more organized reduces confidence in 1) the ignition potential in that area and 2) how dry most of the storms will be, respectively. Across the northern Great Basin, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible. Though storms look to move slower away from the influence of the trough, PWAT values of 0.4-0.6 inches should lessen chances for wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 02:11
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies on D2/Friday. Stronger mid-level flow will be present across those regions. At the surface, continued troughing within the Columbia Basin will help to enhance the pressure gradient across north-central Oregon and vicinity. ...Columbia River Gorge... At least elevated fire weather concerns will exist within the Gorge. The surface pressure gradient will again be sufficient to drive terrain-enhanced surface winds of 15-20 mph. Localized areas of 20+ mph may occur briefly as well. Afternoon RH values will range from 5-25%. ...Parts of Columbia Basin eastward into the northern Rockies... Large-scale ascent will overspread the area with the passage of the trough. Sufficient mid-level moisture will be in place to support isolated dry thunderstorm activity. PWAT values will generally be in the 0.6-1.0 inch range, however, faster storm motions should help to limit wetting rainfall potential. Furthermore, record fuel dryness, particularly in Idaho and Montana, will increase potential for lightning ignitions even in the presence of wetter storms. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 02:11
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies on D2/Friday. Stronger mid-level flow will be present across those regions. At the surface, continued troughing within the Columbia Basin will help to enhance the pressure gradient across north-central Oregon and vicinity. ...Columbia River Gorge... At least elevated fire weather concerns will exist within the Gorge. The surface pressure gradient will again be sufficient to drive terrain-enhanced surface winds of 15-20 mph. Localized areas of 20+ mph may occur briefly as well. Afternoon RH values will range from 5-25%. ...Parts of Columbia Basin eastward into the northern Rockies... Large-scale ascent will overspread the area with the passage of the trough. Sufficient mid-level moisture will be in place to support isolated dry thunderstorm activity. PWAT values will generally be in the 0.6-1.0 inch range, however, faster storm motions should help to limit wetting rainfall potential. Furthermore, record fuel dryness, particularly in Idaho and Montana, will increase potential for lightning ignitions even in the presence of wetter storms. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 02:07
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will shift east of the Pacific Northwest as an upper-level trough approaches today. Forcing for ascent associated with the wave will lead to scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be dry, across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Columbia River Gorge... Surface troughing will increase the pressure gradient and, with terrain enhancement, will lead to surface winds of 15-20 mph within the Gorge coincident with afternoon RH values falling to 10-25%. ...Central/eastern Oregon into parts of northern Great Basin... Dry thunderstorms will be possible with development aided by the approaching trough. Scattered coverage is possible in parts of central Oregon, but recent wetting rainfall over the area of concern as well as storms likely being more organized reduces confidence in 1) the ignition potential in that area and 2) how dry most of the storms will be, respectively. Across the northern Great Basin, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible. Though storms look to move slower away from the influence of the trough, PWAT values of 0.4-0.6 inches should lessen chances for wetting rainfall. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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