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Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 7 min 11 sec ago

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 hour 32 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN NV INTO NORTHWEST AZ... A critical has been added for a small portions of southern NV into northwest AZ. Southwest sustained winds near 20 mph with higher gusts will align with RH values from the single digits to 12 percent for about 3-5 hours this afternoon. Furthermore, ongoing drought across the region has lead to extremely dry fuel conditions with high to very high fire danger indicated across this region. The larger elevated area across southern and eastern NV into southwest UT and northern AZ remains unchanged from the previous outlook. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 05/25/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0223 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/ ...Synopsis... As a closed low moves into California, southerly lower-tropospheric flow will strengthen across the Southwest and Great Basin. This increasing flow will encounter a dry airmass in place across the same region, setting the stage for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and northern Arizona... Latest numerical guidance supports surface winds across much of this area increasing to the 20-30 mph range as strong diurnal heating and vertical mixing promotes downward momentum transport of the strengthening lower-tropospheric flow. Additionally, the strong heating and vertical mixing will allow minimum afternoon relative-humidity values to fall into the single digits across much of eastern Arizona, eastern Utah, and much of New Mexico, with higher values to the west. At present, thinking is the lowest relative humidity (east) and strongest winds (west) will be enough offset to preclude the need for critical fire-weather highlights. Instead, widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions can be expected. However, should confidence increase for a greater overlap of the dry and windy conditions, a critical may be needed in the outlook update later today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 12 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO...AND SOUTHEAST UTAH... ...Synopsis... A slow moving, closed low will begin to fill/open as it continues eastward on Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced south-southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across the Southwest United States into portions of the central Rocky Mountains. ...Northern Arizona, northwest New Mexico, extreme western Colorado, and southeast Utah... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected across the region as the aforementioned low moves slowly through the West. Diurnal heating and deep vertical mixing will result in favorable downward momentum transport across the area, supporting afternoon winds in the 20-30 mph range, with stronger gusts. Additionally, minimum afternoon relative-humidity values will fall into the single digits and teens across a similar area. This combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions will result in widespread elevated-to-critical fire-weather concerns. One mitigating factor for a more widespread fire-weather event will be non-cured fuels across portions of the higher elevations. ..Marsh.. 05/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

9 hours 13 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a closed low moves into California, southerly lower-tropospheric flow will strengthen across the Southwest and Great Basin. This increasing flow will encounter a dry airmass in place across the same region, setting the stage for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and northern Arizona... Latest numerical guidance supports surface winds across much of this area increasing to the 20-30 mph range as strong diurnal heating and vertical mixing promotes downward momentum transport of the strengthening lower-tropospheric flow. Additionally, the strong heating and vertical mixing will allow minimum afternoon relative-humidity values to fall into the single digits across much of eastern Arizona, eastern Utah, and much of New Mexico, with higher values to the west. At present, thinking is the lowest relative humidity (east) and strongest winds (west) will be enough offset to preclude the need for critical fire-weather highlights. Instead, widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions can be expected. However, should confidence increase for a greater overlap of the dry and windy conditions, a critical may be needed in the outlook update later today. ..Marsh.. 05/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 12:36
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z Locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across far southern Nevada/northwestern Arizona on Friday. However, these conditions may be relatively brief (< 3 hours) and coverage limited. Forecast still looks on track and no changes are necessary. Please see discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 05/24/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft across the Southwest will increase in response to an approaching mid-level low centered over California. As this occurs, vertical mixing processes and a slight strengthening of the surface pressure gradient across the Great Basin (compared to D1/Thu) will result in enough flow for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Southwest. Elsewhere, quiescent larger-scale fire weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Arizona, southern Nevada, and southern Utah... The aforementioned synoptic pattern will result in broad areas of 15-20 mph southwesterly surface flow developing by peak heating across the region. Additionally, RH values will flirt with critical thresholds across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona while falling into single digits across northeastern Arizona and vicinity. While a few areas of critical atmospheric conditions are expected, these thresholds are currently expected to be met on too brief of a basis to necessitate any critical headlines at this time. This region will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 12:36
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z Locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across far southern Nevada/northwestern Arizona on Friday. However, these conditions may be relatively brief (< 3 hours) and coverage limited. Forecast still looks on track and no changes are necessary. Please see discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 05/24/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft across the Southwest will increase in response to an approaching mid-level low centered over California. As this occurs, vertical mixing processes and a slight strengthening of the surface pressure gradient across the Great Basin (compared to D1/Thu) will result in enough flow for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Southwest. Elsewhere, quiescent larger-scale fire weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Arizona, southern Nevada, and southern Utah... The aforementioned synoptic pattern will result in broad areas of 15-20 mph southwesterly surface flow developing by peak heating across the region. Additionally, RH values will flirt with critical thresholds across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona while falling into single digits across northeastern Arizona and vicinity. While a few areas of critical atmospheric conditions are expected, these thresholds are currently expected to be met on too brief of a basis to necessitate any critical headlines at this time. This region will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 10:09
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions (hot, dry, unstable, and breezy) are likely to develop across most of Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon including in the vicinity of the Buzzard fire. Forecast still looks on track and no changes are necessary. Please see discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 05/24/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/ ...Synopsis... Dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies will reside in between two systems - one mid-level shortwave trough lifting northeastward toward the northern Rockies and another closed low just west of California. As a result, ridging will persist today and result in a relative minimum of mid-level flow across much of the western third of the CONUS. At the surface, a relatively weak gradient will exist across the Southwest resulting from a weak trough from Nevada southward through the Lower Colorado River Valley. Areas of breezy (10-15 mph) southerly flow will exist from southern Arizona into the Four Corners during peak heating today amidst dry low-level conditions (critically low RH and dry fuels/drought). Although locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist across portions of the region, overall wind fields remain a bit too weak to highlight any areas in the Southwest. Elsewhere, moist fuels and relatively high RH will result in quiescent fire weather conditions across the remainder of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 10:09
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions (hot, dry, unstable, and breezy) are likely to develop across most of Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon including in the vicinity of the Buzzard fire. Forecast still looks on track and no changes are necessary. Please see discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 05/24/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/ ...Synopsis... Dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies will reside in between two systems - one mid-level shortwave trough lifting northeastward toward the northern Rockies and another closed low just west of California. As a result, ridging will persist today and result in a relative minimum of mid-level flow across much of the western third of the CONUS. At the surface, a relatively weak gradient will exist across the Southwest resulting from a weak trough from Nevada southward through the Lower Colorado River Valley. Areas of breezy (10-15 mph) southerly flow will exist from southern Arizona into the Four Corners during peak heating today amidst dry low-level conditions (critically low RH and dry fuels/drought). Although locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist across portions of the region, overall wind fields remain a bit too weak to highlight any areas in the Southwest. Elsewhere, moist fuels and relatively high RH will result in quiescent fire weather conditions across the remainder of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 01:43
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Flow aloft across the Southwest will increase in response to an approaching mid-level low centered over California. As this occurs, vertical mixing processes and a slight strengthening of the surface pressure gradient across the Great Basin (compared to D1/Thu) will result in enough flow for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Southwest. Elsewhere, quiescent larger-scale fire weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Arizona, southern Nevada, and southern Utah... The aforementioned synoptic pattern will result in broad areas of 15-20 mph southwesterly surface flow developing by peak heating across the region. Additionally, RH values will flirt with critical thresholds across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona while falling into single digits across northeastern Arizona and vicinity. While a few areas of critical atmospheric conditions are expected, these thresholds are currently expected to be met on too brief of a basis to necessitate any critical headlines at this time. This region will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Cook.. 05/24/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 01:43
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Flow aloft across the Southwest will increase in response to an approaching mid-level low centered over California. As this occurs, vertical mixing processes and a slight strengthening of the surface pressure gradient across the Great Basin (compared to D1/Thu) will result in enough flow for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Southwest. Elsewhere, quiescent larger-scale fire weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Arizona, southern Nevada, and southern Utah... The aforementioned synoptic pattern will result in broad areas of 15-20 mph southwesterly surface flow developing by peak heating across the region. Additionally, RH values will flirt with critical thresholds across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona while falling into single digits across northeastern Arizona and vicinity. While a few areas of critical atmospheric conditions are expected, these thresholds are currently expected to be met on too brief of a basis to necessitate any critical headlines at this time. This region will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Cook.. 05/24/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 01:43
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Flow aloft across the Southwest will increase in response to an approaching mid-level low centered over California. As this occurs, vertical mixing processes and a slight strengthening of the surface pressure gradient across the Great Basin (compared to D1/Thu) will result in enough flow for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Southwest. Elsewhere, quiescent larger-scale fire weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Arizona, southern Nevada, and southern Utah... The aforementioned synoptic pattern will result in broad areas of 15-20 mph southwesterly surface flow developing by peak heating across the region. Additionally, RH values will flirt with critical thresholds across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona while falling into single digits across northeastern Arizona and vicinity. While a few areas of critical atmospheric conditions are expected, these thresholds are currently expected to be met on too brief of a basis to necessitate any critical headlines at this time. This region will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Cook.. 05/24/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 00:57
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies will reside in between two systems - one mid-level shortwave trough lifting northeastward toward the northern Rockies and another closed low just west of California. As a result, ridging will persist today and result in a relative minimum of mid-level flow across much of the western third of the CONUS. At the surface, a relatively weak gradient will exist across the Southwest resulting from a weak trough from Nevada southward through the Lower Colorado River Valley. Areas of breezy (10-15 mph) southerly flow will exist from southern Arizona into the Four Corners during peak heating today amidst dry low-level conditions (critically low RH and dry fuels/drought). Although locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist across portions of the region, overall wind fields remain a bit too weak to highlight any areas in the Southwest. Elsewhere, moist fuels and relatively high RH will result in quiescent fire weather conditions across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Cook.. 05/24/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 00:57
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies will reside in between two systems - one mid-level shortwave trough lifting northeastward toward the northern Rockies and another closed low just west of California. As a result, ridging will persist today and result in a relative minimum of mid-level flow across much of the western third of the CONUS. At the surface, a relatively weak gradient will exist across the Southwest resulting from a weak trough from Nevada southward through the Lower Colorado River Valley. Areas of breezy (10-15 mph) southerly flow will exist from southern Arizona into the Four Corners during peak heating today amidst dry low-level conditions (critically low RH and dry fuels/drought). Although locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist across portions of the region, overall wind fields remain a bit too weak to highlight any areas in the Southwest. Elsewhere, moist fuels and relatively high RH will result in quiescent fire weather conditions across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Cook.. 05/24/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 00:57
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies will reside in between two systems - one mid-level shortwave trough lifting northeastward toward the northern Rockies and another closed low just west of California. As a result, ridging will persist today and result in a relative minimum of mid-level flow across much of the western third of the CONUS. At the surface, a relatively weak gradient will exist across the Southwest resulting from a weak trough from Nevada southward through the Lower Colorado River Valley. Areas of breezy (10-15 mph) southerly flow will exist from southern Arizona into the Four Corners during peak heating today amidst dry low-level conditions (critically low RH and dry fuels/drought). Although locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist across portions of the region, overall wind fields remain a bit too weak to highlight any areas in the Southwest. Elsewhere, moist fuels and relatively high RH will result in quiescent fire weather conditions across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Cook.. 05/24/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 13:15
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Current forecast appears on track and no changes are necessary. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 05/23/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0805 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/ ...Synopsis... Quieter fire weather conditions are expected D2/Thu. Mid-level ridging will develop across dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies, where dry near surface conditions, dry fuels, and drought persist. As this occurs, mid-level flow will slacken substantially across these areas, leading to a resultant decrease in surface flow. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist nearer the Lower Colorado River Valley and into portions of central Arizona, although surface wind speeds are expected to be too light (10-15 mph) to justify any highlights at this time. Elsewhere, a generally wet pattern across much of the U.S. should limit the fire weather threat in most areas. Large-scale fire weather is not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 13:15
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Current forecast appears on track and no changes are necessary. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Nauslar.. 05/23/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0805 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/ ...Synopsis... Quieter fire weather conditions are expected D2/Thu. Mid-level ridging will develop across dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies, where dry near surface conditions, dry fuels, and drought persist. As this occurs, mid-level flow will slacken substantially across these areas, leading to a resultant decrease in surface flow. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist nearer the Lower Colorado River Valley and into portions of central Arizona, although surface wind speeds are expected to be too light (10-15 mph) to justify any highlights at this time. Elsewhere, a generally wet pattern across much of the U.S. should limit the fire weather threat in most areas. Large-scale fire weather is not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 10:13
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Current forecast looks on track and no changes are necessary. See previous discussion for details. ..Nauslar.. 05/23/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0803 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/ ...Synopsis... The greatest risk of fire weather today will occur across portions of the Southwest and southern Rockies. 35-45 kt flow will continue to overspread these areas in response to a weakening mid-level low that will lift northward from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a dry airmass will remain in place from Arizona into western New Mexico and spread east/northeast during the day toward central New Mexico and south-central Colorado along and west of a weak lee surface trough. The net result of this pattern is elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region. ...Eastern Arizona, western/central New Mexico, and southern Colorado... Surface flow will range from 10-20 mph in most areas during peak heating in response to vertical mixing and a modest surface pressure gradient. Additionally, as temperatures rise through the 70s and 80s F, RH values will fall below 15% areawide and fall into the single digits across central New Mexico and vicinity. Localized areas of 20+ mph surface winds will develop in terrain-favored areas from central New Mexico northward to south-central Colorado. These conditions, in conjunction with dry fuels and areas of continued drought, are consistent with elevated fire weather, and an attendant delineation remains in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 10:13
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Current forecast looks on track and no changes are necessary. See previous discussion for details. ..Nauslar.. 05/23/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0803 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/ ...Synopsis... The greatest risk of fire weather today will occur across portions of the Southwest and southern Rockies. 35-45 kt flow will continue to overspread these areas in response to a weakening mid-level low that will lift northward from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a dry airmass will remain in place from Arizona into western New Mexico and spread east/northeast during the day toward central New Mexico and south-central Colorado along and west of a weak lee surface trough. The net result of this pattern is elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region. ...Eastern Arizona, western/central New Mexico, and southern Colorado... Surface flow will range from 10-20 mph in most areas during peak heating in response to vertical mixing and a modest surface pressure gradient. Additionally, as temperatures rise through the 70s and 80s F, RH values will fall below 15% areawide and fall into the single digits across central New Mexico and vicinity. Localized areas of 20+ mph surface winds will develop in terrain-favored areas from central New Mexico northward to south-central Colorado. These conditions, in conjunction with dry fuels and areas of continued drought, are consistent with elevated fire weather, and an attendant delineation remains in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 10:13
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Current forecast looks on track and no changes are necessary. See previous discussion for details. ..Nauslar.. 05/23/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0803 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/ ...Synopsis... The greatest risk of fire weather today will occur across portions of the Southwest and southern Rockies. 35-45 kt flow will continue to overspread these areas in response to a weakening mid-level low that will lift northward from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a dry airmass will remain in place from Arizona into western New Mexico and spread east/northeast during the day toward central New Mexico and south-central Colorado along and west of a weak lee surface trough. The net result of this pattern is elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region. ...Eastern Arizona, western/central New Mexico, and southern Colorado... Surface flow will range from 10-20 mph in most areas during peak heating in response to vertical mixing and a modest surface pressure gradient. Additionally, as temperatures rise through the 70s and 80s F, RH values will fall below 15% areawide and fall into the single digits across central New Mexico and vicinity. Localized areas of 20+ mph surface winds will develop in terrain-favored areas from central New Mexico northward to south-central Colorado. These conditions, in conjunction with dry fuels and areas of continued drought, are consistent with elevated fire weather, and an attendant delineation remains in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 08:07
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Quieter fire weather conditions are expected D2/Thu. Mid-level ridging will develop across dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies, where dry near surface conditions, dry fuels, and drought persist. As this occurs, mid-level flow will slacken substantially across these areas, leading to a resultant decrease in surface flow. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist nearer the Lower Colorado River Valley and into portions of central Arizona, although surface wind speeds are expected to be too light (10-15 mph) to justify any highlights at this time. Elsewhere, a generally wet pattern across much of the U.S. should limit the fire weather threat in most areas. Large-scale fire weather is not expected. ..Cook.. 05/23/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 08:07
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Quieter fire weather conditions are expected D2/Thu. Mid-level ridging will develop across dry areas of the Southwest and southern Rockies, where dry near surface conditions, dry fuels, and drought persist. As this occurs, mid-level flow will slacken substantially across these areas, leading to a resultant decrease in surface flow. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist nearer the Lower Colorado River Valley and into portions of central Arizona, although surface wind speeds are expected to be too light (10-15 mph) to justify any highlights at this time. Elsewhere, a generally wet pattern across much of the U.S. should limit the fire weather threat in most areas. Large-scale fire weather is not expected. ..Cook.. 05/23/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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