Weather - Fire Weather

Subscribe to Weather - Fire Weather feed Weather - Fire Weather
Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 26 min 35 sec ago

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

4 hours 29 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Portions of Coastal Southern CA... The elevated area has been expanded across southwestern San Bernardino, Los Angeles and Ventura counties based on latest hi-res guidance. Northeasterly winds may be occasionally breezy during the afternoon during peak heating. Overnight, wind speeds should increase across portions of the area as the surface pressure gradient tightens and RH recovery will remain poor. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough/low centered over UT on Day 2/Sunday will make only very slow eastward progress across the western CONUS as an upper ridge remains across much of the eastern states. Enhanced mid-level winds on the western half of the upper trough should slowly decrease through the period. Subsidence on the back side of the upper trough will promote strengthening surface high pressure across the Great Basin by early Monday morning. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley and Adjacent Coastal Ranges of Northern CA... Sustained northerly winds up to 15 mph may occur once again Sunday afternoon across portions of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent Coastal Ranges of northern CA. RH values should become lowered into the 10-20% range, and with dry/receptive fuels expected to remain in place, an elevated area has been introduced across this region. ...Portions of Coastal Southern CA... A slowly strengthening surface pressure gradient across parts of southern CA may result in weak to locally moderate offshore northerly/northeasterly winds late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests sustained winds of 15-20 mph may occur in combination with poor overnight RH recovery and drying fuels to support elevated fire weather conditions across a small part of coastal southern CA late Sunday night into early Monday morning when the surface pressure gradient will be maximized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

4 hours 29 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Portions of Coastal Southern CA... The elevated area has been expanded across southwestern San Bernardino, Los Angeles and Ventura counties based on latest hi-res guidance. Northeasterly winds may be occasionally breezy during the afternoon during peak heating. Overnight, wind speeds should increase across portions of the area as the surface pressure gradient tightens and RH recovery will remain poor. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough/low centered over UT on Day 2/Sunday will make only very slow eastward progress across the western CONUS as an upper ridge remains across much of the eastern states. Enhanced mid-level winds on the western half of the upper trough should slowly decrease through the period. Subsidence on the back side of the upper trough will promote strengthening surface high pressure across the Great Basin by early Monday morning. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley and Adjacent Coastal Ranges of Northern CA... Sustained northerly winds up to 15 mph may occur once again Sunday afternoon across portions of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent Coastal Ranges of northern CA. RH values should become lowered into the 10-20% range, and with dry/receptive fuels expected to remain in place, an elevated area has been introduced across this region. ...Portions of Coastal Southern CA... A slowly strengthening surface pressure gradient across parts of southern CA may result in weak to locally moderate offshore northerly/northeasterly winds late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests sustained winds of 15-20 mph may occur in combination with poor overnight RH recovery and drying fuels to support elevated fire weather conditions across a small part of coastal southern CA late Sunday night into early Monday morning when the surface pressure gradient will be maximized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 hours 28 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z No changes to the previous outlook are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin will continue to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS today. An upper ridge will persist over much of the eastern CONUS. While enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will remain present over portions of the Southwest into the High Plains this afternoon, RH values behind a surface cold front are generally expected to remain above critical levels across these areas. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley and Adjacent Coastal Ranges of Northern CA... On the back side of the upper trough/low described above, enhanced northerly winds will persist over much of CA today. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer occurs, some increase in low-level winds appears likely across parts of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent Coastal Ranges of northern CA. Consensus of recent short-term guidance indicates sustained northerly winds around 15 mph should occur in conjunction with RH values becoming lowered generally into the 15-20% range for a few hours this afternoon. Fuel guidance suggests most fuels remain receptive to large fire starts, and therefore a small elevated area has been introduced across this region. ...Portions of the Southwest... Locally elevated fire weather conditions may briefly occur across parts of northern AZ and southeastern UT this afternoon where RH values will become lowered to around 15-20% in conjunction with strong/gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph. However, only marginally receptive to unreceptive fuels across this region and cooler temperatures behind the surface cold front preclude the introduction of an elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

15 hours 5 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... The upper trough/low centered over UT on Day 2/Sunday will make only very slow eastward progress across the western CONUS as an upper ridge remains across much of the eastern states. Enhanced mid-level winds on the western half of the upper trough should slowly decrease through the period. Subsidence on the back side of the upper trough will promote strengthening surface high pressure across the Great Basin by early Monday morning. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley and Adjacent Coastal Ranges of Northern CA... Sustained northerly winds up to 15 mph may occur once again Sunday afternoon across portions of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent Coastal Ranges of northern CA. RH values should become lowered into the 10-20% range, and with dry/receptive fuels expected to remain in place, an elevated area has been introduced across this region. ...Portions of Coastal Southern CA... A slowly strengthening surface pressure gradient across parts of southern CA may result in weak to locally moderate offshore northerly/northeasterly winds late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests sustained winds of 15-20 mph may occur in combination with poor overnight RH recovery and drying fuels to support elevated fire weather conditions across a small part of coastal southern CA late Sunday night into early Monday morning when the surface pressure gradient will be maximized. ..Gleason.. 09/23/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

15 hours 5 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... The upper trough/low centered over UT on Day 2/Sunday will make only very slow eastward progress across the western CONUS as an upper ridge remains across much of the eastern states. Enhanced mid-level winds on the western half of the upper trough should slowly decrease through the period. Subsidence on the back side of the upper trough will promote strengthening surface high pressure across the Great Basin by early Monday morning. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley and Adjacent Coastal Ranges of Northern CA... Sustained northerly winds up to 15 mph may occur once again Sunday afternoon across portions of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent Coastal Ranges of northern CA. RH values should become lowered into the 10-20% range, and with dry/receptive fuels expected to remain in place, an elevated area has been introduced across this region. ...Portions of Coastal Southern CA... A slowly strengthening surface pressure gradient across parts of southern CA may result in weak to locally moderate offshore northerly/northeasterly winds late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests sustained winds of 15-20 mph may occur in combination with poor overnight RH recovery and drying fuels to support elevated fire weather conditions across a small part of coastal southern CA late Sunday night into early Monday morning when the surface pressure gradient will be maximized. ..Gleason.. 09/23/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

15 hours 7 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin will continue to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS today. An upper ridge will persist over much of the eastern CONUS. While enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will remain present over portions of the Southwest into the High Plains this afternoon, RH values behind a surface cold front are generally expected to remain above critical levels across these areas. ...Portions of the Sacramento Valley and Adjacent Coastal Ranges of Northern CA... On the back side of the upper trough/low described above, enhanced northerly winds will persist over much of CA today. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer occurs, some increase in low-level winds appears likely across parts of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent Coastal Ranges of northern CA. Consensus of recent short-term guidance indicates sustained northerly winds around 15 mph should occur in conjunction with RH values becoming lowered generally into the 15-20% range for a few hours this afternoon. Fuel guidance suggests most fuels remain receptive to large fire starts, and therefore a small elevated area has been introduced across this region. ...Portions of the Southwest... Locally elevated fire weather conditions may briefly occur across parts of northern AZ and southeastern UT this afternoon where RH values will become lowered to around 15-20% in conjunction with strong/gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph. However, only marginally receptive to unreceptive fuels across this region and cooler temperatures behind the surface cold front preclude the introduction of an elevated area. ..Gleason.. 09/23/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 12:51
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous outlook are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin will continue to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. An upper ridge will persist over much of the eastern CONUS. While enhanced mid-level winds will remain present over portions of the Southwest into the High Plains Saturday afternoon, RH values behind a surface cold front are generally expected to remain above critical levels. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across parts of northern AZ and southeastern UT where RH values could become lowered near 20% in conjunction with strong/gusty surface winds. However, only marginally receptive to unreceptive fuels across this region and cooler temperatures behind the surface cold front preclude the introduction of an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 12:51
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous outlook are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin will continue to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. An upper ridge will persist over much of the eastern CONUS. While enhanced mid-level winds will remain present over portions of the Southwest into the High Plains Saturday afternoon, RH values behind a surface cold front are generally expected to remain above critical levels. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across parts of northern AZ and southeastern UT where RH values could become lowered near 20% in conjunction with strong/gusty surface winds. However, only marginally receptive to unreceptive fuels across this region and cooler temperatures behind the surface cold front preclude the introduction of an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 10:40
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...Portions of Eastern Colorado... The critical fire weather area has been expanded north and eastward this update to account for latest HRRR wind/RH guidance and surface observation trends this morning. RH values are expected to fall into the 12-15 percent range in the critical area with sustained wind speeds in the 20-30 mph range with higher gusts for several hours this afternoon. The surrounding elevated area from portions of central NM into the central High Plains has been adjusted only slightly. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will make only slow eastward progress across the western CONUS today, while upper ridging remains over much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak low will develop northeastward across the northern Plains today, while a second area of low pressure redevelops across eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low over eastern CO across the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains... Strong 40-50 kt mid-level southwesterly winds will be present across much of the High Plains today in association with the previously mentioned upper trough over the western CONUS. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer occurs, a broad corridor of strong/gusty surface winds will develop this afternoon from portions of the Southwest into the eastern Great Basin, central/southern Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. Sustained south-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will likely occur, with higher gusts possible, particularly in higher terrain. RH values will become lowered mainly into the 15-25% range through downslope warming/drying of low levels along/behind a surface trough/dryline. Latest short-term guidance suggests these lowered RH values will likely occur across parts of NM, and the ongoing elevated area has been extended southward to account for this risk. A small area of critical conditions now appears likely across parts of southeastern CO for a few hours this afternoon where RH values will fall into the 12-15% range. Coupled with receptive fuels, these forecast meteorological conditions warrant the introduction of a small critical area across parts of southeastern CO. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 10:40
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...Portions of Eastern Colorado... The critical fire weather area has been expanded north and eastward this update to account for latest HRRR wind/RH guidance and surface observation trends this morning. RH values are expected to fall into the 12-15 percent range in the critical area with sustained wind speeds in the 20-30 mph range with higher gusts for several hours this afternoon. The surrounding elevated area from portions of central NM into the central High Plains has been adjusted only slightly. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will make only slow eastward progress across the western CONUS today, while upper ridging remains over much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak low will develop northeastward across the northern Plains today, while a second area of low pressure redevelops across eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low over eastern CO across the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains... Strong 40-50 kt mid-level southwesterly winds will be present across much of the High Plains today in association with the previously mentioned upper trough over the western CONUS. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer occurs, a broad corridor of strong/gusty surface winds will develop this afternoon from portions of the Southwest into the eastern Great Basin, central/southern Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. Sustained south-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will likely occur, with higher gusts possible, particularly in higher terrain. RH values will become lowered mainly into the 15-25% range through downslope warming/drying of low levels along/behind a surface trough/dryline. Latest short-term guidance suggests these lowered RH values will likely occur across parts of NM, and the ongoing elevated area has been extended southward to account for this risk. A small area of critical conditions now appears likely across parts of southeastern CO for a few hours this afternoon where RH values will fall into the 12-15% range. Coupled with receptive fuels, these forecast meteorological conditions warrant the introduction of a small critical area across parts of southeastern CO. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 01:38
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin will continue to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. An upper ridge will persist over much of the eastern CONUS. While enhanced mid-level winds will remain present over portions of the Southwest into the High Plains Saturday afternoon, RH values behind a surface cold front are generally expected to remain above critical levels. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across parts of northern AZ and southeastern UT where RH values could become lowered near 20% in conjunction with strong/gusty surface winds. However, only marginally receptive to unreceptive fuels across this region and cooler temperatures behind the surface cold front preclude the introduction of an elevated area at this time. ..Gleason.. 09/22/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 01:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will make only slow eastward progress across the western CONUS today, while upper ridging remains over much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak low will develop northeastward across the northern Plains today, while a second area of low pressure redevelops across eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low over eastern CO across the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains... Strong 40-50 kt mid-level southwesterly winds will be present across much of the High Plains today in association with the previously mentioned upper trough over the western CONUS. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer occurs, a broad corridor of strong/gusty surface winds will develop this afternoon from portions of the Southwest into the eastern Great Basin, central/southern Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. Sustained south-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will likely occur, with higher gusts possible, particularly in higher terrain. RH values will become lowered mainly into the 15-25% range through downslope warming/drying of low levels along/behind a surface trough/dryline. Latest short-term guidance suggests these lowered RH values will likely occur across parts of NM, and the ongoing elevated area has been extended southward to account for this risk. A small area of critical conditions now appears likely across parts of southeastern CO for a few hours this afternoon where RH values will fall into the 12-15% range. Coupled with receptive fuels, these forecast meteorological conditions warrant the introduction of a small critical area across parts of southeastern CO. ..Gleason.. 09/22/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 11:58
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Central High Plains... Only modest changes have been made to the previous outlook area, mainly across parts of western KS and southwest NE. This is based on latest model guidance regarding where a surface dryline will develop from central NE southwestward into western KS. Overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged however. See previous discussion for details. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ ...Synopsis... Very little change to large-scale pattern is expected on Friday, as a deep upper trough remains over the West, while an upper ridge remains in place from the eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A weak surface low is expected to move from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through the period, while another low redevelops in the lee of the Rockies. ...Central High Plains... Another relatively dry and windy day is expected across portions of the central High Plains, as low-level south-southwesterly flow remains strong ahead of the trough over the West. Some modest moistening is possible compared to D1/Thursday, though trajectories off of the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain rather unfavorable for substantial moisture return into the High Plains. Since sustained winds are expected to remain in the 20-25 mph range across a broad area, the fire weather threat will be largely determined by where the greatest RH reductions will occur. There is a fair amount of model spread regarding where the strongest drying will occur, though there is modest agreement that the area from eastern CO into west-central/northwest KS and southwest NE will see RH values drop into the 15-25% range, resulting in an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat. Some adjustments to this elevated area will likely be needed with time as details regarding the RH forecast are resolved, and it is possible that some areas will see critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region... Dry and windy conditions are also expected to persist across the Four Corners region on Friday, though some cooling is expected compared to D1/Thursday. Sustained winds are likely to remain in the 20-25 mph range, but with some increase in RH values expected and generally marginal fuel conditions across this area, no elevated delineation has been made across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 11:58
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Central High Plains... Only modest changes have been made to the previous outlook area, mainly across parts of western KS and southwest NE. This is based on latest model guidance regarding where a surface dryline will develop from central NE southwestward into western KS. Overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged however. See previous discussion for details. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ ...Synopsis... Very little change to large-scale pattern is expected on Friday, as a deep upper trough remains over the West, while an upper ridge remains in place from the eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A weak surface low is expected to move from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through the period, while another low redevelops in the lee of the Rockies. ...Central High Plains... Another relatively dry and windy day is expected across portions of the central High Plains, as low-level south-southwesterly flow remains strong ahead of the trough over the West. Some modest moistening is possible compared to D1/Thursday, though trajectories off of the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain rather unfavorable for substantial moisture return into the High Plains. Since sustained winds are expected to remain in the 20-25 mph range across a broad area, the fire weather threat will be largely determined by where the greatest RH reductions will occur. There is a fair amount of model spread regarding where the strongest drying will occur, though there is modest agreement that the area from eastern CO into west-central/northwest KS and southwest NE will see RH values drop into the 15-25% range, resulting in an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat. Some adjustments to this elevated area will likely be needed with time as details regarding the RH forecast are resolved, and it is possible that some areas will see critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region... Dry and windy conditions are also expected to persist across the Four Corners region on Friday, though some cooling is expected compared to D1/Thursday. Sustained winds are likely to remain in the 20-25 mph range, but with some increase in RH values expected and generally marginal fuel conditions across this area, no elevated delineation has been made across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 10:33
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NE... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS today, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/drying will result in an increasing fire weather threat this afternoon, and the critical area has been maintained across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. This wind/RH combination in conjunction with continued curing of finer fuels will result in a critical fire weather risk. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO/southern WY... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, northwest NM, and southern WY this afternoon, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. While much of this area could see critical meteorological conditions, fuels are generally rather marginal across this region, and confidence in a sufficient duration of critical RH is too low where somewhat drier fuels reside across northwest NM and southwest CO, so no upgrade has been made in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 10:33
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NE... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS today, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/drying will result in an increasing fire weather threat this afternoon, and the critical area has been maintained across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. This wind/RH combination in conjunction with continued curing of finer fuels will result in a critical fire weather risk. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO/southern WY... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, northwest NM, and southern WY this afternoon, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. While much of this area could see critical meteorological conditions, fuels are generally rather marginal across this region, and confidence in a sufficient duration of critical RH is too low where somewhat drier fuels reside across northwest NM and southwest CO, so no upgrade has been made in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 01:55
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Very little change to large-scale pattern is expected on Friday, as a deep upper trough remains over the West, while an upper ridge remains in place from the eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A weak surface low is expected to move from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through the period, while another low redevelops in the lee of the Rockies. ...Central High Plains... Another relatively dry and windy day is expected across portions of the central High Plains, as low-level south-southwesterly flow remains strong ahead of the trough over the West. Some modest moistening is possible compared to D1/Thursday, though trajectories off of the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain rather unfavorable for substantial moisture return into the High Plains. Since sustained winds are expected to remain in the 20-25 mph range across a broad area, the fire weather threat will be largely determined by where the greatest RH reductions will occur. There is a fair amount of model spread regarding where the strongest drying will occur, though there is modest agreement that the area from eastern CO into west-central/northwest KS and southwest NE will see RH values drop into the 15-25% range, resulting in an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat. Some adjustments to this elevated area will likely be needed with time as details regarding the RH forecast are resolved, and it is possible that some areas will see critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region... Dry and windy conditions are also expected to persist across the Four Corners region on Friday, though some cooling is expected compared to D1/Thursday. Sustained winds are likely to remain in the 20-25 mph range, but with some increase in RH values expected and generally marginal fuel conditions across this area, no elevated delineation has been made across the region. ..Dean.. 09/21/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 01:53
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NE... ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS today, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/drying will result in an increasing fire weather threat this afternoon, and the critical area has been maintained across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. This wind/RH combination in conjunction with continued curing of finer fuels will result in a critical fire weather risk. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO/southern WY... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, northwest NM, and southern WY this afternoon, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. While much of this area could see critical meteorological conditions, fuels are generally rather marginal across this region, and confidence in a sufficient duration of critical RH is too low where somewhat drier fuels reside across northwest NM and southwest CO, so no upgrade has been made in this area. ..Dean.. 09/21/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 09/20/2017 - 13:46
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... No changes have been made to the ongoing critical area across eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and far southwest Nebraska. Sustained winds around 20-30 mph will combine with RH values around 10-15% to increase concerns across parts of the central High Plains. Fine fuels will be sufficiently dry, such that these meteorological conditions will support a critical threat Thursday. Elsewhere, the elevated area has been expanded, mainly to account for breezy/windy conditions across much of the region, in response to strong southwesterly mid-level flow along the periphery of an amplified trough across the West. Fuels in some locations are only marginally receptive to rapid fire spread; however, the strength of flow, combined with curing of fine fuels and RH values near 20%, will likely support elevated concerns. ..Picca.. 09/20/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the West on Thursday, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/mixing of a dry airmass will result in an increasing fire weather threat on Thursday, and a critical area has been introduced across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. The northern extent of the critical area is constrained by weaker wind speeds in closer proximity to the surface low, while the southern and eastern extent are constrained by uncertainty regarding the critical RH potential, and also by increasingly marginal fuel conditions. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO... Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, and northwest NM on Thursday, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. At this time, the best chance for critical wind/RH appears to be displaced to the west of the drier fuels, so no upgrade has been made for this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 09/20/2017 - 13:46
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... No changes have been made to the ongoing critical area across eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and far southwest Nebraska. Sustained winds around 20-30 mph will combine with RH values around 10-15% to increase concerns across parts of the central High Plains. Fine fuels will be sufficiently dry, such that these meteorological conditions will support a critical threat Thursday. Elsewhere, the elevated area has been expanded, mainly to account for breezy/windy conditions across much of the region, in response to strong southwesterly mid-level flow along the periphery of an amplified trough across the West. Fuels in some locations are only marginally receptive to rapid fire spread; however, the strength of flow, combined with curing of fine fuels and RH values near 20%, will likely support elevated concerns. ..Picca.. 09/20/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the West on Thursday, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/mixing of a dry airmass will result in an increasing fire weather threat on Thursday, and a critical area has been introduced across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. The northern extent of the critical area is constrained by weaker wind speeds in closer proximity to the surface low, while the southern and eastern extent are constrained by uncertainty regarding the critical RH potential, and also by increasingly marginal fuel conditions. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO... Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, and northwest NM on Thursday, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. At this time, the best chance for critical wind/RH appears to be displaced to the west of the drier fuels, so no upgrade has been made for this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

Pages