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National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
Updated: 56 min 19 sec ago

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

3 hours 38 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between high pressure in the western Atlantic and
lower pressure in northern sections of South America. This
pattern will support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near
the coast of Colombia each night this week. Wave heights within
the area of gale force winds will range between 12-16 ft. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
07N12W southwestward to 01N20W. The ITCZ crosses the equator
near 21W and remains south of the discussion area to the coast
of South America. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N
between 11W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward across the entire basin from
the Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts moderate southeasterly
winds across most of the area. Satellite imagery shows isolated
shallow convection in the SE Gulf and fair weather elsewhere.
Expect increasing winds and building seas through Wed as high
pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic. A thermal trough
will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula each evening
through mid week, drift westward across the Bay of Campeche
during overnight hours, then dissipate in the SW Gulf by late
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
a Gale Warning in effect near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of strong high pressure over the Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds between
70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Trade
wind showers are evident from satellite imagery primarily east
of 70W. The high pressure will strengthen through Wednesday,
increasing the winds and building seas east of 80W in the
Caribbean and the Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 32N40W to 28N48W to 27N56W becomes
diffuse west of 60W. Scattered moderate showers are observed
along a pre-frontal trough, and low clouds with scattered light
rain are evident along the frontal boundary. Broad high pressure
centered north of 30N prevails across the rest of the basin. The
front will become stationary during the next 12 hours and should
dissipate later today. The existing area of high pressure will
be fortified by a stronger subtropical high through mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell/ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

9 hours 21 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between high pressure in the western Atlantic and
lower pressure in northern sections of South America. This
pattern will support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near
the coast of Colombia each night this week. Wave heights within
the area of gale force winds will range between 12-16 ft. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
07N12W southwestward to 01N20W. The ITCZ crosses the equator
near 21W and remains south of the discussion area to the coast
of South America. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N
between 11W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward across the entire basin from
the Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts moderate southeasterly
winds across most of the area. Satellite imagery shows isolated
shallow convection in the SE Gulf and fair weather elsewhere.
Expect increasing winds and building seas through Wed as high
pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic. A thermal trough
will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula each evening
through mid week, drift westward across the Bay of Campeche
during overnight hours, then dissipate in the SW Gulf by late
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
a Gale Warning in effect near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of strong high pressure over the Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds between
70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Trade
wind showers are evident from satellite imagery primarily east
of 70W. The high pressure will strengthen through Wednesday,
increasing the winds and building seas east of 80W in the
Caribbean and the Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 32N40W to 28N48W to 27N56W becomes
diffuse west of 60W. Scattered moderate showers are observed
along a pre-frontal trough, and low clouds with scattered light
rain are evident along the frontal boundary. Broad high pressure
centered north of 30N prevails across the rest of the basin. The
front will become stationary during the next 12 hours and should
dissipate later today. The existing area of high pressure will
be fortified by a stronger subtropical high through mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 02/19/2018 - 18:00

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between high pressure in the western Atlantic and
lower pressure in northern sections of South America. This
pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the
coast of Colombia each night through the week. Wave heights
within the area of gale force winds will range between 12-16 ft.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ crosses the equator
near 21W and remains south of the discussion area to the coast
of South America. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N
between 11W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward across the entire basin from
the west Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds across the whole area. Satellite imagery
shows isolated shallow convection in the SE Gulf and mostly
clear weather elsewhere. Expect increasing winds and building
seas through Wed as high pressure strengthens in the western
Atlantic. A thermal trough will develop over the western Yucatan
Peninsula each evening through mid week, drift westward across
the Bay of Campeche during overnight hours, then dissipate in
the SW Gulf by late morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
a Gale Warning in effect near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of a high pressure over the Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds between
70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. The
high pressure will strengthen overnight into Wednesday, and
increase winds and build seas east of 80W in the Caribbean and
the Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of high pressure centered north of 30N prevails
across the basin. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a surface
trough that extends from 31N43W to 26N50W. A cold front has
pushed southward to roughly along 29N between 50W-65W, then it
becomes stationary as it extends northwestward to coastal
Georgia at 31N80W. Scattered low clouds are observed along the
frontal boundary. The front will become stationary overnight and
dissipate early Tuesday. The existing area of high pressure will
be fortified by a stronger subtropical high through mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 02/19/2018 - 11:28

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a high pressure in the western Atlantic and
lower pressures in northern sections of South America. This
pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the
coast of Colombia every night/early morning hours through the
week. Wave heights within the area of gale force winds will range
between 12-16 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
07N12W southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on
either side of the boundaries between 10W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1037 mb high centered
over the west Atlantic and covers the whole basin. A thermal
trough is extending across the Bay of Campeche with little to no
convection. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds across the whole area. These winds are
transporting enough low-level moisture to generate scattered
showers currently moving across the Straits of Florida while
isolated showers are noted east of 90W. Expect increasing winds
and building seas beginning today as high pressure strengthens in
the western Atlantic. The thermal trough will develop over the
western Yucatan Peninsula through mid week, drifting westward
across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and
then dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by the late morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
regarding the Gale Warning in effect for the area near the coast
of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of a high pressure over the Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds between
70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere.
The high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger one later today.
The pressure gradient associated with this stronger high system
will bring increasing winds and building seas across the eastern
and central Caribbean, and the Tropical N Atlantic waters through
mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
a 1024 mb high near 29N37W. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a
surface trough that extends from 30N44W to 27N51W. A cold front
has nudged southward to roughly along 30N between 50W-70W,
then it becomes stationary as it extends northwestward to coastal
Georgia at 31N79W. Minimal cloudiness is observed near the front.
The front will become stationary today and dissipate by early
Tuesday. The existing area of high pressure is forecast to be
fortified by stronger system through mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 02/19/2018 - 05:46

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a high pressure in the western Atlantic and
lower pressures in northern sections of S America. This pattern
supports winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia every night/early morning hours through the week. Wave
heights within the area of gale force winds will range between
12-16 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
07N12W southwestward to 03N15W and dips below the Equator at 19W
where it transitions to the ITCZ axis to 02S29W and to the coast
of S America at 03S39W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
03N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
120 nm S of the axis between 25W-29W, and within 60 nm N of the
axis between 18W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is within
30 nm of the axis between 12W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1027 mb high centered
over the Atlantic near 28N64W to a 1023 mb high centered just
west of the coast of Florida at 29N83W, and weakens as it
continues to NW Gulf. The NW part of a surface trough extends off
the NW coast of Cuba to near 23N85W. A surface trough is along the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The earlier scattered
moderate convection noted near this trough has dissipated.
Isolated showers are S of 21N and E of 94W. Isolated showers
are S of 22N between 91W-95W. Patches of fog lifting northward
are seen over the NW Gulf early this morning. Expect these patches
of fog to linger through the morning, with other patches of fog
possible to form along and near the coastal sections of the N
central and NE portions of the gulf. Both buoy observations and
scatterometer data from last night indicate generally light to
gentle east to southeast flow N of of 26N, and gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds S of 26N, except for higher winds in the
moderate to fresh range E of 88W and W of 94W. Expect increasing
winds and building seas beginning today as high pressure
strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. The thermal trough
will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula through Wed
afternoon, drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche
during the overnight hours, and then dissipate in the SW Gulf
waters by the late morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
regarding the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds
throughout. These winds continue to quickly advect patches of
mainly broken low clouds westward along with passing isolated
showers, except over the far western Caribbean from 14N-18N W of
81W, including the Gulf of Honduras, where patches of overcast
to broken low clouds contain scattered showers. Overall shower
activity across the basin has decreased during the past 24 to 48
hours as abundant dry sinking air aloft maintains is influence on
the atmosphere. This same gradient will continue to support
pulsing winds of minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are
expected elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure
will be reinforced by a stronger one today. The pressure
gradient associated with the stronger high system will bring
increasing winds and building seas across the eastern and
central Caribbean, and the Tropical N Atlantic waters through
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
a 1027 mb high center near 28N64W and a 1024 mb high center near
30N37W. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a surface trough that
extends from 28N44W to 19N45W. A backdoor type cold front has
nudged southward to roughly along 31N between 72W-80W, becoming
a stationary front northwestward to inland Georgia at 32N81W. A
pre-frontal trough is just ahead of the front between 72W-76W.
Only scattered low clouds are seen along the trough, while very
minimal cloudiness is near the front. The cold front will become
stationary today and dissipate by early Tue. Current satellite
imagery is depicting low clouds (stratus) and fog over the
extreme far northwest waters along the NE Florida coast. These
clouds and fog are slowly moving inland that coast. The existing
area of high pressure is forecast to be fortified by stronger
high pressure system through Wed.

Currently over the eastern portion of the Atlantic, extensive mid
and upper level moisture in the form of overcast to broken mid
and high level clouds is observed streaming northeastward from
northeastern S America to within 360 nm either side of a line
from 02N50W to 13N34W to 18N25W to the coast of Africa at 21N17W,
where the moisture thins out. This area of moisture and clouds
are driven by a rather strong jet stream branch that is along the
southeastern sector of a broad and persistent central Atlantic
upper level trough. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of a line from 01N37W to the Equator at 43W. Isolated showers
are possible elsewhere from the Equator to 11N to the west of
35W, and also from 14N-21N between 17W-30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/JA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 02/19/2018 - 00:39

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190639 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
and lower surface pressures in northern sections of S America.
This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force near the
coast of Colombia through early next week. Wave heights within
the area of gale force winds will range between 12-17 ft. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
07N12W southwestward to 03N15W and dips below the Equator at 19W
where it transitions to the ITCZ axis to 02S29W and to the coast
of S America at 03S39W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
03N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
120 nm S of the axis between 25W-29W, and within 60 nm N of the
axis between 18W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is within
30 nm of the axis between 12W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1027 mb high centered
over the Atlantic near 28N64W to a 1023 mb high centered just
west of the coast of Florida at 29N83W, and weakens as it
continues to NW Gulf. The NW part of a surface trough extends off
the NW coast of Cuba to near 23N85W. A surface trough is along the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The earlier scattered
moderate convection noted near this trough has dissipated.
Isolated showers are S of 21N and E of 94W. Isolated showers
are S of 22N between 91W-95W. Patches of fog lifting northward
are seen over the NW Gulf early this morning. Expect these patches
of fog to linger through the morning, with other patches of fog
possible to form along and near the coastal sections of the N
central and NE portions of the gulf. Both buoy observations and
scatterometer data from last night indicate generally light to
gentle east to southeast flow N of of 26N, and gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds S of 26N, except for higher winds in the
moderate to fresh range E of 88W and W of 94W. Expect increasing
winds and building seas beginning today as high pressure
strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. The thermal trough
will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula through Wed
afternoon, drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche
during the overnight hours, and then dissipate in the SW Gulf
waters by the late morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
regarding the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds
throughout. These winds continue to quickly advect patches of
mainly broken low clouds westward along with passing isolated
showers, except over the far western Caribbean from 14N-18N W of
81W, including the Gulf of Honduras, where patches of overcast
to broken low clouds contain scattered showers. Overall shower
activity across the basin has decreased during the past 24 to 48
hours as abundant dry sinking air aloft maintains is influence on
the atmosphere. This same gradient will continue to support
pulsing winds of minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are
expected elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure
will be reinforced by a stronger one today. The pressure
gradient associated with the stronger high system will bring
increasing winds and building seas across the eastern and
central Caribbean, and the Tropical N Atlantic waters through
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
a 1027 mb high center near 28N64W and a 1024 mb high center near
30N37W. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a surface trough that
extends from 28N44W to 19N45W. A backdoor type cold front has
nudged southward to roughly along 31N between 72W-80W, becoming
a stationary front northwestward to inland Georgia at 32N81W. A
pre-frontal trough is just ahead of the front between 72W-76W.
Only scattered low clouds are seen along the trough, while very
minimal cloudiness is near the front. The cold front will become
stationary today and dissipate by early Tue. Current satellite
imagery is depicting low clouds (stratus) and fog over the
extreme far northwest waters along the NE Florida coast. These
clouds and fog are slowly moving inland that coast. The existing
area of high pressure is forecast to be fortified by stronger
high pressure system through Wed.

Currently over the eastern portion of the Atlantic, extensive mid
and upper level moisture in the form of overcast to broken mid
and high level clouds is observed streaming northeastward from
northeastern S America to within 360 nm either side of a line
from 02N50W to 13N34W to 18N25W to the coast of Africa at 21N17W,
where the moisture thins out. This area of moisture and clouds
are driven by a rather strong jet stream branch that is along the
southeastern sector of a broad and persistent central Atlantic
upper level trough. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of a line from 01N37W to the Equator at 43W. Isolated showers
are possible elsewhere from the Equator to 11N to the west of
35W, and also from 14N-21N between 17W-30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 02/19/2018 - 00:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
and lower surface pressures in northern sections of S America.
This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force near the
coast of Colombia through early next week. Wave heights within
the area of gale force winds will range between 12-17 ft. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
07N12W southwestward to 03N15W and dips below the Equator at 19W
where it transitions to the ITCZ axis to 02S29W and to the coast
of S America at 03S39W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
03N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
120 nm S of the axis between 25W-29W, and within 60 nm N of the
axis between 18W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is within
30 nm of the axis between 12W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1027 mb high centered
over the Atlantic near 28N64W to a 1023 mb high centered just
west of the coast of Florida at 29N83W, and weakens as it
continues to NW Gulf. The NW part of a surface trough extends off
the NW coast of Cuba to near 23N85W. A surface trough is along the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The earlier scattered
moderate convection noted near this trough has dissipated.
Isolated showers are S of 21N and E of 94W. Isolated showers
are S of 22N between 91W-95W. Patches of fog lifting northward
are seen over the NW Gulf early this morning. Expect these patches
of fog to linger through the morning, with other patches of fog
possible to form along and near the coastal sections of the N
central and NE portions of the gulf. Both buoy observations and
scatterometer data from last night indicate generally light to
gentle east to southeast flow N of of 26N, and gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds S of 26N, except for higher winds in the
moderate to fresh range E of 88W and W of 94W. Expect increasing
winds and building seas beginning on Mon as high pressure
strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. The thermal trough will
develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula Mon and Tue afternoon,
drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours, and then dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by the
late morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
regarding the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds
throughout. These winds continue to quickly advect patches of
mainly broken low clouds westward along with passing isolated
showers, except over the far western Caribbean from 14N-18N W of
81W, including the Gulf of Honduras, where patches of overcast
to broken low clouds contain scattered showers. Overall shower
activity across the basin has decreased during the past 24 to 48
hours as abundant dry sinking air aloft maintains is influence on
the atmosphere. This same gradient will continue to support
pulsing winds of minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are
expected elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure
will be reinforced by a stronger one system on Mon. This stronger
system will bring increasing winds and building seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean, and the Tropical N Atlantic waters
possibly into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
a 1027 mb high center near 28N64W and a 1024 mb high center near
30N37W. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a surface trough that
extends from 28N44W to 19N45W. A backdoor type cold front has
nudged southward to roughly along 31N between 72W-80W, becoming
a stationary front northwestward to inland Georgia at 32N81W. A
pre-frontal trough is just ahead of the front between 72W-76W.
Only scattered low clouds are seen along the trough, while very
minimal cloudiness is near the front. The cold front will become
stationary today and dissipate by early Tue. Satellite imagery is
depicting low clouds and fog over the extreme far northwest
waters along the NE Florida coast. These clouds and fog are slowly
moving inland that coast. The existing area of high pressure is
forecast to be fortified by stronger high pressure system through
Wed.

Currently over the eastern portion of the Atlantic, extensive mid
and upper level moisture in the form of overcast to broken mid
and high level clouds is observed streaming northeastward from
northeastern S America to within 360 nm either side of a line
from 02N50W to 13N34W to 18N25W to the coast of Africa at 21N17W,
where the moisture thins out. This area of moisture and clouds
are driven by a rather strong jet stream branch that is along the
southeastern sector of a broad and persistent central Atlantic
upper level trough. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of a line from 01N37W to the Equator at 43W. Isolated showers are
possible elsewhere from the Equator to 11N west of 35W, and from
14N-21N between 17W-30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 02/18/2018 - 23:19

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190519 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Corrected Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South
America. This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force
near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Wave heights
within the area of gale force winds will range between 12-17 ft.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...Corrected

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
06N10W southwestward to 03N14W and dips below the Equator at 19W
where it transitions to the ITCZ axis to 02S29W and to the coast
of S America at 03S39W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
03N39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm N of the
axis between 18W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1026 mb high centered
over the Atlantic near 28N64W to 1023 mb high centered over
central Florida, and continues westward to the NW Gulf. The
earlier frontal boundary that was along the coastal plains has N
of the as a warm front, and is over eastern Texas and the southern
portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. A rather weak
surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 30N86W to 27N88W. Earlier
related shower activity has dissipated. Another surface trough
has recently emerged off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
to over the far eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers are S
of 21N and E of 94W. Areas of fog are expected over portions of
the northern and central gulf during the overnight hours and
into Mon morning. Both buoy observations and latest
scatterometer data reveal generally light to gentle east to
southeast flow N of of 26N, and gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds S of 26N, except for higher winds in the
moderate to fresh range E of 88W and W of 94W. Expect increasing
winds and building seas by early next week as high pressure
strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. The thermal trough
will develop again over the western Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon, drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche
during the overnight hours, and then dissipate in the SW Gulf
waters by the late morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
regarding the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds
throughout. These winds continue to quickly advect patches of
mainly broken low clouds westward along with quick passing
isolated showers, except over the far western Caribbean from
14N-18N W of 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras, where patches
of overcast low clouds contain scattered showers. This same
gradient will continue to support pulsing winds of minimal gale
force near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the
Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger
one system on Mon. This stronger system will bring increasing
winds and building seas across the eastern and central Caribbean,
and the Tropical N Atlantic waters possibly into the middle of
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
a 1026 mb high center near 28N64W and a 1024 mb high center near
31N34W. A weakness in the ridge was analyzed as a surface trough,
extending from 28N44W to 19N45W. The tail end of a stationary
front is along 32N from 44W-51W, while a cold front is just along
32N W of 72W. The cold front will drop southward over the NW
waters tonight and dissipate on Mon. The ridge will be reinforced
by a stronger high pressure system through Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 02/18/2018 - 18:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South
America. This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force
near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Wave heights
within the area of gale force winds will range between 12-17 ft.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
06N10W southwestward to 03N14W and dips below the Equator at 19W
where it transitions to the ITCZ axis to 02S29W and to the coast
of S America at 03S39W. 07N12W to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to 03N39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30
nm N of the axis between 18W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1026 mb high centered
over the Atlantic near 28N64W to 1023 mb high centered over
central Florida, and continues westward to the NW Gulf. The
earlier frontal boundary that was along the coastal plains has N
of the as a warm front, and is over eastern Texas and the southern
portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. A rather weak
surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 30N86W to 27N88W. Earlier
related shower activity has dissipated. Another surface trough
has recently emerged off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
to over the far eastern Bay of Campeche. Latest satellite imagery
shows a recently formed cluster of scattered moderate convection
moving northwestward within 30 nm of 92W. Isolated showers are S
of 21N and E of 94W. Areas of fog are expected over portions of
the northern and central gulf during the overnight hours and into
Mon morning. Both buoy observations and latest scatterometer data
reveal generally light to gentle east to southeast flow N of of
26N, and gentle to moderate east to southeast winds S of 26N,
except for higher winds in the moderate to fresh range E of 88W
and W of 94W. Expect increasing winds and building seas by early
next week as high pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic
Ocean. The thermal trough will develop again over the western
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, drift westward across the
eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and then
dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by the late morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
regarding the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds
throughout. These winds continue to quickly advect patches of
mainly broken low clouds westward along with quick passing
isolated showers, except over the far western Caribbean from
14N-18N W of 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras, where patches
of overcast low clouds contain scattered showers. This same
gradient will continue to support pulsing winds of minimal gale
force near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the
Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger
one system on Mon. This stronger system will bring increasing
winds and building seas across the eastern and central Caribbean,
and the Tropical N Atlantic waters possibly into the middle of
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
a 1026 mb high center near 28N64W and a 1024 mb high center near
31N34W. A weakness in the ridge was analyzed as a surface trough,
extending from 28N44W to 19N45W. The tail end of a stationary
front is along 32N from 44W-51W, while a cold front is just along
32N W of 72W. The cold front will drop southward over the NW
waters tonight and dissipate on Mon. The ridge will be reinforced
by a stronger high pressure system through Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 02/18/2018 - 11:37

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South
America. This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force
near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Wave heights
within the area of gale-force winds will range between 12-16 ft.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W
to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N39W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of
the ITCZ between 23W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered over central Florida. A frontal boundary extends
across the coastal Gulf states with little to no convection at
this time. A subtle pre-frontal trough is over the northeast
waters from 30N86W to 28N88W. Scattered showers are noted with
this trough. To the southwest, a surface trough continues moving
westward across the Bay of Campeche with no convection.
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle southeasterly winds
over the northern half of the basin while gentle to moderate
southeast winds prevail south of 25N. Expect increasing winds
and building seas by early next week as high pressure strengthens
in the western Atlantic Ocean. The thermal trough will develop
again over the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, drifting
westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight
hours, and then dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by the late
morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
regarding the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Scattered low-topped showers will continue moving across the
basin transported by moderate to fresh trades. The tight pressure
gradient between a high pressure system that is in the western
Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northern sections of South
America, will continue to support pulsing winds of minimal gale
force near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the
Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger
one system on Monday. This stronger system will bring increasing
winds and building seas across the eastern and central Caribbean,
and the Tropical N Atlantic waters possibly into the middle of
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
a 1026 mb high near 28N67W and a 1025 mb high near 29N39W. A
weakness in the ridge was analyzed as a surface trough, extending
from 28N43W to 20N44W. A frontal system extends north of the area
across the central Atlantic between 40W-60W. The eastmost portion
of the front will approach 30N during the next 24 hours with some
convection. Another weak frontal boundary will approach the west
Atlantic from the north by the same time with showers. The ridge
will be reinforced by a stronger high pressure system through
Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 02/18/2018 - 05:50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
and lower surface pressure in northern sections of South America.
This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force near
the coast of Colombia through early next week. The resultant wave
heights with the gale-force winds will range between 12-16 ft. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the southern coastal
sections of Liberia near 05N08W southwestward dipping to below
the Equator at 18W as the ITCZ axis to 03S27W and to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate isolated convection is
within 60 nm S of the ITCZ axis between 24W and 28W. Similar
convection is just to the N of the Equator within 30 nm of line
from 01N27W to 02N31W to 02N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high
pressure center located near 28N64W, to across central Florida,
to a 1023 mb nearly stationary high centered at 27N83W and
continues west-northwestward to the NW Gulf near 28N94W. A weak
surface trough is analyzed over the NE Gulf from near
Apalachicola to 28N87W to 27N89W. Isolated weak showers are
possible along the trough. Similar showers are over the extreme
southeastern gulf near NW Cuba. The ridge will continue to
maintain mainly gentle to moderate southeast winds in the western
Gulf, and light to gentle east to southeast elsewhere through
Sun night with the exception of moderate winds over the SE
waters and the Straits of Florida. Areas of dense fog producing
reduced visibility to below 1 nm are again expected through this
morning mainly N of 27N, persisting into this afternoon over
some locations. Isolated showers are over some portions of the
eastern gulf and far SE waters near the Straits of Florida.
Expect increasing winds and building seas by early next week as
high pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. A
thermal trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula
during each afternoon. The trough will drift westward across the
eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and then
dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Patches of broken to at times overcast low clouds with isolated
showers are quickly moving westward across the western and central
Caribbean N of about 14N, including waters adjacent to the
southwest tip of Haiti and waters just east and west of Jamaica.
Similar clouds with brief passing isolated showers are noted
over portions of the eastern Caribbean. Over the eastern
Caribbean, the moisture coverage has decreased since yesterday as
very dry air aloft has moved into that portion of the sea.

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system that is
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northern
sections of South America, will continue to support pulsing winds
of minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia through early
next week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected
elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be
reinforced by a stronger high pressure system on Mon. The stronger
system will bring increasing winds and building seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea, and the Tropical N Atlantic
waters possibly into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic upper level trough enters the area through
32N25W, and stretches southwestward to an elongated cyclonic
circulation that is dropping southward near 24N43W, and continues
southwestward to 15N51W where it becomes a cyclonic shear axis
westward to 14N58W and to the eastern Caribbean Sea near 14N66W.
A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 26N58W, and another one
extends from near 29N43W to 24N44W to 19N44W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm to the E of the second
trough, and within 60 nm W of the same trough from 20N to 23N.
Isolated showers are near the first trough. Other than these
troughs, the Atlantic is dominated by high pressure as a nearly
1026 mb high center is near 28N64.5W, and another 1026 mb high
center is over the eastern Atlantic near 29N38W. A ridge extends
from the 1026 mb high at 28N64.5W westward to across central
Florida. In the upper levels, an anticyclone is near 22N66W, with
its broad anticyclonic flow covering just about the entire western
half of the area. An upper level trough has entered the far NW
corner of the area. Subsidence and dry air aloft associated with
the upper anticyclone is suppressing any deep convection from
developing. The upper trough is void of any shower activity as it
nudges into a very stable atmospheric environment. Isolated
showers are seen over the waters between Andros Island and the
Straits of Florida. The aforementioned high pressure ridge will
retreat eastward today allowing for a weak cold front to move off
the southeastern United States coast. The front will quickly
become stationary and dissipate across the northwest portion on
Mon. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail to
the north of the ridge, with moderate to fresh winds expected
generally to the south of 25N, except becoming strong along the
north coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the
Windward Passage each evening. The ridge will be reinforced by a
stronger high pressure system on Mon through Tue.

Over the eastern portion of the Atlantic, extensive mid and upper
level moisture in the form of overcast to broken mid and high
level clouds are observed streaming northeastward from
northeastern S America to within 300 nm either side of a line
from 05N51W to 13N37W to 17N28W to 18N23W where the moisture thins
out allowing for the clouds to transition to mainly scattered high
clouds to inland the coast of Africa at 19N16W. This area of
moisture and clouds are driven by a rather strong jet stream
branch that is along the southeast sector of the upper level
trough described above. Scattered moderate convection is along
and just inland the coast of S America between 43W-47W. Isolated
showers are possible elsewhere from 02N-11N between 41W-51W, and
also from 10N-19N between 30W-41W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
JA/ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 02/18/2018 - 03:27

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180927 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
427 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Updated Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressure in northern sections of South
America, should continue to support winds pulsing to minimal
gale force near the coast of Colombia through early next week.
The resultant wave heights with the gale force NE to E winds are
forecast to range from 12 to 16 feet, except building to 12 to 18
ft Mon. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...Updated

The monsoon trough axis extends from the southern coastal
sections of Liberia near 05N08W southwestward dipping to below
the Equator at 18W as the ITCZ axis to 03S27W and to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate isolated convection is
within 60 nm S of the ITCZ axis between 24W and 28W. Similar
convection is just to the N of the Equator within 30 nm of line
from 01N27W to 02N31W to 02N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high
pressure center located near 28N64W, to across central Florida,
to a 1023 mb nearly stationary high centered at 27N83W and
continues west-northwestward to the NW Gulf near 28N94W. A weak
surface trough is analyzed over the NE Gulf from near
Apalachicola to 28N87W to 27N89W. Isolated weak showers are
possible along the trough. Similar showers are over the extreme
southeastern gulf near NW Cuba. The ridge will continue to
maintain mainly gentle to moderate southeast winds in the western
Gulf, and light to gentle east to southeast elsewhere through
Sun night with the exception of moderate winds over the SE
waters and the Straits of Florida. Areas of dense fog producing
reduced visibility to below 1 nm are again expected through this
morning mainly N of 27N, persisting into this afternoon over
some locations. Isolated showers are over some portions of the
eastern gulf and far SE waters near the Straits of Florida.
Expect increasing winds and building seas by early next week as
high pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. A
thermal trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula
during each afternoon. The trough will drift westward across the
eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and then
dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Patches of broken to at times overcast low clouds with isolated
showers are quickly moving westward across the western and central
Caribbean N of about 14N, including waters adjacent to the
southwest tip of Haiti and waters just east and west of Jamaica.
Similar clouds with brief passing isolated showers are noted
over portions of the eastern Caribbean. Over the eastern
Caribbean, the moisture coverage has decreased since yesterday as
very dry air aloft has moved into that portion of the sea.

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system that is
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northern
sections of South America, will continue to support pulsing winds
of minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia through early
next week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected
elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be
reinforced by a stronger high pressure system on Mon. The stronger
system will bring increasing winds and building seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea, and the Tropical N Atlantic
waters possibly into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic upper level trough enters the area through
32N25W, and stretches southwestward to an elongated cyclonic
circulation that is dropping southward near 24N43W, and continues
southwestward to 15N51W where it becomes a cyclonic shear axis
westward to 14N58W and to the eastern Caribbean Sea near 14N66W.
A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 26N58W, and another one
extends from near 29N43W to 24N44W to 19N44W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm to the E of the second
trough, and within 60 nm W of the same trough from 20N to 23N.
Isolated showers are near the first trough. Other than these
troughs, the Atlantic is dominated by high pressure as a nearly
1026 mb high center is near 28N64.5W, and another 1026 mb high
center is over the eastern Atlantic near 29N38W. A ridge extends
from the 1026 mb high at 28N64.5W westward to across central
Florida. In the upper levels, an anticyclone is near 22N66W, with
its broad anticyclonic flow covering just about the entire western
half of the area. An upper level trough has entered the far NW
corner of the area. Subsidence and dry air aloft associated with
the upper anticyclone is suppressing any deep convection from
developing. The upper trough is void of any shower activity as it
nudges into a very stable atmospheric environment. Isolated
showers are seen over the waters between Andros Island and the
Straits of Florida. The aforementioned high pressure ridge will
retreat eastward today allowing for a weak cold front to move off
the southeastern United States coast. The front will quickly
become stationary and dissipate across the northwest portion on
Mon. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail to
the north of the ridge, with moderate to fresh winds expected
generally to the south of 25N, except becoming strong along the
north coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the
Windward Passage each evening. The ridge will be reinforced by a
stronger high pressure system on Mon through Tue.

Over the eastern portion of the Atlantic, extensive mid and upper
level moisture in the form of overcast to broken mid and high
level clouds are observed streaming northeastward from
northeastern S America to within 300 nm either side of a line
from 05N51W to 13N37W to 17N28W to 18N23W where the moisture thins
out allowing for the clouds to transition to mainly scattered high
clouds to inland the coast of Africa at 19N16W. This area of
moisture and clouds are driven by a rather strong jet stream
branch that is along the southeast sector of the upper level
trough described above. Scattered moderate convection is along
and just inland the coast of S America between 43W-47W. Isolated
showers are possible elsewhere from 02N-11N between 41W-51W, and
also from 10N-19N between 30W-41W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/17/2018 - 23:51

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressure in northern sections of South
America, should continue to support winds pulsing to minimal
gale force near the coast of Colombia through early next week.
The resultant wave heights with the gale force NE to E winds are
forecast to range from 12 to 16 feet, except building to 12 to 18
ft Mon. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the southern coastal
sections of Liberia near 05N08W southwestward dipping to below
the Equator at 18W as the ITCZ axis to 03S27W and to the coast of
Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
S of the ITCZ axis between 24W and 28W. Similar convection is
just to the N of the Equator within 30 nm of line from 01N27W to
02N31W to 02N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high
pressure center located near 28N64W, to across central Florida,
to a 1023 mb nearly stationary high centered at 27N83W and
continues west-northwestward to the NW Gulf near 28N94W. A weak
surface trough is analyzed over the NE Gulf from near
Apalachicola to 28N87W to 27N89W. Isolated weak showers are
possible along the trough. Similar showers are over the extreme
southeastern gulf near NW Cuba. The ridge will continue to
maintain mainly gentle to moderate southeast winds in the western
Gulf, and light to gentle east to southeast elsewhere through Sun
night with the exception of moderate winds in the SE waters and
the Straits of Florida. Areas of dense fog producing reduced
visibility to below 1 nm are again expected through this morning
mainly N of 27N, persisting into this afternoon over some
locations. Isolated showers are over some portions of the eastern
gulf and far SE waters near the Straits of Florida. Expect
increasing winds and building seas by early next week as high
pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. A thermal
trough will develop in the western Yucatan Peninsula during each
afternoon. The trough will drift westward across the eastern Bay
of Campeche during the overnight hours, and then dissipate in the
SW Gulf waters by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Patches of broken to at times overcast low clouds with isolated
showers are quickly moving westward across the western and central
Caribbean N of about 14N, including waters adjacent to the
southwest tip of Haiti and waters just east and west of Jamaica.
Similar clouds with brief passing isolated showers are noted
over portions of the eastern Caribbean. Over the eastern
Caribbean, the moisture coverage has decreased since yesterday as
very dry aloft has moved into that portion of the sea.

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system that is
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northern
sections of South America, will continue to support pulsing winds
of minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia through early
next week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected
elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be
reinforced by a stronger high pressure system on Mon. The stronger
system will bring increasing winds and building seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea, and the Tropical N Atlantic
waters possibly into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic upper level trough enters the area through
32N25W, and stretches southwestward to an elongated cyclonic
circulation that is dropping southward near 24N43W, and continues
southwestward to 15N51W where it becomes a cyclonic shear axis
westward to 14N58W and to the eastern Caribbean Sea near 14N66W.
A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 26N58W, and another one
extends from near 29N43W to 24N44W to 19N44W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm to the E of the second
trough, and within 60 nm W of the same trough from 20N to 23N.
Isolated showers are near the first trough. Other than these
troughs, the Atlantic is dominated by high pressure as a nearly
1026 mb high center is near 28N64.5W, and another 1026 mb high
center is over the eastern Atlantic near 29N38W. A ridge extends
from the 1026 mb high at 28N64.5W westward to across central
Florida. In the upper levels, an anticyclone is near 22N66W, with
its broad anticyclonic flow covering just about the entire western
half of the area. An upper level trough has entered the far NW
corner of the area. Subsidence and dry air aloft associated with
the upper anticyclone is suppressing any deep convection from
developing. The upper trough is void of any shower activity as it
nudges into a very stable atmospheric environment. Isolated
showers are seen over the waters between Andros Island and the
Straits of Florida. The aforementioned high pressure ridge will
retreat eastward today allowing for a weak cold front to move off
the southeastern United States coast. The front will quickly
become stationary and dissipate across the northwest portion on
Mon. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail to
the north of the ridge, with moderate to fresh winds expected
generally to the south of 25N, except becoming strong along the
north coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the
Windward Passage each evening. The ridge will be reinforced by a
stronger high pressure system on Mon through Tue.

Over the eastern portion of the Atlantic, extensive mid and upper
level moisture in the form of overcast to broken mid and high
level clouds are observed streaming northeastward from
northeastern S America to within 300 nm either side of a line
from 05N51W to 13N37W to 17N28W to 18N23W where the moisture thins
out allowing for the clouds to transition to mainly scattered high
clouds to inland the coast of Africa at 19N16W. This area of
moisture and clouds are driven by a rather jet stream branch that
is along the southeast sector of the upper level trough described
above. Scattered moderate convection is along and just inland the
coast of S America between 43W-47W. Isolated showers are possible
elsewhere from 02N-11N between 41W-51W, and also from 10N-19N
between 30W-41W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/17/2018 - 18:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressure in northern sections of South
America, should continue to support winds pulsing to minimal
gale-force near the coast of Colombia through early next week.
The resultant wave heights with the gale force NE to E winds are
forecast to range from 12 to 16 feet, building to 12 to 18 ft Mon.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the southern coastal
sections of Liberia near 05N08W southwestward to 03N14W and
dips to 01N18W, where it dips to below the Equator as the ITCZ
axis to 02S28W and to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Numerous
strong convection is well S of the coast of Africa and monsoon
trough from 01S to 04N between the prime meridian and 05W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of line from 01N27W
to 01N31W to 02N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high
pressure center located near 27N66W, to central Florida, to
26N90W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the western gulf near 25N95W.
The ridge will continue to maintain mainly gentle to moderate
southeast winds in the western Gulf, and light to gentle east to
southeast elsewhere through Sun night with the exception of
moderate winds in the SE waters and the Straits of Florida. Areas
of dense fog producing reduced visibility to below 1 nm are again
expected to form tonight mainly N of 27N and persist into Sun
afternoon in some locations. Isolated showers are over some
portions of the eastern gulf and far SE waters near the Straits of
Florida. Expect increasing winds and building seas by early next
week as high pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. A
thermal trough will develop in the western Yucatan Peninsula
during each afternoon. The trough will drift westward across the
eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and then
dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Patches of broken to at times overcast low clouds with isolated
showers are quickly moving westward across the western and central
Caribbean N of about 14N, and also over portions of the eastern
Caribbean.

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system that is
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northern
sections of South America, will continue to support pulsing winds
of minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia through early
next week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected
elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be
reinforced by a stronger high pressure system on Mon. The stronger
system will bring increasing winds and building seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea, and the Tropical N Atlantic
waters possibly into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 25N45W cyclonic circulation
center, to 17N50W, to 13N61W in the SE Caribbean Sea. A surface
trough extends from 31N50W to 26N59W, and another one extends
from near 31N45W to 24N45W 26N47W. A second surface trough is
along 45W from 24N to 31N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are noted near the second trough from 20N to 26N between 40W and
45W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
to the N of 17N and to the W of 50W. A 1026 mb high pressure
center is near 27N66W.

An E to W ridge along 27N, will shift gradually N to be along 28N
tonight, and then retract eastward, allowing a weak cold front to
move off the southeast United States on Sun. The front will stall
quickly and dissipate across the NW waters on Mon. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail north of the ridge, with moderate
to fresh winds expected generally south of 25N, except becoming
strong along the north coast of Hispaniola and the northern
approach to the Windward Passage each evening. The ridge will be
reinforced by a stronger high pressure system on Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/17/2018 - 11:29

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1229 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressure in northern sections of South
America, should continue to support winds pulsing to minimal
gale-force near the coast of Colombia through Sunday. The
resultant wave heights with the gale-force winds are forecast to
range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Liberia near 05N08W, to the Equator along 18W. The ITCZ
continues from the Equator along 18W, to 02S28W, to 04S33W, and
to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong rainshowers are from 04N southward between the
Prime Meridian and 01W. widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 01N to 03N between 08W and 11W. isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward.
Upper level SW wind flow is to the SE of the line that passes
through 24N16W 21N40W, to 16N50W and to 14N63W in the Caribbean
Sea.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high
pressure center that is near 27N66W, to central Florida, to 26N90W
in the Gulf of Mexico, to 21N98W in interior sections of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf region this weekend producing
mainly gentle-to-moderate winds in the western Gulf, and light-
to-gentle winds in the eastern Gulf, with the exception of
moderate winds in the SE waters and the Straits of Florida.
Expect increasing winds and building seas by early next week as
high pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic Ocean. A
thermal trough will develop in the western Yucatan Peninsula
during each afternoon. The trough will drift westward across the
eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and then
dissipate in the southwest Gulf waters by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 17/1200 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.39 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands, 0.18 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.07 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica, and 0.03 in Guadeloupe.

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system that is
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northern
sections of South America, will continue to support pulsing winds
of minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia through the
forecast period. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected
elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be
reinforced by a stronger system on Monday. The stronger system
will bring increasing winds and building seas across the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea, and the Tropical N Atlantic waters from
Monday through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 25N45W cyclonic circulation
center, to 17N50W, to 13N61W in the SE Caribbean Sea. One surface
trough is along 31N31W 29N38W 28N45W 26N47W. A second surface
trough is along 26N45W 23N44W 20N44W. isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 22N to 30N between 38W and 46W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 17N northward from 50W westward. A 1026 mb high pressure
center is near 27N66W.

An Atlantic Ocean ridge, E-to-W along 27N, will shift gradually N
to be along 28N tonight, and then retract eastward, allowing a
weak cold front to move off the southeast United States on Sunday.
The front will stall quickly and dissipate across the
northwestern waters on Monday. Gentle-to-moderate winds will
prevail north of the ridge, with moderate-to-fresh winds expected
generally south of 25N, except becoming strong along the north
coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the Windward
Passage each evening. The ridge will be reinforced by a stronger
high pressure system on Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/17/2018 - 06:07

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressure in northern sections of South
America, should continue to support winds pulsing to minimal
gale-force near the coast of Colombia through Sunday. The
resultant wave heights with the gale-force winds are forecast to
range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and near Liberia near 07N11W, to the Equator along
21W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 21W, to 01S30W, to
02S38W, and to the coast of Brazil near 03S31W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 10N
southward. Upper level SW wind flow is to the SE of the line that
passes through 22N17W 20N40W, to 15N65W in the Caribbean Sea.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 27N75W,
to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 27N83W along the
Florida west coast, southwestward to Mexico near 20N97W.

Weak high pressure will persist across the E Gulf through Saturday,
when a weak cold front will stall E to W across the northern and
northwest waters. The cold front will retreat northwestward on
Sunday night into Monday. Locally dense fog will linger north of
27N west of 91W through the morning hours. A thermal trough will
develop in the western Yucatan Peninsula during each afternoon,
drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours, and then dissipate in the southwestern corner of
the Gulf of Mexico by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.09 in Guadeloupe.

An Atlantic Ocean ridge, extending E-to-W along 27N-28N, will
maintain strong-to near gale-force trade winds across the central
and southwestern Caribbean Sea through the weekend, with nocturnal
gale-force wind conditions along the northwestern coast of
Colombia. Fresh-to-locally strong trade winds are expected
elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. Strong high pressure across
the NW Atlantic Ocean will build S across the region from Sunday
night through Wednesday, to produce strong trade winds across the
eastern Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 25N45W cyclonic circulation
center, to 17N50W, to 13N61W in the SE Caribbean Sea. Widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers
are from 24N to 30N between 40W and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean ridge, E-to-W along 27N, will shift gradually N
to along 28N on Saturday night, and then retract eastward,
allowing a weak cold front to move off the southeast United States
on Sunday. The front will stall quickly and dissipate across the
northwestern waters on Monday. Gentle-to- moderate winds will
prevail north of the ridge, with moderate-to- fresh winds expected
generally south of 25N, except becoming strong along the north
coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the Windward
Passage each evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/17/2018 - 00:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a high pressure system over the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over northern South America should continue to
support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia through Sun. The resultant waveheights with the gale
force winds are forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W
and continues to 01N20W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates the ITCZ begins and dips to S of the Equator at 23W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S
of the axis between 20W-23W. Scattered moderate convection is
S of the axis within 30 nm of 02N14W, and also N of the axis
within 30 nm of line from 02N25W to 03N30W to 04N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The western extension of Atlantic high pressure across the area
is maintaining pretty tranquil weather conditions throughout the
basin. At the surface, a 1022 mb high center is analyzed at
27N88W. In addition, satellite water vapor imagery depicts
abundant dry air in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere.
Surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that the
winds are light and generally southeast or southerly across much
of the area. Observed waveheights are in the 3 to 5 ft range
throughout, and little change is expected through Sun. A weak
surface trough extends from northern Florida southwestward to
over the far NE Gulf at 29N84W and to near 27.5N87W. Only
isolated showers are near this trough. Other isolated showers
are noted over some portions of the far SE waters of the gulf.
Areas of dense fog are expected over portions of the gulf mainly N
of about 27N during the morning hours producing sharply reduced
visibilities. Little change in the present synoptic pattern is
expected through Sun, however, winds and seas are forecast to
increase by early next week when high pressure strengthens over
the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Only patches of clouds and embedded quick moving isolated showers
are seen across the Caribbean within patches of low-level
moisture. The trade winds in the area are fresh to strong, and
they are even stronger near the coast of Colombia as discussed
above. These winds are occurring due to the tight pressure
gradient between a 1025 mb high over the western Atlantic and the
typical lower pressures found over northern S America. No
significant changes are expected to occur today, however, winds
and seas will likely increase over the eastern and central
Caribbean on Sun and into early next week due to a tighter
pressure gradient attributed to stronger high pressure forecast to
build N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tranquil conditions and fairly light winds are occurring across
the western Atlantic supported by a surface ridge and dry and
stable air aloft. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low
and accompanying surface trough is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 25N-28N between 42W-45W. Scattered
moderate convection, decreasing in coverage, is observed over the
deep tropics from 03N-09N between 43W-48W as this activity developed
from low-level convergence in that area. The activity is being
further aided aloft by a nearby upper jet stream branch. No
significant weather is occurring over the eastern Atlantic as
atmospheric conditions are rather stable. Isolated to scattered
showers moving quickly westward are present S of 25N W of 59W.
This activity is affecting the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico
and immediate surrounding islands. A steady stream of mid and
upper level moisture in the form of broken mid and upper level
clouds is seen streaming northeastward from northeastern S America
to within 220 nm either side of line from 05N50W to 11N37W to
14N26W and to inland the African coast at 17N16W. Isolated showers
are possible elsewhere from 02N-10N between 40W and the coast of
S America, and also from 10N-18N between 20W-35W.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 02/16/2018 - 22:33

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170433 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Correceted Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a high pressure system over the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over northern South America should continue to
support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia through Sun. The resultant with the gale force winds
are forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W
and continues to 01N19W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates the ITCZ begins and dips to S of the Equator at 23W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
S of the axis between 12W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm S of the axis between 20W-23W, and also N of the
axis within 30 nm of line from 02N24W to 03N28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

The western extension of Atlantic high pressure across the area
is maintaining pretty tranquil weather conditions throughout the
basin. In addition, satellite water vapor imagery depicts
abundant dry air in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere.
Surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that the
winds are light and generally southeast or southerly across much
of the area. Observed waveheights are in the 3 to 5 ft range
throughout, and little change is expected through Sun. A weak
surface trough extends into the NE Gulf from the Florida
panhandle along a position from near 30N85W southwestward to
near 27N87W. Only isolated showers are near this trough. Areas
of dense fog are expected over portions of gulf mainly N of
about 27N tonight into Sat producing sharply reduced
visibilities. Little change in the present synoptic pattern is
expected through Sun, however, winds and seas are forecast to
increase by early next week when high pressure strengthens over
the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Only patches of clouds and embedded quick-moving isolated showers
are seen across the Caribbean Sea today. The trade winds in the
area are fresh to strong, and they are even stronger near the
coast of Colombia as discussed above. These winds are occurring
due to the tight pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high over
the western Atlantic and the typical lower pressures found over
northern South America. No significant changes are expected to
occur on Saturday, but winds and seas will likely increase over
the eastern and central Caribbean on Sun and early next week when
the gradient tightens from stronger high pressure that builds to
the N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tranquil conditions and fairly light winds are occurring across
the western Atlantic supported by a surface ridge and dry and
stable air aloft. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low
and accompanying surface trough is producing scattered moderate
convection from 28N-32N between 41W- 45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted over the deep tropics from
2N-6N between 43W-50W in association with a surface trough and
diffluent flow aloft. No significant weather is occurring over
the eastern Atlantic, but earlier scatterometer data indicated
that the trade wind flow is fresh to strong south of about 20N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 02/16/2018 - 22:19

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170419 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Correceted Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a high pressure system over the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over northern South America should continue to
support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia through Sun. The resultant with the gale force winds
are forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W
and continues to 01N19W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates the ITCZ begins and dips to S of the Equator at 23W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
S of the axis between 12W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm S of the axis between 20W-23W, and also N of the
axis within 30 nm of line from 02N24W to 03N28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

The western extension of Atlantic high pressure across the area
is maintaining pretty tranquil weather conditions throughout the
basin. In addition, satellite water vapor imagery depicts
abundant dry air in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere.
Surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that the
winds are light and generally southeast or southerly across much
of the area. Observed waveheights are in the 3 to 5 ft range
throughout, and little change is expected through Sun. A weak
surface trough extends into the NE Gulf from the Florida
panhandle along a position from near 30N85W southwestward to
near 27N87W. Only isolated showers are near this trough. Areas
of dense fog are expected over portions of gulf mainly N of
about 27N tonight into Sat producing sharply reduced
visibilities. Little change in the present synoptic pattern is
expected through Sun, however, winds and seas are forecast to
increase by early next week when high pressure strengthens over
the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Only patches of clouds and embedded quick-moving isolated showers
are seen across the Caribbean Sea today. The trade winds in the
area are fresh to strong, and they are even stronger near the
coast of Colombia as discussed above. These winds are occurring
due to the tight pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high over
the western Atlantic and the typical lower pressures found over
northern South America. No significant changes are expected to
occur on Saturday, but winds and seas will likely increase over
the eastern and central Caribbean on Sun and early next week when
the gradient tightens from stronger high pressure that builds to
the N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tranquil conditions and fairly light winds are occurring across
the western Atlantic supported by a surface ridge and dry and
stable air aloft. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low
and accompanying surface trough is producing scattered moderate
convection from 28N-32N between 41W- 45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong is noted over the deep tropics from 2N-6N between
43W-50W in association with a surface trough and diffluent flow
aloft. No significant weather is occurring over the eastern
Atlantic, but earlier scatterometer data indicated that the trade
wind flow is fresh to strong south of about 20N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 02/16/2018 - 18:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a high pressure system over the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over northern South America should continue to
support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia through Sun. The resultant with the gale force winds
are forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W
and continues to 01N19W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates the ITCZ begins and dips to S of the Equator at 23W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
S of the axis between 12W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm S of the axis between 20W-23W, and also N of the
axis within 30 nm of line from 02N24W to 03N28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The western extension of Atlantic across the area is maintaining
pretty tranquil weather conditions throughout the basin. In
addition, satellite water vapor imagery depicts abundant dry air
in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Surface
observations and scatterometer data indicate that the winds are
light and generally southeast or southerly across much of the
area. Observed waveheights are in the 3 to 5 ft range throughout,
and little change is expected through Sun. A weak surface trough
extends into the NE Gulf from the Florida panhandle along a
position from near 30N85W southwestward to near 27N87W. Only
isolated showers are near this trough. Areas of dense fog are
expected over portions of gulf mainly N of about 27N tonight into
Sat producing sharply reduced visibilities. Little change in the
present synoptic pattern is expected through Sun, however, winds
and seas are forecast to increase by early next week when high
pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Only patches of clouds and embedded quick-moving isolated showers
are seen across the Caribbean Sea today. The trade winds in the
area are fresh to strong, and they are even stronger near the
coast of Colombia as discussed above. These winds are occurring
due to the tight pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high over
the western Atlantic and the typical lower pressures found over
northern South America. No significant changes are expected to
occur on Saturday, but winds and seas will likely increase over
the eastern and central Caribbean on Sun and early next week when
the gradient tightens from stronger high pressure that builds to
the N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tranquil conditions and fairly light winds are occurring across
the western Atlantic supported by a surface ridge and dry and
stable air aloft. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low
and accompanying surface trough is producing scattered moderate
convection from 28N-32N between 41W- 45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong is noted over the deep tropics from 2N-6N between
43W-50W in association with a surface trough and diffluent flow
aloft. No significant weather is occurring over the eastern
Atlantic, but earlier scatterometer data indicated that the trade
wind flow is fresh to strong south of about 20N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
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