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National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
Updated: 37 min 52 sec ago

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

1 hour 5 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and the low
pressure over the coast of Colombia. This will result in gale-
force winds pulsing each night along the coast of Colombia and
portions of the southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 04N08W and
extends to 01N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast
of South America near 02S41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is along the monsoon trough and the ITCZ from 04S-05N
between 04W-28W. Similar convection is north of the ITCZ from
03S-01N between 34W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Central Florida to the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 27N88W, where it transitions as a
warm front to a surface 1011 mb low pressure near 26N95W. A
trough extends south of the low to 21N95W. Overcast low stratus
and fog are noted west of the low pressure and the surface trough.
Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds
north of the fronts, while gentle to moderate southerly winds
prevail across the remainder of the basin.

The frontal boundary will push northward to the Gulf coast tonight.
A new cold front will emerge off of the Texas coast Wed and then
stall from southeast Louisiana to Tampico Mexico by early Thu,
before lifting north again as a warm front through Fri. Looking
ahead, another cold front should move off the Texas coast by late
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevail over much of the
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere
continues to dominate the region.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of
Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sat.
N to NE swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward
and Leeward Islands late in the week. No significant cold frontal
passages are expected for at least the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 29N74W. A
stationary front continues from that point to central Florida
near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high over the W Atlantic near 27N71W, and a 1025 mb high over the
E Atlantic near 32N20W. A weak dissipating front extends southwest
to 26N56W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across
the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the
central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N66W to 30N75W, where it transitions
to a stationary front to Cape Canaveral Florida. The portion of
the front W of 78W will lift N of the area as a warm front through
early Wed, while the portion east of 78W dissipates. A ridge of
high pressure will become established along 28N through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

7 hours 51 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing
each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the
southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. A gale is presently on
going and is forecast to end shortly on 19/1200 UTC. Please refer
to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 07N11W and
extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W
to the coast of South America near 03S42W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 06N-
04S between 05W-26W. Similar convection is along the ITCZ from
01N-03S between 36W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 19/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from Melbourne
Florida to Sarasota Florida to the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 27N90W to the NW Gulf near 26N95W to the Bay of Campeche
near 19N91W. Overcast low stratus and fog are noted northwest of
front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly
winds north of the fronts, while gentle to moderate southerly
winds prevail across the remainder of the basin.

The front will lift north as a warm front today, ahead of a cold
front moving off the Texas coast late tonight. The cold front will
stall from southeast Louisiana to Tampico Mexico Wed night into
early Thu, before lifting north again as a warm front through Fri.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the Texas coast
by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere
continues to dominate the region.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of
Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sat.
NE to E swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward
and Leeward Islands late in the week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to 30N74W. A
stationary front continues to Melbourne Florida near 28N81W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Surface ridging
prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high over the
W Atlantic near 27N67W, and a 1025 mb high over the E Atlantic
near 34N21W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds
across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the
central and eastern Atlantic.

Over the W Atlantic, the front will stall along 27N today. The
portion of the front W of 75W will lift N of the area as a warm
front through early Wed, while the portion east of 75W dissipates
and high pressure builds near Bermuda. The high pressure will
shift SW to halfway between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda
through Sat as a strong frontal boundary moves though the central
Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 23:34

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing
each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the
southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. A gale is presently on
going and is forecast to end on 19/1200 UTC. Please refer to the
latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 06N10W and
extends to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to
the coast of South America near 03S41W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 05N-
02S between 06W-23W. Similar convection is along the ITCZ from
01N-03S between 36W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Cocoa Beach Florida to Tampa Florida to
the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N89W. A stationary front
continues to the NW Gulf near 26N94W to 23N95W to the Bay of
Campeche near 20N94W. Overcast low stratus and fog are noted
northwest of front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong northerly winds north of the fronts, while gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

The entire front will stall tonight and then lift N toward the NW
Gulf states through Tue evening before moving off the Texas coast
again early Wed and stalling over the western Gulf through Thu.
Expect strong to near gale force NE-E winds N of 25N and W of the
front through Tue. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected W of
the cold front again on Wed. Return moderate to fresh flow will
dominate across the gulf Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere
continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central
Caribbean through the coming weekend, reaching minimal gale force
along the coast of Colombia at night each night except Wed night.
Strong winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters
through the coming weekend and westward past Jamaica starting Tue
night as strong high pres builds N of the area. Strong to near
gale force E to SE winds are also expected across the Caribbean
waters S of 20N W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through
Sat night. NE to E swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the
Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week continuing through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to Cocoa Beach
near 28N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high over the central Atlantic near 25N51W, and a 1028 mb high
over the E Atlantic near 33N23W. This pattern maintains gentle to
moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh
winds over the central and eastern Atlantic.

Over the W Atlantic, the front will stall over the waters N of 27N
on Tue. The western part of the front will then lift N by Tue
night, while the eastern part will continue to move S-SE until
dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. Fresh to strong winds
associated with the front are expected over the NW forecast waters
Tue and Wed. A ridge will build again by mid week and will
prevail through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 17:34

000
AXNT20 KNHC 182334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing
each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the
southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. Please refer to the
latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 06N10W and
extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is along the monsoon trough between 10W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a frontal boundary extends across the basin. It is
analyzed as a cold front from 30N83W to 26N91W, then it becomes
stationary from that point to 21N95W. Low stratus and fog are
noted northwest of front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong northerly winds north of the fronts, while gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

The cold front will reach from Tarpon Springs, Florida to the
central gulf to near 26N94W tonight where it will completely
become stationary. The front will then lift north toward the
northwest Gulf states through Tuesday evening before moving off
the Texas coast again early Wednesday and stalling over the
northwest Gulf through the end of the week. Expect strong to near
gale-force easterly winds north of 22N and west of the front
through Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected west of the cold front on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere
continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over
the S central Caribbean through the weekend, reaching minimal
gale force along the coast of Colombia each night through mid-week.
Strong winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters
through the weekend and westward past Jamaica starting Tuesday
night as strong high pressure builds north of the area. Strong to
locally near gale-force easterly winds are also expected across
the Caribbean waters west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras,
through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb
high near 27N67W, and a 1025 mb high near 28N38W. This pattern
maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic,
and moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern
Atlantic.

The ridge will prevail across most of the basin maintaining the
same scenario. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast
this evening, then stall over the waters north of 27N Tue. The
western part of the front will lift north by Tuesday night, while
the eastern part is forecast to move southeasterly until
dissipating over the southeast waters by mid-week. A surface ridge
will build again and prevail through Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 12:08

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
108 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 08N13W and
extends to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of South America near 01S44W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is south of the monsoon trough from 02N-06N
between 08W- 18W. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection
is observed from 00N-02N between 22W-25W and near the coast of
Brazil from 03S-00N between 37W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 30N85W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N94W to the Bay of
Campeche near 19N94W. Low stratus and fog are W of front. 20-25
kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder of the basin
has 10-20 kt southeast to south flow as a high pressure over the
western Atlantic extends over the E Gulf waters.

A cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle to the central
Bay of Campeche will reach from Tarpon Springs, Florida to the
central gulf to the Bay of Campeche late today as it becomes
stationary. The front will then lift N toward the NW Gulf states
through Tue evening before moving off the Texas coast again early
Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf through Fri. Expect fresh to
strong NE-E winds N of 22N and W of the front through Tue morning.
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected W of the cold front on
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the basin.
Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico moving W with the tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-
to-upper levels continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central
Caribbean through late Fri, reaching minimal gale force along the
coast of Colombia at night each night except Wed night. Strong
winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters through
late today and westward past Jamaica by Tue night as strong high
pres builds N of the area. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also
expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf
of Honduras, through Fri. NE to E swell will build over Atlantic
waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week
continuing through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N24W. This
pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western
Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern
Atlantic.

A ridge extending westward over the forecast area is maintaining
gentle to moderate wind flow across the region, increasing to
moderate to fresh offshore of northern Florida. A cold front will
move off the NE Florida coast this evening, then stall over the
waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the front will lift N by
Tue night, while the eastern part is forecast to move S-SE until
dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. A ridge will build again by
mid week and will prevail through Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 02/18/2019 - 05:22

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181122
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
Gale-force winds began on 18/0900 UTC from 11N-13N between 73W-
75W, with seas reaching 11 ft. Please refer to the latest
Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 09N13W and
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N28W to the
coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 03N-06N between 08W-18W, and from 00N-04S between 08W-17W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 01N-02S
between 40W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, the tail end of a cold front extends from the
Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N95W
to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Low stratus and fog are W of
front. 20-25 kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder
of the basin has 10-20 kt southeast to south flow as a high
pressure over the western Atlantic extends over the E Gulf waters.

The cold front will extend from Tarpon Springs, Florida SW to the
central gulf to the Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. The front
will then lift N toward the NW Gulf states through Tue evening
before moving off the Texas coast again early Wed and stalling
over the NW Gulf through Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds N
of 22N and W of the front tonight through Tue morning. Fresh to
strong N-NE winds are expected W of the cold front on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
fresh to strong southeast winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the remainder
of the basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S
of Hispaniola moving W with the tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-
to-upper levels continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central
Caribbean through late Fri, reaching minimal gale force along the
coast of Colombia at night each night through mid week. Strong
winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters through
late today and westward past Jamaica by Tue night as strong high
pressure builds N of the area. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are
also expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the
Gulf of Honduras, through Fri. NE to E swell will build over
Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week
continuing through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N67W. A 1030
mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N24W. This pattern
maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic,
and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this evening,
then stall over the waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the
front will lift N by Tue night, while the eastern part is forecast
to move S-SE until dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. A ridge
will build again by mid week and will prevail through Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 23:14

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1214 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
These gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0900 UTC
tonight from 11N-12.5N between 74W-76W, with seas reaching 12 ft.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 09N13W and
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N28W to the
coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 03N-06N between 12W-20W, and from 01N-04S between 08W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a cold front extends from S Louisiana near 30N91W
to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N97W. Low stratus and fog are W of
front. 20-25 kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder
of the basin has 10-20 kt southeast to south flow as a high
pressure over the western Atlantic extends over the E Gulf
waters.

The cold front will extend from Tarpon Springs, Florida SW to the
central gulf to the Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. The front
will then lift N toward the NW Gulf states through Tue evening
before moving off the Texas coast again early Wed and stalling
over the NW Gulf through Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds N
of 22N and W of the front tonight through Tue morning. Fresh to
strong N-NE winds are expected W of the cold front on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
fresh to strong southeast winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the remainder
of the basin. Other than some quick moving-trade wind showers, no
significant convection is noted across the basin as dry air in
the mid-to-upper levels continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central
Caribbean tonight through next weekend, reaching minimal gale
force along the coast of Colombia at night each night. Strong
winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters by Mon
night and westward past Jamaica by Tue night as strong high
pressure builds N of the area. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are
also expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the
Gulf of Honduras, through Fri. NE to E swell will build over
Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week
continuing through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb
surface high centered near 30N37W. This pattern maintains gentle
to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to
fresh winds over the central and Eastern Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon evening, then
stall over the waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the front
will lift N by Tue night, while the eastern part is forecast to
move S-SE until dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. A ridge
will build again by mid week and will prevail through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 17:24

657
AXNT20 KNHC 172324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
These gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0300 UTC
tonight from 11N-12.5N between 73W-76W, with seas reaching 11 ft.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 10N14W and
extends to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to the coast
of South America near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
from south of 00N and west of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has emerged just off the Texas coast extending from a
1008 mb low near 30N94W to 26N97W, then across northeastern
Mexico. Areas of low stratus and fog are within about 60 nm to
the southeast of the front. Fresh northerly winds are prevailing north
of the front. The remainder of the basin is under moderate to
fresh southeast to south flow as a high pressure over the western
Atlantic extends over the Gulf waters.

The cold front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through
Monday, lift north toward the northern Gulf states Tuesday,
before moving off the Texas coast again Wednesday and stalling
over the NW Gulf through late week. Expect fresh to strong
easterly winds north of the front over the north and central Gulf
on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
fresh to strong southeast winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the remainder
of the basin. Other than some quick moving-trade wind showers, no
significant convection is noted across the basin as dry air in
the mid-to-upper levels continues to dominate the region.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern
Caribbean are increasing over the southern Caribbean as high
pressure builds north of the area. Strong to near-gale force
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean tonight
through the next several nights. Fresh to strong easterly winds
will prevail across the Caribbean waters west of 85W, including
the Gulf of Honduras, through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb
surface high centered near 32N37W. This pattern maintains gentle
to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to
fresh winds over the central and Eastern Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast late Monday,
then stall over the waters north of 27N Tuesday. The western part
of the front will lift north by late Tue, while the eastern part
is forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and southerly return flow
will prevail again by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA


Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 11:31

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along
the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean.
These gale- force winds are expected to develop by 0300 UTC
tonight from 11N- 12.5N between 73W- 76W with seas to 11 ft.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 10N14W and
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N30W to
the coast of South America near 03S45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 03S-06N between 06W-11W, and S
of 01S W of 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has emerged just off the Texas coast this morning and
as of 1500 UTC extended from near Houston to Corpus Christi, with
areas of low stratus and fog within about 60 nm to the southeast
of the front. Fresh northerly winds are north of the front. The
remainder of the Gulf basin is under moderate to fresh southeast
to south flow between low pressure along the Mexico coast near
Tampico, and high pressure over the western Atlantic that extends
over the Gulf basin.

The cold front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through
Mon, lift N toward the northern Gulf states Tue, before moving
off the Texas coast again Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf
through late week. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds N of the
front over the NW and N central Gulf Mon and Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central
Caribbean near Colombia.

This morning's scatterometer pass and surface observations
indicated fresh to strong southeast winds over the gulf of
Honduras, and moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of
the remainder of the Caribbean basin. Other than some passing trade
wind showers, no significant convection is noted across the basin
as dry air in the mid- to- upper levels continues to dominate the
region.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern
Caribbean are increasing over the southern Caribbean as high
pres builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected over the S central Caribbean tonight through the next
several days, reaching minimal gale force at night each night
except Wed night. Fresh to strong E to SE are also expected
across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf of
Honduras, through Thu night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters
E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will gradually subside
through today, then will rebuild by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb
surface high centered just west of the Azores near 38N32W. This
pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western
Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern
Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late Mon, then
stall over the waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the
front will lift N by late Tue, while the eastern part is
forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and southerly return flow
will prevail again by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 02/17/2019 - 05:25

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171125
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and
combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure
gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern
Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC
18 Feb from 10N-12N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the latest
Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 11N15W and
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of
South America near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from
03N-06N between 09W-17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. 10-20
kt southerly return flow is noted with strongest winds over the W
Gulf. A stationary front is along the Texas coast. A cold front is
further inland over Texas. No significant convection is observed
across the Gulf waters at this time. Satellite imagery shows an
area of low stratus or fog over the NW Gulf from SE Louisiana to N
of Veracruz Mexico.

Weak ridging across the Gulf will shift E this morning ahead of a
cold front moving off the Texas coast later today. The front will
stall across the northern Gulf waters through Mon, lift N toward
the northern Gulf states Tue, before moving off the Texas coast
again Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf through late week. Expect
fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front over the NW and N
central Gulf Mon and Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central
Caribbean near Colombia.

Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant
convection is noted anywhere in the basin.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
are increasing over the southern Caribbean as high pressure
builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected
over the S central Caribbean tonight through Wed night, reaching
minimal gale force at night Sun night through Tue night. Fresh to
strong E to SE are also expected across the Caribbean waters W of
85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Wed night. NE to E
swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands
will gradually subside through today, then will rebuild by mid
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb
surface high centered near 30N38W. This pattern maintains gentle
to moderate winds across the region.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge is maintaining a gentle to moderate
wind flow across the region. A cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast late Mon, then stall over the waters N of 27N Tue.
The western part of the front will lift N by late Tue, while the
eastern part is forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and southerly
return flow will prevail again by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/16/2019 - 23:32

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and
combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure
gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern
Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC
18 Feb from 10N-12N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the latest
Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 11N15W and
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S41W. No significant convection is related to these
features at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Recent
scatterometer and surface wind data indicated gentle to moderate
southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly south of 26N. Winds
are 10 kt or less north of 26N. A stationary front currently extends
along the N Gulf coastline. No significant convection is observed
across the Gulf waters at this time.

Dense fog will restrict visibilities in the NW and N central
Gulf. A ridge and return southerly flow will prevail through Sun
afternoon. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf while a trough
develops in the SW and W central Gulf by Sun evening. The front
will stall across the northern Gulf waters while the trough
lingers through Mon afternoon. Then, the front will lift N toward
the northern Gulf states on Tue and the trough will shift
westward, with high pressure prevailing again by Tue night. The
front will move back offshore Wed, then will gradually retreat
again as ridging holds strong. Expect fresh to strong easterly
winds N of the front over the NW and N central Gulf Mon and Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central
Caribbean near Colombia.

Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant
convection is noted anywhere in the basin.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high
pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean Sunday night
through Wed night, reaching minimal gale force at night Sun
night through Tue night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also
expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the
Gulf of Honduras, Sun through Wed night. NE to E swell over
Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will
gradually subside through Sun, then rebuild by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb
surface high centered near 30N38W. This pattern maintains gentle
to moderate winds across the region.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge is maintaining a gentle to moderate
wind flow across the region. A cold front will clip the waters N
of 30N on Sun. Another cold front will move across the waters N of
27N Mon afternoon through Tue. The western part of the front will
lift N by late Tue, while the eastern part is forecast to remain
near 27N. A ridge and return flow will prevail again by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/16/2019 - 23:31

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and
combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure
gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern
Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC
18 Feb from 10N-12N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the latest
Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 11N15W and
extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S41W. No significant convection is related to these
features at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Recent
scatterometer and surface wind data indicated gentle to moderate
southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly south of 26N. Winds
are 10 kt or less north of 26N. A stationary front currently extends
along the N Gulf coastline. No significant convection is observed
across the Gulf waters at this time.

Dense fog will restrict visibilities in the NW and N central
Gulf. A ridge and return southerly flow will prevail through Sun
afternoon. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf while a trough
develops in the SW and W central Gulf by Sun evening. The front
will stall across the northern Gulf waters while the trough
lingers through Mon afternoon. Then, the front will lift N toward
the northern Gulf states on Tue and the trough will shift
westward, with high pressure prevailing again by Tue night. The
front will move back offshore Wed, then will gradually retreat
again as ridging holds strong. Expect fresh to strong easterly
winds N of the front over the NW and N central Gulf Mon and Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central
Caribbean near Colombia.

Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant
convection is noted anywhere in the basin.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high
pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean Sunday night
through Wed night, reaching minimal gale force at night Sun
night through Tue night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also
expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the
Gulf of Honduras, Sun through Wed night. NE to E swell over
Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will
gradually subside through Sun, then rebuild by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb
surface high centered near 30N38W. This pattern maintains gentle
to moderate winds across the region.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge is maintaining a gentle to moderate
wind flow across the region. A cold front will clip the waters N
of 30N on Sun. Another cold front will move across the waters N of
27N Mon afternoon through Tue. The western part of the front will
lift N by late Tue, while the eastern part is forecast to remain
near 27N. A ridge and return flow will prevail again by mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/16/2019 - 17:20

000
AXNT20 KNHC 162320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and
combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure
gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern
Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC
18 Feb from 11.5N-12.5N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the
latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 07N12W and extends to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S41W. No significant convection is related to these
features at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Recent
scatterometer and surface wind data indicated gentle to moderate
southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly south of 26N. Winds
are 10 kt or less north of 26N. A stationary front currently extends
along the Gulf coastline. No significant convection is observed
across the Gulf waters at this time.

High pressure ridging and return southerly flow will
prevail through Sunday afternoon. The next cold front will move
into the northwest Gulf while a trough develops in the west-
central Gulf by Sun evening. The front will stall from just south
of the Florida Big Bend to across the northern Gulf to the
Texas/Mexico border, while the troughing lingers through Mon
afternoon. The front and trough will shift west on Monday night
with high pressure prevailing by Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central
Caribbean near Colombia.

Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant
convection is noted anywhere in the basin.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high
pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean Sunday night
through mid-week, reaching gale-force at nighttime. Fresh to
strong easterly winds are expected across the Caribbean waters
west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, Sunday through
Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb
surface high centered near 31N38W. This pattern maintains gentle
to moderate winds across the region.

The next cold front will move across the waters north of 29N
early Sun, pushing east of 65W by early Monday. Another cold
front will move across the waters north of 27N on Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. Surface ridging and return flow will
prevail through mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/16/2019 - 11:18

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the tropical Atlantic
will build westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next 48
hours and combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the
pressure gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern
Caribbean. Gale Warning conditions are expected by 0600 UTC 18 Feb
from 11.5N to 12.5N between 73W and 76W. Please read the latest
Atlantic High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 07N12W and extends to
05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the coast of Brazil near
04S38W. Scattered showers are occurring south of 02S and west of
35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Recent
scatterometer and surface wind data indicated moderate to locally
fresh southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly east of 90W.
Winds were southerly 10 kt or less west of 90W. Areas of dense fog
were noted in satellite imagery and surface observations along and
within 150 nmi of the coasts of southwestern Louisiana, Texas, and
Mexico north of Tampico/21N. No significant convection is observed
across the Gulf waters.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through early Sunday,
maintaining moderate to locally fresh sely return flow over the
western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the nwrn Gulf of Mexico
Sunday and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico,
Mexico, by early Monday as broad low pressure forms off Veracruz in
the swrn Gulf Sunday night into Monday. The front is expected to
stall across nrn Gulf waters through Tuesday morning, then lift
northward across the nrn Gulf by late Tuesday as the low moves
inland over nern Mexico and dissipates. The front will move again
over the nwrn Gulf by Wednesday, reaching from sern Louisiana to
near Tampico, Mexico, by Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the
forecast gale event over the swrn Caribbean Sea near Colombia.

A weak surface trough extends from from 19N81W to 17N83W.
Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant
convection was noted anywhere in the basin except over and near land
areas where isolated light showers were occurring, especially near
offshore land breezes.

Moderate to fresh winds over the cntrl and ern Caribbean will
increase in the srn Caribbean by early Sunday due to high pressure
westward across the entire basin. Strong to near gale force winds
are expected over the S central Caribbean Sunday night through
Tuesday night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia by 0600
UTC Monday morning. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast
across Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras,
Sunday through Wednesday night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters E
of the Windward and Leeward Islands will subside through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak high pressure centered near 28N74W with gentle winds west of
73W. A broad surface from 31N68W extended swd to 26N70W. Scattered
mainly light showers were occurring in the converging swly low-level
wind flow within an area 120-300 nmi east of the trough. The
remainder of the cntrl and ern Atlantic is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1032-mb surface high centered near 29N37W.

Broad high pressure should maintain light to moderate sly-swly winds
across the region through tonight. A cold front will move across the
waters north of 29N early Sunday, pushing east of 65W by early
Monday. Another cold front will move across the waters north of 27N
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The western extent of the front is
expected to lift northward on Wednesday as another cold front
approaches from the west.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stewart
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/16/2019 - 04:56

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
555 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W and extends
to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 04S36W. Scattered showers are occurring south of 02S
between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters.
Latest scatterometer and surface data depict a moderate to
locally fresh southerly wind flow across the basin. A surface
trough is located along the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W to
18N91W. No significant convection is observed across the Gulf
waters.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Sun,
maintaining moderate to locally fresh SE return flow over the
western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico
Sun and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico
by early Mon as broad low pres forms off Veracruz in the SW Gulf
through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters
through Tue morning, then lift NW across the northern Gulf by late
Tue as the low moves inland over NE Mexico and dissipates. The
front will move again over the NW Gulf by Wed, reaching from SE
Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a
base over the Southwestern Caribbean while surface ridge builds
across the Western Caribbean. Diffluent flow to the east of the
upper-level trough supports scattered showers NE of Hispaniola
and adjacent waters. Surface ridging also prevails across the
eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers are possible Western
Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 19N81W to 17N83W and a
second trough further east is near 20N77W to 16N79W. No
significant convection is observed in the vicinity of both
troughs. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trades
over the eastern Caribbean while a gentle to moderate trades are
observed west of 80W.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high
pres building N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected over the S central Caribbean Sun night through Tue night,
with gale conditions possible off Colombia on Mon night. Fresh to
strong E to SE are also expected across the Caribbean water W of
85W, including the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Wed night. NE to E
swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands
will gradually subside through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Latest scatterometer data indicate a weak high pressure centered
near 28N74W with gentle winds west of 73W. A mid to upper-level
trough extends from the west Atlantic to a base over the SW
Caribbean with diffluent flow to the east of the upper-level
trough supporting scattered showers from 18N between 56W-68W. A
1011 low press is centered near 31N69W with a surface trough
extending southward to 26N72W. No convection is noted with this
trough. A warm front also extends to the east of the low into the
central Atlantic near 34N45W. The remainder central and eastern
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb
surface high centered near 30N38W.

Weak high pressure centered near 28N74W will keep gentle to
moderate winds across the region. A cold front will move across
the waters N of 29N early Sun, pushing E of 65W by early Mon.
Another cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Mon
afternoon through Tue. The western part of the front is forecast
to lift N on Wed as another cold front approaches from the W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 02/16/2019 - 00:06

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 07N11W and extends
to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 04S36W. Scattered showers are occurring south of 02S
between 31W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters.
Latest scatterometer and surface data depict a gentle to
moderate anticyclinic wind flow across the basin. No significant
convection is observed across the Gulf waters.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Sun, maintaining
moderate to locally fresh SE return flow over the western Gulf. The
next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun and extend
from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by early Mon as
broad low pres forms off Veracruz in the SW Gulf through Mon. The
front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tue
morning, then lift NW across the northern Gulf by late Tue as the
low moves inland over NE Mexico and dissipates. The front will
then attempt to move again over the NW Gulf by Wed, probably
reaching from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a
base over the Southwestern Caribbean while surface ridge remains
across the Western Caribbean. Diffluent flow to the east of the
upper- level trough supports scattered showers NE of Hispaniola
and adjacent waters. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder
of the basin. Scattered showers are present across west Cuba and
Western Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 19N82W and a
second trough further east near 16N79W. No significant convection
is observed in the vicinity of both troughs. Scatterometer data
shows gentle to moderate trades currently cover the eastern
Caribbean while a moderate to fresh trades are observed from 68W-
73W.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
through Sat night will increase in the southern Caribbean by early
Sun due to high pres building N of the area. Strong to near gale
force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean Sun night
through Tue night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia on
Mon night. Fresh to strong E to SE are also expected across the
Caribbean water W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras Sun
through Wed night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters E of the
Windward and Leeward Islands will gradually subside through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a
base over the Southwestern Caribbean with diffluent flow to the
east of the upper-level trough supporting scattered showers NE of
Hispaniola and adjacent waters between 62W-70W. A 1011 low press
is centered near 29N71W. A trough extends south from the low to
the central Bahamas. A warm front also extends to the east of the
low to 31N66W. The remainder central and eastern Atlantic is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb surface high
centered near 30N38W.

A surface trough extends from the low center to the central
Bahamas. The low will be N of the forecast area on Sat, dragging
the associated trough across the NE waters through late Sat. A new
cold front will move across the waters N of 29N early Sun, pushing
E of 65W by early Mon. Another cold front will move across the
waters N of 27N Mon afternoon through Tue. The western part of the
front is forecast to lift N on Wed as another cold front approaches
from the W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 02/15/2019 - 17:20

000
AXNT20 KNHC 152320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal Liberia, Africa
near 05N09W and extends to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from point
to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered showers are
occurring south of 05S between 18W and 32W. A surface trough is N
of the ITCZ extending from 08N20W to 03N21W with scattered
showers.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Latest
scatterometer and surface data depict a light to gentle southerly
wind flow across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate
southerly winds prevail over the wester half of the Gulf.

The surface ridge will prevail across the basin through the
weekend, maintaining moderate southeasterly return flow over the
western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the northwest Gulf
of Mexico on Sunday and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near
Tampico, Mexico by early Monday as broad pressure forms off
Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. The front will stall across the
northern Gulf waters through Tuesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a
base over the western Caribbean. This trough continues to support
a surface trough that extends from the Cayman Islands to the coast
of SE Nicaragua. Diffluent flow to the east of the upper- level
trough supports scattered showers across Hispaniola and adjacent
waters. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin.

The surface trough will dissipate this evening. Moderate to fresh
winds are over the central and eastern Caribbean and will
continue through Saturday night. However, winds will increase in
the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to the high pressure
building north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected over the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras
Sunday night through Tuesday night, with gale conditions possible
off Colombia on Sunday night and Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough over the west Atlantic supports a
frontal system across this area, analyzed as a stationary front
from 31N65W to a 1011 mb low near 29N72W. A surface trough extends
from the low to 23N78W. Low-level moisture inflow from the
Caribbean into this system supports scattered showers north of
20N between 60W-72W. The remainder central and eastern Atlantic
is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb surface high
centered near 31N35W.

Expect for the frontal system to slowly push northeast of the
area through Saturday. A new cold front will move across the
waters north of 29N by early Sunday, pushing east of 65W by early
Monday. Another cold front will move across the waters by Monday
afternoon, pushing east of 65W by early Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 02/15/2019 - 12:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal Liberia, Africa
near 05N09W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that
last location to 01N23W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W.
Scattered showers are occurring from 05S to 02N between 22W and
32W. A surface trough is N of the ITCZ extending from 08N18W to
03N21W with scattered to isolated showers within 150 nm either
side of the trough axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Latest
scatterometer and surface data show light to gentle southerly
flow across the eastern half of the basin, and mainly moderate
southerly wind over the wester half of the gulf. Although dry air
subsidence is occurring throughout the gulf supporting fair
weather, a plume of shallow moisture is observed in the low-
levels LPW imagery. This plume is advecting moisture from the
tropical Pacific waters through the isthmus of Tehuantepec to the
NW Gulf of Mexico where fog and haze is being reported.

The ridge will prevail across the Gulf waters through early Sun,
maintaining moderate SE return flow over the western Gulf. The
next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun and extend
from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by early Mon as
broad low pres forms off Veracruz in the SW Gulf through Mon. The
front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tue
morning, then lift NW across the northern Gulf by late Tue as the
low moves inland over NE Mexico and dissipates. The front will
then attempt to push slightly eastward again by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough extends from the SW N Atlc to a
base over the western half of the Caribbean. The upper trough
continue to support a surface trough extending from the Cayman
Islands to the coast of SE Nicaragua, and a dissipating
stationary front that extends from a low in the southern Bahamas
to eastern Cuba and across Jamaica. Diffluent flow to the east of
the trough aloft supports broken skies and isolated showers across
the Windward Passage, Hispaniola and the Mona Passage.

Both the surface trough and the weakening stationary front will
dissipate through the afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds are over
the central and eastern Caribbean and will continue through Sat
night. However, winds will increase in the southern Caribbean by
early Sun due to high pres building N of the area. Strong to
near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Tue night, with gale
conditions possible off Colombia Sun night and Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough over the SW N Atlc supports a
complex frontal system extending as a warm front from 31N62W SW to
a 1014 mb low near 26N70W then as a cold front SW to a second 1014
mb low located just SW of the southern Bahamas. Low level moisture
inflow from the Caribbean into this system supports scattered
showers and isolated tstms N of 20N between 60W and 73W. Two weak
troughs, one ahead and another following the frontal system,
enhance this area of convection. The remainder central and eastern
Atlc is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high
near 30N37W.

The front will slowly push E of the area through Sat night. A new
cold front will move across the waters N of 29N early Sun,
pushing E of 65W by early Mon. Another cold front will move across
the waters N of 29N Mon afternoon, pushing E of 65W by early Tue.
Return flow under ridging will prevail Tue afternoon and night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 02/15/2019 - 05:50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W and extends to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered showers are
noted from 03N between 14W-21W and south from the Equator to 03S
between 22W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida and
extends across the basin. Partly cloudy skies prevail with no
significant convection. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic
winds prevail across the basin.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through early Sunday,
maintaining moderate SE return flow over the western Gulf. The
next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning and
extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Sun
night as broad low pressure forms off Veracruz in the southwest
Gulf through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf
waters through Tue morning, then lift northward across the
northern Gulf by late Tue as the low moves inland over northeast
Mexico and dissipates.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low pressure is centered near the central Bahamas with a
stationary front extending southward into the NW Caribbean to
another low pressure near 17N82W. A remnant trough extends to the
south of the low pressure to 15N82W. An upper-level trough axis
extends from the western Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to
Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-level
diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of
20N. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted. Moderate to
fresh trades currently cover the eastern and central Caribbean
mainly east of 73W while a gentle to moderate trades cover the
southern and NW Caribbean sea.

Weak low pressure between Grand Cayman Island and Swan Island
will dissipate early this morning, with a remnant trough persisting
through late today. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and
eastern Caribbean through Sat night will increase in the southern
Caribbean by early Sun due to high pressure building north of the
area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the south
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Tue
night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia Sun night and
Mon night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters east of the Windward
and Leeward Islands will subside through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N62W to a
1014 mb low near 26N73W. A stationary front extends from the low
to another low over the central Bahamas near 23N75W. An upper-
level trough axis extends from the western Atlantic across the NW
Caribbean to Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-
level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north
of 20N into the eastern Bahamas and western Atlantic mainly west
of 65W-75W. Scattered showers cover the area within 180 nm on
either side of the frontal system. Farther east, a 1030 mb high
is centered near 31N39W, and extends across most of the central
and eastern Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from 31N13W to
21N29W to 20N38W to a dissipating cold front. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail behind this front.

A nearly stationary front extends from 31N62W to a 1014 mb low
pressure located near 26N73W to another low pressure near 23N75W.
The lows will likely merge then move north of the area through
tonight along the weakening front. The front will weaken to a
trough Sat, which will shift E of the area Sun ahead of a cold
front moving off the NE Florida coast late Mon. The front will
stall along 29N east of 75W into Tue, then lift northward Tue
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 02/15/2019 - 01:02

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered showers
are noted along the monsoon trough between 16W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida and
extends across the basin. Partly cloudy skies prevail with no
significant convection. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic
winds prevail across the basin.

Surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend,
producing mainly a southerly return flow. The next cold front
will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning and extend
from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Sun night.
Then, the front is forecast to stall across the northern Gulf
waters through Tue morning, lifting N toward the northern Gulf
states by late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low pressure is off the east-central Cuba near 22N77W
with a stationary front extending south into the NW Caribbean
to another low pressure near 19N82W. A remnant trough extends to
the south of the low pressure to 15N69W. An upper-level trough
axis extends from the western Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to
Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-level
diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 18N
along the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, no significant convection
is noted. Moderate to fresh trades currently cover the eastern and
central Caribbean mainly east of 73W while a gentle to moderate
trades cover the southern and NW Caribbean sea.

A weak low pressure area near 19N82W will dissipate tonight, with
a remnant trough prevailing through early Fri. Moderate to fresh
winds will dominate the central and eastern Caribbean waters
through Sat night. Winds and seas will then increase in the
southern Caribbean early on Sunday due to high pressure building
north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected
along the coast of Colombia Sun night through Tue night, with gale
conditions possible on Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N66W to a
1014 mb low near 25N73W. A stationary front extends from the low
to 22N77W. An upper-level trough axis extends from the western
Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to Guatemala. Just east of the
upper trough axis, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered
moderate convection north of 18N along the Windward Passage into
the central-eastern Bahamas and western Atlantic mainly west of
62W. Scattered showers cover the area within 180 nm on either
side of the frontal system, Farther east, a 1030 mb high is
centered near 31N45W, and extends across most of the central and
eastern Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from 31N18W to 22N35W
to 22N44W to a dissipating cold front. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail behind this front.

The front associated with a 1014 mb low pressure located near NE
of the Bahamas will remain stationary on Fri. A second low further
south in the NW Caribbean will likely merge, with the predominant
low exiting the forecast area by Fri night. A trough, associated
with the low will persist over the NE waters through late Sat.
Then, a ridge will dominate the region through Mon. A cold front
is forecast to move off NE Florida by late Mon, and extend across
the waters N of 27N on Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
Categories: Weather

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