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National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
Updated: 13 min 46 sec ago

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

4 hours 55 min ago

039
AXNT20 KNHC 182349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 07N-18N
along 23W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a strong deep layer
environment and is being affected by dry and dust air intrusion
in the lower levels as depicted in GOES-16 water vapor and
enhanced IR imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N
between 16W-23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with
axis extending from 08N-20N along 40W, moving W at 15 kt. The
wave is entering a low deep layer wind shear environment, however
is being severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust, which
hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
07N-18N along 64W, moving W at 15 kt. Both CIRA LPW and GOES-16
water vapor imagery show the northern wave environment being
affected by low level dry air, which is limiting the convection to
scattered moderate across the Windward Islands and SE Caribbean S
of 14N E of 65W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 09N-20N along 80W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a
moderate to strong deep layer wind shear environment and mostly a
dry enviromnent. Shallow moisture in the northern wave environment
and diffluent wind aloft support scattered showers and tstms from
18N-21N between 76W-81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 14N16W
to 07N23W to 09N39W. The ITCZ begins near 09N39W and continues to
09N52W to 11N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section, scattered showers are from 07N-10N between
47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across Florida and the
entire Gulf reaching also eastern Mexico. The ridge is providing
return flow in the range of 5-10 kt across the region except in
the north-central Gulf where scattered heavy showers and tstms
enhance the wind to fresh. The area of convection is N of 27N
between 85W and 93W and is being supported by inflow of shallow
moisture from the Caribbean by southeasterly wind and middle level
diffluent flow. Evening heating is also procucing scattered
moderate convection over the Florida Peninsula, Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin
through Wed. Showers over the N-central and NE basin are forecast
to continue through Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. An upper
level low is centered over W Cuba near 22N83W enhancing the
convection over Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted over Hispaniola, N Venezuela, N Colombia,
Panama, Costa Rica, E Nicaragua, and E Honduras. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending from the Atlantic to the northern half
of the basin, continues to support fresh to strong winds in the
south- central Caribbean. The center of high pressure SW of the
Bahamas will stall the next several days, which will allow the
continuation of these winds in the south-central basin. Showers
will prevail in the SE Caribbean through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high and the Azores high covers most of the Atlc ocean
mainly supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge is
analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 30N54W SW to
27N60W. Scattered showers and tstms are within 120 nm either side
of the trough. Isolated showers are across the Bahamas. For
further information associated with the tropical waves, see
section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

10 hours 40 min ago

305
AXNT20 KNHC 181804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 07N-18N
along 23W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a strong deep layer
environment and is being affected by dry and dust air intrusion
in the lower levels as depicted in GOES-16 water vapor and
enhanced IR imagery. These factors are hindering the development
of convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
08N-20N along 39W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is entering a low
deep layer wind shear environment, however is being severely
affected by Saharan dry air and dust, which hinder convection at
the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
07N-18N along 62W, moving W at 15 kt. Both CIRA LPW and GOES-16
water vapor imagery show the northern wave environment being
affected by low level dry air, which is limiting the convection to
scattered moderate across the Windward Islands and SE Caribbean S
of 14N E of 65W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 09N-20N along 79W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a
moderate to strong deep layer wind shear environment and mostly a
dry enviromnent. Shallow moisture in the northern wave environment
and diffluent wind aloft support scattered showers and tstms from
18N-21N between 76W-81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 09N13W
to 06N26W to 10N40W. The ITCZ begins near 10N40W and continues to
08N50W to 10N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section, scattered heavy showers and tstms are off
the W coast of Africa from 06N-14N E of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across Florida and the
entire Gulf reaching also eastern Mexico. The ridge is providing
return flow in the range of 5-10 kt across the region except in
the north-central Gulf where scattered heavy showers and tstms
enhance the wind to fresh. The area of convection is N of 27N
between 85W and 93W and is being supported by inflow of shallow
moisture from the Caribbean by southeasterly wind and middle level
diffluent flow. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin
through Wed. Showers over the N-central and NE basin are forecast
to continue through Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 water vapor imagery at the lower levels show generally
dry, stable air across the basin. Besides dry air, moderate to
strong deep layer wind shear cover the western half of the
Caribbean, thus limiting the areas of convection. A tropical wave
moving S of eastern Cuba support scattered showers over central
and eastern Cuba adjacent waters. Another tropical wave moves
across the E Caribbean supporting showers in the SE basin. See the
tropical waves section for further details. CIRA LPW imagery show
regions of abundant shallow moisture in the basin that support
isolated showers in the Gulf of Honduras and N of 14N between
69W-73W, including Hispaniola. Otherwise, surface ridging
extending from the Atlantic to the northern half of the basin,
continues to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean. The center of high pressure SW of the Bahamas will
stall the next several days, which will allow the continuation of
these winds in the south-central basin. Showers will prevail in
the SE Caribbean through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high and the Azores high covers most of the Atlc ocean
mainly supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge is
analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 30N54W SW to
27N60W. Scattered showers and tstms are within 120 nm either side
of the trough. Isolated showers are across the Bahamas. For
further information associated with the tropical waves, see
section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

16 hours 38 min ago

844
AXNT20 KNHC 181206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-tropical Storm Ernesto is centered near 51.9N 20.0W at
18/0900 UTC or 885 nm NNE of The Azores moving ENE at 30 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Weakening is forecast to
continue, and Ernesto should merge with a frontal zone by
tonight. On this forecast track the post-tropical cyclone and its
remnants will move across Ireland and the United Kingdom tonight
and early Sunday. See the last advisory on Ernesto under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
04N-16N along 37W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Both CIRA LPW and
GOES-16 water vapor imagery at the lower levels show dry air
affecting the wave. These two factors are contributing to the lack
of convection at this time.

A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean. Its axis extends
from 05N-18N along 61W, moving W at 15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show
abundant low level moisture associated with it. However, some dry
air intrusion is noted in the NW wave environment as shown both
in CIRA LPW, and water vapor imagery at the lower levels. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 59W-63W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 04N-18N along 78W, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is in the northern wave environment N of 17N between
75W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N17W
to 10N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ begins near 07N40W and continues to
08N50W to 10N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over W Africa from 08N-14N between 04W-18W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N69W. A
ridge axis extends W from the high along 30N to E Texas. 10 kt SE
surface winds covers the Gulf of Mexico N of 24N. A surface trough
is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 16N93W. Scattwered
moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 92W-95W. In the upper
levels, an upper level high is centered over SE Louisiana near
30N90W. Upper level diffluence is over the Yucatan Channel
producing scattered showers.

Expect, a surface trough to develop along the Yucatan Peninsula
during the late afternoons, then drift westward across the
southwest gulf waters during the overnight hours accompanied by a
fresh east to southeast wind shift with the trough dissipating
along 96W during the late mornings. Otherwise, expect an east to
west ridge extends across the gulf waters along 30N accompanied
by gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow that is forecast to
increase to a fresh southerly breeze across the northwest gulf
waters on Sun evening, and continue through sunrise on Mon. The
ridge will then shift south and extend east to west across the
central waters during the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. A
surface trough extends over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W to
the E Pacific near 10N86W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
the trough. Surface ridging extends from the Atlantic to the
northern half of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are over the
south-central Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level low
is centered over central Cuba near 22N80W. Upper level diffluence
is over Jamaica and E Cuba enhancing convection.

Expect, strong nocturnal easterly trades along the northwest
coast of Colombia through the middle of next week. A tropical
wave along 76W will continue to move westward across the western
Caribbean during the weekend. A second tropical wave along 60W
will continue through the east Caribbean this weekend. A third
tropical wave in the central Atlantic will reach along 55W on Mon
night and reach the east Caribbean during the middle of next week

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic. See above. A 1024 mb high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 30N69W. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 32N54W to 26N62W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the trough. A 1028 mb high is centered over the
Azores near 38N29W.

Expect over the W Atlantic for fresh trades to be south of 23N,
except becoming locally strong along the north coast of Hispaniola
during the late afternoon into early evening hours. The surface
ridge axis will shift south to central Florida early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MF/NR

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

23 hours 3 min ago

033
AXNT20 KNHC 180541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ernesto centered near 50.4N 25.6W at 18/0300 UTC
or 750 nm N of The Azores moving ENE at 30 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical
overnight, and slight weakening is forecast to occur Saturday
while Ernesto merges with a frontal zone by Saturday night. On
this forecast track the post-tropical cyclone and its remnants
will move across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and
early Sunday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 04N-16N
along 35W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a deep layer wind
shear environment. Both CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery
at the lower levels show dry air affecting the wave. These two
factors are contributing to the lack of convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
06N-18N along 60W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a deep layer
wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant low
level moisture associated with it. However, some dry air intrusion
is noted in the NW wave environment as shown both in CIRA LPW,
and water vapor imagery at the lower levels. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 53W-61W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 09N-18N along 76W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a
moderate deep layer wind shear environment. GOES-16 water vapor
imagery at the lower levels shows very dry air over the central
Caribbean. This is limiting convection to isolated moderate
convection over E Cuba and W Hispaniola from 19N-23N between 72W-
80W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N17W
to 10N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ begins near 07N40W and continues to
08N50W to 10N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over W Africa from 08N-14N between 04W-18W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N69W. A
ridge axis extends W from the high along 30N to E Texas. 10 kt SE
surface winds covers the Gulf of Mexico N of 24N. A surface trough
is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 16N93W. Scattwered
moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 92W-95W. In the upper
levels, an upper level high is centered over SE Louisiana near
30N90W. Upper level diffluence is over the Yucatan Channel
producing scattered showers.

Expect, a surface trough to develop along the Yucatan Peninsula
during the late afternoons, then drift westward across the
southwest gulf waters during the overnight hours accompanied by a
fresh east to southeast wind shift with the trough dissipating
along 96W during the late mornings. Otherwise, expect an east to
west ridge extends across the gulf waters along 30N accompanied
by gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow that is forecast to
increase to a fresh southerly breeze across the northwest gulf
waters on Sun evening, and continue through sunrise on Mon. The
ridge will then shift south and extend east to west across the
central waters during the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. A
surface trough extends over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W to
the E Pacific near 10N86W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
the trough. Surface ridging extends from the Atlantic to the
northern half of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are over the
south-central Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level low
is centered over central Cuba near 22N80W. Upper level diffluence
is over Jamaica and E Cuba enhancing convection.

Expect, strong nocturnal easterly trades along the northwest
coast of Colombia through the middle of next week. A tropical
wave along 76W will continue to move westward across the western
Caribbean during the weekend. A second tropical wave along 60W
will continue through the east Caribbean this weekend. A third
tropical wave in the central Atlantic will reach along 55W on Mon
night and reach the east Caribbean during the middle of next week

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic. See above. A 1024 mb high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 30N69W. A surface trough is over
the central Atlantic from 32N54W to 26N62W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the trough. A 1028 mb high is centered over the
Azores near 38N29W.

Expect over the W Atlantic for fresh trades to be south of 23N,
except becoming locally strong along the north coast of Hispaniola
during the late afternoon into early evening hours. The surface
ridge axis will shift south to central Florida early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa


Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 08/17/2018 - 19:09

566
AXNT20 KNHC 180008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
808 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ernesto centered near 49.1N 29.8W at 17/2100 UTC
or 680 nm N of The Azores moving NE at 27 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. A rapid northeast or east-northeast
motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast
track, the post-tropical cyclone and its remnants will move
across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early
Sunday. Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical this evening,
and some gradual weakening is forecast to occur Saturday and
Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to merge
with a frontal zone by early Sunday. See latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 06N-18N
along 30W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a low deep layer
wind shear environment, however both CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water
vapor imagery at the lower levels show dry air affecting the wave.
These two factors are contributing to the lack of convection at
this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
05N-16N along 58W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a low
deep layer wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows
abundant low level moisture associated with it. However, some dry
air intrusion is noted in the NW wave environment as shown both
in CIRA LPW, and water vapor imagery at the lower levels.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N-14N
between 54W-61W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 10N-20N along 74W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
moderate deep layer wind shear environment. GOES-16 water vapor
imagery at the lower levels show very dry air over the central
Caribbean. This is limiting convection to scattered moderate
convection over W Hispaniola from 18N-21N between 72W-74W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
14N17W to 10N28W. The ITCZ begins near 10N35W and continues to
09N46W to 11N56W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical
wave section, scattered moderate to strong convection is over W
Africa and the coast from 08N-15N between 00W-18W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 10N- 12N between 24W-27W, and from
10N-12N between 36W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across Florida and large
portions of the Gulf into eastern Mexico. The ridge is providing
return flow in the range of 5-10 kt across the region except in
the north-central Gulf where scattered heavy showers and tstms
enhance the winds to fresh. Widely scattered moderate convection
is N of 25N between 85W-92W. This convection is being supported
by the inflow of shallow moisture from the Caribbean with
southeasterly winds, and middle level diffluent flow. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the
Yucatan Peninsula and the E Bay of Campeche from 17N-22N between
88W-93W. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin through
early next week. Showers over the NE basin are forecast to
continue through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant shallow moisture across most of
the Caribbean. In the western basin, an upper level anticyclone
provides divergent flow aloft, which supports a broad area of
isolated moderate convection from 15N-23N between 83W-88W. A
tropical wave is moving across the central basin. SAn area of
scattered moderate convection is S of Puerto Rico from 15N-17N
between 65W-68W. Otherwise, surface ridging extending from the
Atlantic to the northern half of the basin, continues to support
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean. The next
tropical is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles Sat
morning. Showers will prevail in the E Caribbean through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. The Bermuda
high and the Azores high covers most of the Atlc ocean mainly
supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a
surface trough that extends from 31N55W SW to 26N61W to 24N72W.
Scattered showers and tstms are within 105 nm either side of the
trough. Isolated showers are across the Bahamas. A large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms is SE of the Windward
Islands associated with a tropical wave.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 08/17/2018 - 12:47

013
AXNT20 KNHC 171747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto at 17/1500 UTC is near 47.1N
32.9W or 605 nmi to the NNW of the Azores. Ernesto is moving NE
at 26 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50
knots. Scattered moderate convection is N of 44N between 26W and
34W. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by
tonight and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal
zone on Saturday. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants will
move across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night. Please
read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 06N-18N
along 30W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a low deep layer
wind shear environment, however both CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water
vapor imagery at the lower levels show dry air affecting the wave.
These two factors are contributing to the lack of convection at
this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
05N-16N along 57W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a low
deep layer wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows
abundant low level moisture associated with it. However, some dry
air intrusion is noted in the NW wave environment shown both in
CIRA LPW and water vapor imagery at the lower levels. This dry air
limits the area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection
from 10N-15N between 54W-61W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 10N-20N along 70W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
moderate deep layer wind shear environment. GOES-16 water vapor
imagery at the lower levels show very dry air over the central Caribbean.
This is limiting convection to isolated showers and tstms over
Dominican Republic adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is the SW Gulf of Mexico with axis S of 20N along
95W, moving W at 10-15 kt. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at the
lower levels show dry air over this region, which is hindering
convection in the Bay of Campeche at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
10N15W to 07N20W to 07N28W. The ITCZ begins near 09N32W and
continues to 08N40W to 07N48W to 10N52W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-10N E of 21W and from 05N-11N between 38W-46W. For
more information about convection, see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across Florida and large
portions of the Gulf into eastern Mexico. The ridge is providing
return flow in the range of 5-10 kt across the region except in
the north-central Gulf where scattered heavy showers and tstms
enhance the winds to fresh. The area of convection is N of 25N
between 85W and 92W and is being supported by inflow of shallow
moisture from the Caribbean by southeasterly wind and middle
level diffluent flow. Otherwise, a tropical wave moving over the
EPAC waters south of southern Mexico reaches the Bay of Campeche,
however is not supporting convection at the time. Surface ridging
will prevail across the basin through early next week. Showers
over the NE basin are forecast to continue through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant shallow moisture across most of
the Caribbean. In the western basin, an upper level anticyclone
provides divergent flow aloft, which supports a broad area of
scattered showers and tstms from 12N-21N between 83W-90W. A
tropical wave is moving across the central basin, however low
level dry air suppress the development of deep convection at the
time. Scattered to isolated showers and tstms are occurring
across Hispaniola and adjacent waters being supported by shallow
moisture and middle level diffluence. Scattered showers and tstms
are in the eastern Caribbean associated with a tropical wave
approaching the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise, surface ridging
extending from the Atlantic to the northern half of the basin,
continues to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean. The center of high pressure SW of the Bahamas will
stall the next several days, which will allow the continuation of
these winds in the south-central basin. The axis of the tropical
wave supporting showers in the E Caribbean is forecast to move
across the Lesser Antilles Sat morning. Showers will prevail in
the E Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high and the Azores high covers most of the Atlc ocean
mainly supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge is
analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 31N55W SW to
26N61W to 24N72W. Scattered showers and tstms are within 105 nm
either side of the trough. Isolated showers are across the
Bahamas. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
is SE of the Windward Islands associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive and
development of this system is not expected while it moves
westward. This system is forecast to move through the Windward
Islands on Saturday where it could bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of the area this weekend. For further information
associated with the tropical waves, see section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 08/17/2018 - 07:06

928
AXNT20 KNHC 171206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto at 17/0900 UTC is near 45.6N
36.4W or 620 nmi to the NW of the Azores. Ernesto is moving NE at
22 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots.
Scattered moderate convection is from 44N to 48N between 30W and
37W. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by
tonight and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal
zone on Saturday. Ernesto will approach Ireland and the United
Kingdom on Saturday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 05N-17N
along 29W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moderate deep
layer wind shear environment, and both CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water
vapor imagery at the lower levels show dry air affecting the
wave. These two factors are contributing to the lack of convection
at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
06N-20N along 54W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a low
deep layer wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows
abundant low level moisture associated with it. However, some dry
air intrusion is noted in the NW wave environment shown both in
CIRA LPW and water vapor imagery at the lower levels. This dry air
has acted to reduced the convection to scattered moderate isolated
strong from 10N-15N between 50W-60W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 11N-20N along 70W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
moderate to strong deep layer wind shear environment. GOES-16
water vapor imagery at the lower levels show very dry air over
this region of the Caribbean. This is limiting convection to
isolated showers and tstms over Hispaniola adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is the SW Gulf of Mexico with axis S of 21N along
92W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Both CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor
imagery at the lower levels show dry air over this region, which
is limiting convection to isolated showers in the Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
11N16W to 08N21W to 07N30W. The ITCZ begins near 07N30W and
continues to 06N40W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 04N-07N E of 20W. For more information about
convection, see the tropical waves section.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico from 23N southward from the Yucatan Channel westward.
Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening convective
precipitation, and lingering widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico and the coastal
plains of the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N
southward between land and 93W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N69W, across Florida just to the north of Lake
Okeechobee, into the east central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of
Mexico along 20N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the waters
from 23N northward from 90W eastward.

An east-to-west oriented surface ridge extends across the Gulf
waters along 28N. The ridge is accompanied by gentle to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow, that is expected to increase to a fresh
southerly breeze across the northwest waters, from Sunday night
through early Monday. A surface trough will develop along the
Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons, then drift westward
across the SW Gulf waters during the overnight hours. The trough
will be accompanied by a fresh east-to-southeast wind shift, with
the trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward from 79W westward.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
the Windward Passage westward.

Nocturnal near gale force easterly trade winds are expected along
the northwest coast of Colombia overnight, and then again on
Friday night. A tropical wave along 68W will continue westward
across the central Caribbean tonight, and pass through the western
Caribbean waters during the upcoming weekend. A second tropical
wave will reach along 55W on Friday, and pass through the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Saturday and Sunday. The tropical wave will be
accompanied by locally strong rainshowers through early Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N37W, to 27N44W, to an
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 25N53W. A
surface trough is along 32N55W 28N57W 25N60W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 30N northward between 44W and
57W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward
between 30W and 60W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is on either
side of the 32N55W-to-25N60W surface trough.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the Atlantic Ocean from the Greater Antilles
northward from 60W westward. A few individual cyclonic circulation
centers near 27N63W, and near 21N70W.

An east to west ridge extends from 30N65W to 28N81W. Light
southerly winds are to the north of the ridge. Fresh trade winds
are to the south 23N, except becoming locally strong along the
north coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoon into early
evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/NR

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 23:51

566
AXNT20 KNHC 170451
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto at 17/0300 UTC is near 44.1N
38.9W, or 1145 km/620 nmi to the E of Cape Race in Newfoundland,
1205 km/650 nmi to the NW of the Azores. Ernesto is moving NE, or
55 degrees, 19 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts
to 50 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
cover the waters from 42N to 46N between 36W and 40W. Please read
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 17N
southward. Rainshowers are possible within 360 nm on either side
of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 07N to 15N between 50W and 60W. Some development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days, while the
tropical wave moves west-northwestward 15 mph toward the Windward
Islands. Unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the
chances for additional development, while the system moves across
the eastern Caribbean Sea by late Saturday. It is likely that
this system may bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday and Saturday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea
from the Greater Antilles southward between 60W and 73W.

A tropical wave is along 90W/91W, at the western edge of the
Yucatan Peninsula, from 22N southward. Warming cloud top
temperatures and weakening convective precipitation, and lingering
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the Gulf of Mexico and the coastal plains of the western part of
the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N southward between land and 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W, to 09N23W, and 09N33W. The ITCZ continues from
09N33W to 12N42W, and 12N49W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 15N from 50W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico from 23N southward from the Yucatan Channel westward.
Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening convective
precipitation, and lingering widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico and the coastal
plains of the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N
southward between land and 93W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N69W, across Florida just to the north of Lake
Okeechobee, into the east central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of
Mexico along 20N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the waters
from 23N northward from 90W eastward.

An east-to-west oriented surface ridge extends across the Gulf
waters along 28N. The ridge is accompanied by gentle to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow, that is expected to increase to a fresh
southerly breeze across the northwest waters, from Sunday night
through early Monday. A surface trough will develop along the
Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons, then drift westward
across the SW Gulf waters during the overnight hours. The trough
will be accompanied by a fresh east-to-southeast wind shift, with
the trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward from 79W westward.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
the Windward Passage westward.

Nocturnal near gale force easterly trade winds are expected along
the northwest coast of Colombia overnight, and then again on
Friday night. A tropical wave along 68W will continue westward
across the central Caribbean tonight, and pass through the western
Caribbean waters during the upcoming weekend. A second tropical
wave will reach along 55W on Friday, and pass through the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Saturday and Sunday. The tropical wave will be
accompanied by locally strong rainshowers through early Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N37W, to 27N44W, to an
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 25N53W. A
surface trough is along 32N55W 28N57W 25N60W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 30N northward between 44W and
57W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward
between 30W and 60W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is on either
side of the 32N55W-to-25N60W surface trough.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the Atlantic Ocean from the Greater Antilles
northward from 60W westward. A few individual cyclonic circulation
centers near 27N63W, and near 21N70W.

An east to west ridge extends from 30N65W to 28N81W. Light
southerly winds are to the north of the ridge. Fresh trade winds
are to the south 23N, except becoming locally strong along the
north coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoon into early
evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 19:05

264
AXNT20 KNHC 170005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/2100 UTC is near
43.0N 41.0W, or 1035 km/560 nmi to the ESE of Cape Race in
Newfoundland, and about 1305 km/705 nmi to the WNW of the Azores.
Ernesto is moving NE, or 045 degrees, 16 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers cover the waters from 41N to 44N
between 37W and 44W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 17N
southward. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side
of the tropical wave. The wave is in a moderate deep layer wind
shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows dry air affecting
the wave. These two factors are contributing to the lack of
convection at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 18N
southward. The wave is in a low deep layer wind shear
environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant low level
moisture associated with it. Scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 51W and 54W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 07N to 14N between 48W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 20N southward.
The wave is in a moderate to strong deep layer wind shear
environment. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at the lower levels show
very dry air over this region of the Caribbean. Isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from 18N southward between 60W
and 72W.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula, from 22N
southward. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at the lower levels shows
very dry air over this region. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
spans the Yucatan Peninsula and the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. It is more likely that any nearby precipitation is more
related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow and not related to
the tropical wave. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover
the western parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W, to 09N23W, and 09N33W. The ITCZ continues from
09N33W to 12N42W, and 12N49W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 11N from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across Florida and large
portions of the Gulf to 96W, and weak winds in the range of 5-10
kt prevail in the region. Inflow of shallow moisture from the
Caribbean by southeasterly wind along with a middle level inverted
trough in the E basin support scattered showers and tstms N of
24N E of 90W. Winds in this region may be slightly higher in the
range of 15-20 kt enhanced by the convection. Otherwise, a surface
trough is in the W Bay of Campeche supporting scattered heavy
showers and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Vera Cruz. A surface
ridge will prevail across the basin through early next week.
Rainshowers that are in the NE corner of the area are forecast to
continue through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant shallow moisture across most of
the Caribbean. In the western basin, diffluent flow aloft supports
a broad area of scattered showers and tstms from 11N-18N W of 76W.
A tropical wave is moving across the E basin, however both
Saharan Air Layer dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are
suppressing the development of convection at the time.

A ridge north of the area will maintain mainly fresh
to occasionally strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere the next
several days. Winds along the coast of Colombia may reach near
gale-force at night the next two nights. A large area of showers
and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave along 54W will
move west across the tropical N Atlantic tonight through Fri night,
reaching the eastern Caribbean Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high and the Azores high covers most of the Atlc ocean
mainly supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge is
analyzed as a 1019 mb low centered near 32N55W from which a
surface trough extends SW to 24N63W. Scattered showers and tstms
are within 150 nm ahead of the low and trough N of 27N.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is SE of
Lesser Antilles associated with a tropical wave. Some development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward toward the Windward Islands. By late
Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the
chances for additional development while the system moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. It is likely that this system may bring
locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Friday and Saturday.

A high pressure ridge along 30N will prevail across
the region through the weekend, supporting gentle to moderate
trade winds N of 22N and moderate to fresh trade winds S of 22N.
Winds may briefly pulse to strong along the N coast of Hispaniola
during the late afternoons.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
nr/mt

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 13:03

105
AXNT20 KNHC 161803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/1500 UTC is near
42.0N 43.2W, or 510 nmi to the ESE of Cape Race in Newfoundland.
Ernesto is moving NE at 14 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40
knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 39N to 46N between 39W and 44W. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 06N-17N
along 23W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moderate deep
layer wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows dry air
affecting the wave. These two factors are contributing to the
lack of convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
04N-16N along 49W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a low deep
layer wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant
low level moisture associated with it. These factors along with
upper level diffluence support scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms from 07N-18N between 46W-60W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
09N-18N along 65W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a
moderate to strong deep layer wind shear environment. GOES-16
water vapor imagery at the lower levels show very dry air over
this region of the Caribbean. There is no convection associated
with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula S of 21N with axis
along 89W, moving W at 10-15 kt. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at
the lower levels shows very dry air over this region, which in
part is hindering convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
12N16W to 09N29W. The ITCZ begins near 09N29W and continues to
10N36W to 11N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 11N-14N E of 18W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120
nm either side of the ITCZ between 27W-37W. For more information
about convection, see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across Florida and large
portions of the Gulf to 96W, and weak winds in the range of 5-10
kt prevail in the region. Inflow of shallow moisture from the
Caribbean by southeasterly wind along with a middle level inverted
trough in the E basin support scattered showers and tstms N of
24N E of 90W. Winds in this region may be slightly higher in the
range of 15-20 kt enhanced by the convection. Otherwise, a surface
trough is in the W Bay of Campeche supporting scattered heavy
showers and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Vera Cruz. Surface
ridging will prevail across the basin through early next week.
Showers over the NE basin are forecast to continue through Sat
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant shallow moisture across most of
the Caribbean. In the western basin, diffluent flow aloft supports
a broad area of scattered showers and tstms from 11N-18N W of 76W.
A tropical wave is moving across the E basin, however both
Saharan Air Layer dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are
suppressing the development of convection at the time. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending from the Atlc continues to support
fresh to near gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean that
is forecast to continue the next two days...strongest winds will
be along the coast of Colombia. A tropical wave within 700 nm SE
of the Lesser Antilles will move across the Islands Sat morning
along with showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high and the Azores high covers most of the Atlc ocean
mainly supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge is
analyzed as a 1019 mb low centered near 32N55W from which a
surface trough extends SW to 24N63W. Scattered showers and tstms
are within 150 nm ahead of the low and trough N of 27N. A large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is SE of Lesser
Antilles associated with a tropical wave. Some development of
this system is possible over the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward toward the Windward Islands. By late
Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the
chances for additional development while the system moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser
Antilles on Friday and Saturday. For further information
associated with the tropical waves, see section above.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos/Hagen

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 07:05

666
AXNT20 KNHC 161205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/0900 UTC is near
40.8N 44.1W, or 975 km to the SE of Cape Race in Newfoundland.
Ernesto is moving NNE at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35
knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 38N to 43N between 40W and 45W. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W, from 04N-20N. There is no convection
associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is along 48W, from 03N-18N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-17N between 47W-58W.

A tropical wave is along 61W, from 09N-21N. There is no convection
associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is along 89W S of 22N. This wave stretches into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is no convection associated with
this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
12N16W to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins near 08N30W and continues to
07N40W to 09N47W then resumes near 08N49W to 07N57W. For
convection information see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is centered SE of Louisiana supporting
isolated rainshowers in the NE Gulf. Middle level diffluent flow
support scattered showers and tstms in the SE basin.

A surface ridge that extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue across the region
into early next week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 75W in Colombia beyond
84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 15N southward from 72W westward, in an area of middle
level to lower level cyclonic wind flow.

A surface ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N44W, in the central
Atlantic Ocean, to 27N47W, to an Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
circulation center that is near 22N60W, to a cyclonic circulation
center that is along the coast of the Dominican Republic near
19N69W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward between 60W and the Windward Passage, and it
spans the Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N44W 27N50W 22N60W, to the northern coast of
Puerto Rico along 66W/67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface trough
extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 33N57W,
through 30N58W, to 25N64W.

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough.

Surface high pressure will continue across the area through
Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MF/NR

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 08/16/2018 - 00:43

575
AXNT20 KNHC 160543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/0300 UTC is near
39.7N 45.1W, or 1010 km/545 nm, to the SE of Cape Race in
Newfoundland. Ernesto is moving NNE, or 25 degrees, 09 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 35N to
42N between 41W and 45W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W, from 20N southward.
Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side of the
wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 18N.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
within 600 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W, from 22N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N southward
between 58W and 65W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow also spans
the area of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 22N
southward. This wave stretches from the NE corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula beyond Honduras, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This
wave is moving through the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow
that is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 08N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N30W to 08N40W, to 09N47W, 07N54W, and to 07N58W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough and its accompanying cyclonic wind flow
cover the areas from east central Louisiana to the Texas coastal
plains/coastal waters.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico to the
south of the line that runs from the Florida Keys, to 25N86W,
to 24N93W, to 24N97W at the coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are to the east of the line that runs from SE
Louisiana along 90W, to the coast of Mexico near 25N97W.

The surface ridge, that extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico, will continue across the region
into early next week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 75W in Colombia beyond
84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 15N southward from 72W westward, in an area of middle
level to lower level cyclonic wind flow.

A surface ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N44W, in the central
Atlantic Ocean, to 27N47W, to an Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
circulation center that is near 22N60W, to a cyclonic circulation
center that is along the coast of the Dominican Republic near
19N69W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward between 60W and the Windward Passage, and it
spans the Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N44W 27N50W 22N60W, to the northern coast of
Puerto Rico along 66W/67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface trough
extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 33N57W,
through 30N58W, to 25N64W.

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough.

Surface high pressure will continue across the area through
Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 08/15/2018 - 19:06

179
AXNT20 KNHC 160005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 15/2100 UTC is near
39.0N 45.7W, or 1045 km to the SE of Cape Race in Newfoundland.
Ernesto is moving northward, or 05 degrees, 08 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Please
read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W, from 16N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on
either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 18N,
moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong rainshowers are covering the waters from 07N to
13N between 43W and 50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 38W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W, from 22N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 14N to 20N between 57W and 64W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow also spans the area of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 08N-22N, moving
W at 15 kt. This wave is repositioned along a 700 mb axis. This is
now the only wave located in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate convection is S of W Cuba from 19N- 22N between 80W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N20W and 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W
to 08N30W, to 10N37W, and to 06N57W near the coast of Brazil.
extends
from 07N21W to 10N36W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave
from 10N40W to 08N55W. Besides the showers mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 05N-12N between 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large
upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the
surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
30N68W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf
from 24N-30N between 83W-90W. Elsewhere, widely scattered
moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N
between 96W-98W.

The surface ridge, that extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico, will continue across the region
into early next week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off
the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical waves is over the W Caribbean Sea. See above.

A small upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near
25N78W producing scattered showers. Another upper level low is
centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W. Upper level
diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection S of W Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N from Costa Rica to N Colombia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13N between 70W-80W.

A surface ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 75W. A large
upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N56W.
Upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing convection
near 30N47W.

At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic
near 30N68W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N55W
to 26N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between
56W-61W. The tail end of another surface trough extends from
32N46W to 27N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N
between 45W-49W. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 38N28W with ridging N of 23N between 15W-45W.

Surface high pressure will continue across the area through
Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 08/15/2018 - 13:09

956
AXNT20 KNHC 151809
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
209 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Subtropical Storm Ernesto is centered near 38.1N 46.0W at 15/1500
UTC or 600 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is just off the coast of W Africa
along 19W, from 05N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are
possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 06N-19N,
moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on
either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 06N-22N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between 50W-
60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 08N-22N, moving
W at 15 kt. This wave is repositioned along a 700 mb axis. This is
now the only wave located in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate convection is S of W Cuba from 19N- 22N between 80W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa from near
09N13W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 10N36W. The
ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 10N40W to 08N55W. Besides
the showers mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between
40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large
upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the
surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
30N68W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf
from 24N-30N between 83W-90W. Elsewhere, widely scattered
moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N
between 96W-98W.

The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region
for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move
off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical waves is over the W Caribbean Sea. See above.

A small upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near
25N78W producing scattered showers. Another upper level low is
centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W. Upper level
diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection S of W Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N from Costa Rica to N Colombia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13N between 70W-80W.

A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain
fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest
of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 75W. A large
upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N56W.
Upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing convection
near 30N47W.

At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic
near 30N68W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N55W
to 26N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between
56W-61W. The tail end of another surface trough extends from
32N46W to 27N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N
between 45W-49W. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 38N28W with ridging N of 23N between 15W-45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 08/15/2018 - 12:26

610
AXNT20 KNHC 151726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Subtropical Storm Ernesto centered near 38.1N 46.0W at 15/1500
UTC or 600 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is just off the coast of W Africa
along 19W, from 05N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are
possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 06N-19N,
moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on
either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 06N-22N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between 50W-
60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 08N-22N, moving
W at 15 kt. This wave is repositioned along a 700 mb axis. This is
now the only wave located in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate convection is S of W Cuba from 19N- 22N between 80W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa from near
09N13W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 10N36W. The
ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 10N40W to 08N55W. Besides
the showers mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between
40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large
upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the
surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
30N68W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf
from 24N-30N between 83W-90W. Elsewhere, widely scattered
moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N
between 96W-98W.

The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region
for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move
off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical waves is over the W Caribbean Sea. See above.

A small upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near
25N78W producing scattered showers. Another upper level low is
centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W. Upper level
diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection S of W Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N from Costa Rica to N Colombia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13n between 70W-80W.

A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain
fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest
of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 75W. A large
upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N56W.
Upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing convection
near 30N47W.

At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic
near 30N68W. A surface is also over the W Atlantic from 32N55W to
26N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between
56W-61W. The tail end of another surface trough extends from
32N46W to 27N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N
between 45W-49W. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 38N28W with ridging N of N of 23N between 15W-45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa


Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 08/15/2018 - 07:03

024
AXNT20 KNHC 151203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

At 15/0900 UTC, the center of Subtropical Depression Five is
located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 45.6 West, about 882 nm
W of the Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009
mb (29.80 inches). The subtropical depression is moving toward the
north near 4 kt, and this general motion with a slight increase
in forward speed is expected today. A faster northeastward motion
is forecast to occur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained
winds are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so, and the subtropical depression
is expected to become a subtropical storm later today.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 22N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on
either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between
50W-60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 21N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of Jamaica
from 18N-20N between 75W-78W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over N Colombia and NW Venezuela between
07N-12N between 70W-78W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W, from 23N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 11N18W, 10N20W, and then to 10N33W. The
ITCZ is along 09N36W 08N43W 07N48W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 05N-11N between 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large
upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the
surface, a 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
30N70W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is over the NE Gulf from 25N-
29N between 83W-88W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is
over the Bay of Campeche from 17N-22N between 95W-98W.

The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region
for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move
off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above.

An upper level trough passes over Andros Island in the Bahamas,
to Belize in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover
the area that runs from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to
Guatemala to SE Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Rainshowers are possible also from 15N northward from 80W
westward, and elsewhere from 70W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to the
north of the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 360 nm of the center in NE semicircle.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 73W in Colombia and
84W in southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over Panama, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela
between 07N-12N between 70W-82W.

A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain
fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest
of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along the coast of the SE U.S.A.,
passing through 32N76W to Andros Island in the Bahamas, to Belize
in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of
the line that runs through 32N70W to 28N80W along the Florida
coast, from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to Guatemala to SE
Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are
possible over the W Atlantic W of 73W to include the Bahamas.

An upper level trough passes through 32N37W in the north central
Atlantic Ocean, to 22N47W to 14N60W, just to the east of
Martinique and Saint Lucia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 480 nm to the north of the trough between 49W and 60W.

A surface trough passes through 32N48W to 26N56W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N northward
between 44W and 60W.

Gentle to moderate trade winds, with a 30N surface ridge, will
prevail across the region for the rest of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 08/15/2018 - 00:22

338
AXNT20 KNHC 150522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 37N46W. The precipitation
pattern has become comparatively better organized during the last
6 hours. Satellite-derived wind data also indicate that the
surface circulation has become better defined since yesterday.
Conditions appear conducive for some additional development
during the next day or so. It is possible that a subtropical
depression or subtropical storm may form overnight or on
Wednesday, while the low moves northward to northeastward. The
low pressure center is expected to move northeastward over colder
waters and merge with a frontal zone that is in the northern
Atlantic Ocean later this week. The potential for this feature to
become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 22N
southward. 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either
side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 20N southward.
The wave is moving through the area of a pre-existing upper level
trough. Please read the first paragraph in the ATLANTIC OCEAN
section for more details about precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 21N
southward. Areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow are nearby. It
is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 23N
southward. The wave is moving through a pre-existing area of upper
level cyclonic wind flow. It is possible that any precipitation
may be more related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 11N18W, 10N20W, and then to 10N33W. The
ITCZ is along 09N36W 08N43W 07N48W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 03N to
13N between 34W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from Lake Okeechobee in south Florida to
24N91W, to the coastal plains of Mexico near 21N97W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 24N northward from 90W
eastward.

A surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean into
the northern Gulf of Mexico, will prevail across the region
through the weekend. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes over Andros Island in the Bahamas,
to Belize in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover
the area that runs from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to
Guatemala to SE Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Rainshowers are possible also from 15N northward from 80W
westward, and elsewhere from 70W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to the
north of the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 360 nm of the center in NE semicircle.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 73W in Colombia and
84W in southern Costa Rica. Numerous strong rainshowers are in
Colombia and Venezuela from 07N to 11N between 71W and 75W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 13N southward between 75W and land,
in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain
fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through the
weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along the coast of the SE U.S.A.,
passing through 32N76W to Andros Island in the Bahamas, to Belize
in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of
the line that runs through 32N70W to 28N80W along the Florida
coast, from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to Guatemala to SE
Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are
possible also from 15N northward from 80W westward, and elsewhere
from 70W westward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N37W in the north central
Atlantic Ocean, to 22N47W to 14N60W, just to the east of
Martinique and Saint Lucia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 480 nm to the north of the trough between 49W and 60W.

A surface trough passes through 32N48W to 26N56W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N northward
between 44W and 60W.

Gentle to moderate trade winds, with a 30N surface ridge, will
prevail across the region through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 08/14/2018 - 19:04

021
AXNT20 KNHC 150004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A low pressure center is near 37N47W, and it is interacting with a
strong upper level trough. Rainshowers with thunder are in the
eastern and southern sections of its circulation. It is possible
that this feature may acquire some subtropical characteristics
during the next day or so. The low pressure center is expected to
move northeastward, across an area of colder waters, and it will
merge with a frontal boundary that will be in the northern
Atlantic Ocean. The potential for this feature to become a
subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 22N
southward. 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 360 nm of the
wave to the east, and within 180 nm of the wave to the west.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 420 nm of the
wave to the east, and within 360 nm of the wave to the west.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 21N southward.
Areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow are nearby. It is possible
that any precipitation may be more related to the areas of upper
level cyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 23N
southward. The wave is moving through a pre-existing area of upper
level cyclonic wind flow. It is possible that any precipitation
may be more related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 10N17W, to 12N24W, to 09N40W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N40W to 08N47W, to 06N54W near the coast of French Guiana.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the
Atlantic Ocean from 03N to 13N between 34W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near
18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W.
A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W
spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain
showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W.

On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N86W
to 28N90W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
from 20N95W to 17N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough axis.

A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the
Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf of
Mexico each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to
E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker
on Thursday, allowing the winds to subside. A surface ridge near
the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will support light to
moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin through
Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba
near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing
convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the
NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras
and Nicaragua enhancing convection.

The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and
84W, to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.

A ridge extending across the western Atlantic will
maintain fresh to locally strong winds over the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela through Sun night.
Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere, except for the NW
Caribbean, where winds will be gentle to moderate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of the N Bahamas and W of 77W.
A large upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
W Atlantic near 33N59W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is
enhancing convection near 29N50W.

A ridge N of the forecast waters will support fresh
to strong winds along the N coast of Hispaniola and the approaches
to the Windward Passage during the evening and overnight hours
through Sun night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
will continue N of 23N, while moderate easterly winds will
generally prevail S of 23N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mrf/mt

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 08/14/2018 - 12:59

469
AXNT20 KNHC 141759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the
center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some
development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over
colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for
this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 08N to 20N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon
trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 08N to 21N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the
monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 46W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 10N to 22N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along
the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 22N between 68W and 72W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 10N to 22N,
moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 10N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to 08N450W to
the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 09N between 37W and 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near
18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W.
A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W
spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain
showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W.

On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N86W
to 28N90W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
from 20N95W to 17N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough axis.

A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the
Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each
night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will
accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle
of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will
support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of
the basin through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba
near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing
convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the
NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras
and Nicaragua enhancing convection.

The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and
84W, to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.

Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through tonight.
Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,
have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week
as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of the N Bahamas and W of 77W.
A large upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
W Atlantic near 33N59W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is
enhancing convection near 29N50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center near
30N67W to N Florida. The tail end of a surface trough extends
from 32N50W to 26N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the trough. Another 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 38N25W producing fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 08/14/2018 - 11:48

102
AXNT20 KNHC 141648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the
center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some
development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over
colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for
this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 08N to 20N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon
trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 08N to 21N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the
monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 46W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 10N to 22N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along
the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 22N between 68W and 72W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 10N to 22N,
moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 10N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to 08N450W to
the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 09N between 37W and 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near
18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W.
A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W
spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain
showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W.

On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N86W
to 28N90W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
from 20N95W to 17N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough axis.

A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the
Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each
night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will
accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle
of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will
support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of
the basin through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba
near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing
convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the
NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras
and Nicaragua enhancing convection.

The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and
84W, to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.

Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through tonight.
Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,
have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week
as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of the N Bahamas and W of 77W.
A large upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
W Atlantic near 33N59W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is
enhancing convection near 29N50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center near
30N67W to N Florida. The tail end of a surface trough extends
from 32N50W to 26N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the trough. Another 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 38N25W producing fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa


Categories: Weather

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