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National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
Updated: 40 min 14 sec ago

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

6 hours 12 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 22/1200 UTC,
consists of: the threat of SW near gale or gale at the end of the
forecast period in IRVING.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W, to
05N24W, 01N36W, 02N40W, and to 02N48W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 09W and
15W, from the Equator to 05N between 26W and 35W, and from 02N to
09N between 36W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level W and SW wind flow/some broad
anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Florida near 29N82W, to 26N91W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary at 26N91W, to 25N92W, and it continues to the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in Mexico just to the
south of the Big Bend of Texas. GALE-FORCE winds are present in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the
area that is from 27N southward from 90W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 24N northward from 83W westward, and from 24N
southward from 90W westward.

The surface pressure gradient between high pressure in Arkansas
and a frontal boundary across the basin is producing an area of
fresh to strong winds, mainly to the west of the current frontal
boundary. The front will stall from southern Florida to near
26N95W to Veracruz Mexico on Thursday. Surface low pressure, that
is developing along the front on Thursday, will generate strong
winds within 120 nm of the Texas coast. The wind speeds and the
sea heights will subside on Friday, as the low pressure center
and the front gradually dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area from 64W
westward. An upper level trough. An upper level trough extends
from NE Venezuela beyond 13N57W, into the Atlantic Ocean. A
middle level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the area, and
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A 700 mb inverted trough is
along 80W from 18N southward to Panama.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 09N to 24N between 55W and 68W/69W, covering parts
of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 73W in Colombia and
86W in NW Costa Rica, and beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 12N
southward from 76W westward. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are within 150 nm of the coast of Panama between 80W
and 83W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 12N southward
from 76W westward. High-level clouds are moving northward, in the
inland areas and coastal plains/coastal waters of Nicaragua and
Honduras.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.13 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.02 in Curacao.

Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue along the coast
of Colombia through Thursday. Trade winds are expected to subside
on Friday. Large long period NE swell in the Atlantic Ocean will
continue to impact the waters that are to the east of the Lesser
Antilles through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Florida near 29N82W, to 26N91W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary at 26N91W, to 25N92W, and it continues to the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in Mexico just to the
south of the Big Bend of Texas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
to the NW of the line that passes through 32N70W to 28N80W.

A second cold front passes through 32N65W to 29N70W and 29N74W.
A stationary front is along 29N74W, curving to 26N82W in Florida.
A surface trough is along 31N62W 28N69W 23N73W near the Bahamas.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from the NE Caribbean Sea
northward between 60W and 78W.

A third cold front passes through 32N10W, to the western part of
the Canary Islands, to 28N28W, 23N38W, and it continues a 1017 mb
low pressure center that is near 35N49W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 20N northward from 60W
eastward. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for Bermuda was
0.08, ending at 21/0000 UTC.

The current cold front from south central Florida to 29N74W will
reach the central Bahamas later today, then stall from Thursday
through Friday night. Strong surface high pressure, building
behind a reinforcing cold front on Friday and Saturday, will
cause strong easterly winds to develop to the NE of the Bahamas.
The sea heights outside the Bahamas will build to between 9 feet
and 14 feet from Friday through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 11/20/2018 - 23:33

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1233 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W, to
05N30W, 05N40W, and to 03N51W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered
to numerous strong rainshowers are in Liberia and Sierra Leone,
and in the coastal waters, from 05N to 09N between 08W and 13W.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers also are from 01N to 03N
between 27W and 32W, and from 02N to 04N between 37W and 39W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 09N southward from 42W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level W and SW wind flow/some broad
anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

A cold front passes through the SE corner of Georgia, to Florida
near 30N83W, to 27N90W and 26N92W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary at 26N92W, and it continues to the coast of
Mexico near 20N96W, and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in
Mexico just to the south of the Big Bend of Texas. A surface
trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 20N95W to
18N94W at the northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. GALE-FORCE winds are present in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from
21N southward between 93W and 95W. Other rainshowers are possible,
23N northward, and from 23N southward from 93W westward.

The current frontal boundary will continue to shift southward
during the next couple of days while the western part remains
stationary. The front will stall from S Florida to the NW Gulf of
Mexico to the Bay of Campeche by Thursday, and will dissipate by
Friday. A second cold front will shift across the northern waters
from late Friday through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area from 64W
westward. An upper level trough. An upper level trough extends
from NE Venezuela beyond 13N57W, into the Atlantic Ocean. A
middle level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the area, and
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A 700 mb inverted trough is
along 80W from 18N southward to Panama.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 09N to 24N between 56W and 68W/69W, covering parts of
the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 75W in Colombia and
beyond the waters that are along the western part of Panama/
at the southernmost point of Costa Rica, along 83W, and beyond
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 76W westward.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm
of the coast of Panama between 81W and 83W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.13 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.02 in Curacao.

Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue along the coast
of Colombia through Thursday. Long period NE swell in the Atlantic
Ocean will continue to impact the waters that are to the east of
the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through the SE corner of Georgia, to Florida
near 30N83W, to 27N90W and 26N92W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary at 26N92W, and it continues to the coast of
Mexico near 20N96W, and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in
Mexico just to the south of the Big Bend of Texas. Rainshowers
are possible to the NW of the line that 32N74W to 30N81W.

A second cold front passes through 32N68W to 29N73W, to the
western coast of Florida near 27N82W. A pre-frontal trough is
within 240 nm to the southeast of the cold front from 24N to 31N.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm
to 180 nm to the W/NW of the line that passes through Bermuda to
29N70W to 25N80W at the eastern coast of Florida.

A third cold front passes through 32N10W, to just to the north of
the Canary Islands near 29N18W, to 28N28W, 24N38W, and 25N40W.
The front becomes stationary at 25N40W, and it continues
northwestward to 32N47W, reaching eventually a 1017 mb low
pressure center that is near 34N51W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 27N to 32N between Africa and 29W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W
eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period
that ended at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
are 0.08 in Bermuda.

The current cold front from 31N70W to 29N75W will shift E of the
area on Wednesday. Another cold front will move across the waters
that are to the N and NE of the Bahamas from Thursday through
Friday, when the front will stall from near 27N65W to the
northern Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 11/20/2018 - 17:37

000
AXNT20 KNHC 202337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N12W. The ITCZ extends from 05N12W to 05N20W to
03N30W to 04N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is off the
coast of W Africa from 01N-07N between 09W-15W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-04N between 31W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near
30N84W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W to the NW
Gulf near 25N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front. 15-25 kt N winds are W of
the front. A prefrontal trough extends from central Florida to the
SE Gulf near 25N86W. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted
over the Gulf.

Expect the front over the eastern gulf to continue to shift
southward the next couple of days while the western portion
becomes stationary. The front will stall from S Florida to the NW
Gulf near 26N95W to near the Bay of Campeche by Thu Night, and
dissipate by Fri. A second cold front will shift across the
northern waters late Fri through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea. An area
of scattered showers are N of the ABC Islands near 14N70W. The SW
Caribbean has scattered showers S of 11N to include Costa Rica
and Panama. The remainder of the Caribbean has mostly fair
weather. In the upper levels a large upper level high is centered
over the central Caribbean near 13N78W, that dominates the entire
Caribbean.

Expect fresh to strong winds to continue along the coast of
Colombia through Thu. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic
will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through Wed afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N71W to
central Florida near 28N80W. A prefrontal trough extends from
31N67W to the central Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front and trough. A 1021 high is centered over
the central Atlantic near 27N48W. A cold front dips into the E
Atlantic from 31N14W to 29N29W to 25N37W. A stationary front
continues to 31N45W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front E of 30W.

Expect over the W Atlantic for a cold front to move from the Gulf
of Mexico to the W Atlantic Wed through Fri night, then become
stationary Sat. High pres will build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 11/20/2018 - 17:15

000
AXNT20 KNHC 202315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N12W. The ITCZ extends from 05N12W to 05N20W to
03N30W to 04N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is off the
coast of W Africa from 01N-07N between 09W-15W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-04N between 31W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near
30N84W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W to the NW
Gulf near 25N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front. 15-25 kt N winds are W of
the front. A prefrontal trough extends from central Florida to the
SE Gulf near 25N86W. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted
over the Gulf.

Expect the front over the eastern gulf to continue to shift
southward the next couple of days while the western portion
becomes stationary. The front will stall from S Florida to the NW
Gulf near 26N95W to near the Bay of Campeche by Thu Night, and
dissipate by Fri. A second cold front will shift across the
northern waters late Fri through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea. An area
of scattered showers are N of the ABC Islands near 14N70W. The SW
Caribbean has scattered showers S of 11N to include Costa Rica
and Panama. The remainder of the Caribbean has mostly fair
weather. In the upper levels a large upper level high is centered
over the central Caribbean near 13N78W, that dominates the entire
Caribbean.

Expect fresh to strong winds to continue along the coast of
Colombia through Thu. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic
will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through Wed afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N71W to
central Florida near 28N80W. A prefrontal trough extends from
31N67W to the central Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front and trough. A 1021 high is centered over
the central Atlantic near 27N48W. A cold front dips into the E
Atlantic from 31N14W to 29N29W to 25N37W. A stationary front
continues to 31N45W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front E of 30W.

Expect over the W Atlantic for a cold front to move from the Gulf
of Mexico to the W Atlantic Wed through Fri night, then become
stationary Sat. High pres will build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 11/20/2018 - 12:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 0512W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ axis begins and continues to 05N21W to 03N30W to 05N37W and
to 04N45W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm
north of the ITCZ axis. Scattered showers are within 90 nm either
side of the ITCZ axis between 12W and 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the upper-levels, broad troughing that extends from the Great
Lakes region of the U.S. to the far NW Gulf is keeping west to
southwest upper winds over the northern portion of the Gulf. At
the surface, a cold front is making headway the Florida panhandle,
and as of 15Z, it is analyzed from near Tallahassee, Florida
southwestward to 28N90W where it becomes stationary to 28N92W and
warm front to a 1019 mb low at 28N92W. A cold front extends from
the low to 24N95W and to inland Mexico at 21N97W. It continues
northwestward well inland Mexico. Satellite imagery shows
multilayer clouds with embedded scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 150 nm southeast and south of the cold front
to the east of 90W, and also within 60 nm either side of the
cold front from 21N to 25N. Broken to overcast low clouds with
embedded areas of rain and scattered showers are west and
northwest of the cold front west of 90W, except within about 30 nm
of the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi. A stationary front
extends northeast to southwest from the Atlantic to across central
Florida to near 28N83W, where it transitions to a trough to
24N86W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60
nm east of the trough north of 25N, and within 90 nm west and
northwest of the trough from 24N to 25N.

As for the forecast, the 1019 mb low will dissipate by this
evening, while the cold front will become stationary from southern
Florida to the NW Gulf near 26N95W and to near Veracruz Mexico by
Thu Night. The trough over the eastern Gulf will dissipate by late
tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery shows broad upper-level anticyclonic flow
covering just about the entire basin west of about 67W, with the
associated upper anticyclone centered over the far eastern Pacific
Ocean. Broad cyclonic upper-level flow is east of 67W. A mid-
level inverted trough extends from Panama to 15N82W and to near
18N83W. Scattered patches of low-level clouds moving quickly
westward with isolated showers are seen south of 20N west of 80W,
while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is confined to
the south of 13N west of 79W. This activity is more due to low-
level speed convergence from strong trades advecting into an area
of lighter winds. Isolated showers also moving quickly westward
are elsewhere across the basin. An area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is over the eastern Caribbean from 12N to 15N
between 66W and 70W. This activity is being enhanced by a mid-
level shortwave through.

As for the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue along
the coast of Colombia through Thu. Large long period NE swell
over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of the
Lesser Antilles through Wed afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic cold front enters the area near 32N74W and
continues to 29N77W, where becomes stationary to inland central
Florida near Coco Beach and continues to the west-central Florida
coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
north of 27N and west of 76W. This activity is being aided by
a mid to upper shortwave trough that is rounding the base of
a broad upper trough northwest of the area. A weak 1017 mb low is
centered at 30N71W, with a trough extending southwestward to
the central Bahamas and to the coast of Cuba at 22N78W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the trough north of 28N
between 60W and 69W.

Over the far eastern Atlantic, a narrow upper-level trough extends
from near 32N08W to 22N12W and to an upper low at 11N18W. This
feature is sustaining a cold front that extends from a 1012 mb low
just north of the area at 33N15W, southwestward from this low to
30N20W to a frontal wave at 29N30W and continues to 26N37W, where
it becomes a stationary front to 29N44W and to a 1019 mb low
north of the area at 32N53W. A trough extends from this low to
near 28N58W. A 1023 mb high is analyzed south of the stationary
front near 27N49W. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast
mainly low and mid-level clouds along and within 60 nm south of
the cold front and frontal wave east of 30W. Patches of rain
and scattered showers are possible with these clouds. Isolated
showers are possible elsewhere along the stationary front and
with the trough that extends from the 1019 mb low. Relatively weak
high pressure is present over the remainder of the discussion
area.

As for the forecast, the trough that extends to the central
Bahamas and to near the coast of Cuba will dissipate by Wed. The
cold front over the northwest portion will move southward over
the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas Thu through Fri
night, then become stationary Sat. A tight pressure gradient
resulting from strong high pressure that will build southward Fri
through Sat night will bring strong winds northeast of the
Bahamas. Seas outside the Bahamas will build to between 9 and 14
ft from Fri through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 11/20/2018 - 06:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W, to 01N24W,
04N34W, and 03N45W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are to the east of 10W, and within 90 nm on either
side of the line that runs from 11N15W 07N16W 05N17W 03N17W 03N25W
04N31W 04N42W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from
12N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level W and SW wind flow spans the entire
area.

A stationary front passes through southern Mississippi, to 29N93W,
to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 27N94W, continuing
to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W, and then continuing inland,
northwestward, into north central Mexico, near 29N104W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that runs from 20N96W at the coast of Mexico, to
23N90W, beyond 26N82W along the western coast of Florida.

A cold front across central Florida will drift southward today,
then become stationary across the Gulf of Mexico along 26N on
Wednesday. A surface low pressure center is expected to develop
offshore the Texas coast on Thursday, then track eastward across
the northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, accompanied by
fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A middle
level inverted trough extends from the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, just off the coast of the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to Panama.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from 18N southward from 83W westward. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are in broken low level clouds, elsewhere,
from 63W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are moving
westward, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line that
runs from 20N66W to 16N63W to 15N62W.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 75W in Colombia and
beyond the waters that are along the southern part of Panama,
beyond 84W at the southernmost point of Costa Rica, and beyond into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered strong rainshowers are in the
coastal waters from Colombia to Costa Rica between 76W and 83W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.72 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao.

Fresh to strong winds will continue along the coast of Colombia
this morning. Trade winds are expected to diminish later today,
then return again tonight and continue through Wednesday night as
a surface ridge builds north of the area. Large long period NE
swell in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to impact the waters
to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 33N16W, to 30N29W and 27N39W. The front becomes stationary
at 27N39W, and it continues northwestward to a 1019 mb low
pressure center that is near 31N45W. The stationary front
continues to 33N50W to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near
32N55W, and continuing still to 30N67W. The front becomes warm at
30N67W, and it continues to 30N69W, and to a 1017 mb low pressure
center that is near 28N72W. A surface trough continues from 28N72W
to 22N77W in SE Cuba. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the
north of the line that runs from 22N73W to 26N60W to 25N40W to
25N30W, beyond 30N10W at the coast of Morocco.

A cold front is along the eastern coast of the U.S.A., passing
through 32N75W, to 28N80W at the eastern coast of Florida, to
27N84W in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just off the western coast
of Florida. Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line
that runs from 24N80W beyond 32N67W.

An upper level trough is digging through Morocco and Algeria,
through Mauritania, to 07N20W in the Atlantic Ocean. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere to the north of the line that runs from
10N53W to 13N40W to 16N30W, beyond 20N16W at the coast of
Mauritania.

A weak low pressure center that is near 28N72W will meander today,
then merge with a cold front that extends from 31N77W to central
Florida by this evening. A stronger cold front will move southward
across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas from Thursday
through Friday night, and then become stationary on Saturday.
Strong surface high pressure, building southward on Friday and
Saturday, will allow strong winds to develop NE of the Bahamas,
and increase seas outside the Bahamas to 9 to 14 feet, from Friday
through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 11/19/2018 - 23:47

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W, to the
Equator along 22W, to 03N29W and 04N33W, continuing to 04N47W,
and to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. A surface trough is along
33W/36W, from 10N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N southward from 42W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level W and SW wind flow spans the entire
area.

A cold front passes through southern Mississippi, to a 1016 mb
low pressure center that is near 28N94W. A cold front continues
from the low pressure center, to 23N96W, and to the coast of
Mexico near 23N98W. A stationary front continues inland, to
north central Mexico, near 30N105W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N northward between
86W and 94W, between the Florida Panhandle and the coastal waters
of Texas.

A N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 83W/84W from 26N to the
coast of NW Cuba. Rainshowers are possible within 30 nm on either
side of the trough.

The part of the current cold front that is to the N of the 1016 mb
low pressure center will continue to move E, and extend from
Tampa Bay to 25N92W on Wednesday morning. The remainder of the
front will stall in the adjacent waters of Mexico, with the tail
reaching the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong north winds
are forecast west of the front all the way to the Bay of Campeche
starting tonight, and continuing through Wednesday morning. The
stationary front then will drift northwestward to the NW Gulf of
Mexico, where its remnants will transition to a surface low
pressure center early on Thursday. The low pressure center will
move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Friday,
accompanied by fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A middle
level inverted trough extends from the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, just off the coast of the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to Panama.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 75W in Colombia and
beyond the waters that are along the southern part of Panama,
beyond 84W at the southernmost point of Costa Rica, and beyond into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered strong rainshowers are along
the coast of Colombia from 77W eastward, along the coast of Panama
between 78W and 79W. Isolated moderate to strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 11N southward from 80W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.72 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao.

Strong surface high pressure north of the region will continue to
support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and the
gulf of Venezuela through Tue morning. Winds will diminish
briefly, as a front passes to the north of the area. The winds
will return again on Tuesday night, and continue through Thursday
morning as a new ridge builds north of the area. Mixed NE and E
swell over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of
the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds
will dominate the central and eastern waters the remaining of the
forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N22W, curving to 30N30W and 27N40W.
A stationary front continues from 27N40W, to to a 1020 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N46W. The stationary front
continues to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 32N56W.
The stationary front continues to 30N67W, and to a 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 28N72W. The stationary front is
dissipating from 28N72W to 22N77W at the coast of SE Cuba.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the north of the line that
runs from 21N75W to 23N68W to 26N57W to 28N42W to 28N20W,
beyond 30N10W at the coast of Morocco.

A developing cold front is along the eastern coast of the U.S.A.,
passing through 32N77W, to 29N80W, across Florida, to 27N83W in
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just off the western coast of Florida.
Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that runs
from 24N80W beyond 32N69W.

An upper level trough is digging through Morocco and Algeria,
through Mauritania, to 08N21W in the Atlantic Ocean. One surface
trough is inland in Africa, from Algeria to Mali to southern
Mauritania. A second surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along
23W/24W from 16N to 22N. Rainshowers are possible from 17N to 22N
between 20W and 28W.

The remainder the current 32N67W-to-22N77W front is forecast to
dissipate on Tuesday. The low pressure center will meander, and
then merge with a cold front, that will reach from near 31N67W to
25N73W on Tuesday evening and from near 29N65W to 27N69W on
Wednesday evening. Strong high pressure building behind this
front will support fresh to near gale force NE to E winds and
building seas to the N and NE of the Bahamas from Thursday night
through Friday evening. These winds will veer to E-SE from Friday
evening into Saturday morning, ahead of the next cold front to
enter the NW waters on Saturday afternoon. Fresh to strong winds
will prevail across the northern waters through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 11/19/2018 - 17:32

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01N22W to
05N32W, then resumes west of a surface trough at 05N37W and
continues to 02N50W. The surface trough stretches from 10N32W to
02N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to
11N between 10N-20W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity. Similar convection is also seen
where the trough meets the ITCZ. A plume of mid to upper clouds
extends NE just ahead of an upper-level trough that crosses the
Lesser Antilles near 15N61W, and continues SW to near the ABC
Islands.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from southern Louisiana
to a weak 1016 mb low pressure centered near 27N96W. A cold front
extends from that low southward to near Tampico, Mexico, then
continues NW, as stationary front, over Mexico. Abundant cloudiness
with embedded showers and isolated tstms are noted in association
with the fronts/low. The cold front will become stationary this
evening. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late
tonight and merge with the stationary front early on Tue as it
then extends from the near Panama City to weak low pressure of
1018 mb near 27N92W, and from the low to near Veracruz, Mexico.
Then, the cold will reach from near Cross City, in N Florida to
near 26N90W and to Tampico by Tue evening. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas are forecast in the wake of the
front over the western Gulf. The western portion of the front
will stall and then drift northwestward over the far western Gulf
through late Wed night. The eastern portion of the front will
become stationary across the southeastern Gulf by Thu. Weak high
pressure will build over the area in the wake of the front.

A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and runs from
27N84W to 22N85W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough
axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh
to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean, with winds of
25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are also noted across the waters just E of the
Lesser Antilles. Strong high pressure north of the region will
continue to support fresh to strong winds along the coast of
Colombia through Tue morning. Winds will briefly diminish as a
front passes to the north of the area. The winds will return again
Tue night and continue through Wed night as a new ridge builds
north of the area. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic
will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through Wed. A surface trough previously located over the Gulf of
Honduras has dissipated but isolated showers and tstms are still
affecting the NW Caribbean mainly S of 20N W of 83W. Scattered
showers and tstms are over the SW Caribbean in association with
the monsoon trough. This convective activity is affecting parts of
Panama and Costa Rica. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in
the trade wind flow, are observed across the remainder of the
basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is leading to scattered showers
and thunderstorms across Jamaica and regional waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends along 31N-32N between 30W-60W. This
front enters the forecast region near 31N60W and extends to a
1016 mb low pressure located near 27N70W, then continues SW to the
coast of eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers are near the
low center. The front will remain nearly stationary through Tue.
Then, a reinforcing cold front will reach the waters NE Florida
on Wed, and will help the stationary front to transition to a cold
front moving eastward. Strong high pressure over the NE of United
States will bring fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-9
ft across the waters N of 27N W of 65W late Thu into Fri. The
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure situated near 28N50W. A
frontal trough is N of the Cabo Verde Islands and stretches from
the coast of Mauritania near 19N66W to 18N35W. Some low level
clouds are associated with this trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 11/19/2018 - 11:33

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 03N25W
to 04N33W. The ITCZ resumes west of a surface trough near 05N37W
and continues to 04N43W. A surface trough curves from 09N31W
08N34W to 05N35W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
from the Equator to 12N between 05W-21W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 02N-10N between 21W-45W. An upper
level trough is pulling mid and high level clouds northeastward,
well to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 120 nm of a line from 11N59W to 14N55W to
20N49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front over southern Louisiana passes midway between
Lafayette and Lake Charles, enters the Gulf near 30N93W, and
continues to a 1016 mb low near 27N96W. A cold front extends from
that low southward to 24.5N97W and westward into northern Mexico
near 24N98W to 25N100W, where it becomes a stationary front and
continues farther inland. Broken to overcast clouds along with
scattered showers and thunderstorms cover the Gulf of Mexico to
the NW of a line extending from 23N98W to 26N89W to 30.5N86.5W.

A surface trough is analyzed from 27N84W to 25N84.5W to western
Cuba near 22N83W. Isolated showers are possible over the SE Gulf
of Mexico near the trough axis extending to near the lower
Florida Keys and offshore the SW coast of Florida.

The cold front that extends SW from the low near 27N96W will
become stationary this evening. A cold front will move off the
Texas coast late tonight and merge with the stationary front early
Tue as it then extends from near Panama City to weak low pressure
of 1018 mb near 27N92W, and from the low to near Veracruz. The
cold front will reach from near Cross City, Florida to near 26N90W
to Tampico by Tue evening. Fresh to strong north winds are
forecast west of this front across the W central Gulf and western
Bay of Campeche through late Tue night, then in the far
southwestern Gulf through early Wed afternoon. The western portion
of the front will stall and then drift northwestward over the far
western Gulf through late Wed night. The eastern portion of the
front will become stationary across the southeastern Gulf by Thu.
Low pressure is expected to develop offshore Texas Thu and track
eastward across the northern Gulf through Fri accompanied by fresh
to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW surface trough is along 20N85W to 18N87W to 16N88W,
just to the east of Belize and to the north of western Honduras.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 20N southward from
85W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N between 75W in Colombia and beyond
83W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring over Panama and the waters of the extreme
SW Caribbean south of 11N between 76W-84W.

A small area of upper-level divergence in between Jamaica and
Hispaniola is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms from
18N-19N between 75W-78W.

The surface trough over the Gulf of Honduras will continue to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight,
including in parts of Belize. Strong high pressure north of the
region will continue to support fresh to strong winds along the
coast of Colombia through Tue morning. Winds will briefly diminish
as a front passes to the north of the area. The winds will return
again Tue night and continue through Wed night as a new ridge
builds north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 32N79W off the coast of South
Carolina, to 29N80W to 27N80W off the coast of Palm Beach County
Florida. Scattered showers are seen just off the E coast of
Florida from 26.5N-29N between 79W-80.5W.

A 1019 mb surface low is near 32N59W. A stationary front extends
from the low SW to a 1016 mb low near 27N70W. The stationary front
continues from there to 22N76W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 90 nm of a line from 32N53W to 30N59W. Elsewhere,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near the
front.

Farther east, a cold front over the NE Atlantic enters the area
near 32N31W and extends SW to a 1018 mb low near 31N32W. A cold
front extends westward from the low to 30N37W to 31N43W, where it
becomes a stationary front, which continues to 32N47W to 33N53W to
the 1019 mb surface low mentioned in the previous paragraph.
Broken low clouds are seen and scattered showers are possible
within 120 nm south of the frontal boundary and extending north of
boundary to the north of the forecast area.

A NE-SW cold front over north Africa moves through Mauritania near
20N16W, dissipating to 19N20W. A surface trough is from 19N20W to
19N28W to 17N35W to 16N46W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are
possible within 90 nm of the trough axis.

Large long period NE swell from over the Atlantic will continue
to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed
afternoon. The stationary front over the western Atlantic will
dissipate tonight. The 1016 mb low near 27N70W will meander over
the region and then merge with a cold front that will reach from
near 31N69W to 28N77W Tue evening and from near 28N65W to 25N77W
Wed evening. A strong cold front will move southward over the
waters north and northeast of the Bahamas Thu through Fri night.
Strong high pressure building behind this front will support fresh
to strong northeast to east winds and building seas over these
waters Thu night through Fri night.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 11/19/2018 - 05:50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W to 04N16W and 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W,
to 03N31W to 04N42W. One surface trough curves from 09N32W to
07N34W and 05N35W. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N to
10N between 29W and 36W. A second surface trough is along 08N39W
06N40W 04N43W 02N46W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 35W and 45W. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N to 06N between 13W and
16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 01N to 09N between 09W and 20W. An upper level
trough is pulling middle level and high level clouds
northeastward, away from the coasts of Guyana and NE Venezuela.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 14N
southward between 53W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.

A cold front is in the NW Gulf of Mexico waters, from the SW
corner of Louisiana, to the coastal waters of the middle Texas
Gulf coast, to the edge of the coast of the lower Rio Grande
Valley of Texas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of
the line that runs from the Florida Panhandle to 23N97W along the
coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N
northward from 90W eastward, and from 23N southward from 90W
westward.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 27N84W, 24N84W, and
22N83W in NW Cuba. Rainshowers are possible, in low level clouds,
that are in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward from 84W
eastward.

The current cold front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico in
Mexico by tonight. A reinforcing cold front will move off the
Texas coast early on Tuesday, merging with the stationary front,
then extending from the Florida Big Bend to 27N92W to near Vera
Cruz by early Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds are forecast W of
this front in the W central Gulf and W Bay of Campeche through
Wednesday morning. The western part of the front will stall and
then drift northwestward through midweek. The eastern part of the
front will stall across the SE Gulf by Thursday. Surface low
pressure will develop offshore Texas on Thursday, and track E
across the N Gulf of Mexico through Friday, accompanied by fresh
to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW surface trough is along 21N85W to 18N87W to 16N88W
in Guatemala, just to the east of the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 19N southward from 83W westward.

A middle level inverted trough is in the western sections of the
Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible during the rest of the day
in the coastal waters from eastern Honduras southward.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond the waters that are along the southern part of Panama,
beyond 83W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N southward
and from 75W westward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 19/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.39 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.11 in Curacao.

A Gulf of Honduras surface trough will continue to support
scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms through Monday night,
including in parts of Belize. Strong high pressure, that is
to the north of the region, will continue to support fresh to
strong winds along the coast of Colombia through Tuesday morning.
The wind speeds will diminish briefly, as a front passes N of the
area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse again in this region on
Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday night, as a new ridge
builds N of the area. Large swell in the Atlantic Ocean will
continue to impact the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through
Wednesday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 32N80W off the coast of South
Carolina, to 30N80W, and to 28N80W along the eastern coast of
Florida. Rainshowers are possible from 26N northward from 77W
westward, from the NW Bahamas northward.

A stationary front passes through 32N60W, to a 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 30N65W, to a second 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 27N70W, and to 23N74W in the SE
Bahamas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 28N northward
between 42W and 65W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 18N northward from 40W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 19/0000 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.87 in Bermuda.

An upper level trough is digging toward southern Morocco. The
trough moves across the Western Sahara and Mauritania, to 09N27W
in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front passes through 32N02E in
Algeria, through Mali to Mauritania, to 20N20W in the Atlantic
Ocean. A surface trough continues from 20N20W, to 19N30W, 17N40W,
and 17N46W. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side
of the line that runs from 20N17W to 21N26W to 18N34W to 17N39W
to 16N42W to 17N47W.

The southern 1016 mb low pressure center will meander over the
region and then merge with a cold front that will reach from
31N69W to 28N77W on Tuesday evening, then from 28N65W to 25N77W
Wednesday evening. Another cold front will move S across the
waters N and NE of the Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Strong high
pressure building behind this front will support fresh to strong
NE to E winds and seas building to 8 to 14 ft over these waters.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 11/19/2018 - 00:00

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W and 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W, to 03N31W, 04N41W, and 04N50W. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are from 06N to 08N between 39W and 42W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to
06N between 10W and 21W, from 07N to 09N between 30W and 35W, and
from 03N to 06N between 38W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N southward from 50W
eastward, and from 10N southward between 50W and 60W. An upper
level trough is pulling middle level and high level clouds
northeastward, within 150 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 08N60W to 14N54W to 19N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.

A cold front is in the NW Gulf of Mexico waters, from east Texas,
just into the waters about 45 nm offshore from the middle Texas
Gulf coast, to the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Rainshowers
are possible, in broken low level and middle level clouds, from
90W westward.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 27N86W, 24N84W, and
22N81W in NW Cuba. Rainshowers are possible, in low level clouds,
that are in the Gulf of Mexico from 28N southward from 87W
eastward.

The current cold front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico,
Mexico by Monday night. Fresh to strong winds are forecast behind
the front affecting the western Bay of Campeche through Wednesday
morning. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas coast
early on Tuesday, merging with the northern half of the
stationary front that is forecast to extend from the Florida Big
Bend to 27N92W by early Wednesday morning. The remaining part of
the front will stall and then drift northwest through midweek
A low pressure center is forecast to develop in the NW waters on
Thursday morning, with fresh to strong winds affecting the
northern waters through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW surface trough is along 21N85W to 18N87W to 16N88W
in Guatemala, just to the east of the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 19N southward from 83W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal waters from 15N
southward, from Nicaragua to Panama. A middle level inverted
trough is in the western sections of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 77W and beyond 85W,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 10N
southward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A Gulf of Honduras surface trough will continue to support
scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms through Monday night,
including in parts of Belize. Strong high pressure, that is
anchored near Nova Scotia, will continue to support fresh to
strong winds along the coast of Colombia through Tuesday morning.
The wind speeds will diminish briefly afterward, as a front moves
N of the area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse again in this
region on Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday night, as a
new ridge starts to build behind that front. Large swell in the
Atlantic Ocean will continue to impact the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles through Wednesday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N53W, curving to a 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 30N65W, to a 1015 mb low pressure
center that is near 27N70W, and to 23N74W in the SE Bahamas.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 27N northward between 45W
and 70W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 18N
northward from 40W westward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N11W, across Morocco and
Mauritania, to 09N32W in the Atlantic Ocean. A second cold front
passes through Algeria along the Prime Meridian and 32N, through
western Mauritania near 21N17W and 20N21W. A surface trough
continues from 20N21W, to 20N30W, 18N35W, and 18N42W. Rainshowers
are possible are within 120 nm on either side of the line that
runs from 17N46W to 18N35W to 20N27W beyond 21N17W.

The current stationary front will weaken gradually through Monday
night when it is forecast to dissipate. A center of low pressure
is forecast to develop NE of the central Bahamas on Monday
morning, which will move northward through early Tuesday. The
low pressure center then will merge with a reinforcing cold
front, that will move across the the NE waters through Wednesday.
A strong pressure gradient between that front and strong high
pressure behind it will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in
the northern waters from Thursday night through Friday.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 11/18/2018 - 17:57

000
AXNT20 KNHC 182357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to 04N37W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 220
nm north and 180 nm south of the boundary between the west coast
of Africa to 30W. Between 30W-50W, scattered showers are along and
in the vicinity of the boundary with scattered to broken cloud
cover associated with the convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.
A surface trough is over the SW the Gulf of Mexico parallel to
the coast of Mexico from 26N97W to 20N97W. Scattered showers are
occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico, mainly west of 90W.
This includes areas within 90 nm along the coast of Texas.

A 1016 mb surface low is centered near 24N83W. A surface trough
passes from 27N85W to the low and into the NW Caribbean near
20N82W.

Moderate to fresh SE flow will set up across the western Gulf
today ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas
tonight. This front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico,
Mexico by Mon night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will move off
the Texas coast early Tue, merging with the stationary front, then
reaching from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico Tue
night. The western portion will stall Tue night and then drift
northwest through midweek. The eastern portion will continue SE,
reaching from S Florida to the central Gulf by late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1015 mb low centered just north of western Cuba near 24N83W
extends a trough to 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are near the Isle of Youth, generally between 82W-84W. Another
surface trough extends from 17N83W to southern Belize. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 17N-20N between 82W-87W.

The SW end of a stationary front goes through the SE Bahamas and
ends over eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are seen in the area
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba as well as in the Windward
Passage.

The monsoon trough near Panama is bringing scattered moderate
convection to the far SW Caribbean south of 10N between 75W-82W,
and over Colombia and Panama.

Convergence along this trough will continue to support scattered
showers and tstms through Mon night. Strong high pressure building
N of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast
of Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through
early Tue as the center of high pressure shifts eastward across
the NW Atlc waters. Large swell over the Atlantic Ocean will
continue to impact the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Tue
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the forecast area near 30N63W and
continues to a 1016 mb low near 30N65W. The stationary front
continues to a 1015 mb low near 27N70W, and continues to the SE
Bahamas near 22N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of a line from
28N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 28N-32N
between 57W-66W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
elsewhere along the front.

A second cold front passes through the west coast of the country
of Western Sahara near 21N17W to 20N20W and transitions to a
dissipating front from that point to 20N24W. A surface trough
continues from that point westward to 19N43W. Scattered moderate
convection is located north of 23N and east of 24W, and this
activity is moving SE toward the country of Western Sahara. Long
period NW swell in excess of 15 ft are affecting the entire NE
Atlantic north of 18N and east of 35W, including the Madeira and
Canary Islands.

Relatively quiet weather is over the central subtropical Atlantic
due to a 1023 mb surface high near 27N46W.

Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly
within 120 nm NW of the stationary front through early this
evening. The front will remain nearly stationary through Mon
night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will reach the north waters
Tue and merge with the stationary front.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 11/18/2018 - 12:08

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181808 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
108 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Updated to include large swell near the Canary Islands

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 07N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from
06N17W to 05N22W to 05N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate to
locally strong convection is within 180 nm south and 270 nm north
of the boundaries between the west coast of Africa and 32W.
Between 32W-52W, scattered moderate to locally strong convection
extends from near the ITCZ to 180 nm north of the ITCZ. Broken
cloud cover and scattered showers cover the area from 10N-17N
between 50W-59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.
A surface trough is over the SW the Gulf of Mexico parallel to
the coast of Mexico from 25N97W to 22N97W to 18N95W. Scattered
rainshowers are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico,
mainly west of 93W. This includes areas within 90 nm of the
coast of Texas between Freeport and Brownsville.

A 1015 mb surface low is centered near 23N83W. A surface trough
passes from 29N86W to 26N84W to the low and into the NW Caribbean
near 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the
Florida Straits and western Florida Keys.

Moderate to fresh SE flow will set up across the western Gulf
today ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas
tonight. This front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico,
Mexico by Mon night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will move off
the Texas coast early Tue, merging with the stationary front,
then reaching from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico Tue
night. The western portion will stall Tue night and then drift
northwest through midweek. The eastern portion will continue SE,
reaching from S Florida to the central Gulf by late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1015 mb low centered just north of western Cuba near 23N83W
extends a trough to 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are near the Isle of Youth, generally between 81W-84W. Another
surface trough extends from 18N83W to southern Belize. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 16N-19N between 84W-88W.

The SW end of a stationary front goes through the SE Bahamas and
ends over eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are seen in the area
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba as well as in the Windward
Passage.

The monsoon trough near Panama is bringing scattered moderate
convection to the far SW Caribbean south of 10N between 76W-82W,
and over Panama.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible in the
northwest Caribbean, especially along the surface trough located
just north of Honduras. Strong high pressure building N of the
area is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast of
Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through
early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the forecast area near 32N58W and
continues to a 1016 mb low near 30N66W. The stationary front
continues to a 1015 mb low near 26N70W, and continues to the SE
Bahamas near 22N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of a line
extending from 23N73W to 25N65W to 28N62W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted from 28N-32N between 57W-66W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible elsewhere along the front.

A second cold front passes through the west coast of the country
of Western Sahara near 23N16W to 22N19W to 21N25W. A surface
trough continues from that point westward to 20N36W. Scattered
moderate convection is located north of 23N and east of 24W, and
this activity is moving SE toward the country of Western Sahara.
Long period NW swell in excess of 15 ft are affecting the entire
NE Atlantic north of 18N and east of 35W, including the Maderia
and Canary Islands.

Relatively quiet weather is over the central subtropical Atlantic
due to a 1022 mb surface high near 27N55W and a 1023 mb surface
high near 28N44W.

Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly
within 120 nm NW of the stationary front over the western
Atlantic through today before diminishing. The front will remain
nearly stationary through Tue. Then, a reinforcing cold front
will reach the north waters off the SE coast of the United
States on Wed, and will help the stationary front to transition
to a cold front moving eastward.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 11/18/2018 - 11:23

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 07N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from
06N17W to 05N22W to 05N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate to
locally strong convection is within 180 nm south and 270 nm north
of the boundaries between the west coast of Africa and 32W.
Between 32W-52W, scattered moderate to locally strong convection
extends from near the ITCZ to 180 nm north of the ITCZ. Broken
cloud cover and scattered showers cover the area from 10N-17N
between 50W-59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.
A surface trough is over the SW the Gulf of Mexico parallel to the
coast of Mexico from 25N97W to 22N97W to 18N95W. Scattered
rainshowers are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico, mainly
west of 93W. This includes areas within 90 nm of the coast of
Texas between Freeport and Brownsville.

A 1015 mb surface low is centered near 23N83W. A surface trough
passes from 29N86W to 26N84W to the low and into the NW Caribbean
near 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the
Florida Straits and western Florida Keys.

Moderate to fresh SE flow will set up across the western Gulf
today ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas
tonight. This front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico,
Mexico by Mon night. Then, a reinforcing cold front will move off
the Texas coast early Tue, merging with the stationary front, then
reaching from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico Tue
night. The western portion will stall Tue night and then drift
northwest through midweek. The eastern portion will continue SE,
reaching from S Florida to the central Gulf by late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1015 mb low centered just north of western Cuba near 23N83W
extends a trough to 20N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are near the Isle of Youth, generally between 81W-84W. Another
surface trough extends from 18N83W to southern Belize. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 16N-19N between 84W-88W.

The SW end of a stationary front goes through the SE Bahamas and
ends over eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are seen in the area
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba as well as in the Windward
Passage.

The monsoon trough near Panama is bringing scattered moderate
convection to the far SW Caribbean south of 10N between 76W-82W,
and over Panama.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible in the
northwest Caribbean, especially along the surface trough located
just north of Honduras. Strong high pressure building N of the
area is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast of
Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through
early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the forecast area near 32N58W and
continues to a 1016 mb low near 30N66W. The stationary front
continues to a 1015 mb low near 26N70W, and continues to the SE
Bahamas near 22N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of a line extending from
23N73W to 25N65W to 28N62W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted from 28N-32N between 57W-66W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible elsewhere along the front.

A second cold front passes through the west coast of the country
of Western Sahara near 23N16W to 22N19W to 21N25W. A surface
trough continues from that point westward to 20N36W. Scattered
moderate convection is located north of 23N and east of 24W, and
this activity is moving SE toward the country of Western Sahara.

Relatively quiet weather is over the central subtropical Atlantic
due to a 1022 mb surface high near 27N55W and a 1023 mb surface
high near 28N44W.

Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly
within 120 nm NW of the stationary front over the western Atlantic
through today before diminishing. The front will remain nearly
stationary through Tue. Then, a reinforcing cold front will reach
the north waters off the SE coast of the United States on Wed,
and will help the stationary front to transition to a cold front
moving eastward.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 11/18/2018 - 05:59

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to
04N33W, and to 04N51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from
24N98W along the coast of Mexico, to 21N96W, to 18N95W at the
northern edge of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Rainshowers are possible from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 25N northward.

Moderate to fresh SE wind flow will set up across the western
Gulf of Mexico today, ahead of the next cold front that is
forecast to reach the coast of Texas tonight. This front will
stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico by Monday night.
A reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas coast early on
Tuesday, merging with the stationary front, then reaching from
the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico on Tuesday night. The
western part will stall Tuesday night, and then drift northwest
through midweek. The eastern part will continue SE, reaching from
S Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southernmost point of a cold front reaches 23N74W in the SE
Bahamas. A surface trough, the remnants of an already-dissipated
front, is along 18N83W 17N86W, into southern Belize. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N to
19N southward from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 75W/76W in Colombia
and 83W/84W in the southern parts of Costa Rica. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow spans the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
A middle level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. 700 mb NE wind flow also is moving across the SW
corner of the area. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N
southward from 75W westward. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are in the eastern Pacific Ocean from 05N to 08N from
83W eastward.

A surface trough, the remnants of a dissipating stationary front,
is just north of the Gulf of Honduras along 18N83W into southern
Belize. Convergence along this trough will continue to support
scattered rainshowers, as well as fresh to strong winds through
this morning. Strong surface high pressure, building N of the
area, is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast of
Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through
early Tuesday, as the center of high pressure shifts eastward
across the NW Atlantic Ocean waters. Large swell in the Atlantic
Ocean waters will persist through Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front starts near 32N57W, to a 1016 mb low pressure
center that is near 30N66W. The stationary front continues to a
1015 mb low pressure center that is near 26N70W. A cold front
continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 23N74W in the
SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within
30 nm on either side of 26N66W 25N69W 24N70W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere within 300 nm to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N51W to 28N60W to 24N63W, and then within 90 nm to the
NW of the line that runs from 24N63W to 22N72W.

A second cold front passes through 32N08W in Morocco, to 25N15W,
21N23W, and to 21N30W. A surface trough continues from 21N30W
to 21N36W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the frontal
boundary.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front is forecast to
stall on Sunday morning, and then weaken gradually, before
dissipating on Sunday night.

Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly
within 180 nm NW of the stationary front through today, before
diminishing. The southern part of the front will become
stationary later today. The entire front S of 31N then will
meander in the region through Monday night. A strong area of low
pressure, and an upper level trough moving off the NE United
States, will help to transition this front to a cold front by
midweek.

Upper level diffluent wind flow is
supporting scattered moderate to strong rainshowers, that are
from 25N to 26N between 68W and 69W, just to the east of the 1013
mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm on
either side of the cold front.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 11/18/2018 - 00:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
04N32W, 04N38W, and to 04N50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 11N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from
24N97W along the coast of Mexico, to 18N95W at the northern edge
of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Rainshowers are
possible from 26N southward from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 25N northward.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters, through
most of the period, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic
wind flow. Moderate to locally fresh SE wind flow will set up
across the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, ahead of the next
cold front that is forecast to reach the coast of Texas on Sunday
night. The front will move slowly across the NW Gulf of Mexico
through Monday night, reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,
Mexico by early on Tuesday morning, and then move toward the
coast of Texas from Tuesday night into Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front continues from the 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 26N70W, to SE Cuba and 20N78W. A
surface trough also extends from the 1013 mb low pressure center
to 24N71W and 22N73W in the SE Bahamas. A surface trough, the
remnants of an already-dissipated front, is along 18N83W 17N86W,
to the Gulf of Honduras. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 18N southward to Honduras between 83W
and Mexico and Belize.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 76W in Colombia and
83W along the southern coast of Panama. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A middle
level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
700 mb NE wind flow also is moving across the SW corner of the
area. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward from
82W westward.

A surface trough, the remnants of a dissipating stationary front,
is just north of the Gulf of Honduras along 17N83W to the
southern coast of Belize near 16N88W. This elongated area of low
pressure continues to support scattered rainshowers with thunder,
as well as fresh to strong winds. The trough is forecast to
prevail in this region through Sun morning. Strong high pressure
building N of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds along
the coast of Colombia. These winds and associated seas will
prevail through early Tue as the center of high pressure shift
eastward across the NW Atlc waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W, to a 1013 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N70W. A dissipating stationary front
continues from the low pressure center, to SE Cuba and 20N78W.
A surface trough also extends from the 1013 mb low pressure center
to 24N71W and 22N73W in the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 25N to 26N between 68W and 69W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere within 240 nm to 300 nm to the NW of the
line that passes through 32N55W to 25N67W, and then within 120 nm
to the NW of the line that runs from 25N67W to 21N75W.

A second cold front passes through 32N along 09W/10W, near the
coast of Morocco, to 30N10W, 26N15W, and curving to 22N28W. The
cold front is dissipating from 22N28W to 22N36W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within
120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front is forecast to
stall on Sunday morning, and then weaken gradually, before
dissipating on Sunday night. Upper level diffluent wind flow is
supporting scattered moderate to strong rainshowers, that are
from 25N to 26N between 68W and 69W, just to the east of the 1013
mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm on
either side of the cold front.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 11/17/2018 - 17:44

000
AXNT20 KNHC 172343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
04N34W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and well south of the monsoon trough from
02N-10N between 09W-22W. Elsewhere, a scattered convection is
along the ITCZ from 01N-08N between 30W-42W. Another area of
scattered convection has developed north of the ITCZ from 03N-
09N between 46W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb surface high pressure centered over northern Alabama
near 34N87W extends over the northeastern and central Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered to broken low level stratocumulus clouds are
over portions of the central Gulf from 24N-30N between 85W-96W.

In the upper levels, high clouds are noted over southeast Texas
and the NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the eastern and
southern Gulf.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters producing a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh
return flow will set up across the western Gulf on Sun, ahead of
the next cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas on Sun
night. The front will move slowly across the NW Gulf through Mon
night, reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by early
Tue morning, and move back toward the coast of Texas Tue night
into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS of 21Z, a stationary front extends from the central Bahamas to
Camaguey Cuba to the Cayman Islands to 19N78W and transitions to
a dissipating front at that point to 16N87W. Latest scatterometer
and nearby observations show moderate to fresh winds from 21N84W
to near the coast of Honduras 16N84W. In the upper levels, upper
level diffluence is noted over the western Caribbean. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-18N
between 84W-88W.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers extend out to 90 nm from
the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama from 09N-12N
between 82W-84W. This activity is influenced by the East Pacific
monsoon trough. East of 77W, the Caribbean is relatively quiet,
with the exception of scattered showers over Cuba and Hispaniola.

The front is forecast to dissipate on Sun. Expect fresh to strong
winds and building seas across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Tue, with seas of 10 or 11 ft near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area over the W Atlantic from
30N66W to 26N71W, where it becomes stationary with a 1013 mb low
pressure. The stationary front continues to the central Bahamas
and into the NW Caribbean Sea. A 1013 mb surface low is centered
just SE of the front near 25N72W at 2100 UTC, and a surface
trough extends south-southwestward from the low to 20N74W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends outward
to 180 nm E-NE of the surface low. Northeast of this convection,
scattered moderate convection associated with the front extends
about 60 nm NW of the front and 100 nm SE of the front north of
30N east of 60W. A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
29N45W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 30N12W to 22N28W
and dissipating at that point to 22N36W. Scattered showers are
along and out to 60 nm southeast of the front.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to a 1013 mb low pres located
near 25.5N71.5W then continues as stationary front across the SE
Bahamas to eastern Cuba. The front combined with the weak low is
generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms within
about 90 nm E of front/low, and fresh to strong winds mainly N of
24N. Expect the front to become stationary from 31N64W to the SE
Bahamas to E Cuba tonight. Then, the front will gradually
dissipate through Sun night.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 11/17/2018 - 11:42

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along and well south of the monsoon
trough from 00N-09N between 06W-21W. Elsewhere, a band of
scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 06N-11N
between 22W-37W. A band of scattered moderate convection has
developed south of the ITCZ from 02N-03N between 36W-42W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 11N-20N between
15W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge of high pressure extends over the northeastern
and central Gulf of Mexico from a 1025 mb surface high over NW
Georgia. Scattered to broken low level stratocumulus clouds are
over portions of the central Gulf from 23N-28N between 84W-91W.
Brownsville Texas Doppler radar indicates an area of isolated
showers just off the coast of northern Mexico from 24N-26N west
of 96W.

In the upper levels, high clouds are noted over southeast Texas
and the NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the eastern and
southern Gulf.

Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected to continue
across most of the Gulf this weekend, with high pressure over the
southeastern United States. A cold front is forecast to reach the
coast of Texas Sun night, then move slowly across the NW Gulf
through Mon night, and move back toward the coast of Texas by Tue
night into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the central Bahamas to Camaguey
Cuba to the Cayman Islands to 17N86W. A surface trough is just off
the coast of Honduras from 16N87W to 16.5N85W to 16N84W. 20 kt
N-NE winds cover the NW Caribbean N of the front, south of 21N and
west of 82W. A recent ASCAT pass shows winds of 25 kt south of the
front to the coast of Honduras near the location of the trough.
Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
noted within 60 nm of a line from 19N82W to 16.5N87W.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers extend out to 90 nm from
the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama from 08N-15N
between 80W-84W. The southern portion of this is influenced by the
East Pacific monsoon trough, and the rest appears to be diurnal in
nature. East of 79W, the Caribbean is relatively quiet, with the
exception of scattered showers from 15N-18N between 62W-66W.

Expect the surface front in the NW Caribbean to retreat back
slightly to the NW while gradually dissipating by Sun. Trade winds
will increase along with building seas across the eastern and
central Caribbean today through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas of up to 10 ft are expected near the coast of
Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area over the W Atlantic from
32N64.5W to 28N70W to 23N75W, where it becomes stationary. The
stationary front continues to Camaguey Cuba and into the NW
Caribbean Sea. A 1012 mb surface low is centered just SE of the
front near 25.5N72W at 1500 UTC, and a surface trough extends
south-southwestward from the low to 21N74W. The latest ASCAT data
shows winds of 25-30 kt on the south and east side of the low
extending out to about 120 nm. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection extends outward to 120 nm NE of the surface low
and 90 nm SE of the low. This convection is located from
24.5N-27.5N between 69.5W-72W. Northeast of this convection,
scattered moderate convection associated with the front extends
about 60 nm NW of the front and 120 nm SE of the front north of
27N east of 71W. A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
31N44W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N14W to 28N16W
to 25N25W to 24N32W, dissipating to 24N40W. Scattered showers are
from 22N-31N, east of 26W, including over portions of Morocco and
Western Sahara

Expect the W Atlantic front to become stationary from 31N64W to
the SE Bahamas to E Cuba tonight. The surface low is expected to
merge with the front tonight. The front will then gradually
dissipate through Sun night.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat, 11/17/2018 - 05:24

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171124
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
03N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N-
07N between 08W-19W. Elsewhere, a band of scattered moderate
convection is north of the ITCZ from 06N-10N between 22W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high is centered over SE Louisiana near 30N90W.
Scattered to broken low level stratocumulus clouds are over most
of the Gulf of Mexico S of 28N. The far N Gulf has mostly fair
weather. 10-15 kt NE to E winds are noted over the Gulf. Some cold
air advection remains over the Gulf but it has already begun to
moderate. Overnight radiational cooling is also a factor over the
N Gulf States.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with
axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf.

Expect surface ridging to prevail over the Gulf waters through
Mon. The next cold front to reach the NW Gulf on Sun night and
be rather weak. It will then persist through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over the NW
Caribbean from central Cuba at 22N77W to 18N84W. A surface trough
is also over the Gulf of Honduras from 16N87W to 16N83W. 20 kt N
winds are noted W of front. Scattered moderate convection is from
16N-19N between 82W-87W.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers are noted south of 10N due
to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

In the upper levels, an upper level jetstream extends from the
Gulf of Honduras to central Cuba, basically over the surface
front.

Expect the surface front to retreat back while gradually
dissipating on Sun. Trade winds will increase across the eastern
and central Caribbean today. Marine guidance indicates fresh to
strong winds and building seas to 10 ft near the coast of
Colombia. These marine conditions will persist through Tue
morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N65W to central Cuba
near 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of
the front. 15-20 kt N winds are W of front. A 1024 mb high is
over the central Atlantic near 33N44W. A cold front is over the E
Atlantic from 32N17W to 25N30W, dissipating to 24N40W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front.

Expect the W Atlantic front to stall this morning from 32N64W to
the southern Bahamas. The front will then gradually dissipate
through Sun night. A trough along 74W will drift westward over the
weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere through Mon night.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 11/16/2018 - 23:36

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 02N-
06N between 10W-16W. Elsewhere, a band of scattered showers north
of the ITCZ extends from 05N-10N between 22W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered over Alabama near 33N86W. Broken low
level stratocumulus clouds are over most of the Gulf of Mexico S
of 28N. The far N Gulf has mostly fair weather. 10-15 kt NE to E
winds are noted over the Gulf. Some cold air advection remains
over the Gulf but it has already begun to moderate. Radiational
cooling tonight will be a factor over the N Gulf States.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with
axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf.

Expect surface ridging to prevail over the Gulf waters through
Mon. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon and will be
rather weak. It will then persist through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over the NW
Caribbean from central Cuba at 22N78W to NE Honduras at 16N85W.
20 kt N winds are noted W of front. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm W of front.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers are noted south of 10N due
to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

In the upper levels, an upper level jetstream extends from the
Gulf of Honduras to central Cuba, basically over the surface
front.

Expect the surface front to transition to a surface trough later
tonight. Shower activity in this region will prevail through Sat
night as trough moves westward to the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and associated seas behind the front will
subside tonight. Strong and broad high pressure building north of
the area will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of
Colombia and along the coast of Venezuela tonight and continuing
through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N67W to central Cuba
near 22N78W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
15-20 kt N winds are W of front. A 1028 mb high is over the
central Atlantic near 32N49W. A cold front is over the e Atlantic
from 32N20W to 27N30W to 25N40W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the front.

Expect the W Atlantic front to stall Sat morning from 32N66W to
the central Bahamas. The stationary front will weaken through Sun
when it is forecast to dissipate. A remnant surface trough will
then move across the NW waters through Mon night when the next
cold front will enter the region. The new front will move across
the northern waters through Wed.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

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