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National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
Updated: 1 hour 14 sec ago

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

4 hours 40 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 mb low along the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula
near Chetumal at 19.5N 88.0W is drifting slowly northward over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula. The low is producing widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity over the far northwest Caribbean west of
83W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Please see high seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service for information on gale
warnings associated with this system. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall
is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat
of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from
Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For
more information on these threats, please see products issued by
your local weather office. The chance for tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours is high. The chance for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days is high.

A gale warning is in effect in the meanwhile for the Gulf of
Mexico starting 1200 UTC Sat May 26 within 90 nm E semicircle of
1006 mb low centered near 22.5N87W with 30 to 35 kt winds, and
seas 8 to 11 ft.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving eastward at 10 to 15 kt through French
Guiana with the axis extending northward to 12N. The wave is in a
moderate moist environment that is supporting isolated showers
within 150 nm either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea, Africa near
11N14W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
00N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 02N to 08N between
10W and 20W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm either
side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from low pressure along the coast of
the Yucatan peninsula northward to the 26N87W in the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm east of
the trough, and over the Straits of Florida, portions of Florida,
and the N Gulf coast E of Texas. Mostly fair weather is over the
W Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the western half of the basin
with seas in the range of 2 to 3 ft.

The low over the Yucatan peninsula is expected to develop into a
a tropical cyclone as it moves slowly northward through Mon. Gale
conditions and seas around 12 ft are now expected starting Sat in
the SE Gulf, spreading northward and reaching the N central Gulf
through Mon. Winds and seas will diminish on Tue. Please read the
Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh tradewinds are over the E Caribbean with mostly
fair weather. Aside from the showers and thunderstorms mentioned
above related to the low pressure over Mexico, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also active from the central coast of
Colombia to near San Andres Island in the southwest Caribbean. A
few trade wind showers are noted elsewhere.

The surface low over the Yucatan peninsula will drift northward
into the Gulf of Mexico today. Fresh to locally strong SE winds
and peak seas near 8 ft are expected the NW Caribbean through Sat
as this low potentially develops into a tropical cyclone. High
pressure in the central Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds in the Caribbean through Sat with strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia before weakening somewhat on Sun through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the northern Bahamas. The remainder of
the Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge
centered by a 1026 mb high near 32N36W. This high is supporting
moderate winds in the Bahamas Bank and Atlantic passages to the
Caribbean.

Over the W Atlantic moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected S
of 27N through Monday. SE to S winds will increase to fresh to
locally strong W of 77W Sat night through Sun night as developing
low pres in the Gulf of Mexico tightens the pressure gradient.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

10 hours 59 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 250531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 mb low near 20N88W is drifting slowly northward over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula. The low is producing widespread, but
disorganized, shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development,
and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to
form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf of
Mexico. Please see high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service for information on gale warnings associated with
this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if
necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba
and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early
next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office.
The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours is high. The chance for tropical cyclone formation during
the next 5 days is high.

A gale warning has been issued in the meanwhile for the Gulf of
Mexico starting 1200 UTC Sat May 26 within 100 nm E semicircle of
1006 mb low centered near 22.5N87W with 30 to 35 kt winds, and
seas 9 to 12 ft.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of South America with axis
extending from 11N50W to 00N50W, moving west at 10-15 knots. The
wave is in a moderate moist environment that is supporting
isolated showers within 150 nm either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea, Africa near
10N14W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
00N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 02N-08N between
10W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm either
side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends N from the Yucatan Peninsula Low near
20N88W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N87W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the trough. In addition, radar
imagery shows scattered showers over the Straits of Florida,
portions of Florida, and the N Gulf coast E of Texas. Mostly fair
weather is over the W Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the
western half of the basin with seas in the range of 2 to 3 ft.

The low over the Yucatan peninsula is expected to develop into a
a tropical cyclone as it moves slowly northward through Mon. Gale
conditions and seas around 12 ft are now expected starting Sat in
the SE Gulf, spreading northward and reaching the N central Gulf
through Mon. Winds and seas will diminish on Tue. Please read the
Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt tradewinds are over the E Caribbean with mostly fair
weather. The W Caribbean W of 80W has very moist conditions. The
NW Caribbean has scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
from 15N-21N between 80W-89W. Scattered moderate convection is
inland over Central America from S Guatemala to Panama. Similar
convection is over N Colombia.

The surface low over the Yucatan peninsula will drift northward
into the Gulf of Mexico Fri. Fresh to locally strong SE winds and
peak seas near 8 ft are expected the NW Caribbean Fri and Sat as
this low potentially develops into a tropical cyclone. High
pressure in the central Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds in the Caribbean through Sat with strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia before weakening somewhat on Sun through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. The remainder of the
Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
by a 1029 mb high near 32N36W. This high is supporting moderate
winds in the Bahamas Bank and Atlantic passages to the Caribbean.

Over the W Atlantic moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected S
of 27N through Monday. SE to S winds will increase to fresh to
locally strong W of 77W Sat night through Sun night as developing
low pres in the Gulf of Mexico tightens the pressure gradient.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 20:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 250101 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane
Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

Corrected for 48 hour tropical cyclone formation probability.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad, stationary 1009 mb surface low pressure system is
centered over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula near 19.5N88W,
gradually becoming better defined. Scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms along with strong gusty winds are confined
primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea N of 18N W of 82W, including the Yucatan Channel and the
Straits of Florida. Isolated showers and tstms associated with
this system are already in the SE Gulf of Mexico S of 25N and
also extend to the Gulf of Honduras. Gradual development of this
system is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts
northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development through
early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is
likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast
across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern
Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip
currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from
Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day weekend. The
chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours
is high. The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the
next 5 days is high.

A gale warning has been issued in the meanwhile starting 1800 UTC
Sat May 26 for the Gulf of Mexico within an area bounded 24N85W
to 23N84W to 23N85W to 24N86W to 24N85W...including the Straits
of Florida...SE to S winds 30 to 35 KT, with seas 9 to 12 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 50W with axis extending from 12N49W to
02S50W, moving west at 15 knots. The wave is in a moderate moist
environment that is supporting isolated showers within 150 nm
either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal, Africa near
07N13W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
00N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 03N-07N between
07W-18W. Scattered moderate showers are within 180 nm either
side of the remainder of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from the eastern CONUS and the SW N Atlc
into the northern and portions of the SE Gulf with a weakness in
that ridge analyzed as a surface trough from Pensacola, Florida
to the coast of SE Louisiana to SE Texas offshore waters near
28N94W.
Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the trough in
the NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the western half of
the basin with seas in the range of 2 to 3 ft. On the eastern
Gulf, however, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and
a broad area of low pressure centered in the SE Yucatan
Peninsula is supporting E to SE moderate to locally fresh winds
being the strongest winds in the SE basin. The area of low
pressure is generating showers and tstms in the region of
strongest winds. Gradual development of this system is expected
during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the
Yucatan Peninsula. Strong winds and building seas are expected
east of this system. See special features section for further
details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for hazards
associated with a tropical low centered in the SE Yucatan
Peninsula. Very moist conditions across the western half of the
Caribbean along with the east Pacific monsoon trough extending
across Panama to northern Colombia support scattered heavy
showers and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Nicaragua and 90
nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, surface
ridging extending from the central Atlc into the northern and
eastern Caribbean continue to support moderate to fresh winds in
the central and eastern basin and fresh to strong NE to E winds
within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh SE winds and
building seas are expected the NW Caribbean N of 21N W of 86W
this weekend associated with the developing low in the Yucatan
Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to isolated showers are over the Florida Straits and
the northern and central Bahamas associated with a developing
tropical low in the SE Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the
Atlc is under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered SW
of the Azores Islands near 32N40W by a 1028 mb high. This high
is supporting moderate winds in the Bahamas Bank and Atlc
passages to the Caribbean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 19:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 250001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad, stationary 1009 mb surface low pressure system is centered
over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula near 19.5N88W, gradually
becoming better defined. Scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms along with strong gusty winds are confined
primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea N of 18N W of 82W, including the Yucatan Channel and the
Straits of Florida. Isolated showers and tstms associated with
this system are already in the SE Gulf of Mexico S of 25N and also
extend to the Gulf of Honduras. Gradual development of this
system is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts
northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development through
early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is
likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast
across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf
Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents
will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward
to Louisiana over Memorial Day weekend. The chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is medium. The chance
for tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days is high.

A gale warning has been issued in the meanwhile starting 1800 UTC
Sat May 26 for the Gulf of Mexico within an area bounded 24N85W
to 23N84W to 23N85W to 24N86W to 24N85W...including the Straits of
Florida...SE to S winds 30 to 35 KT, with seas 9 to 12 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 50W with axis extending from 12N49W to
02S50W, moving west at 15 knots. The wave is in a moderate moist
environment that is supporting isolated showers within 150 nm
either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal, Africa near
07N13W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
00N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is along the coast of W Africa from 03N-07N between 07W-18W.
Scattered moderate showers are within 180 nm either side of the
remainder of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from the eastern CONUS and the SW N Atlc
into the northern and portions of the SE Gulf with a weakness in
that ridge analyzed as a surface trough from Pensacola, Florida to
the coast of SE Louisiana to SE Texas offshore waters near 28N94W.
Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the trough in the
NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the western half of the
basin with seas in the range of 2 to 3 ft. On the eastern Gulf,
however, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and a
broad area of low pressure centered in the SE Yucatan Peninsula is
supporting E to SE moderate to locally fresh winds being the
strongest winds in the SE basin. The area of low pressure is
generating showers and tstms in the region of strongest winds.
Gradual development of this system is expected during the next
couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong
winds and building seas are expected east of this system. See
special features section for further details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for hazards
associated with a tropical low centered in the SE Yucatan
Peninsula. Very moist conditions across the western half of the
Caribbean along with the east Pacific monsoon trough extending
across Panama to northern Colombia support scattered heavy showers
and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Nicaragua and 90 nm of the
coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, surface ridging
extending from the central Atlc into the northern and eastern
Caribbean continue to support moderate to fresh winds in the
central and eastern basin and fresh to strong NE to E winds
within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh SE winds and
building seas are expected the NW Caribbean N of 21N W of 86W this
weekend associated with the developing low in the Yucatan
Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to isolated showers are over the Florida Straits and the
northern and central Bahamas associated with a developing tropical
low in the SE Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the Atlc is
under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered SW of the
Azores Islands near 32N40W by a 1028 mb high. This high is
supporting moderate winds in the Bahamas Bank and Atlc passages to
the Caribbean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 13:06

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad, stationary 1009 mb surface low pressure system is centered
over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W, gradually
becoming better defined. Scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms along with strong gusty winds are confined
primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea N of 18N W of 82W, including the Yucatan Channel and the
Straits of Florida. Isolated showers and tstms associated with
this system are already in the SE Gulf of Mexico S of 25N and also
extend to the Gulf of Honduras. Gradual development of this
system is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts
northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development through
early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is
likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast
across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf
Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents
will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward
to Louisiana over Memorial Day weekend. The chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is medium. The chance
for tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is within 780 nm SE of the Lesser Antilles with
axis extending from 12N48W to 02S49W, moving west at 15 to 20
knots. The wave is in a moderate moist environment that is
supporting isolated showers within 150 nm either side of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal, Africa near
07N13W and continues to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
00N35W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers are
in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 03W-
19W. Scattered moderate showers are within 175 nm either side of
the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from the eastern CONUS and the SW N Atlc
into the northern and portions of the SE Gulf with a weakness in
that ridge analyzed as a surface trough from Pensacola, Florida to
the coast of SE Louisiana to SE Texas offshore waters near 28N94W.
Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the trough in the
NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the western half of the
basin with seas in the range of 2 to 3 ft. On the eastern Gulf,
however, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and a
broad area of low pressure centered in the SE Yucatan Peninsula is
supporting E to SE moderate to locally fresh winds being the
strongest winds in the SE basin. The area of low pressure is
generating showers and tstms in the region of strongest winds.
Gradual development of this system is expected during the next
couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong
winds and building seas are expected east of this system. See
special features section for further details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for hazards
associated with a tropical low centered in the SE Yucatan
Peninsula. Very moist conditions across the western half of the
Caribbean along with the east Pacific monsoon trough extending
across Panama to northern Colombia support scattered heavy showers
and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Nicaragua and 90 nm of the
coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, surface ridging
extending from the central Atlc into the northern and eastern
Caribbean continue to support moderate to fresh winds in the
central and eastern basin and fresh to strong NE to E winds
within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh SE winds and
building seas are expected the NW Caribbean N of 21N W of 86W this
weekend associated with the developing low in the Yucatan
Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to isolated showers are over the Florida Straits and the
northern and central Bahamas associated with a developing tropical
low in the SE Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the Atlc is
under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered SW of the
Azores Islands by a 1029 mb high. This high is supporting moderate
winds in the Bahamas Bank and Atlc passages to the Caribbean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 05/24/2018 - 07:07

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad, stationary surface low pressure system centered over
the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better
defined.
Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty
winds, are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system
is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts
northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development through
early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is
likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the
threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf
coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day
weekend. The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours is medium. The chance for tropical cyclone
formation during the next 5 days is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 47W from 0N to 10N moving westward at
10 to 15 knots. This wave is associated with a sharp 700 mb
trough. Scattered showers are within 290 nm west of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 04N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N20W to 00N33W to 01N46W. The ITCZ continues W
of the tropical wave from 01N48W to the coast of Brazil near
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 190 nm N of the
ITCZ between 20W-30W, within 290 nm S of the ITCZ W of 28W and
from 01N-07N between 04W-20W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic 1027 mb high centered
near 32N40W to the NE Gulf of Mexico. 10-15 knot E to SE winds
are over the Gulf. An upper level trough is over the Gulf of
Mexico with axis along 90W. Upper level moisture is over the
Gulf, except over the SW Gulf where strong subsidence is noted.
Isolated moderate convection is over the central Gulf from 24N-
27N between 85W-91W. More isolated moderate convection is over
the NW Gulf from 25N-31N between 91W-95W.

A broad surface low over the Yucatan peninsula is expected to
intensify as it moves slowly northward toward southern Louisiana
through Sun. Strong winds and building seas are expected east of
the low center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above. A 1010 mb low is
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W drifting NW.
Scattered moderate convection is over most of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW
Caribbean Sea from 18N-22N between 82W-88W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is inland over Central America from
Quatemala to Panama. Elsewhere, 15-20 knot tradewinds are over
the central and E Caribbean.

An upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean N of 15N and W of
80W. An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean.
Upper level moisture is over the Caribbean, except over the
Leeward and Windward Islands where strong subsidence is noted.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
locally strong trade winds in the Caribbean into Sat, with the
strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. A broad surface low
over the Yucatan peninsula will drift northward into the Gulf of
Mexico through Fri. Fresh SE winds and building seas are
expected the NW Caribbean Fri and Sat as the low develops.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. A 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 32N39W producing fair
weather.

A large upper level low is centered NE of the Leeward Islands
near 25N52W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the low.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected over the W Atlantic
south of 27N through Sat. An area of low pressure developing in
the Gulf of Mexico will increase SE winds west of 77W to include
the N Bahamas this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 23:55

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240454
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward
near the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
over the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western
Cuba and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over
much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend.
For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products
issued by your local weather office. The chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is low. The chance for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days, on the other
hand, is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 46W S of 10N moving westward at 10 to 15
knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N28W
to 01N45W. The ITCZ continues W of the tropical wave from 01N47W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 00N-06N between 10W-27W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 05S-03N between 27W-32W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic 1029 mb high centered
near 32N39W to the NE Gulf of Mexico. 10-15 knot E to SE winds
are over the Gulf. An upper level trough is over the Gulf of
Mexico with axis along 90W. Upper level moisture is over the Gulf,
except over the SW Gulf where strong subsidence is noted.
Isolated moderate convection is over the central Gulf from 24N-27N
between 85W-91W. More isolated moderate convection is over the NW
Gulf from 25N-31N between 91W-95W.

A broad surface low over the Yucatan peninsula is
expected to intensify as it moves slowly northward toward
southern Louisiana through Sun. Strong winds and building seas
are expected east of the low center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above. A 1010 mb low is
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W drifting NW.
Scattered moderate convection is over most of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean
Sea from 18N-22N between 82W-88W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is inland over Central America from Quatemala to
Panama. Elsewhere, 15-20 knot tradewinds are over the central and
E Caribbean.

An upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean N of 15N and W of
80W. An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean.
Upper level moisture is over the Caribbean, except over the
Leeward and Windward Islands where strong subsidence is noted.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to locally strong trade winds in the Caribbean into Sat,
with the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. A broad
surface low over the Yucatan peninsula will drift northward into
the Gulf of Mexico through Fri. Fresh SE winds and building seas
are expected the NW Caribbean Fri and Sat as the low develops.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. A 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 32N39W producing fair
weather.

A large upper level low is centered NE of the Leeward Islands
near 25N52W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the low.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected over the W Atlantic
south of 27N through Sat. An area of low pressure developing in
the Gulf of Mexico will increase SE winds west of 77W to include
the N Bahamas this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 19:09

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
809 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward
near the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
over the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western
Cuba and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over
much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend.
For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products
issued by your local weather office. The chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is low. The chance for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days, on the other
hand, is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 45W S of 10N moving westward at 10 to 15
knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 00N28W
to 01N44W. The ITCZ continues W of the tropical wave from 01N46W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 01N-06N between 08W-25W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 05S-04N between 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean high centered near
32N42W to the NE Gulf of Mexico. 10-15 knot E to SE winds are over
the Gulf. An upper level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with
axis along 90W. Upper level moisture is over the Gulf except over
the SW Gulf where strong subidence is noted. Isolated moderate
convection is over the central Gulf from 24N-27N between 85W-91W.
More isolated moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from 25N-31N
berween 91W-95W.

The surface ridge is forecast to shift eastward through early
Thursday. Broad surface low pressure, that is just to the north of
Belize, is expected to develop and move to the northern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning. The low pressure center
will then move northward, slowly, to the eastern Gulf of Mexico
this weekend. Expect near gale-force winds and associated seas to
the east of the low pressure center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above. Scattered moderate
convection is over the NW Caribbean Sea from 18N-22N between
82W-88W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over Central
America from the Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. Elsewhere, 15-20
knot tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean.

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 23N55W
cyclonic circulation center, through 17N58W, to the coast of
Venezuela near 11N63W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery from 11N to 20N between 52W and
70W, in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite
imagery.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the Bahamas. A 1028 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 32N42W producing fair
weather.

An upper level trough extends from a 23N55W cyclonic circulation
center, through 17N58W, to the coast of Venezuela near 11N63W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 11N to 20N between 52W and 70W, in the Caribbean Sea
and in the Atlantic Ocean.

Expect moderate to fresh trade winds south of 27N this week, with
winds pulsing to strong N of Hispaniola at night on Wednesday and
on Thursday. The winds will diminish slightly on Friday, as the
ridge shifts eastward. A developing area of low pressure in the
Gulf of Mexico for this weekend will increase SE winds west of 77W
from Friday through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 12:14

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Broad cyclonic wind flow spans the area from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the surface
into the upper levels of the atmosphere. A surface trough is in
the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the NE corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula to NW Honduras. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 17N to 22N between 84W and
88W, in the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are 13N to 16N between 82W and 84W,
in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Nicaragua and
Honduras. other rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from Jamaica
westward in the Caribbean Sea, and from 20N northward from 70W
westward in the Atlantic Ocean. Little development into a tropical
cyclone is expected during the next couple of days, due to strong
upper level winds and proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development into a tropical cyclone, after the next 48 hours or
so. It is possible that a subtropical depression or a tropical
depression may form this weekend in the eastern or central Gulf of
Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the western
sections of Cuba and the Cayman Islands during the next few days,
and in much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast during the
weekend. Please stay tuned to forecasts that are issued by your
local weather office for more details. The chance for formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is low.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 41W/43W, from 10N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb
trough. isolated moderate rainshowers are
from the Equator to 06N between 40W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 04N20W,
to the Equator along 29W, to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N
southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

One upper level trough is in place already in the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. That feature is the topic of discussion for
the SPECIAL FEATURES section. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 27N96W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers from 25N to 30N between 90W and 97W. the precipitation
is reaching the upper Texas Gulf coast.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 32N48W high
pressure center into the NE Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast
to shift eastward through early Thursday. Broad surface low
pressure, that is just to the north of Belize, is expected to
develop more and more, off the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Friday morning. The low pressure center will move
northward, slowly, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during this
weekend. Expect near gale-force winds and associated seas to the
east of the low pressure center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 23N55W
cyclonic circulation center, through 17N58W, to the coast of
Venezuela near 11N63W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery from 11N to 20N between 52W and
70W, in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

A surface ridge extends into the northern Caribbean Sea, from a
32N48W Atlantic Ocean 1028 mb high pressure center. Expect fresh
to strong trade winds in the central and eastern sections through
Thursday morning, with the strongest winds being along the coast
of Colombia. Broad surface low pressure, that is just north of
Belize, will drift northward into the Gulf of Mexico through
Friday morning. Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas are
forecast for the NW Caribbean Sea, from Thursday night through
Saturday morning, as the area of low pressure develops more and
more in the Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from a 23N55W cyclonic circulation
center, through 17N58W, to the coast of Venezuela near 11N63W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 11N to 20N between 52W and 70W, in the Caribbean Sea
and in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 18N to 30N between 46W and 57W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center, that
is near 32N48W, beyond Florida. Expect moderate to fresh trade
winds south of 27N this week, with winds pulsing to strong N of
Hispaniola at night on Wednesday and on Thursday. The winds will
diminish slightly on Friday, as the ridge shifts eastward. A
developing area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico for this
weekend will increase SE winds west of 77W from Friday through
Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 07:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure is near the coast of northeastern
Belize. A large area of cloudiness and rainshowers covers the area
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, and into Straits
of Florida. Little development is expected during the next couple
of days, due to strong upper level winds and proximity to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development after the next 48 hours or
so. It is possible that a subtropical or tropical depression
may form this weekend in the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the western sections of
Cuba and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and in
much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend.
Please stay tuned to forecasts that are issued by your local
weather office for more details. The chance for formation into
a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is low.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 41W/43W, from 10N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb
trough. rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of
the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near
11N15W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to
02N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of the tropical wave near 02N43W and
reaches the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 00N-04N between 02W-22W. Similar convection is
from 05S-03N between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the coast of Brazil from 02S-01N
between 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 kt E to SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico.
Presently scattered showers are over portions of the Florida
Peninsula, the Straits of Florida, and W Cuba.

An upper level trough is in place over the far E Gulf of Mexico
and Florida. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis, over
the W Atlantic. A second upper level trough has entered the NW
Gulf. An upper level ridge is over the central Gulf in between the
two troughs.

An Atlantic surface ridge extending into the northern Gulf of
Mexico will shift eastward through Fri. An area of low pressure
is expected to develop off the northern coast of Yucatan on Fri.
The tropical low will move slowly northward in the eastern Gulf
this weekend, with highest winds and seas east of the low.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection is inland over Central America from
the Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. An area of scattered moderate
convection is S of Cuba from 16N-22N between 77W-83W.

An upper level ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W with
considerable upper level moisture. An upper level trough is over
the E Caribbean with strong subsidence E of 70W and N of 12N.

A surface ridge north of the area will maintain fresh trade
winds in the central Caribbean through Thu, with strong winds
expected along the northern coast of Colombia. A broad low near
Belize will drift northward into the Gulf of Mexico through Fri.
Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas are possible in the NW
Caribbean Thu night and Fri as the low develops.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the
Bahamas and Florida. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 31N50W producing fair weather.

An E-to-W oriented ridge along 30N will support moderate to fresh
trade winds south of 22N this week, with winds pulsing to strong
N of Hispaniola at night. Winds and seas will diminish slightly
Fri as the ridge shifts east. An area of low pressure in the
Gulf of Mexico will increase SE winds west of 77W this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 05/23/2018 - 00:28

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 18N87W. A surface trough
extends from the NE Yucatan Peninsula near 22N87W to the low
center to the N coast of Honduras near 16N86W. This system just
east of Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and
into the Florida peninsula. Little development is expected during
the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and
proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. However, gradual
subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week
while the system moves slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of
Florida during the next several days. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. There is a very low possibility of tropical storm
formation over the next 24 hours. There is a medium chance for
tropical formation within 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 41W, S of 10N, moving W at 10 to 15
knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near
11N15W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to
02N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of the tropical wave near 02N43W and
reaches the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 00N-04N between 02W-22W. Similar convection is
from 05S-03N between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the coast of Brazil from 02S-01N
between 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 kt E to SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico.
Presently scattered showers are over portions of the Florida
Peninsula, the Straits of Florida, and W Cuba.

An upper level trough is in place over the far E Gulf of Mexico
and Florida. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis, over
the W Atlantic. A second upper level trough has entered the NW
Gulf. An upper level ridge is over the central Gulf in between the
two troughs.

An Atlantic surface ridge extending into the northern Gulf of
Mexico will shift eastward through Fri. An area of low pressure
is expected to develop off the northern coast of Yucatan on Fri.
The tropical low will move slowly northward in the eastern Gulf
this weekend, with highest winds and seas east of the low.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection is inland over Central America from
the Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. An area of scattered moderate
convection is S of Cuba from 16N-22N between 77W-83W.

An upper level ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W with
considerable upper level moisture. An upper level trough is over
the E Caribbean with strong subsidence E of 70W and N of 12N.

A surface ridge north of the area will maintain fresh trade
winds in the central Caribbean through Thu, with strong winds
expected along the northern coast of Colombia. A broad low near
Belize will drift northward into the Gulf of Mexico through Fri.
Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas are possible in the NW
Caribbean Thu night and Fri as the low develops.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the
Bahamas and Florida. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 31N50W producing fair weather.

An E-to-W oriented ridge along 30N will support moderate to fresh
trade winds south of 22N this week, with winds pulsing to strong
N of Hispaniola at night. Winds and seas will diminish slightly
Fri as the ridge shifts east. An area of low pressure in the
Gulf of Mexico will increase SE winds west of 77W this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 05/22/2018 - 19:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 17N87W. A surface trough is
along 87W, through the 1009 mb low center, from southern Honduras
to the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The system just east of
Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida peninsula. Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity
to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. However, gradual subtropical
or tropical development is possible late this week while the
system moves slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of Florida
during the next several days. For more information on the heavy
rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. There is a very low possibility of tropical storm
formation over the next 24 hours. There is a medium chance for
tropical formation within 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 39W, S of 11N, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. No significant
precipitation accompanies this tropical wave.

A weak tropical wave is along 66W from 17N southward in the
eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant
precipitation accompanies this tropical wave. It is likely that
the wave will become diffuse late tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 03N26W to
01N36W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-03N between
04W-36W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in place over the far E Gulf of Mexico
and Florida. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis, over
the W Atlantic. A second upper level trough has entered the NW
Gulf. An upper level ridge is over the central Gulf in between the
two troughs.

A surface ridge in the northern Gulf coast will shift eastward
through mid week. A developing low pressure center is forecast
to emerge off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday
night. The low pressure center will move N slowly. It will
approach the N central Gulf coast by Saturday evening, bringing
fresh to strong winds and building seas to the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection is inland over Central America from
the Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. An area of scattered moderate
convection is S of Cuba from 15N-22N between 78W-83W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Hispaniola
eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is moving around a trough, that
passes through the Atlantic Ocean, toward the coast of Venezuela.
Strong subidence is over the E Caribbean.

A surface ridge along 30N will maintain fresh to locally strong
trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and strong winds and sea
heights to 9 feet will affect the NW coast of Colombia through
Friday. The low pressure center, that is just to the east of
Belize, will move N into the Gulf of Mexico late on Thursday.
Fresh to strong winds will develop between the trough and the
Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is to the south of Cuba,
on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the
Bahamas and Florida. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 31N49W producing fair weather.

An E-to-W oriented ridge along 30N will support gentle to
moderate SE winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh trade winds
south of 22N into the middle of the week. The wind speeds will
pulse to strong N of Hispaniola mainly at night. The winds and
sea heights will diminish slightly by Friday, as the ridge shifts
eastward. SE winds may increase near Cay Sal Bank and the Florida
Straits starting on Friday, as the NW Caribbean Sea low pressure
center moves northward through the Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 05/22/2018 - 12:38

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 17N87W. A surface trough is
along 86W/88W, through the 1009 mb low center, from southern
Honduras to the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow spans the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the NW
Caribbean Sea, connected to the trough that has been in place
during the last week. Deep layer tropical moisture continues to
stream northward on the eastern edge of the upper trough.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are in the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward between Jamaica and
86W. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from
90W eastward. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 13N southward from 70W westward. Strong upper level
winds and dry air aloft are expected to limit organization during
the next few days. Some gradual subtropical or tropical
development is possible late this week, while the system moves
slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, and much of Florida during the next several days. Please
refer to forecasts and charts that are issued by your local
weather office for more information on the heavy rain threat. The
chance for tropical storm formation during the next 48 hours is
low.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 38W/39W, S of 11N, moving W 10 to 15
knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. No
significant precipitation accompanies this tropical wave.

A weak tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 17N southward in the
eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant
precipitation accompanies this tropical wave. It is likely that
the wave will become diffuse late today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 03N26W to
01N36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers 04N southward from 21W eastward, and from 03N
to 07N between 20W and 39W. isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

One upper level trough is in place already in the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. That feature is the topic of discussion for
the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A second upper level trough, from
NE-to-SW, is moving from Texas into west central Gulf of Mexico.
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the waters from 90W westward.

A surface ridge in the northern Gulf coast will shift eastward
through mid week. A developing low pressure center is forecast
to emerge off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday
night. The low pressure center will move N slowly. It will
approach the N central Gulf coast by Saturday evening, bringing
fresh to strong winds and building seas to the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Hispaniola
eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is moving around a trough, that
passes through the Atlantic Ocean, toward the coast of Venezuela
along 65W/66W.

A surface Ridge along 30N will maintain fresh to locally strong
trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and strong winds and
sea heights to 9 feet will affect the NW coast of Colombia
through Friday. The low pressure center, that is just to the east
of Belize, will move N into the Gulf of Mexico late on Thursday.
Fresh to strong winds will develop between the trough and the
Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is to the south of Cuba,
on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

An E-to-W oriented ridge along 30N will support gentle to
moderate SE winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh trade winds
south of 22N into the middle of the week. The wind speeds will
pulse to strong N of Hispaniola mainly at night. The winds and
sea heights will diminish slightly by Friday, as the ridge shifts
eastward. SE winds may increase near Cay Sal Bank and the Florida
Straits starting on Friday, as the NW Caribbean Sea low pressure
center moves northward through the Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 05/22/2018 - 05:40

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The southern end of a sharp upper trough over the northwest
Caribbean is supporting a surface trough reaches from central
Honduras to near Cozumel Island. Deep layer tropical moisture
continues to stream northward on the eastern edge of the upper
trough, where related upper divergence is supporting clusters of
showers and thunderstorms from just north of San Andres Island to
just south of Grand Cayman Island. While environmental conditions
are expected to be unfavorable for development low pressure along
the surface trough during the next couple of days, some gradual
subtropical or tropical development is possible later this week
while the system moves slowly northward into the central or
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and much of Florida
during the next several days. For more information on the heavy
rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. There is a very low chance for tropical storm formation
within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 38W S of 10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This
wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. No significant
convection is noted with this tropical wave.

A weak tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea south of
the Virgin Islands, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this tropical wave, and it will likely
become diffuse through late today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The intertropical convergence zone
continues from 04N15W to 04N27W to near the tropical wave along
38W, then continuing west to 00N50W near the coast of Brazil.
From 00N to 05N between 15W and 35W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp upper trough persists over the eastern Gulf this morning
from the western Florida Panhandle to near the Yucatan Channel.
An associated surface trough is analyzed directly beneath the
near stationary trough. Divergent flow aloft is supporting a few
showers and thunderstorms along 23N/24N east of 90W to the
Straits of Florida. The trough interrupts a broad surface ridge
reaching across the northern Gulf and Deep South states. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds are evident across the Gulf as noted in
buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data. Buoys and
altimeter satellite data show generally 2 to 4 ft seas. No other
showers or thunderstorms are noted.

The ridge over the northern Gulf coast will shift east through
mid week ahead of a developing low pressure area expected to
emerge off the coast of Yucatan Thu. The low pressure will
continue to move northward into the north central Gulf through
Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the
eastern Gulf, then diminish Sun as the low moves north of the
area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features over
the NW Caribbean Sea.

Atlantic ridging north of the area is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds from the tropical north Atlantic
west of 55W to the central Caribbean, except for fresh to strong
winds funneling along the higher coastal terrain of northeast
Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Trade wind convergence,
possibly aided by the upper trough is supporting scattered
convection from the central coast of Colombia to near 13N77W.
Meanwhile a weak tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean is
starting to lose definition as it drifts west, and will likely
dissipate. A line of showers and thunderstorms is active from
near Guadeloupe to 18N55W, at the base of broad upper low
centered north of the area. Buoy observations and altimeter data
show5 to 7 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft seas
over the central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft seas in the eastern
Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere.

The Atlantic ridge will maintain fresh to locally strong trades
over the central Caribbean through Fri. Strong winds and seas to
9 ft will affect the NW coast of Colombia. Low pressure may form
along the trough in the northwest Caribbean and near the Yucatan
Peninsula through mid week, then move north into the Gulf of
Mexico late Thu. Fresh to strong winds will develop between the
trough and the Atlantic high pressure south of Cuba Fri,
persisting through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong
trade winds pulsing off the north coast of Haiti. The stronger
winds are due to localized overnight land breezes off the coast,
and relatively tight gradient south of the subtropical ridge,
reaching east to west along 30N. Otherwise, the ridge is
supporting gentle to moderate SE winds north of 22N and moderate
to fresh trade winds south of 22N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open
waters.

The ridge will shift eastward from mid to late week, as developing
low pressure moves through the Gulf of Mexico west of the
region. This change in the pattern will result in slightly
stronger winds over the Cay Sal Bank area, and SE to S winds
increasing over the northern Bahamas and off northeast Florida
Sat. Winds and seas will diminish elsewhere due to a weakened and
displaced Atlantic ridge.

Farther east, a 1025 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 30N53W producing mostly fair weather, with moderate
trade winds over tropical Atlantic. Recent altimeter satellite
passes indicate seas to 8 ft over the deep tropics between 45W and
55W, likely in NE swell. This should diminish below 8 ft through
late today.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 05/22/2018 - 00:40

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize.
This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread
cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula. While environmental
conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during
the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical
development is possible later this week while the system moves
slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several
days. For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see
products issued by your local weather office. There is a very low
chance for tropical storm formation within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 35W S of 10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This
wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-03N between 31W-35W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean Sea along 63W S of 16N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is also embedded in a 700 mb
trough and has a poleward surge of moisture associated with it.
This wave is expected to weaken over the next 24-36 hours and
be ill defined thereafter. Scattered showers are confined to NE
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
02N34W. The ITCZ continues W of the tropical wave near 01N36W and
extends to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-06N between 11W-29W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb low is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W.
A surface trough extends S from the low to the SE Gulf of Mexico
near 23N85W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection
over S Florida, the Straits of Florida , and the SE Gulf, S of 26N
and E of 85W. Elsewhere, scattered showers remain along the
Louisiana and Texas coasts.

In the upper levels, a sharp upper level ridge is over the NW
Gulf with axis along 94W. More importantly, a sharp upper level
trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 86W. Upper level
diffluence E of the trough axis is enhancing the convection over
the SE Gulf.

A surface ridge over the NW Gulf will shift east through mid week
ahead of a developing low pressure area expected to emerge off
the coast of Yucatan Thu. The low pressure will continue to move
northward into the north central Gulf through Sat, bringing fresh
to strong winds and building seas to the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features over
the NW Caribbean Sea.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W
Caribbean from 13N-22N between 76W-85W. Patches of scattered
moderate convection is inland over Central America from the
Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. Elsewhere, the monsoon trough is
along 09N from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-13N between 73W-86W.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW
Caribbean. An upper level ridge is over the central Caribbean. A
large upper level trough is over the E Caribbean with strong
subsidence over the NE Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to locally
strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea through Friday night.
Strong winds, and sea heights to 9 feet, will affect the NW coast
of Colombia. A surface trough will linger in the NW Caribbean Sea
through Thursday. It is possible that a low pressure center may
form along the surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras on Tuesday,
and then move northward into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Fresh
to strong winds will develop in the central and western Caribbean
Sea from Thursday through Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N53W
producing mostly fair weather.

Upper level diffluence is over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include
central Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Florida coast. Scattered
showers are over the area. A large upper level low is centered
near 22N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N-22N between
54W-58W.

A surface E to W ridge along 30N will support gentle to moderate
SE winds north of 22N and moderate to fresh trade winds south of
22N into mid week, with winds pulsing to strong off Haiti mainly
at night. Winds and seas will diminish slightly into Fri as the
ridge shifts east. SE winds may increase near Cay Sal Bank
starting Fri as low pressure moves northward through the Gulf of
Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 05/21/2018 - 19:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A trough
extends from the Florida Panhandle, beyond the Yucatan Channel,
into the NW Caribbean Sea. This weather pattern is drawing deep
tropical moisture northward, from the SW Caribbean Sea between 76W
and 84W. A surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico extends from a
1016 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the
Florida Big Bend near 30N87W. A second surface trough is in the
western part of the Caribbean Sea, from 21N86W, across eastern
Honduras and NE Nicaragua, to 10N83W in the SW Caribbean Sea.
Widely scattered moderate convection and isolated strong
rainshowers cover the areas that extend from the SW Caribbean Sea,
across Cuba, to Florida, and the Bahamas and the nearby Atlantic
Ocean. This activity is expected to continue through at least
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development during the next few days. Some gradual development is
possible later this week while the system moves into the central
or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba and Florida during the next several days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 33W S of 10N, moving W 10-15 kt. This
wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 02S to 05N between 29W and 34W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean Sea, along 62W S of 16N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave continues to appear as a 700 mb
trough and has a poleward surge in moisture associated with it.
This wave most likely will weaken over the next 24-36 hours and
will be ill defined thereafter. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea near 09N13W, to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W
to 04N27W, and 01N37W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 14W-27W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features and
precipitation.

Scattered rainshowers are from 20N to 22N between 96W and 99W, in
the coastal sections of Mexico. This area of precipitation has
been moving southward.

A surface ridge will remain in the NW Gulf through Thursday
night. The current eastern Gulf of Mexico surface trough will
drift westward, into the central Gulf of Mexico, by Wednesday. It
is possible that a low pressure center may develop in the the NW
Caribbean Sea within the next 24 hours, and move northward along
the trough into the south central Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features and
precipitation, from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow cuts across the area, to the north
of the line that curves from Hispaniola to 13N67W to 13N60W. This
upper level wind flow is around the periphery of the 23N58W
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the north
of the Hispaniola-to-14N60W line.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from N Colombia beyond SE
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 05N to 11N between 73W and 81W.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to locally
strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea through Friday night.
Strong winds, and sea heights to 9 feet, will affect the NW coast
of Colombia. A surface trough will linger in the far western
Caribbean Sea through Thursday. It is possible that a low pressure
center may form along the trough in the Gulf of Honduras on
Tuesday, and then move northward into the Gulf of Mexico on
Friday. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the central and
western Caribbean Sea from Thursday through Friday night, between
the surface trough and the Atlantic Ocean high pressure.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features and
precipitation, from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.
The chances for heavy rainfall in Florida, across the Bahamas,
and in the western Atlantic Ocean will continue.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N58W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and parts of the
Caribbean Sea from 13N northward between 42W and 74W.

An east-to-west oriented ridge will be along 30N through Friday
night. The ridge will support fresh to locally strong E to SE
winds mainly S of 26N, including the Old Bahama Channel, and the
approaches to the Windward Passage through Wednesday. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will prevail N of Hispaniola, mainly at
night. It is possible that a broad area of low pressure may
develop in the NW Caribbean Sea and move northward across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late in the week. This will cause strong SE
to S winds to develop in the waters W of 75W on Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 05/21/2018 - 12:49

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A trough
extends from the Florida Panhandle, beyond the Yucatan Channel,
into the NW Caribbean Sea. This weather pattern is drawing deep
tropical moisture northward, from the SW Caribbean Sea between
76W and 84W. A surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico extends from
a 1015 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the
Florida Big Bend along 85W/86W, to 23N. A second surface
trough is in the western part of the Caribbean Sea, from 21N86W,
across eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua, to 10N83W in the SW
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers cover the areas that
extend from the SW Caribbean Sea, across Cuba, to Florida, and the
Bahamas and the nearby Atlantic Ocean. This activity is expected
to continue through at least Tuesday, with heavy rainfall and
possible flooding. Environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next few days. Some gradual
development is possible later this week while the system moves
into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible across western Cuba and Florida during the next
several days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 15N southward, based on
current satellite imagery, moving W 10 to 15 knots. This wave is
embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 05N between 29W and 32W.

A tropical wave is just to the east of the Caribbean Sea, along
20N58W 15N59W 10N61W, just to the west of Barbados. This wave
continues to appear as a 700 mb trough and has a poleward surge in
moisture associated with it. The tropical wave is moving through
an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is moving around a
23N58W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 12N to
23N between 52W and 65W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea near 09N13W, to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W
to 04N27W, and 01N37W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are from
07N southward.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features and
precipitation.

Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 20N to 22N
between 96W and 99W, in the coastal sections of Mexico. This area
of precipitation has been moving southward during the day today,
from the border with Texas to its present position.

A surface ridge will remain in the northern Gulf Coast through
Thursday night. The current eastern Gulf of Mexico surface trough
will drift westward, into the central Gulf of Mexico, by
Wednesday. It is possible that a low pressure center may develop
in the the NW Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and move northward along
the trough into the south central Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features and
precipitation, from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow cuts across the area, to the north
of the line that curves from Hispaniola to 13N67W to 13N60W. This
upper level wind flow is around the periphery of the 23N58W
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the north
of the Hispaniola-to-14N60W line.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from N Colombia beyond SE
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers
are elsewhere from 05N to 11N between 73W and 81W.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to locally
strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea through Friday night.
Strong winds, and sea heights to 9 feet, will affect the NW coast
of Colombia. A surface trough will linger in the far western
Caribbean Sea through Thursday. It is possible that a low pressure
center may form along the trough in the Gulf of Honduras on
Thursday, and then move northward into the Gulf of Mexico on
Friday. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the central and
western Caribbean Sea from Thursday through Friday night, between
the surface trough and the Atlantic Ocean high pressure.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the upper level trough and related surface weather features and
precipitation, from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea.
The chances for heavy rainfall in Florida, across the Bahamas,
and in the western Atlantic Ocean will continue.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N58W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and parts of the
Caribbean Sea from 13N northward between 42W and 74W.

An east-to-west oriented ridge will be along 30N through Friday
night. The ridge will support fresh to locally strong E to SE
winds mainly S of 26N, including the Old Bahama Channel, and the
approaches to the Windward Passage through Wednesday. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will prevail N of Hispaniola, mainly at
night. It is possible that a broad area of low pressure may
develop in the NW Caribbean Sea and move northward across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late in the week. This will cause strong SE
to S winds to develop in the waters W of 75W on Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 05/21/2018 - 07:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A trough
extends from the Florida Panhandle, beyond the Yucatan Channel,
into the NW Caribbean Sea. This weather pattern is drawing deep
tropical moisture northward, from the SW Caribbean Sea between
76W and 84W, and is supporting scattered to numerous moderate to
strong rainshowers, from the SW Caribbean Sea, across Cuba, to
Florida, and the Bahamas and the nearby Atlantic Ocean. This
activity is expected to continue through at least Tuesday, with
heavy rainfall and flooding.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 12N33W 07N34W 01N35W, moving W 10 to 15
knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Although
deep moisture accompanies the wave, subsidence from aloft is
inhibiting convection except over the southern portion. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 29W and 35W.

A tropical wave is just to the east of the Caribbean Sea, along
59W from 16N southward. This wave continues to appear as a 700 mb
trough and has a poleward surge in moisture associated with it.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 300 nm of
either side of the trough axis. This trough will enter the E
Caribbean by Tuesday and then will become ill defined.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 11N15W to
05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N31W, then resumes west
of a tropical wave from 01N35W to 00N51W. Besides the convection
associated with the wave, isolated moderate convection is from 01N
to 07N between 11W and 28W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough prevails across the eastern Gulf, with an
axis along 85W. Diffluent flow aloft east of the trough is
bringing tropical moisture over the far east Gulf and western
Atlantic waters affecting the Florida Peninsula and Florida
Straits/Keys. Please refer to the Special Features section above for
more details. A surface trough is embedded underneath the upper
trough, and as of 0300 UTC has an axis that extends from 30N84W
to near 23N85W. A weak ridge axis extends across the remainder of
the basin along 30N producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. A
weakening line of thunderstorms has emerged within 120 nm E of the
SE Texas coast as of 0300 UTC and will likely affect those waters
until sunrise.

A surface ridge will remain in the northern Gulf Coast through
Thursday night. The current eastern Gulf of Mexico surface trough
will drift westward through at least Wednesday. It is possible
that a low pressure center may develop along the trough, in the
the NW Caribbean Sea, toward the end of the work-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
western Caribbean. A surface trough is over the western Caribbean
and as of 0300 UTC had an axis extending from 21N85W to 11N83W.
The combination of upper- level diffluence on the eastern side of
the upper-level trough and convergence associated with the surface
trough is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection
across the Caribbean waters between 78W and 84W. Broad high
pressure over the subtropical Atlantic continues to support
moderate to fresh tradewinds over most of the basin, except fresh
to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Wave heights of 8 to 9
ft persist over the central Caribbean as confirmed by both satellite
altimeters and current buoy data.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to
locally strong trades over the central Caribbean through Fri
night. Strong winds and seas to 9 ft will affect the NW coast of
Colombia. A western Caribbean Sea surface trough will drift
westward across Central America through at least Thursday. It is
possible that a low pressure center may develop along the trough,
and move across Nicaragua and Honduras, emerging into the Gulf of
Honduras by Thursday. The pressure gradient between the trough
and the Atlantic Ocean high pressure will result in fresh to
strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and in parts of the
western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow aloft to the east of an upper-level trough
currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, combined with a surface
trough extending just offshore of northern Florida is supporting
scattered to numerous moderate convection across Florida, the
Bahamas, and Atlantic waters mainly west of 76W. To the east, high
pressure centered over the central Atlantic spans across the basin.
Surface observations and latest scatterometer data indicate
prevailing fresh to locally strong southeast winds over the
Bahamas as well as within a few hundred miles north of Hispaniola
and Cuba. A recent altimeter pass indicates wave heights of 8 to
9 ft over these waters as far N as 26N outside of the Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh tradewinds are occurring elsewhere across the
central and western Atlantic south of 27N. Gentle to moderate
winds cover the central Atlantic north of 27N. Moderate to
occasionally fresh northeast winds are occurring over the eastern
Atlantic.

The chances for heavy rainfall in Florida, across the Bahamas,
and in the western Atlantic Ocean will continue.

An east-to-west oriented ridge will be along 30N through the
middle of the week. The ridge will support fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds mainly S of 26N, including the Old Bahama
Channel, and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Tue
night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail N of
Hispaniola, mainly at night. A broad area of low pressure may
develop over the NW Caribbean Sea and move northward across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will cause strong SE to S winds to
develop over the waters W of 75W late Fri into Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon, 05/21/2018 - 00:13

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
113 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An upper-level trough extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and western Caribbean, with diffluent flow aloft prevailing
across the Florida Peninsula, the western Atlantic, and
Caribbean, to the east of the upper trough's axis. This pattern is
drawing deep tropical moisture northward from the SW Caribbean
between 76W and 84W and is supporting scattered to numerous
moderate convection along this corridor. This activity is expected
to continue through at least Tuesday, with heavy rainfall and
flooding possible over the land areas affected.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that
extends from 13N31W to 00N33W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave
is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Although deep moisture
accompanies the wave, subsidence from aloft is inhibiting
convection except over the southern portion. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N to 04N between 29W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
17N56W to 05N57W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave continues to
appear as a 700 mb trough and has a poleward surge in moisture
associated with it. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 300 nm of either side of the trough axis. This trough
will enter the E Caribbean by Tuesday and then will become ill
defined.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 11N15W to
05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N31W, then resumes west
of a tropical wave from 01N35W to 00N51W. Besides the convection
associated with the wave, isolated moderate convection is from 01N
to 07N between 11W and 28W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough prevails across the eastern Gulf, with an
axis along 85W. Diffluent flow aloft east of the trough is
bringing tropical moisture over the far east Gulf and western
Atlantic waters affecting the Florida Peninsula and Florida
Straits/Keys. Please refer to the Special Features section above for
more details. A surface trough is embedded underneath the upper
trough, and as of 0300 UTC has an axis that extends from 30N84W
to near 23N85W. A weak ridge axis extends across the remainder of
the basin along 30N producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. A
weakening line of thunderstorms has emerged within 120 nm E of the
SE Texas coast as of 0300 UTC and will likely affect those waters
until sunrise.

The surface trough is expected move NW across the eastern Gulf
through today. The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf will
remain nearly stationary through the first half of this week,
supporting ongoing convection over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
western Caribbean. A surface trough is over the western Caribbean
and as of 0300 UTC had an axis extending from 21N85W to 11N83W.
The combination of upper- level diffluence on the eastern side of
the upper-level trough and convergence associated with the surface
trough is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection
across the Caribbean waters between 78W and 84W. Broad high
pressure over the subtropical Atlantic continues to support
moderate to fresh tradewinds over most of the basin, except fresh
to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Wave heights of 8 to 9
ft persist over the central Caribbean as confirmed by both satellite
altimeters and current buoy data.

Over the next day or so, the upper-level trough and surface
trough will remain nearly stationary enhancing shower and
thunderstorm activity over the western Caribbean. The surface
ridging pattern over the Atlantic will persist, keeping a similar
wind profile in place across the basin into the middle of this
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow aloft to the east of an upper-level trough
currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, combined with a surface
trough extending just offshore of northern Florida is supporting
scattered to numerous moderate convection across Florida, the
Bahamas, and Atlantic waters mainly west of 76W. To the east, high
pressure centered over the central Atlantic spans across the basin.
Surface observations and latest scatterometer data indicate
prevailing fresh to locally strong southeast winds over the
Bahamas as well as within a few hundred miles north of Hispaniola
and Cuba. A recent altimeter pass indicates wave heights of 8 to
9 ft over these waters as far N as 26N outside of the Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh tradewinds are occurring elsewhere across the
central and western Atlantic south of 27N. Gentle to moderate
winds cover the central Atlantic north of 27N. Moderate to
occasionally fresh northeast winds are occurring over the eastern
Atlantic.

The overall pattern will change little through the next 24 hours.
Therefore, the chances for heavy rainfall over the Florida
Peninsula, Bahamas, and western Atlantic will continue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Sun, 05/20/2018 - 19:02

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An upper-level trough extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and western Caribbean, with diffluent flow aloft prevailing
across the Florida Peninsula, the western Atlantic, and
Caribbean, to the east of the upper trough's axis. This pattern is
drawing deep tropical moisture northward from the SW Caribbean
between 76W and 83W and is supporting scattered to numerous
moderate convection along this corridor. This activity is expected
to continue through at least Tuesday, with heavy rainfall and
flooding possible over the land areas affected.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
13N30W to 01N30W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is embedded
in a sharp 700 mb trough. Although deep moisture accompanies the
wave, subsidence from aloft is inhibiting convection except over
the southern portion. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N
to 03N between 26W and 33W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 14N17W to
08N26W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 02N32W to
01N49W. Besides the convection associated with the wave, isolated
moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 06W and 26W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough prevails across the eastern Gulf, with an
axis along 85W. Diffluent flow aloft east of the trough is
bringing tropical moisture over the far east Gulf and western
Atlantic waters affecting the Florida Peninsula and Florida
Straits/Keys. Please refer to the Special Features section above for
more details. A surface trough is embedded within this
convection, extending across central Florida and adjacent waters
to near 23N85W. A weak ridge axis extends across the remainder of
the basin along 30N producing mainly gentle to moderate winds.

The surface trough is expected move NW across the eastern Gulf
through Monday. The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf will
remain nearly stationary through the first half of this upcoming
week, supporting ongoing convection over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
western Caribbean. A surface trough is over the western Caribbean
with an axis extending from 21N82W to 12N83W. The combination of
upper- level diffluence on the eastern side of the upper-level
trough and convergence associated with the surface trough is
supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection across the
Caribbean waters between 78W and 84W. Broad high pressure over
the subtropical Atlantic continues to support moderate to fresh
tradewinds over most of the basin, except fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean. Wave heights of 8 to 9 ft persist
over the central Caribbean as confirmed by a recent satellite
altimeter pass and current buoy data.

Over the next day or so, the upper-level trough and surface
trough will remain nearly stationary enhancing shower and
thunderstorm activity over the western Caribbean. The surface
ridging pattern over the Atlantic will persist, keeping a similar
wind profile in place across the basin into the middle of this
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow aloft to the east of an upper-level trough
currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, combined with a surface
trough extending just offshore of northern Florida is supporting
scattered to numerous moderate convection across Florida, the
Bahamas, and Atlantic waters mainly west of 76W. To the east, high
pressure centered over the central Atlantic spans across the basin.
Surface observations and latest scatterometer data indicate
prevailing fresh to locally strong southeast winds over the
Bahamas as well as within a few hundred miles north of Hispaniola.
A recent altimeter pass indicates wave heights of 8 to 9 ft over
these waters as far as 26N outside of the Bahamas. Moderate to
fresh tradewinds are occurring elsewhere across the central and
western Atlantic south of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds cover the
central Atlantic north of 27N. Moderate to occasionally fresh
northeast winds are occurring over the eastern Atlantic.

The overall pattern will change little through the next 24 hours.
Therefore, the chances for heavy rainfall over the Florida
Peninsula, Bahamas, and western Atlantic will continue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Latto

Categories: Weather

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