NWS Weather

Subscribe to NWS Weather feed NWS Weather
National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
Updated: 24 min 5 sec ago

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

4 hours 30 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Maria is centered near 25.4N 72.3W at 23/1500 UTC or
about 215 nm E of Eleuthera Island and about 280 nm E of Nassau
Bahamas moving N-NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to
125 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 135 nm
of center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 22N-30N
between 69W-76W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
20N-29N between 63W-69W...and from 27N-31N between 76W-80W. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 31.9N 49.4W at 23/1500 UTC or
about 780 nm E of Bermuda and about 1155 nm WSW of the Azores
moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 31N-33N between
49W-51W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 09N22W to 22N20W moving W at 5-10 kt.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb low...the northern vortex...
centered near 21N21W and associated 700 mb troughing between
16W-28W. No significant deep convection is associated with the
wave axis at this time. Ongoing deep convection remains S of the
monsoon trough axis and will be mentioned below.

Tropical wave extends from 05N56W to 17N55W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave remains on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge
anchored near 22N40W and lies beneath an upper level trough axis
extending from 25N52W to a broad base deep in the tropics near
05N55W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N
between 49W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
14N17W to 09N23W to 06N33W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 06N33W to 05N38W to 06N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-13N between 14W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery
centered over the Florida panhandle near 31N85W with a trough axis
extending southward over the eastern Gulf to a broad base over the
Yucatan peninsula and NW Caribbean Sea. An overall weak pressure
pattern across the basin is resulting in gentle to moderate
easterly winds with areas of isolated showers and tstms generally
occurring from 23N-29N between 84W-89W under the influence of the
middle to upper level lifting dynamics in place. W of 90W...dry
and stable northerly flow aloft and generally gentle to moderate
E-SE winds are providing for fair conditions and mostly clear
skies this afternoon. Through the remainder of the weekend into
the middle of next week...little change is expected in overall
conditions. By Tuesday night into Wednesday...E-SE flow will
increase slightly into moderate to occasional fresh breeze
conditions as ridging noses in from the Arklatex region into the
eastern Gulf Wednesday into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails W of 72W this afternoon as
Hurricane Maria is well north of the basin and an overall weak
pressure pattern remains in place across the central and western
Caribbean. As a result of the weaker pressure pattern...winds
remain generally light to gentle and variable at times. A couple
of weak surface troughs are analyzed...one from the coast of
eastern Cuba near 20N78W to the central coast of Honduras near 16N
86W...the other extending south of Hispaniola near 17N71W to
12N70W. Across the NW Caribbean...skies remain mostly clear with
fair conditions prevailing this afternoon. To the east...the other
surface trough is providing focus for widely scattered showers and
tstms from 13N-18N between 69W-72W. In addition...across the SW
Caribbean...the monsoon trough axis extends along 08N/09N with
scattered showers and strong tstms occurring S of 12N between
75W-83W. Finally...a tropical wave currently along 56W will
continue approaching the Lesser Antilles through Sunday and
increase the probability of isolated showers and tstms...otherwise
moderate to occasional fresh SE winds will prevail E of 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...
A surface trough currently extends from the south-central coast
near 17N71W to 12N71W across the central Caribbean Sea and
continues to provide focus for scattered showers and tstms across
the southeastern portion of the island this afternoon. The
troughing will slide westward through Sunday as weak ridging
builds in from the central Atlc from the east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Outside the influence of Maria across the SW North Atlc
waters...surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of
the central and eastern Atlc. A 1021 mb high is centered E-NE from
Bermuda near 34N56W and a 1021 mb high is centered across the
central Atlc near 31N40W. Between these two highs...Tropical Storm
Lee continues to influence the waters from 30N-35N between 45W-
53W. In addition...a middle to upper level low is centered near
27N53W generating scattered showers and tstms from 25N-32N between
39W-45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

11 hours 1 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria is centered near 24.8N 72.0W at 23/0900 UTC, or
about 295 nm east of Nassau, moving north-northwest at 8 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 90 nm of the center, except within 120 nm in
the south quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 21N-30N between 66W-75W. Maria is forecast to slowly decrease
in intensity during the next couple of days while it turns more
northward. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 31.9N 49.2W at 23/0900 UTC,
or about 791 nm east of Bermuda moving north at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
in the north quadrant. Additional scattered moderate convection
is located to the southeast of Lee from 24N-30N between 41W-52W
associated with a middle to upper-level low. Lee forecast to turn
to the northeast over the next couple of days. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for the complete details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis extending
from 18N19W to 03N22W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Abundant
moisture is present with the tropical wave axis as measured by
SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 15W-25W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N52W to 06N53W, moving west at 10 kt. Plentiful moisture
is present near the tropical wave axis as indicated by SSMI TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-20N between
50W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
14N17W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 08N59W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, no
activity is present along these boundaries at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored over the
northeast CONUS. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate
east to southeast flow with mainly 1 to 3 ft seas across the Gulf
of Mexico. Isolated showers are observed over the eastern portion
of the basin supported by a middle to upper level trough extending
from an upper-level low centered over southwest Georgia. Little
change is expected through the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough trails Hurricane Maria which is moving north-
northwest away from the north coast of Hispaniola. The trough
extends from 20N75W to 14N80W. Associated outer rainbands of
Maria continue to induce scattered convection over Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola although this activity should gradually diminish
during the next couple of days as Maria continues to move away
from the area. The remainder of the Caribbean is fairly tranquil
with gentle to moderate winds west of the surface trough, and
moderate to fresh easterly flow in the east Caribbean east of the
trough. Aloft, a middle to upper-level trough extends across the
northwest Caribbean with mainly dry and stable air, while upper
anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Outer rainbands associated with Hurricane Maria, which continues
to move north-northwest away from the north coast of the island,
continue to support scattered rainfall mainly over the far east
portion of the island. Activity should gradually diminish during
the next couple of days as Maria continues away from the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Lee.

Otherwise, a surface trough is over the central portion of the
basin south of Lee from near 27N51W to 22N57W. Isolated showers
are observed along the trough. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high
centered near 27N38W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

16 hours 25 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria is centered near 24.1N 71.7W at 23/0300 UTC, or
about 335 nm east of Nassau, moving north-northwest at 8 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 90 nm of the center, except within 120 nm in
the south quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 21N-30N between 66W-75W. Maria is forecast to slowly decrease
in intensity during the next couple of days while it turns more
northward. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 31.5N 49.0W at 23/0300 UTC,
or about 904 nm east of Bermuda moving north at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
in the north quadrant. Additional scattered moderate convection
is located to the southeast of Lee from 24N-30N between 41W-52W
associated with a middle to upper-level low. Lee forecast to turn
to the northeast over the next couple of days. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for the complete details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis extending
from 17N18W to 02N21W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Abundant
moisture is present with the tropical wave axis as measured by
SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 15W-25W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N49W to 05N53W, moving west at 10 kt. Plentiful moisture
is present near the tropical wave axis as indicated by SSMI TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-20N between
49W-55W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
13N17W to 06N31W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to 06N51W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, no
activity is present along these boundaries at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored over the
northeast CONUS. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate
east to southeast flow with mainly 1 to 3 ft seas across the Gulf
of Mexico. Isolated showers are observed over the eastern portion
of the basin supported by a middle to upper level trough extending
from an upper-level low centered over southwest Georgia. Little
change is expected through the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough trails Hurricane Maria which is moving north-
northwest away from the north coast of Hispaniola. The trough
extends from 20N74W to 13N78W. Associated outer rainbands of
Maria continue to induce flash flooding over Puerto Rico although
this activity should gradually diminish during the next couple of
days as Maria continues to move away from the area. The remainder
of the Caribbean is fairly tranquil with gentle to moderate winds
west of the surface trough, and moderate to fresh easterly flow
in the east Caribbean east of the trough. Aloft, a middle to
upper-level trough extends across the northwest Caribbean with
mainly dry and stable air, while upper anticyclonic flow prevails
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Outer rainbands associated with Hurricane Maria, which continues
to move north-northwest away from the north coast of the island,
continue to support scattered rainfall and localized flash
flooding mainly over the far east portion of the island. Activity
should gradually diminish during the next couple of days as Maria
continues away from the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Lee.

Otherwise, a surface trough is over the northwest portion of the
basin reaching from near 31N77W to 26N80W. This trough is supporting
scattered showers from the western Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula.
Another trough extends south of Lee from 28N51W to 22N55W. No
significant convection is observed at this time. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a
1022 mb high centered near 27N38W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 19:00

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2216 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria is centered near 23.8N 71.6W at 23/0000 UTC, or
about 256 nm E of the central Bahamas, or about 326 nm ESE of
Nassau, moving NNW at 8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 953 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the
center, except within 120 nm in the S quadrant. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the N quadrant, 210 nm
in the E quadrant, 150 nm in the S quadrant and 120 nm in the W
quadrant. Maria is forecast to only very slowly decrease in
intensity during the next couple of days while it begins to turn
more northward. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for the complete details.

Tropical Depression Lee is centered near 30.8N 48.9W at 22/2100
UTC, or about 817 nm E of Bermuda moving N at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure 1014 mb. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 60 nm in the NE semicircle and within 30 nm in the SW
semicircle of Lee. Additional scattered moderate convection is
located to the SE of Lee from 21N to 27N between 39W and 46W,
associated with a middle to upper level low. Lee has regenerated
over the central Atlantic and is forecast to gradually
strengthen, becoming a tropical storm tonight, while turning to
the NE and E over the next couple of days. Please see the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for the complete details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is centered near 39.3N 69.1W at
22/2100 UTC, or about 122 nm SSE of Nantucket, Massachusetts,
stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. No deep convection
is present with Jose. Tropical storm conditions have diminished at
coastal locations, and thus the final advisory has been issued.
Please see the final NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for the complete details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis extending
from 17N17W to 01N19W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Abundant moisture
is present with the tropical wave axis as measured by SSMI TPW
imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between
15W and 21W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N49W to just offshore of the coast of French Guiana near
06N52W, moving W at 10 kt. Plentiful moisture is present near the
tropical wave axis as indicated by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 19N between 49W and
53W, with additional isolated activity within 510 nm E of the
tropical wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
14N16W to 06N26W to 05N32W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 05N32W to 06N49W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 08N between 33W and 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure located over western Tennessee extends a ridge axis
to the SW to across coastal sections of Texas. This ridge axis is
maintaining gentle to moderate E to SE flow with mainly 1 to 3 ft
seas across the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated convection is present
with a middle to upper level trough extending from an upper low
over upstate South Carolina to the NE Gulf near 30N85W to the SW
Gulf near 22N94W. Additional convection is firing over the Florida
Peninsula with the assistance of daytime heating, however the
activity is diminishing with the arrival of sunset.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough trails Hurricane Maria which is moving NNW away
from the N coast of Hispaniola extending from southern Haiti near
18N73W to 13N78W. Associated outer rainbands with Maria continue
to induce flash flooding over Puerto Rico although this activity
should gradually diminish during the next couple of days as Maria
continues to move away from the area. The remainder of the
Caribbean is fairly tranquil with gentle to moderate winds W of
the surface trough axis, and moderate to fresh easterly flow in
the E Caribbean E of the trough axis. Aloft, a middle to upper
level trough extends across the NW Caribbean with mainly dry and
stable air, while upper anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Outer rainbands associated with Hurricane Maria, which continues
to move NNW away from the N coast of the island, continue to
support heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. Activity
should gradually diminish during the next couple of days as Maria
continues away from the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Depression Lee.

Otherwise, a surface trough is over the NW portion of the SW N
Atlantic basin reaching from near 31N76W to between Grand Bahama
and the E coast of Florida. This trough is supporting scattered
thunderstorms from the western Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula.
Upper level anticyclonic flow dominates the basin, except between
46W and 56W where a mainly N to S middle to upper level trough is
present.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 12:54

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 22.8N 71.2W at 22/1800 UTC, or
about 78 nm N of Grand Turk Island, moving NNW at 8 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110
kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90
nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 180 nm of the center. The Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas are presently under a hurricane warning. The
central Bahamas are under a tropical storm warning. Please see the
latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is centered near 39.3N 69.3W at
22/1800 UTC, or about 117 nm SSE of Nantucket, Massachusetts,
stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Dry and stable air
prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some
scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm E of Jose and 300
nm W of it. Jose is expected to meander well off the coast of New
England for the next several days. Please see the latest NHC
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and
the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis extending
from 17N16W to 05N18W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is under a
moist area as seen by SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated moderate
convection is from 05N-12N between 12W-20W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N42W to 06N44W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is under a
moist area as seen by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 240 nm of the axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
12N16W to 07N24W to 06N30W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N30W to 08N49W, then resumes from 10N52W to
11N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is from 05N- 08N between
31W-33W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N
between 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over North Carolina near 35N82W.
Surface ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico N of 24N. Scattered
moderate convection is over portions of S Florida, and the SE Gulf
of Mexico. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from
21N94W to 17N92W. scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. Surface winds over most of the Gulf are only 5-10 kt. The
Bay of Campeche has some 15 kt winds. In the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 86W. Upper
level moisture is S of 26N, while strong moisture is N of 26N.
Expect additional convection over Florida over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria is N of the Turks and Caicos Islands,
however, the outer rain bands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, with the potential for flash flooding. Widely
scattered moderate convection is S of Puerto Rico from 14N-18N
between 65W-69W. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough
extends across Costa Rica, Panama through Colombia supporting
isolated showers over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with
axis along 86W. Some scattered showers are E of the trough axis
near Jamaica due to upper level diffluence.

...HISPANIOLA...

The Government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
warnings for the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm force winds
are now N of the island over the Atlantic. Scattered showers
remain over most of Hispaniola. Expect showers to continue for the
next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose. A 1016 mb low,
the remnants of Lee, is located near 30N49W. A surface trough
extends S from the low to 25N50W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 25N-31N between 47W-50W. The remainder of the
basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high
centered north of the area. Of note in the upper levels, a large
upper level low is centered near 23N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is E of this center from 20N-26N between 41W-46W due
to upper level diffluence.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 07:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 21.9N 70.9W at 22/1200 UTC, or
about 26 nm NNE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 6 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110
kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within
120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 300 nm of the center. Maria's eye will move near or just
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas
today. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for the complete details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is centered near 39.7N 69.0W at
22/1200 UTC, or about 100 nm SSE of Nantucket, Massachusetts,
moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and
stable air prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs,
however some scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm E of
Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose is expected to meander well off
the coast of New England for the next several days. Please see
the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa earlier this
morning.
Its axis extends from 15N17W to 04N17W. The wave is in a region
of low vertical wind shear, however abundant Saharan dry air and
dust are in the northern and central wave environment, thus
supporting lack of convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N42W to 06N44W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW
show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a
lack of convection at this time. The exception is from 18N to 20N
between 40W and 44W where numerous moderate and scattered tstms
are being supported by shallow moisture and mid-level diffluence.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
10N15W to 08N23W to 06N33W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N33W to 08N39W, then resumes from 10N46W to
10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between
22W and 31W and from 07N to 11N between 46W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S across the
northern Gulf waters and provides E light to gentle flow E of 90W
and ESE light to moderate winds W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from
aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair
weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the
SW Gulf support scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of
Campeche where a surface trough extends from 22N93W to inland S
Mexico. No major changes expected during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola,
however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in
continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection
extends to 13N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished
mainly to moderate with seas to 7 ft. Isolated showers are in the
SW basin S of 16N associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail in the E Caribbean
while light and variable flow is elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading
westward across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist
into the first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the
special features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
31N78W to the straits of Florida near 24N80W. The remainder of
the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores
high pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee
are centered near 29N48W with elongated troughing extending N of
the remnant low to 33N46W and S of the low to 23N50W. Scattered
moderate convection and tstms are from 23N to 31N between 46W
and 51W. No redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during
the next couple of days while the surface low gradually
dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 05:17

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 21.6N 70.6W at 22/0900 UTC, or
about 30 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 6 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110
kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120
nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 300 nm of the center. Maria's eye will move near or just
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas
today. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete
details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is centered near 39.7N 68.7W at
22/0900 UTC, or about 105 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts,
moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and
stable air prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs,
however some scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm E of
Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose is expected to meander well off the
coast of New England for the next several days. Please see the
latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa earlier this morning.
Its axis extends from 15N17W to 04N17W. The wave is in a region of low
vertical wind shear, however abundant Saharan dry air and dust are
in the northern and central wave environment, thus supporting lack
of convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N42W to 06N44W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW
show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a
lack of convection at this time. The exception is from 18N to 20N
between 40W and 44W where numerous moderate and scattered tstms
are being supported by shallow moisture and mid-level diffluence.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
10N15W to 08N23W to 06N33W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N33W to 08N39W, then resumes from 10N46W to
10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between
22W and 31W and from 07N to 11N between 46W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S across the
northern Gulf waters and provides E light to gentle flow E of 90W
and ESE light to moderate winds W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from
aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair
weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the
SW Gulf support scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of Campeche
where a surface trough extends from 22N93W to inland S Mexico. No
major changes expected during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola,
however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in
continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection
extends to 13N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished
mainly to moderate with seas to 7 ft. Isolated showers are in the
SW basin S of 16N associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail in the E Caribbean
while light and variable flow is elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward
across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special
features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
31N78W to the straits of Florida near 24N80W. The remainder of
the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores
high pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are
centered near 29N48W with elongated troughing extending N of the
remnant low to 33N46W and S of the low to 23N50W. Scattered
moderate convection and tstms are from 23N to 31N between 46W and
51W. No redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during the
next couple of days while the surface low gradually dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri, 09/22/2017 - 01:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 21.0N 70.2W at 22/0300 UTC, or
about 75 nm NNE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, or about 60
nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 7 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with
gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of
the center except. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 240 nm of the center, except 300 nm SE quadrant. Maria's
eye will gradually move away from the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic and then move near or just east of the Turks
and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Please see
the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Jose centered near 39.5N 68.4W at 22/0300 UTC, or
about 120 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving W at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and stable air prevails
near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some scattered
moderate convection is within 135 nm E of Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose
is forecast to meander well offshore of the coast of southeastern
New England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and
the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N40W to 03N41W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW
show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a
lack of convection at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
11N16W to 07N22W to 06N30W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N30W to 08N38W, then resumes from 09N42W to
11N50W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to
08N between 26W and 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S-SW across the
Gulf waters and provides ENE light to moderate flow E of 90W and
ESE winds of the same magnitude W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from
aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair
weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the
central Gulf support isolated showers also associated with the
remnants of a surface trough. No major changes expected during the
next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola,
however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in
continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection
extends to 15N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished to
fresh, however seas are up to 10 ft. Scattered to isolated showers
are in the SW basin associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.
Otherwise, mainly moderate trades prevail across the basin which
will persist for the start of the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward
across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special
features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
29N75W to Andros Island in the Bahamas. The remainder of the
basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high
pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are
centered near 22N49W with elongated troughing extending N of the
remnant low to 30N and S of the low to 16N52W. Scattered moderate
convection and tstms are from 22N to 25N between 48W and 51W. No
redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during the next
couple of days while the surface low gradually dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 19:00

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 20.9N 70.0W at 22/0000 UTC, or
about 74 nm NNE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, or about 70
nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 8 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with
gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within
90 nm of the center except within 120 nm in the S quadrant.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the
center except within 300 nm in the SE quadrant. The center of
Maria will continue to remain offshore of the Dominican Republic
tonight, moving near the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern
Bahamas through Friday. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Jose centered near 39.6N 68.1W at 22/0000 UTC, or
about 130 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving W at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and stable air prevails
near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some scattered
moderate convection is between 120 nm and 270 nm in the NW
semicircle of Jose. Tropical storm force winds associated with
Jose extend out far from the center, up to 180 nm in the NW
quadrant. Jose is forecast to continue to lose tropical
characteristics, likely becoming post-tropical by Fri afternoon.
Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending S
of 18N along 41W moving W at around 10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of abundant moisture as depicted by SSMI TPW
imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm E of the
tropical wave axis and within 120 nm W of the tropical wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
10N14W to 06N24W to 06N31W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N31W to 09N39W, then resumes from 09N43W to
10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between
23W and 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure area is centered over the upper
Mississippi Valley, extending a ridge S-SW to along coastal Texas.
A weak surface trough was analyzed in the Gulf of Mexico from
28N85W to 24N89W. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring on the NW
side of the trough. Aloft, a middle to upper level trough extends
from S central Virginia to central Louisiana with isolated
convection across the Florida Panhandle which should diminish with
the arrival of sunset. Elsewhere aloft, W-NW flow prevails around
an upper level anticyclone positioned over southern Mexico. Mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE flow prevails across the basin, along
with 2 to 4 ft seas W of 90W, and 2 ft or less E of 90W. The
surface trough is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Maria remains N of the area N of Hispaniola with
troughing reaching from southern Hispaniola to the S central
Caribbean just N of the coast of Colombia. Very heavy rainfall
resulting in continuous flash flooding remains over Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Aloft, a middle to upper level trough
extends into the area across central Cuba to eastern Honduras with
dry and stable air over the NW Caribbean behind the trough. An
upper level anticyclone is located near the NW coast of Colombia
with anticyclonic flow found elsewhere across the basin.
Mainly moderate trades prevail across the basin which will persist
for the start of the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward
across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special
features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
31N73W to the gulf stream between the NW Bahamas and Florida near
26N80W. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring mainly NW of the
trough axis. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high pressure area centered at
the surface near 36N50W. Aloft, middle to upper level troughing
is present NW of Maria, W of mainly 70W, while upper ridging
extends from N to S to the E of Maria along 63W/64W.

Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are centered near
21N49W with elongated troughing extending N of the remnant low to
30N. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted N of 21N
to the E of the trough to 39W. No redevelopment of the remnants is
anticipated during the next couple of days while the surface low
gradually dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 12:48

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 21/1800 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 20.4N 69.4W or
about 74 nm ENE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt
with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm
of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. The eye of Hurricane
Maria will continue to pass offshore of the northeastern coast of
the Dominican Republic today. Maria should then move near the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and
Friday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 21/1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 139 nm SE of
Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.5N 67.9W, stationary. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from 38N-43N
between 70W-74W. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 180 nm from the center. Cool waters,
dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause Jose to
steadily weaken and lead to post-tropical transition within the
next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N40W to 07N40W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of
moderate low to middle level moisture N of 13N, and abundant
moisture S of 13N, as shown by SSMI TPW imagery. A well defined
surface reflection is also noted. Isolated moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
13N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to 10N49W to
09N56W to 10N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is occurring
off of the coast of Africa from 05N-11N E of 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N87W. Surface
ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico N of 26N. A very small low is
over the central Gulf near 25N88W, depicted by a swirl of low
clouds, and scattered showers within 90 nm of the center.
Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast
of Texas, and over the W Gulf W of 94W. More scattered showers are
over portions of SE florida. Surface winds over most of the Gulf
are only 5-10 kt. The Bay of Campeche has some 15 kt winds. In
the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the SW Gulf
near 21N95W. The base of an upper level trough is over the NE
Gulf. Expect the surface low to dissipate over the next 12 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria is over Atlc waters NE of eastern
Dominican Republic, however tropical storm winds still reach a
portion of NW Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over Puerto Rico, while numerous strong convection
is over the Mona Passage and the Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico
continues to have localized flooding. See the special features
section for further details. Strong winds and high seas associated
with Maria prevail in the NE Caribbean mainly N of 16N. The
eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa
Rica, Panama through Colombia supporting isolated showers and
tstms in the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Of note in the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with
axis from central Cuba near 22N79W to central Honduras near
14N86W. Some scattered showers are Just E of the trough axis due
to upper level diffluence. Expect winds and seas associated with
Maria to gradually diminish through Friday as the cyclone moves
farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for portions of the northern
Dominican Republic while a tropical storm warning is in effect for
Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory. Numerous strong convection is occurring over
the Dominican Republic spreading across the rest of the Island as
Maria continues to move NW over SW N Atlc waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1012 mb low, the
remnants of Lee, is located near 19N48W. A surface trough extends
N from the low to 25N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 21N-25N between 45W-49W. The remainder of the basin remains
under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north
of the area. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low
is centered near 24N49W. Scattered moderate convection is NE of
this center from 27N-31N between 39W-45W due to upper level
diffluence.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 06:55

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 21/1200 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 19.9N 68.7W or
about 82 nm NNW of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 135
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere within 175 nm of the center. The eye of
Hurricane Maria will continue to pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic today. Maria should
then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas tonight and Friday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 21/1200 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 130 nm SE
of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.6N 68.1W, stationary. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from
39N to 44N between 67W and 74W. Jose is expected to meander off
the coast of southeast New England for the next several days.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N39W to 07N38W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear and is in an environment
of moderate moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW
imagery. However, some Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to the
west environment of the wave is evident in enhanced IR imagery
and CIRA LPW imagery. Upper level diffluence support scattered
moderate convection from 07N to 17N between 33W and 44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
12N30W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N51W to
09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is occurring
off of the coast of Africa from 05N to 11N E of 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface low pressure dominate the Gulf SW waters and the Yucatan
Peninsula with a trough extending from 21N92W to southern
Guatemala supporting scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of
Campeche. Fresh winds are associated with this surface trough. In
the SE basin, a 1013 mb low is located near 25N86W, which is
forecast to dissipate during the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
a surface ridge over the SE CONUS extends to the NE Gulf where it
is anchored by a 1016 mb high near 28N88W. An upper level ridge
over the basin and dry air subsidence support fair weather
elsewhere in the basin. Easterly light to moderate winds are
across much of the Gulf. Expect little change over the next 48
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria is over Atlc waters NE of eastern
Dominican Republic, however tropical storm winds still reach a
portion of NW Puerto Rico. Scattered heavy showers and tstms
continue over the western half of Puerto Rico while numerous
heavy showers are across the Mona Passage and the eastern half
of the Dominican Republic. Showers over Puerto Rico are likely
to continue through this evening potentially generating flash
floods.
See the special features section for further details. Strong
winds and high seas associated with Maria prevail in the NE
Caribbean mainly N of 16N. The eastern extent of the Pacific
monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica, Panama through
Colombia supporting isolated showers and tstms in the SW
Caribbean S of 15N W of 79W. Winds and seas associated with
Maria will gradually diminish through early Friday as the
cyclone moves farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern Dominican Republic
while a tropical storm warning is along the southern region. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Numerous strong convection is occuring over the E Dominican
Republic spreading across the rest of the Island as Maria
continuen to move NW over SW N Atlc waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1011 mb low - the
remnants of Lee - is located near 19N48W. No significant deep
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a low
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
30N45W to 23N48W, which is being supported by an upper-level
trough. Scattered showers and tstms are observed from 21N to 31N
between 40W and 49W. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the
area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Thu, 09/21/2017 - 01:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 21/0300 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 19.2N 67.9W or
about 45 nm NE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt, Category 2. Numerous strong convection is
within 105 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. The
core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from Puerto
Rico during the next several hours, and then pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday. Maria
should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 21/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 135 nm SE of
Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.5N 68.2W, moving east-northeast
at 5 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from
40N to 43N between 68W and 74W. On the forecast track, the center
of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New
England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N37W to 06N37W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear and is in an environment
of moderate moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW
imagery. However, some Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to the
west environment of the wave is evident in enhanced IR imagery and
CIRA LPW imagery. Upper level diffluence support scattered
moderate convection from 08N to 17N between 30W and 40W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
12N30W to 09N43W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N56W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is occurring scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring off of the coast of Africa from 05N
to 11N E of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface low pressure dominate the Gulf SW waters and the Yucatan
Peninsula where a trough extends from 21N88W to southern
Guatemala. Scatterometer data show fresh winds off the W Yucatan
Peninsula coast associated with this surface trough. In the SE
basin, a 1014 mb low pressure is located near 25N85W, which is
forecast to dissipate during the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
a surface ridge over the SE CONUS extends to the NE Gulf where it
is anchored by a 1017 mb high near 29N87W. An upper level ridge
over the basin and dry air subsidence support fair weather basin-
wide. Winds are weak and easterly across much of the Gulf
tonight. Expect little change over the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Category 2 Hurricane Maria continues to gradually
move away from Puerto Rico, however tropical storm conditions
prevail across the western half of the Island along with heavy
showers that will continue to generate flash floods possibly
through Friday. Similar conditions are being experienced by the
Dominican Republic as the eye of Maria is moving across NE
adjacent waters. See the special features section for further
details. Strong winds and high seas associated with Maria prevail
in the NE Caribbean mainly N of 17N. The eastern extent of the
Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica through Colombia
supporting isolated showers and tstms in the SW Caribbean S of 15N
W of 79W. Winds and seas associated with Maria will gradually
diminish through early Friday as the cyclone moves farther NW over
the SW N Atlc waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern Dominican Republic
while a tropical storm warning is along the southern region. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E
Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the entire
island to be under rainbands over the the next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1010 mb low - the
remnants of Lee - is located near 18N47W. No significant deep
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a low
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
30N45W to 23N48W to the remnants of Lee, which is being supported
by an upper-level trough. Scattered showers and tstms are
observed from 22N to 31N between 40W and 49W. The remainder of the
basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high
centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 09/20/2017 - 19:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 21/0000 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 18.9N 67.5W or
about 48 nm ENE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 11 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt, Category 2. Numerous strong convection is
within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. On
the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to
move away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this
evening. The core will then pass offshore of the northeastern
coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday and then
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas
Thursday night and Friday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 21/0000 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 125 nm SSE
of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.4N 68.6W, moving northeast
at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring in the NW quadrant of the storm
from 39N-44N between 67W-73W. On the forecast track, the center
of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New
England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the East Atlantic with axis near 35W from
about 06N to 21N, moving westward at about 20 kt. The wave is
well-defined in both the SUNY-Albany 700 mb trough diagnostics
as well as a maxima in the total precipitable water imagery on
the east side of the wave axis. The wave also has a surface
trough as observed by the earlier ASCAT scatterometer data.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
between 10N and 15N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over Central America with the axis near 88W
from about 10N to 20N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. The
wave is apparent in the SUNY-Albany 700 mb trough diagnostics,
but not distinguishable in the total precipitable water imagery.
There may be a surface trough associated with the wave as well,
though it is difficult to disentangle it from the diurnal trough
setting up over the Yucatan. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection has been developing in the last few hours over
Central America south of 17N within 180 nm of the axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
12N27W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 10N32W. The ITCZ
breaks at the tropical wave near 35W and then starts again at
08N39W to 08N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is occurring within
60 nm of the ITCZ betwen 38W and 43W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring off of the coast of
Guinea north of 08N east of 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak trough of low pressure extends from the central Florida
peninsula near 27N82W to 26N87W. Isolated showers are occurring
within 60 nm of the trough. Elsewhere no significant convection
is occurring. Winds are weak and easterly across the Gulf this
evening. Expect little change over the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

the core of dangerout Hurricane maria is gradually moving away
from Puerto Rico. Conditions are now deteriorating over eastern
Dominican Republic. See the special features section for further
details. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is
over Costa Rica and Panama. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Scatterometer
data shows mainly light to gentle trade winds west of 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata. A tropical storm warning is in
effect for Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the
northern border with Haiti as well as from west of Cabo Engano
to Punta Palenque. A hurricane watch is in effect for Dominican
Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano. A dangerous storm surge
accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water
levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide levels in the
hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic
and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E
Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the
entire island to be under rainbands over the the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1008 mb low - the
remnants of Lee - is located near 18N47W. No significant deep
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a Low
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
31N46W to 23N47W in association with an upper-level trough.
Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection is observed
within 300 nm east of the trough. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores
high centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 09/20/2017 - 13:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/1800 UTC, major Hurricane Maria is located near 18.4N 66.9W
or about 13 nm W of Arecibo, Puerto Rico. The present movement of
Maria is northwest at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts
to 120 kt, Category 3. Numerous strong convection is within 120
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. Maria is moving across
Puerto Rico today, and will pass just north of the northeast coast
of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 121 nm SSE
of Nantucket Massachusetts near 39.2N 69.3W, moving northeast at 7
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate
convection lays on the NW quadrant of the storm from 38N-42N
between 70W-73W. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 178 nm from the center. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING...

A 1007 mb low in the central Atlc, the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Lee, is located near 18N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the NE quadrant from 17N-25N between 42W-45W
Gale-force winds ore over the NE quadrant of the low...within 270
nm of the center. An increase in the organization of the deep
convection would result in the regeneration of Lee as it moves
northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. There is a medium
chance for tropical cyclone re-development within the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
21N34W to 06N33W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of
moderate low to middle level moisture N of 13N, and abundant
moisture S of 13N, as shown by SSMI TPW imagery. A well defined
surface reflection is also noted. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-13N between 28W-40W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
20N85W to 07N88W, moving west at 20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery
indicates the presence of some dry air intrusion in the wave
environment. That along with strong subsidence aloft, and strong
vertical wind shear, produces a lack of convection over the NW
Caribbean.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
12N28W to 08N40W to 10N45W to 09N49W. The ITCZ extends from
09N49W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N87W.
10-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf. Lightning
detection imagery indicates thunderstorms over the NW Gulf, SE
Texas, and SW Louisiana. The northern extent of a tropical wave is
over the the Bay of Campeche, S of 20N95W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of this wave. the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has
mostly fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered over the W Gulf near 22N95W. Expect little change over
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eye of category 4 Hurricane Maria has recently moved off the
NW coast of Puerto Rico. Maria is forecast to pass just north of
the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and
Thursday. See the special features section for further details.
The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa
Rica and Panama. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Scatterometer data shows mainly
light to gentle trade winds west of 75W. Of note in the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with
axis from central Cuba near 22N89W to central Honduras near
14N87W. Some scattered showers are Just E of the trough axis due
to upper level diffluence.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning is in effect for the NE Dominican Republic. A
tropical storm warning is in effect for the N coast of Haiti. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E
Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the entire
island to be under feeder bands over the the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. There is a gale warning
associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Lee along
with scattered moderate convection. See above. A surface trough
over the central Atlantic extends from 31N44W to 25N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 120 nm east of the trough
north of 25N. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a broad surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 09/20/2017 - 07:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/1200 UTC, major Hurricane Maria is located near 18.2N
66.1W or about 13 nm SSW of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 921 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt
with gusts to 160 kt, a Category 4. Numerous strong convection
is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere within 175 nm of the center. Maria is moving across
Puerto Rico today, and will pass just north of the northeast
coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Please see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/1200 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 143 nm
south of Nantucket Massachusetts near 38.8N 70.2W, moving
northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 70 kt.
Scattered moderate convection lays on the NW quadrant of the
storm from 38N to 41N between 70W and 75W. The center of Jose is
expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING...

A 1008 mb low in the central Atlc, or the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Lee, are located near 18N46W. Showers and
thunderstorms have significantly decreased near the low pressure
area the last couple of hours. Scattered moderate convection and
tstms are in the NE quadrant of the low center from 17N to 25N
between 40W and 46W. Gale-force winds prevails in the NE quadrant
of the low...within 270 nm of the center. An increase in the
organization of the deep convection would result in the
regeneration of Lee as it moves northward over the central
Atlantic Ocean. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone re-
development within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 18N27W
to 06N27W, moving west at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show dry air
has increased in the wave environment the last couple of hours
due to intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust. This is limiting
the convection to scattered moderate SW of the wave axis from
05N to 12N between 28W and 32W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
20N85W to 07N88W, moving west at 20 kt. CIRA TPW imagery
indicates the presence of dry air in the wave environment that
along with strong subsidence from aloft, and strong vertical wind
shear support lack of convection in the far NW Caribbean W of
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
12N16W to 11N28W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to
09N48W to 09N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N
between 32W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin. Ridging aloft
over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence continue to
support clear skies, except for scattered showers and tstms over
the Bay of Campeche due to proximity of a tropical wave that
already moved over the EPAC waters S of Mexico. Winds will shift
from SE to E Thursday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 4 Hurricane Maria is moving across Puerto Rico this
morning. The eye of Maria is forecast to exit Puerto Rico by the
north during the afternoon hours, and pass just north of the
northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
See the special features section for further details. Low level
wind convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean
is producing a large area of isolated showers and tstms in the SW
Caribbean from S of 15N W of 77W. Scatterometer data shows mainly
light to gentle trade winds west of 71W, with the remainder of
the basin N of 12N experiencing cyclonic winds associated with
Hurricane Maria.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are in the Mona Passage and E Dominican
Republic adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across
the island. However, weather conditions will deteriorate across
the Island this morning associated with the rainbands of
Hurricane Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will
increase as the system moves NW very close of the Island on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. There is a gale warning
associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Lee along
with scattered moderate convection. See gale warning section
above. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
32N41W to 30N42W to 25N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed east of the trough north of 23N between 38W-44W. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad
surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 09/20/2017 - 01:06

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/0600 UTC, major Hurricane Maria was located near 17.6N 65.1W
or about 15 nm west-southwest of Saint Croix, and 75 nm southeast
of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The present movement of Maria is west-
northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 910
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, a
Category 5. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the
center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 180 nm
of the center. The eye of Maria will cross Puerto Rico today
Wednesday, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Please see the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

At 20/0600 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose was located about 175 nm
south of Nantucket Massachusetts near 38.2N 70.5W, moving
northeast at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Scattered moderate convection lays on the NW quadrant of the storm
from 37N to 41N between 70W and 73W. The center of Jose is
expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING...

A 1008 mb low in the central Atlc, or the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Lee, are located near 17N44W. Showers and
thunderstorms have increased near the low pressure area and gale-
force winds are already in the E quadrant of the low...within 75
nm of the center. Numerous moderate/isolated strong convection is
mainly to the north of the low from 16N to 20N between 41W and
45W. An increase in the organization of the deep convection would
result in the regeneration of Lee as it moves northward over the
central Atlantic Ocean. There is a medium chance for tropical
cyclone re-development within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 18N25W
to 06N26W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is mainly within a
region of abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA
TPW imagery. However, enhanced IR imagery show intrusion of Saharan
dry air and dust to the W environment of the wave. This is
limiting the convection to scattered moderate from 07N to 14N
between 24W and 30W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N85W to 09N86W, moving west at 20 kt. CIRA TPW
imagery indicates the presence of dry air in the wave environment
that along with strong subsidence from aloft, and strong vertical
wind shear support lack of convection in the far NW Caribbean W of
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
13N17W to 10N27W to 07N34W. The ITCZ extends from 07N34W to 08N43W
to 08N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between
30W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin with the
exception of moderate locally fresh SE winds within 90 nm of the
coast of Texas. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry
air subsidence continue to support clear skies, except for
scattered showers and tstms over the E Bay of Campeche associated
with the proximity of a tropical wave that already moved over the
EPAC waters S of Mexico. Winds will shift from SE to E Thursday
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 Hurricane Maria is moving across the northeast
Caribbean waters and is expected to reach southeastern Puerto Rico
this morning. The eye of Maria then will cross Puerto Rico during
the day, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the
Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. See the special
features section for further details. Low level wind convergence
east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is producing a
large area of scattered showers and isolated tstms in the SW
Caribbean from S of 15N W of 77W. Expect the wave to continue
moving west with convection mainly east-southeast of the wave
axis. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle trade winds
west of 71W, with the remainder of the basin N of 15N experiencing
cyclonic winds associated with Hurricane Maria. Fresh to locally
strong winds are off the Nicaragua coast associated with the
aforementioned convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage and southern Haiti
adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across the island.
Weather conditions will deteriorate across the Island starting
Wed morning associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane
Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will increase as
the system moves WNW very close of the Island on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and recently downgraded Tropical Storm Jose.
There is a gale warning associated with the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Lee along with strong convection. See gale
warning section above. A surface trough over the central Atlantic
extends from 32N41W to 30N42W to 25N44W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed east of the trough north of 23N between
38W-44W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of
a broad surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 09/19/2017 - 19:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Updated Hurricane Information

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/0000 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located near 17.0N 64.2W or
about 50 nm southeast of Saint Croix, moving west-northwest at 9
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 150 kt with gusts to 180 kt, a Category 5.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the
center. The tiny eye of Maria will approach St. Croix in the US
Virgin Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/0000 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 230 nm south-
southwest of Nantucket Massachusetts near 37.5N 71.2W, moving
north-northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80
kt. Convection associated with Jose is well north of the
discussion area. The center of Jose is expected to remain well
offshore and pass well to the east of the northeast U.S. coast
through Thursday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave west of Africa extends from 19N21W to 07N25W,
and is moving west at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of
abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave
as it interacts with the convergence zone is from 07N-13N
between 21W-25W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N82W to 11N85W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA
TPW imagery indicates extensive dry air in the northern wave
environment. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support
isolated convection south of 15N between 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging with light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail in the basin around a 1017 mb high centered near 28N88W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche and west of
the Yucatan peninsula are associated with the northern part of a
tropical wave in EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf
along with dry air subsidence will continue to support fair
weather conditions through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 major Hurricane Maria is moving across the northeast
Caribbean waters, and will approach St. Croix in the US Virgin
Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday. See the
special features section for further details. Low level wind
convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is
producing a large area of moderate to strong convection in the
SW Caribbean from 10N-14N between 79W-82W. Expect the wave to
continue moving west with convection mainly east-southeast of
the wave axis. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle
trade winds west of 70W, with the remainder of the basin
experiencing cyclonic winds associated with Hurricane Maria.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across the
western past of the Dominican Republic. Weather conditions will
deteriorate significantly across the island Wednesday from the
outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. The eye of Maria is forecast
to move northwest, passing over or very close to the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday with destructive winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Jose. The remnant circulation of T.D. Lee
is located near 17N45W and are expected to move northwest during
the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 200 nm east and northeast of the low center. A surface
trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N41W to 29N42W
to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the
trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 09/19/2017 - 18:10

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/2100 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located near 16.8N 64.0W or
about 70 nm southeast of Saint Croix, moving west-northwest at 9
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, a Category 5.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the
center. The tiny eye of Maria will approach St. Croix in the US
Virgin Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 19/2100 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 235 nm east-
northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina near 37.2N 71.3W,
moving north-northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts
to 80 kt. Convection associated with Jose is well north of the
discussion area. The center of Jose is expected to remain well
offshore and pass well to the east of the northeast U.S. coast
through Thursday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave west of Africa extends from 19N21W to 07N25W,
and is moving west at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of
abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave
as it interacts with the convergence zone is from 07N-13N
between 21W-25W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N82W to 11N85W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA
TPW imagery indicates extensive dry air in the northern wave
environment. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support
isolated convection south of 15N between 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging with light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail in the basin around a 1017 mb high centered near 28N88W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche and west of
the Yucatan peninsula are associated with the northern part of a
tropical wave in EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf
along with dry air subsidence will continue to support fair
weather conditions through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 major Hurricane Maria is moving across the northeast
Caribbean waters, and will approach St. Croix in the US Virgin
Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday. See the
special features section for further details. Low level wind
convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is
producing a large area of moderate to strong convection in the
SW Caribbean from 10N-14N between 79W-82W. Expect the wave to
continue moving west with convection mainly east-southeast of
the wave axis. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle
trade winds west of 70W, with the remainder of the basin
experiencing cyclonic winds associated with Hurricane Maria.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across the
western past of the Dominican Republic. Weather conditions will
deteriorate significantly across the island Wednesday from the
outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. The eye of Maria is forecast
to move northwest, passing over or very close to the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday with destructive winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Jose. The remnant circulation of T.D. Lee
is located near 17N45W and are expected to move northwest during
the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 200 nm east and northeast of the low center. A surface
trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N41W to 29N42W
to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the
trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 09/19/2017 - 12:23

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/1500 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is located near 16.3N
63.1W or about 200 nm west of Guadeloupe, moving west-northwest
at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. SCattered
to numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center in
all quadrants and from 12N-20N between 58W-66W. The eye of Maria
will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 19/1500 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 200 nm east-
northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 36.5N 71.7W,
moving north at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
976 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 36N-41N between 70W-74W.
The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the
Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New
Jersey coast on Wednesday, and continue offshore of southeastern
Massachusetts by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the west coast of Africa earlier this
morning. Its axis extends from 19N18W to 07N18W. The wave is in a
region of abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA
LPW and TPW imagery. This combined with upper-level diffluent
flow supports scattered moderate convection along the southern
portion of the wave south of 13N and west of the wave's axis,
mostly along the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N81W to 09N84W, moving west at about 15 kt. CIRA LPW
imagery at the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the
northern wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and diffluent
flow aloft support scattered moderate convection south of 15N
between 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin with light and
variable winds over most of the area with the exception of
moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of the coast of
Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche.
Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are associated with the
northern region of a tropical wave moving over EPAC waters.
Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence
continue to support clear skies. This pattern will continue
through the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Major Hurricane Maria is moving in the vicinity of the Leeward
Islands and NE Caribbean waters. The eye of Maria will continue to
move over the northeastern Caribbean today, approaching the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see special
features for further details. The other area of weather in the
basin is related to a tropical wave described in the section
above. Light to gentle trades prevail west of 70W, as noted in
scatterometer data. Expect for the tropical wave to continue
moving west with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair weather prevails across the island. Weather
conditions will deteriorate across starting Wednesday morning
associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. This
activity will increase as the system moves west-northwest very
close of the island on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Jose. The remnants
of T.D. Lee are located near 16N45W and are forecast to move
northwest during the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection
is within 200 nm over the northeast quadrant of the low center. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic extending from 32N41W
to 26N46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of this
trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue, 09/19/2017 - 07:02

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/1200 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is located near 16.2N
62.8W or about 74 nm W of Guadeloupe, moving WNW at 8 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Numerous strong
convection and tstms are within 120 nm of the center in all
quadrants and from 09N to 16N between 57W and 63W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 57W and
66W. The eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
tonight and Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 19/1200 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 204 nm ENE of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 36.3N 71.6W, moving N at 8 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 36N to 39N between 68W and 73W. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere from 30N to 40N between 62W and
76W. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the
Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New
Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern
Massachusetts by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the W coast of Africa earlier this
morning. Its axis extends from 19N16W to 07N17W. The wave is in a
region of low vertical wind shear, and abundant low to middle
level moisture as shown by CIRA LPW and TPW imagery. Upper level
diffluent flow supports scattered moderate convection from 06N to
13N between 14W and 22W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N79W to 08N83W, moving west at about 15 kt. The wave is in
a region of moderate vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery at
the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the northern
wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and diffluent flow
aloft support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 18N between
78W and 84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
13N17W to 07N30W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W and
continues along 08N45W to 08N53W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of
the coast of Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of
Campeche. Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are
associated with the northern region of a tropical wave moving
over EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with
dry air subsidence continue to support clear skies, except for
scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche associated with the
tropical wave. Surface high pressure will dominate across the
basin through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Major Hurricane Maria is moving across the Leeward Islands and NE
Caribbean waters. The eye of Maria will continue to move over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see special
features for further details. The remaining weather in the basin
is associated with a tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean
waters. See the tropical waves section for more information.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient due to Hurricanes Maria
and Jose allow for light to gentle trades W of 67W. Expect for
the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage and southern Haiti
adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across the island.
Weather conditions will deteriorate across the Island starting
Wed morning associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane
Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will increase as
the system moves WNW very close of the Island on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Jose. The remnants
of T.D. Lee are located near 15N43W and are forecast to move NW
during the next 24 hours. Numerous strong convection and
scattered tstms are within 150 nm NE quadrant of the low center.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 23N
between 37W and 44W. A surface trough is over the central Atlc
extending from 30N40W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection
is E of this trough N of 23N between 33W and 40W. The remainder
of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface
ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

Pages