Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 13:20
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 11/05/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2017/ ...Synopsis... The quasi-zonal deep-layer flow present over much of the CONUS will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge developing in the Pacific Northwest. This flow pattern should remain split, with a southern corridor of enhanced mid-level winds of 50-60 kt anchored over portions of NM. At the surface, weak low pressure should develop across portions of the southern High Plains, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Warm/breezy conditions should develop once again in the afternoon, associated with diurnal heating/vertical mixing processes. Surface temperature should warm into mid 60s to mid 70s, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, occurring during peak heating. Meanwhile, RH values should approach 20% in the presence of dry fuels, leading to the development elevated fire-weather conditions. Some isolated areas of critical fire-weather conditions may also develop, but such conditions are currently forecast to remain too localized/transient to warrant the inclusion of any critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 13:20
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 11/05/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2017/ ...Synopsis... The quasi-zonal deep-layer flow present over much of the CONUS will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge developing in the Pacific Northwest. This flow pattern should remain split, with a southern corridor of enhanced mid-level winds of 50-60 kt anchored over portions of NM. At the surface, weak low pressure should develop across portions of the southern High Plains, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Warm/breezy conditions should develop once again in the afternoon, associated with diurnal heating/vertical mixing processes. Surface temperature should warm into mid 60s to mid 70s, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, occurring during peak heating. Meanwhile, RH values should approach 20% in the presence of dry fuels, leading to the development elevated fire-weather conditions. Some isolated areas of critical fire-weather conditions may also develop, but such conditions are currently forecast to remain too localized/transient to warrant the inclusion of any critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 11:41

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051741 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1129 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Corrected to add Special Features Section...

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A middle to upper level short-wave trough between 45W and 55W
supports a 1012 mb low near 29N51W and an associated trough that
extends from the low to 23N50W. The well-defined low pressure
system is located about 695 nm east-southeast of Bermuda where
it is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms primarily
N of 23N between 45W and 52W. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for the development of a
tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days while
the low moves northward to north-northeastward. Conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for development by Thursday when
the low will be moving over the cold waters of the far north
Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development within the next 48 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N20W to 06N40W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-09N E of 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N86W
continues to cover the entire basin and provides for light to
gentle NE to E flow E of 90W, except for moderate winds in the
Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Latest scatterometer
data show gentle to moderate SSE winds W of 90W. The ridge is
forecast remain nearly stationary across the NNE Gulf waters
through Wednesday night when a cold front is expected to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continue to be a surface trough
associated with a 1013 mb low located within 90 nm off the coast
of E Honduras. This area of low pressure prevails underneath a
region of middle to upper level diffluence, which along with
shallow moisture support scattered heavy showers and tstms W of
Jamaica from 14N-21N between 78W-82W and within 90 nm off the
coast of E Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The EPAC monsoon
trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica to a 1011 mb low off
the NW coast of Colombia near 10N75W and generate scattered
showers and tstms to the SW Caribbean S of 12N W of 75W. Middle
level diffluent flow between a small ridge N of Puerto Rico and
a broad ridge over the central tropical Atlc support scattered
showers and tstms across most of the Leeward Islands and
isolated showers elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles. Patches of
shallow moisture move across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, thus
supporting isolated showers there. The low is forecast to
dissipate by Monday morning, however showers will continue in
the NW basin. No major changes expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring this afternoon due to patches of
shallow moisture moving across the northern Caribbean waters.
However, dry air subsidence and strong shear will hinder the
development of deep convection through Monday night. A middle to
upper level trough will then move over the Island from the W,
resulting in the development of showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature in the basin is an area of low pressure located
in the northern-central Atlc forecast waters. See the special
features section for further details. A middle to upper level
trough between 70W and 80W with upper level base over northern
Central America continue to support a 1015 mb low centered E of
the Bahamas near 27N74W with associated trough extending from
31N74W to the low to 24N74W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb
high centered NE of the Azores Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 10:44
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2017 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z Cold front moving through the southern Plains has begun to encroach upon the northern and eastern extent of the ongoing elevated area. Given low stratus, falling temperatures, and increasing relative-humidity to the north of this front, have trimmed the elevated fire-weather area to the south and west across the northern Texas Panhandle. Even with this trimming, areas along the northeast extent of the elevated will only see a few more hours of elevated conditions before the front moves through the area decreasing/ending the threat. Additionally, given ERCs in the 50-75 percentile across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle, have expanded the elevated here. Lastly, strong, gusty winds may occur across portions of the Southwest. Average to slightly below average temperatures should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat and thus no highlights will be added. ..Marsh.. 11/05/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2017/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow is present across much of the CONUS as the on-shoring and amplifying trough in the Pacific Northwest spreads eastward into portions of the Northern Rockies. Consequently, a split mid-level flow pattern will develop, with 50-60 kt flow forming over portions of NM, southern CO, and the TX/OK panhandles. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into OK and the TX Panhandle, with warm/breezy southwesterly downslope winds developing west of the front. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Surface temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s and winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25-30 mph, will develop during the afternoon hours, as diurnal heating allows the aforementioned strong mid-level winds to mix to the surface. As these processes occur, RH values should approach 20% while fine fuels in the region remain dry and continue to transition to a dormant state. Thus, the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions has been designated in an area where confidence in exceeding the elevated thresholds is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 10:44
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2017 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z Cold front moving through the southern Plains has begun to encroach upon the northern and eastern extent of the ongoing elevated area. Given low stratus, falling temperatures, and increasing relative-humidity to the north of this front, have trimmed the elevated fire-weather area to the south and west across the northern Texas Panhandle. Even with this trimming, areas along the northeast extent of the elevated will only see a few more hours of elevated conditions before the front moves through the area decreasing/ending the threat. Additionally, given ERCs in the 50-75 percentile across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle, have expanded the elevated here. Lastly, strong, gusty winds may occur across portions of the Southwest. Average to slightly below average temperatures should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat and thus no highlights will be added. ..Marsh.. 11/05/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2017/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow is present across much of the CONUS as the on-shoring and amplifying trough in the Pacific Northwest spreads eastward into portions of the Northern Rockies. Consequently, a split mid-level flow pattern will develop, with 50-60 kt flow forming over portions of NM, southern CO, and the TX/OK panhandles. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into OK and the TX Panhandle, with warm/breezy southwesterly downslope winds developing west of the front. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Surface temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s and winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25-30 mph, will develop during the afternoon hours, as diurnal heating allows the aforementioned strong mid-level winds to mix to the surface. As these processes occur, RH values should approach 20% while fine fuels in the region remain dry and continue to transition to a dormant state. Thus, the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions has been designated in an area where confidence in exceeding the elevated thresholds is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 10:30

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051629
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1129 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N20W to 06N40W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-09N E of 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N86W
continues to cover the entire basin and provides for light to
gentle NE to E flow E of 90W, except for moderate winds in the
Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Latest scatterometer
data show gentle to moderate SSE winds W of 90W. The ridge is
forecast remain nearly stationary across the NNE Gulf waters
through Wednesday night when a cold front is expected to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continue to be a surface trough
associated with a 1013 mb low located within 90 nm off the
coast of E Honduras. This area of low pressure prevails underneath
a region of middle to upper level diffluence, which along with
shallow moisture support scattered heavy showers and tstms W of
Jamaica from 14N-21N between 78W-82W and within 90 nm off the
coast of E Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The EPAC monsoon
trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica to a 1011 mb low off
the NW coast of Colombia near 10N75W and generate scattered
showers and tstms to the SW Caribbean S of 12N W of 75W. Middle
level diffluent flow between a small ridge N of Puerto Rico and a
broad ridge over the central tropical Atlc support scattered
showers and tstms across most of the Leeward Islands and isolated
showers elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles. Patches of shallow
moisture move across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, thus supporting
isolated showers there. The low is forecast to dissipate by Monday
morning, however showers will continue in the NW basin. No major
changes expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring this afternoon due to patches of
shallow moisture moving across the northern Caribbean waters.
However, dry air subsidence and strong shear will hinder the
development of deep convection through Monday night. A middle to
upper level trough will then move over the Island from the W,
resulting in the development of showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough between 70W and 80W with upper
level base over northern Central America continue to support a
1015 mb low centered E of the Bahamas near 27N74W with associated
trough extending from 31N74W to the low to 24N74W. In the norther-central
Atlc, a middle to upper level short-wave trough between 45W and
55W supports a 1012 mb low near 29N51W and an associated trough
that extends from the low to 23N50W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring primarily N of 23N between 45W and 52W.
The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high centered NE of the
Azores Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 04:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
505 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N20W to 06N30W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-09N between 10W-44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 10N-18N between 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N87W
continues to prevail across the entire basin this morning. Latest
scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
throughout. The ridge is expected to move little and remain
nearly stationary across the NE Gulf waters through Wednesday.
Moderate to occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast
across western portions through Wednesday when the next front is
expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast Wednesday
late afternoon into the early evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from 13N82W into a 1010 mb low near
16N82W to 20N81W and continues to provide focus for widely
scattered showers and tstms occurring from 11N-20N between 77W-
85W. The monsoon trough axis also extends from northern Colombia
along 10N to Costa Rica with widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms occurring S of 11N between 74W-84W. Farther
east...shallow isolated showers are occurring primarily E of
70W...including the Mona Passage...Puerto Rico...and across many
of the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are
expected to persist through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers linger across the island this morning...however
overall the pattern is expected to remain fairly tranquil the next
few days with west-southwesterly flow aloft and gentle to
moderate trades at the surface.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave
trough with axis extending from 31N74W to 23N80W to a base over
Central America near 15N90W. This troughing supports a 1012 mb
low centered E of the Bahamas near 26N75W and a surface trough
extending N-NW to 32N79W. Low-level moisture convergence in the
vicinity of the trough axis and middle to upper level divergence
is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms mostly E of
the trough axis from 25N-32N between 69W-77W. Across the central
Atlc...a middle to upper level shortwave is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 27N51W. This shortwave supports a 1014
mb low centered near 28N52W with scattered showers and isolated
tstms occurring from 22N-34N between 44W-53W. The remainder of
the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1033 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 43N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 01:59
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2017 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... The quasi-zonal deep-layer flow present over much of the CONUS will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge developing in the Pacific Northwest. This flow pattern should remain split, with a southern corridor of enhanced mid-level winds of 50-60 kt anchored over portions of NM. At the surface, weak low pressure should develop across portions of the southern High Plains, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Warm/breezy conditions should develop once again in the afternoon, associated with diurnal heating/vertical mixing processes. Surface temperature should warm into mid 60s to mid 70s, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, occurring during peak heating. Meanwhile, RH values should approach 20% in the presence of dry fuels, leading to the development elevated fire-weather conditions. Some isolated areas of critical fire-weather conditions may also develop, but such conditions are currently forecast to remain too localized/transient to warrant the inclusion of any critical areas at this time. ..Karstens.. 11/05/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 01:59
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2017 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... The quasi-zonal deep-layer flow present over much of the CONUS will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge developing in the Pacific Northwest. This flow pattern should remain split, with a southern corridor of enhanced mid-level winds of 50-60 kt anchored over portions of NM. At the surface, weak low pressure should develop across portions of the southern High Plains, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Warm/breezy conditions should develop once again in the afternoon, associated with diurnal heating/vertical mixing processes. Surface temperature should warm into mid 60s to mid 70s, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, occurring during peak heating. Meanwhile, RH values should approach 20% in the presence of dry fuels, leading to the development elevated fire-weather conditions. Some isolated areas of critical fire-weather conditions may also develop, but such conditions are currently forecast to remain too localized/transient to warrant the inclusion of any critical areas at this time. ..Karstens.. 11/05/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 01:40
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2017 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow is present across much of the CONUS as the on-shoring and amplifying trough in the Pacific Northwest spreads eastward into portions of the Northern Rockies. Consequently, a split mid-level flow pattern will develop, with 50-60 kt flow forming over portions of NM, southern CO, and the TX/OK panhandles. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into OK and the TX Panhandle, with warm/breezy southwesterly downslope winds developing west of the front. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Surface temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s and winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25-30 mph, will develop during the afternoon hours, as diurnal heating allows the aforementioned strong mid-level winds to mix to the surface. As these processes occur, RH values should approach 20% while fine fuels in the region remain dry and continue to transition to a dormant state. Thus, the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions has been designated in an area where confidence in exceeding the elevated thresholds is greatest. ..Karstens.. 11/05/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 23:45

000
AXNT20 KNHC 050444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 AM EDT Sun Nov 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
05N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N25W to 06N38W to 07N49W. A surface trough is analyzed at the
western extent of the ITCZ axis from 08N46W to 17N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 09W-15W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 20W-
43W...and from 10N-17N between 43W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 30N87W
continues to prevail across the entire basin this evening. Latest
scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
throughout. The ridge is expected to move little and remain nearly
stationary across the NE Gulf waters through Wednesday. Moderate
to occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast across
western portions through Wednesday when the next front is expected
to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast Wednesday late
afternoon into the early evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from northern Nicaragua into a 1010 mb
low near 18N84W to 21N82W and continues to provide focus for
widely scattered showers and tstms occurring from 12N-21N between
77W-86W. The monsoon trough axis also extends from northern
Colombia along 11N/12N to southern Nicaragua with scattered
showers and isolated tstms occurring S of 12N between 76W-86W.
Farther east...shallow isolated showers are occurring primarily E
of 70W...including the Mona Passage...Puerto Rico...and across
many of the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise...gentle to moderate
trades are expected to persist through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers linger across the island this evening...however
overall the pattern is expected to remain fairly tranquil the
next few days with west-southwesterly flow aloft and gentle to
moderate trades at the surface.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave
trough with axis extending from 32N75W to 23N81W to a base over
Guatemala near 15N90W. This troughing supports a 1012 mb low
centered E of the Bahamas near 26N75W and a surface trough
extending N-NW to 31N78W and S-SE to 23N74W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring mostly E of the trough axis from
22N-30N between 70W-78W. Across the central Atlc...a middle to
upper level trough extends from 28N54W to 21N46W. This troughing
continues to support a 1012 mb low centered near 28N51W with
scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from 25N-33N
between 46W-53W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered
N-NE of the Azores near 44N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 18:47

000
AXNT20 KNHC 042346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
06N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N22W to
05N51W. A surface trough is analyzed north of the ITCZ from
15N46W to 07N46W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ
between 20W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 29N88W
prevails across the entire basin providing gentle to moderate
anticyclonic across the area. The center of high pressure is
forecast to stall through Tuesday night then it will dissipate
ahead of the next cold front to come off the coast of Texas by
early Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a surface trough west of Jamaica
and extending to southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the trough and between 78W-85W.
Dry/stable air prevails elsewhere, thus supporting fair weather.
Isolated passing showers are possible in Puerto Rico and the
Windward Islands. Gentle to moderate trades are prevailing and expected
to persist through early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air subsidence will hinder the development of convection
through Monday night when a middle to upper-level trough will
move over the island from the west, thus supporting lifting of
warm moist air and the development of showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic east of
the Bahamas near 26N75W. A surface trough extends from the low to
31N77W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough/low. To the
east, another 1013 mb surface low is located near 27N52W. A
surface trough extends from 30N51W to the low to 23N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed between 46W-54W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 12:55

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to
06N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N21W to 05N40W to 07N52W. A surface trough is analyzed N of the
ITCZ axis from 15N44W to 06N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N-09N between 02W-24W, from 01N-10N between 30W-41W and
from 12N-16N between 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N88W
prevails across the entire basin providing gentle to moderate NE
flow E of 90W and SSE flow elsewhere. The center of high pressure
is forecast to stall through Tuesday night then it will dissipate
ahead of the next cold front to come off the coast of Texas
Wednesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a surface trough W of Jamaica
continuing to Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama adjacent waters.
The trough lies underneath of a diffluent zone between the base of
an upper trough over Honduras and SW to W upper flow covering the
central and eastern Caribbean. This environment aloft along with
shallow moisture, as seen in CIRA LPW imagery, support scattered
heavy showers and tstms S of 20N between 78W-83W. Very dry air is
subsiding elsewhere, thus supporting mainly fair weather. Isolated
passing showers are possible in Puerto Rico and the Windward
Islands. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are expected to
persist through the weekend into early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are possible this afternoon due to patches of
shallow moisture moving across the northern Caribbean waters.
However, dry air subsidence and strong shear will hinder the
development of convection through Monday night when a middle to
upper level trough will move over the Island from the W, thus
supporting lifting of warm moist air and the development of
showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave
trough supporting a 1014 mb low centered E of the Bahamas near
25N74W with associated trough extending from 32N76W to the low to
23N75W. Across the central Atlc, a middle to upper level trough
between 50W and 60W supports a pair of 1014 mb lows; one near
25N58W and the second near 25N52W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring primarily E of the lows from 21N-31N between
44W-54W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered N of the
Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 12:34
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Only minor adjustments have been made to the elevated area based on latest hi-res guidance. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should remain in place across much of the CONUS as the amplifying trough in the Pacific Northwest spreads eastward into portions of the Northern Rockies. Consequently, a split mid-level flow pattern should develop, with 50-60 kt flow present over portions of NM, southern CO, and the TX/OK panhandles. At the surface, low pressure should move southward into southern KS and OK, with warm/breezy southwesterly downslope winds developing to the west. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Surface winds of 15-20 mph will develop during the afternoon hours, as diurnal heating once again allows the aforementioned strong mid-level winds to mix to the surface. As these processes occur, RH values should approach 20% while fine fuels in the region remain dry and continue to transition to a dormant state. Thus, an elevated fire-weather designation has been introduced in an area where confidence in exceeding the elevated thresholds is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 12:34
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Only minor adjustments have been made to the elevated area based on latest hi-res guidance. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should remain in place across much of the CONUS as the amplifying trough in the Pacific Northwest spreads eastward into portions of the Northern Rockies. Consequently, a split mid-level flow pattern should develop, with 50-60 kt flow present over portions of NM, southern CO, and the TX/OK panhandles. At the surface, low pressure should move southward into southern KS and OK, with warm/breezy southwesterly downslope winds developing to the west. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Surface winds of 15-20 mph will develop during the afternoon hours, as diurnal heating once again allows the aforementioned strong mid-level winds to mix to the surface. As these processes occur, RH values should approach 20% while fine fuels in the region remain dry and continue to transition to a dormant state. Thus, an elevated fire-weather designation has been introduced in an area where confidence in exceeding the elevated thresholds is greatest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 11:19
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z Previous forecast remains on track. Only minor adjustments have been made to the elevated area based on latest surface observations and trends in hi-res guidance. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017/ ...Synopsis... Broad quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS today as an on-shoring trough in the Pacific Northwest amplifies. Flow at the mid-levels will strengthen across the western/central U.S., with 60-70 kt flow developing over portions of AZ/NM/CO. Surface low pressure will develop on the lea side of the Rockies, with breezy downslope southwesterly surface winds developing along and east of the front range aided by diurnal heating and vertical mixing processes. ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions will develop as sustained winds of 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, strengthen during the afternoon. Surface temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 70s and low 80s along with RH values dropping to near 15-20%. RH values should remain above critical thresholds for much of the region, however, brief critical conditions may develop in a few isolated locations, particularly in eastern CO. Fine fuels are expected to remain dry while transitioning to a dormant state. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 11:19
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z Previous forecast remains on track. Only minor adjustments have been made to the elevated area based on latest surface observations and trends in hi-res guidance. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017/ ...Synopsis... Broad quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS today as an on-shoring trough in the Pacific Northwest amplifies. Flow at the mid-levels will strengthen across the western/central U.S., with 60-70 kt flow developing over portions of AZ/NM/CO. Surface low pressure will develop on the lea side of the Rockies, with breezy downslope southwesterly surface winds developing along and east of the front range aided by diurnal heating and vertical mixing processes. ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions will develop as sustained winds of 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, strengthen during the afternoon. Surface temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 70s and low 80s along with RH values dropping to near 15-20%. RH values should remain above critical thresholds for much of the region, however, brief critical conditions may develop in a few isolated locations, particularly in eastern CO. Fine fuels are expected to remain dry while transitioning to a dormant state. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 05:56

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N17W to
07N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N22W to 04N30W to 06N43W. A surface trough is analyzed at the
western extent of the ITCZ axis from 04N44W to 12N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 02W-22W...and from
05N-09N between 30W-38W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere
from 02N-12N between 35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 29N87W
continues to prevail across the entire basin this morning. Latest
scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
throughout. The ridge is expected to move little through Sunday
morning and then shift gradually northeastward as moderate to
occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast across western
portions early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage near 19N75W to
13N81W and continues to provide focus for widely scattered
showers and tstms occurring from 11N-20N between 75W-84W. Farther
east...another surface trough extends from the central Atlc to
east of the Lesser Antilles near 15N59W. Shallow isolated showers
are occurring primarily SE of a line from 17N62W to 11N66W.
Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist
through the weekend into early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers linger across the island this morning...however
overall the pattern is expected to remain fairly tranquil the next
few days with westerly flow aloft and gentle to moderate trades at
the surface.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level shortwave
trough with axis extending from 36N66W to a broad base near
29N79W. This troughing supports a 1013 mb low centered E of the
Bahamas near 26N75W and a surface trough that cuts along 75W from
the low to 31N. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring well E of the low center from 24N-31N between 66W-72W.
Otherwise the remainder of the SW North Atlc is experiencing
rather tranquil conditions as dry zonal flow aloft prevails W of
65W. Across the central Atlc...a middle to upper level trough
extends along 53W from a base near 20N northward to 32N. This
troughing has induced an area of lower pressure between 50W-62W
featuring a 1013 mb low centered near 25N53W with a surface trough
extending S-SW to east of the Lesser Antilles near 15N59W. Another
surface trough lies to the NW of the low from 24N62W to 32N54W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring primarily E of
the upper level trough axis in an area of maximum middle to upper
level divergence from 19N-37N between 44W-54W. The remainder of
the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 45N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 01:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should remain in place across much of the CONUS as the amplifying trough in the Pacific Northwest spreads eastward into portions of the Northern Rockies. Consequently, a split mid-level flow pattern should develop, with 50-60 kt flow present over portions of NM, southern CO, and the TX/OK panhandles. At the surface, low pressure should move southward into southern KS and OK, with warm/breezy southwesterly downslope winds developing to the west. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Surface winds of 15-20 mph will develop during the afternoon hours, as diurnal heating once again allows the aforementioned strong mid-level winds to mix to the surface. As these processes occur, RH values should approach 20% while fine fuels in the region remain dry and continue to transition to a dormant state. Thus, an elevated fire-weather designation has been introduced in an area where confidence in exceeding the elevated thresholds is greatest. ..Karstens.. 11/04/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/04/2017 - 01:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should remain in place across much of the CONUS as the amplifying trough in the Pacific Northwest spreads eastward into portions of the Northern Rockies. Consequently, a split mid-level flow pattern should develop, with 50-60 kt flow present over portions of NM, southern CO, and the TX/OK panhandles. At the surface, low pressure should move southward into southern KS and OK, with warm/breezy southwesterly downslope winds developing to the west. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... Surface winds of 15-20 mph will develop during the afternoon hours, as diurnal heating once again allows the aforementioned strong mid-level winds to mix to the surface. As these processes occur, RH values should approach 20% while fine fuels in the region remain dry and continue to transition to a dormant state. Thus, an elevated fire-weather designation has been introduced in an area where confidence in exceeding the elevated thresholds is greatest. ..Karstens.. 11/04/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

Pages

Subscribe to Volunteer Mobile Emergency Response Unit -- rehabsector.org aggregator - Weather