Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 10:43
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2018 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes have been made to the elevated area across portions of southern CA. 16Z surface observations indicate locally strong/gusty winds are confined to mainly the coastal ranges/foothills and favored passes, where isolated gusts around 35-40 mph are ongoing. RH values will continue to lower into the 5-15% range through the afternoon, and spotty critical conditions may be realized on a brief basis. Still, a typical modest weakening of the surface pressure gradient is expected through peak heating, and the likelihood for widespread critical conditions appears too low to introduce a critical area. Modest restrengthening of the surface pressure gradient overnight into early Thursday morning may encourage locally gusty winds once again across the higher terrain, with brief/spotty elevated conditions possible where RH recovery remains poor. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018/ ...Synopsis... A Great Basin high pressure area will remain nearly stationary throughout the day, setting up favorable conditions for offshore flow (and heightened fire weather concerns) across portions of southern California today. Elsewhere, a longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley will shift slowly eastward, while high pressure migrates southeastward across the central and southern Plains. Quiescent fire weather conditions will persist in those areas. ...Coastal ranges of southern California... An appreciable offshore gradient will persist across the region throughout the day, resulting in localized areas of gusty northeasterly to easterly surface winds. Although not on a widespread basis, the gusts could exceed 35 mph in terrain-favored areas. These gusty surface winds will combine with fuels that have been drying substantially over the last 2-3 weeks, with dry fuels states supportive of fire spread. RH values will also drop into the 5-15% range in the afternoon as temperatures rise into the 70s and low-80s F. An elevated fire weather delineation remains in place to address these conditions, although locally/briefly critical conditions can be expected nearer the stronger winds within terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 10:43
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2018 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes have been made to the elevated area across portions of southern CA. 16Z surface observations indicate locally strong/gusty winds are confined to mainly the coastal ranges/foothills and favored passes, where isolated gusts around 35-40 mph are ongoing. RH values will continue to lower into the 5-15% range through the afternoon, and spotty critical conditions may be realized on a brief basis. Still, a typical modest weakening of the surface pressure gradient is expected through peak heating, and the likelihood for widespread critical conditions appears too low to introduce a critical area. Modest restrengthening of the surface pressure gradient overnight into early Thursday morning may encourage locally gusty winds once again across the higher terrain, with brief/spotty elevated conditions possible where RH recovery remains poor. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018/ ...Synopsis... A Great Basin high pressure area will remain nearly stationary throughout the day, setting up favorable conditions for offshore flow (and heightened fire weather concerns) across portions of southern California today. Elsewhere, a longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley will shift slowly eastward, while high pressure migrates southeastward across the central and southern Plains. Quiescent fire weather conditions will persist in those areas. ...Coastal ranges of southern California... An appreciable offshore gradient will persist across the region throughout the day, resulting in localized areas of gusty northeasterly to easterly surface winds. Although not on a widespread basis, the gusts could exceed 35 mph in terrain-favored areas. These gusty surface winds will combine with fuels that have been drying substantially over the last 2-3 weeks, with dry fuels states supportive of fire spread. RH values will also drop into the 5-15% range in the afternoon as temperatures rise into the 70s and low-80s F. An elevated fire weather delineation remains in place to address these conditions, although locally/briefly critical conditions can be expected nearer the stronger winds within terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 06:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure in northwestern South America will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and early
morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N10W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W, to the Equator
along 27W, to 02S31W, 02S37W, and to 03S40W at the coast of
Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 04N southward between 22W and 38W. Other
rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, toward 20N along the coast of Mexico. A
frontal boundary is in the Texas Gulf coastal plains.

The current Texas coastal plains front will accelerate
southeastward later today, and then stall east-to-west along 25N
on Thursday. Remnants of the front will move northward across the
northern gulf waters on Friday and Saturday ahead of a second
cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday. Strong northerly
wind flow will develop across the northwest waters late this
afternoon, with strong winds shifting southward along the coast
of Mexico tonight, and persisting near Veracruz through sunrise on
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale force along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong
trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central Caribbean
Sea, including the north-central passages through Friday. These
strong wind conditions then will spread eastward across the
eastern Caribbean Sea and continue through Saturday night. Fresh
to locally strong trade winds, accompanied by large east swell,
will continue across the tropical waters through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N60W to 30N66W.
A surface trough continues from 30N66W to 28N70W. A second surface
trough is along 31N60W 26N66W 21N70W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W
eastward.

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight,
and stall from Bermuda to southeast Florida on Thursday night.
Fresh to locally strong trades are expected across the tropical
waters south of 22N beginning late on Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 03:33

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070932
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
432 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0900 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and
lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to
support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the
next few days during the late night and early morning hours.
Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
06N09W to 02N22W to 03N22W, where scatterometer data indicates
the ITCZ continues and dips to below the equator near 29W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of the axis
between 25W-29W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of
a line from 01N32W to 01N36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic stretches
southwestward across northern Florida and to the N centraL
Gulf. This feature presently controls the wind regime across the
area. The buoys along with recent Ascat data indicate light to
moderate return flow over the area. As of 09Z, a cold front has
moved to just along the central Texas coast. Isolated showers are
over portions of the eastern gulf, and Straits of Florida. The
warm front will lift northward overnight as a cold front
approaches eastern Texas, and moves out over the NW Gulf by early
on Wed. Expect areas of dense fog to again form over portions of
the NW Gulf and along the coastal section of the N central gulf
tonight. The aforementioned cold front will be followed by fresh
to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft, mainly along
the northern Gulf and off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches
from central Florida to the SW Gulf by Thu evening. The front is
forecast to lift back northward as a weak warm front over the
western Gulf on Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun,
with highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10-16 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable environmental conditions are expected to prevail
across the basin, however patches of shallow moisture may support
brief passing isolated showers mainly E of about 72W. The current
synoptic pattern will also support fresh to strong winds in the
Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front enters the region through 32N62W to
29N66W, where it becomes a trough to 28N70W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted N of 29N between 64W-68W.
The trough will dissipate by this evening. High pressure building
behind the front will support fresh to locally strong E winds
south of 24N in the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu
night. These winds in the SW N Atlc will expand northward to 25N
during the weekend. A surface trough is analyzed along a position
from near 30N60W to 25N66W to near 20N71W. Isolated showers are
along and within 60 nm SE of the trough axis N of 27N. The portion
of the trough S of 27N appears to be diffusing with time. A cold
front is forecast to emerge off the SE United States coast early
on Thu, and move across the NW waters of the discussion area
during Thu. The front will then become stationary from near
Bermuda to southeastern Florida by Thu night. The pressure
gradient associated with high pressure that will build behind this
upcoming cold front will induce fresh NE winds along with seas
building to the range of 6-10 ft to the NW waters Thu night and
Fri. Winds are forecast to diminish on Fri as the high pressure
shifts eastward, and the western portion of the front lifts back
to the N as a warm front.

The Azores high pressure system extends a ridge west-southwestward
across the central and eastern Atlc, where latest scatterometer
data showed mainly moderate to fresh winds. Fresh to locally
strong trades are expected to materialize over the waters S of 22N
and E of the Bahamas as the gradient around the southern periphery
of high over the Atlantic waters tightens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 03:26

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070926 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Corrected header time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and
lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to
support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the
next few days during the late night and early morning hours.
Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from coastal Liberia near 06N09W
to 03N15W to 03N22W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
continues and dips to below the equator near 28W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the axis between 25W-
28W, and within 30 nm of a line from 01N32W to 01N36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic stretches
southwestward across northern Florida and to the N centraL
Gulf. This feature presently controls the wind regime across the
area. The buoys along with recent Ascat data indicate light to
moderate return flow over the area. As of 03Z, a warm front is
is over eastern Texas. Isolated showers are over portions of the
eastern gulf, and Straits of Florida. The warm front will lift
northward overnight as a cold front approaches eastern Texas, and
moves out over the NW Gulf by early on Wed. Expect areas of dense
fog to again form over portions of the NW Gulf and along the
coastal section of the N central gulf tonight. The aforementioned
cold front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds
and seas building to 8 ft, mainly along the northern Gulf and off
the coast of Mexico as the front reaches from central Florida to
the SW Gulf by Thu evening. The front is forecast to lift back
northward as a weak warm front over the western Gulf on Fri and
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun,
with highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10-16 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable environmental conditions are expected to prevail
across the basin, however patches of shallow moisture may support
brief passing isolated showers mainly E of about 72W. The current
synoptic pattern will also support fresh to strong winds in the
Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front enters the region through 32N62W,
and reaches to near 27N72W. weaken from near 32N64W southwestward
to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted N of 29N between 64W-68W. The front will weaken to a
trough early this morning and dissipate this afternoon. High
pressure building behind the front will support fresh to locally
strong E winds south of 24N in the approaches of the Windward
Passage through Thu night. These winds in the SW N Atlc will
expand northward to 25N during the weekend. Otherwise, a surface
trough is analyzed ahead of the front along a position from near
31N60W to 25N66W to the coast of inland N central Hispaniola
near 20N71W. Isolated showers are along and within 60 nm SE of
the trough axis N of 27N. The portion of the trough S of 27N
appears to be diffusing with time. A cold front is forecast to
emerge off the SE United States coast early on Thu, and move
across the NW waters of the discussion area during Thu. The cold
front will become stationary from near Bermuda to southeastern
Florida by Thu night. The pressure gradient associated with high
pressure that will build behind this upcoming cold front will
induce fresh NE winds along with seas building to the range of 6-
10 ft to the NW waters Thu night and Fri. Winds are forecast to
diminish on Fri as the high pressure shifts eastward, and the
western portion of the front lifts back to the N as a warm front.

The Azores high pressure system extends a ridge west-southwestward
across the central and eastern Atlc, where latest scatterometer
data showed mainly moderate to fresh winds. Fresh to locally
strong trades are expected to materialize over the waters S of 22N
and E of the Bahamas as the gradient around the southern periphery
of high over the Atlantic waters tightens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 00:08

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070608 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Corrected header time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and
lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to
support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the
next few days during the late night and early morning hours.
Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from coastal Liberia near 06N09W
to 03N15W to 03N22W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
continues and dips to below the equator near 28W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the axis between 25W-
28W, and within 30 nm of a line from 01N32W to 01N36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic stretches
southwestward across northern Florida and to the N centraL
Gulf. This feature presently controls the wind regime across the
area. The buoys along with recent Ascat data indicate light to
moderate return flow over the area. As of 03Z, a warm front is
is over eastern Texas. Isolated showers are over portions of the
eastern gulf, and Straits of Florida. The warm front will lift
northward overnight as a cold front approaches eastern Texas, and
moves out over the NW Gulf by early on Wed. Expect areas of dense
fog to again form over portions of the NW Gulf and along the
coastal section of the N central gulf tonight. The aforementioned
cold front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds
and seas building to 8 ft, mainly along the northern Gulf and off
the coast of Mexico as the front reaches from central Florida to
the SW Gulf by Thu evening. The front is forecast to lift back
northward as a weak warm front over the western Gulf on Fri and
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun,
with highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10-16 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable environmental conditions are expected to prevail
across the basin, however patches of shallow moisture may support
brief passing isolated showers mainly E of about 72W. The current
synoptic pattern will also support fresh to strong winds in the
Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front enters the region through 32N62W,
and reaches to near 27N72W. weaken from near 32N64W southwestward
to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted N of 29N between 64W-68W. The front will weaken to a
trough early this morning and dissipate this afternoon. High
pressure building behind the front will support fresh to locally
strong E winds south of 24N in the approaches of the Windward
Passage through Thu night. These winds in the SW N Atlc will
expand northward to 25N during the weekend. Otherwise, a surface
trough is analyzed ahead of the front along a position from near
31N60W to 25N66W to the coast of inland N central Hispaniola near
2071W. Isolated showers are along and within 60 nm SE of the
trough axis N of 27N. The portion of the trough S of 27N appears
to be diffusing with time. A cold front is forecast to emerge
off the SE United States coast early on Thu, and move across the
NW waters of the discussion area during Thu. The cold front will
become stationary from near Bermuda to southeastern Florida by
Thu night. The pressure gradient associated with high pressure
that will build behind this upcoming cold front will induce
fresh NE winds along with seas building to the range of 6-10 ft
to the NW waters Thu night and Fri. Winds are forecast to
diminish on Fri as the high pressure shifts eastward, and the
western portion of the front lifts back to the N as a warm front.

The Azores high pressure system extends a ridge west-southwestward
across the central and eastern Atlc, where latest scatterometer
data showed mainly moderate to fresh winds. Fresh to locally
strong trades are expected to materialize over the waters S of 22N
and E of the Bahamas as the gradient around the southern periphery
of high over the Atlantic waters tightens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 02/06/2018 - 23:24
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough - initially over the Great Lakes - will migrate eastward throughout the day while a broad zone of mid-level westerlies extend from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Plains. At the surface, lee troughing will develop from portions of Wyoming southward to eastern New Mexico, while the coastal California offshore gradient weakens in response to a weakening high over Utah. Although no fire weather delineations will be made for this outlook, a couple of areas will experience locally/briefly elevated fire weather conditions at times on D2/Thu afternoon: 1) Portions of the Texas South Plains and vicinity, where 10-15 mph southwesterly surface flow will combine with around 20% RH values during the afternoon and dry fuels, and 2) Coastal areas of southern California, where very localized areas of breezy northeasterly surface flow will occur amidst a continued dry airmass (characterized by RH values in the 5-15% range). ..Cook.. 02/07/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 02/06/2018 - 23:23
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A Great Basin high pressure area will remain nearly stationary throughout the day, setting up favorable conditions for offshore flow (and heightened fire weather concerns) across portions of southern California today. Elsewhere, a longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley will shift slowly eastward, while high pressure migrates southeastward across the central and southern Plains. Quiescent fire weather conditions will persist in those areas. ...Coastal ranges of southern California... An appreciable offshore gradient will persist across the region throughout the day, resulting in localized areas of gusty northeasterly to easterly surface winds. Although not on a widespread basis, the gusts could exceed 35 mph in terrain-favored areas. These gusty surface winds will combine with fuels that have been drying substantially over the last 2-3 weeks, with dry fuels states supportive of fire spread. RH values will also drop into the 5-15% range in the afternoon as temperatures rise into the 70s and low-80s F. An elevated fire weather delineation remains in place to address these conditions, although locally/briefly critical conditions can be expected nearer the stronger winds within terrain-favored areas. ..Cook.. 02/07/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 02/06/2018 - 23:14

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070513 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and
lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to
support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the
next few days during late night and early morning hours. Please
read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from coastal Liberia near 06N09W
to 03N15W to 03N22W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
continues and dips to below the equator near 30W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the axis between 21W-26W,
and within 30 nm of the axis between 13W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic stretches
southwestward across northern Florida and to the N centraL
Gulf. This feature presently controls the wind regime across the
area. The buoys along with recent Ascat data indicate light to
moderate return flow over the area. As of 18Z, a warm front is
over eastern Texas. Isolated showers are over portions of the
eastern gulf, and Straits of Florida. The warm front will lift
northward tonight as a cold front approaches eastern Texas, and
moves out over the NW Gulf by early on Wed.
Expect areas of dense fog to again form over portions of the NW
Gulf tonight. The aforementioned cold front will be followed by
fresh to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft, mainly
along the northern Gulf and off the coast of Mexico as the front
reaches from central Florida to the southwest Gulf by Thu evening.
The front then will lift northward as a weak warm front over the
western Gulf on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun,
with highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10-16 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable environmental conditions are expected to prevail
across the basin, however patches of shallow moisture may support
isolated passing showers south of 18N. The current synoptic
pattern will also support fresh to strong winds in the Windward
Passage, S of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front continues to weaken from near 32N64W
southwestward to the NW Bahamas. The front will weaken to a
trough late tonight or early Wed, before dissipating later on Wed.
High pressure building behind the front will support fresh to
locally strong E winds south of 24N in the approaches of the
Windward Passage through Thu night. These winds in the SW N Atlc
will expand northward to 25N during the weekend. Otherwise, a
surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front along a position
from near 31N60W to 25N66W to inland N central Hispaniola near
1971W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the
trough axis N of 28N. The Azores high pressure system extends a
ridge west-southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc,
where latest scatterometer data showed mainly moderate to fresh
winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 02/06/2018 - 18:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070004 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and
lower pressure in northwestern South America will continue to
support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the
next few days during late night and early morning hours. Please
read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from coastal Liberia near 06N09W
to 03N15W to 03N22W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
continues and dips to below the equator near 30W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the axis between 21W-26W,
and within 30 nm of the axis between 13W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic stretches
southwestward across northern Florida and to the N centraL
Gulf. This feature presently controls the wind regime across the
area. The buoys along with recent Ascat data indicate light to
moderate return flow over the area. As of 18Z, a warm front is
cold front is over eastern Texas. Isolated showers are over
portions of the eastern gulf, and Straits of Florida. The warm
front will lift northward tonight as a cold front approaches
eastern Texas, and moves out over the NW Gulf by early on Wed.
Expect areas of dense fog to again form over portions of the NW
Gulf tonight. The aforementioned cold front will be followed by
fresh to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft, mainly
along the northern Gulf and off the coast of Mexico as the front
reaches from central Florida to the southwest Gulf by Thu evening.
The front then will lift northward as a weak warm front over the
western Gulf on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun,
with highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10-16 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable environmental conditions are expected to prevail
across the basin, however patches of shallow moisture may support
isolated passing showers south of 18N. The current synoptic
pattern will also support fresh to strong winds in the Windward
Passage, S of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front continues to weaken from near 32N64W
southwestward to the NW Bahamas. The front will weaken to a
trough late tonight or early Wed, before dissipating later on Wed.
High pressure building behind the front will support fresh to
locally strong E winds south of 24N in the approaches of the
Windward Passage through Thu night. These winds in the SW N Atlc
will expand northward to 25N during the weekend. Otherwise, a
surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front along a position
from near 31N60W to 25N66W to inland N central Hispaniola near
1971W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the
trough axis N of 28N. The Azores high pressure system extends a
ridge west-southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc,
where latest scatterometer data showed mainly moderate to fresh
winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 02/06/2018 - 11:59

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support minimal
gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days
during late night and early morning hours. Please read latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Liberia near 05N09W to
03N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W across the
equator near 28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 10W and 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Platforms over the northwest Gulf continue to report areas of fog,
however it should clear up by this afternoon. Currently, a ridge
centered over the NW Atlc near 37N69W extends a ridge SW across
Florida and the Gulf, thus providing light to moderate return
flow ahead of the next cold front to move into the northwest Gulf
Wed near sunrise. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas
building to 8 ft will follow the front, mainly along the northern
Gulf and off the coast of Mexico as the front reaches from
central Florida to the southwest Gulf by Thu evening. The front
then will lift northward as a weak warm front over the western
Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong
winds in the central and eastern Caribbean through Sunday, with
highest winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10 to 15 ft
over much of the south-central and SW Caribbean, and up to 9 ft
elsewhere. Stable conditions prevail across the basin, however patches
of shallow moisture may support isolated passing showers south of
18N. The current synoptic pattern will also support fresh to
strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and in
the lee of Cuba through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front continues to weaken from 30N64W SW to the
northern Bahamas near 24N77W. The front will weaken in to a
surface trough later today, then dissipate Wed. High pressure
building behind the front will support fresh to locally strong E
winds south of 24N in the approaches of the Windward Passage
through Thu night. These winds in the SW N Atlc will expand
northward to 25N during the weekend. Otherwise, a surface trough
is ahead of the front extending from 31N60W to north-central
Hispaniola near 20N70W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either
side of the trough axis. The Azores high extends a ridge west-
southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc, where latest
scatterometer data show mainly moderate to fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 02/06/2018 - 10:30
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2018 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southern California on Wednesday (see previous discussion below). ..Jirak.. 02/06/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2018/ ...Synopsis... Most of the country will remain under the influence of broad mid/upper troughing on Wednesday, featuring a series of shortwave troughs progressing across the Plains and Midwest. In the wake of these systems, cold surface ridging will be reinforced from the Great Basin eastward to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. While this pattern will limit fire-weather concerns across most of the country, the Great Basin ridge will tighten the pressure gradient over southern California, especially early in the day Wednesday. Despite weak/non-existent mid-level offshore flow, this surface gradient will likely support sustained east/northeasterly winds around 15-25 mph with higher gusts across terrain-favored locations. Combined with RH values around 10-20 percent and a persistence of dry fuels, elevated/locally critical concerns appear probable across southern California Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 02/06/2018 - 10:27
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2018 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the outlook is the addition of an elevated area across portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley and northwestern Arizona. A midlevel shortwave trough and associated wind speed maximum will approach the area from the north during the day. As a result, strong northerly surface winds approaching 20 mph will develop as the boundary layer deepens and vertical mixing occurs during the afternoon. Concurrently, RH values are expected to fall below 15% in the midst of dry fuels, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. No changes are necessary to the other elevated fire weather area across portions of New Mexico, eastern Arizona, and far West Texas (see previous discussion below). ..Jirak.. 02/06/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2018/ ...Synopsis... Embedded within a mid/upper cyclonic flow dominating much of the contiguous US, a shortwave impulse will advance from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest today. As it does so, a corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft will position itself overhead parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and points eastward. To the west of a cold surface ridge over the southern Plains, westerly downslope flow will increase over much of New Mexico and eastern Arizona. A deepening boundary layer, augmented by adiabatic warming, will yield breezy/dry surface conditions by afternoon, characterized by sustained winds around 20-30 mph and RH values near 15-20 percent. In turn, elevated/locally critical conditions are expected across some lower elevations of New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 02/06/2018 - 06:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support minimal
gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days
during late night and early morning hours. Please read latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Liberia near 05N10W to
04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W across the equator near 25W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 05N between 12W and 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail of a dissipating stationary front extends from South
Florida near 25N81W NW to 26N86W, however no convection is
associated with it. Platforms over the northwest Gulf report
areas of fog this morning, however it should clear up by early
this afternoon. Currently, a ridge centered off the mid-Atlc
states provide light to moderate return flow ahead of the next
cold front to move into the northwest Gulf Wed morning. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft will follow the
front, mainly off the coast of Mexico, as the front reaches from
central Florida to the southwest Gulf by Thu night, then lift
northward as a weak warm front over the western Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Wed, with highest
winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 10 to 15 ft over much
of the south central and SW Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
Mostly dry, stable conditions prevail across the basin. Patches of
shallow moisture may support isolated passing showers south of
Hispaniola. The current synoptic pattern will also support fresh
to strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
through Fri. High pressure building over the central Atlc will
support fresh trades east of the Leeward and Windward Islands,
accompanied by E-NE swell in excess of 8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 30N66W SW to the northern Bahamas
and across South Florida where it starts to dissipate. The front
will weaken then dissipate Wed. High pressure building behind the
front will support fresh to locally strong E winds south of 22N
the next few days. A surface trough north of Puerto Rico will
drift westward without much convection. The Azores high extends a
ridge west- southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc,
where latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 02/06/2018 - 00:00

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support minimal
gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days
during late night and early morning hours. Please read latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Liberia near 06N10W to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W across the equator to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. There is no significant convection
associated with the convergence zone.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front snakes across the Gulf of Mexico
from southern Florida to Texas. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the
region. The front will lift northward dissipate and along the
northern Gulf coast early Tue. A cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
seas building to 8 ft will follow the front, mainly off the
coast of Mexico, as the front reaches from central Florida to
the southwest Gulf by late Thu, then lift northward as a weak
warm front over the western Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Wed, with highest
winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 8 to 12 ft over much
of the south central and SW Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
Mostly dry, stable conditions prevail across the basin. Patches
of shallow moisture may support isolated passing showers south
of Hispaniola. The current synoptic pattern will support fresh
to strong winds off Colombia, in the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola through Fri. High pressure building over the
central Atlc will support fresh trades east of the Leeward and
Windward Islands, accompanied by E-NE swell in excess of 8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N67W SW to the Florida Keys with
isolated showers northwest of the front. The front will weaken
and stall from 28N65W to the Straights of Florida Tuesday, then
dissipate Wed. High pressure building behind the front will
support fresh to locally strong E winds south of 22N the next
few days. A surface trough north of Puerto Rico will drift
westward without much convection. The Azores high extends a
ridge west-southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc,
where latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 02/05/2018 - 23:18
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2018 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Most of the country will remain under the influence of broad mid/upper troughing on Wednesday, featuring a series of shortwave troughs progressing across the Plains and Midwest. In the wake of these systems, cold surface ridging will be reinforced from the Great Basin eastward to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. While this pattern will limit fire-weather concerns across most of the country, the Great Basin ridge will tighten the pressure gradient over southern California, especially early in the day Wednesday. Despite weak/non-existent mid-level offshore flow, this surface gradient will likely support sustained east/northeasterly winds around 15-25 mph with higher gusts across terrain-favored locations. Combined with RH values around 10-20 percent and a persistence of dry fuels, elevated/locally critical concerns appear probable across southern California Wednesday. ..Picca.. 02/06/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 02/05/2018 - 23:17
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2018 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a mid/upper cyclonic flow dominating much of the contiguous US, a shortwave impulse will advance from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest today. As it does so, a corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft will position itself overhead parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and points eastward. To the west of a cold surface ridge over the southern Plains, westerly downslope flow will increase over much of New Mexico and eastern Arizona. A deepening boundary layer, augmented by adiabatic warming, will yield breezy/dry surface conditions by afternoon, characterized by sustained winds around 20-30 mph and RH values near 15-20 percent. In turn, elevated/locally critical conditions are expected across some lower elevations of New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Picca.. 02/06/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 02/05/2018 - 23:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support minimal
gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days
during late night and early morning hours. Please read latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Liberia near 06N10W to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W across the equator to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. There is no significant convection
associated with the convergence zone.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front snakes across the Gulf of Mexico
from southern Florida to Texas. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the
region. The front will lift northward dissipate and along the
northern Gulf coast early Tue. A cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
seas building to 8 ft will follow the front, mainly off the
coast of Mexico, as the front reaches from central Florida to
the southwest Gulf by late Thu, then lift northward as a weak
warm front over the western Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Wed, with highest
winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 8 to 12 ft over much
of the south central and SW Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
Mostly dry, stable conditions prevail across the basin. Patches
of shallow moisture may support isolated passing showers south
of Hispaniola. The current synoptic pattern will support fresh
to strong winds off Colombia, in the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola through Fri. High pressure building over the
central Atlc will support fresh trades east of the Leeward and
Windward Islands, accompanied by E-NE swell in excess of 8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N67W SW to the Florida Keys with
isolated showers northwest of the front. The front will weaken
and stall from 28N65W to the Straights of Florida Tuesday, then
dissipate Wed. High pressure building behind the front will
support fresh to locally strong E winds south of 22N the next
few days. A surface trough north of Puerto Rico will drift
westward without much convection. The Azores high extends a
ridge west-southwestward across the central and eastern Atlc,
where latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 02/05/2018 - 18:00

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge in the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northwestern South America will continue to support gale-
force winds near the coast of Colombia the next few days during
late night and early morning hours. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Liberia near 05N09W to
03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W across the equator to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. There is no significant convection
associated with the convergence zone.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front snakes across the Gulf of Mexico between 25N
and 27N from southern Florida to the Texas/Mexico border. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft across the region. The front will dissipate and
lift northward along the northern Gulf coast through early Tue.
A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh
to strong northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft will follow
the front, mainly off the coast of Mexico, as the front reaches
from central Florida to the southwest Gulf by late Thu, then
lift northward as a weak warm front over the western Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Wed, with highest
winds and seas near Colombia. Seas will be 8 to 11 ft over much
of the south central and SW Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
Mostly dry, stable conditions prevail across the basin. Patches
of shallow moisture may support isolated passing showers south
of Hispaniola. The current synoptic pattern will support fresh
to strong winds off Colombia, the Windward Passage and in the
lee of Hispaniola through Fri. High pressure building over the
central Atlc will support fresh trades east of the Leeward and
Windward Islands, accompanied by E-NE swell in excess of 8 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N72W SW to near Ft Lauderdale FL
with isolated showers NW of the front. Fresh to strong southerly
flow is north of 29N east of the front to 65W with seas to 9 ft
forecast through tonight. The front will stall from 29N65W to
the Straights of Florida Tue, then dissipate Wed. High pressure
will build behind the front, supporting fresh to locally strong
E winds south of 22N the next few days. A surface trough north
of Hispaniola will drift westward without much convection. The
Azores high extends a ridge axis west-southwestward across the
central and eastern Atlc, where latest scatterometer data show
moderate to fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 02/05/2018 - 12:57
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2018 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Minor adjustments were made to the elevated area across parts of eastern NM into southwest TX where RH values are forecast to be a bit higher than previously anticipated. Otherwise, forecast is on track. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/05/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2018/ ...Synopsis... Within the persistent cyclonic mid/upper pattern dominating the contiguous US, a shortwave trough will drop towards the Four Corners region Tuesday. Concurrently, this trough will sharpen in response to a jet maxima along its southwestern periphery. In turn, enhanced westerly flow aloft will develop over the southern Rockies through the day, promoting another day of breezy conditions over the region. Across the southern Plains, cold high pressure and related east/northeasterly winds will limit fire-weather concerns. However, to the west of the surface ridge, westerly downslope flow will increase through the day over much of New Mexico and eastern Arizona. Adiabatic warming and a deepening boundary layer will yield breezy/dry surface conditions, characterized by sustained winds around 20-25 mph and RH values near 15-20 percent. Accordingly, elevated/locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected across parts of the region Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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