Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 01:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move southeastward across the Great Basin to the Southwest and southern Rockies/High Plains by Saturday evening. A belt of 45-55 kt mid-level westerly winds will overspread the southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure should develop across the Great Basin in the subsident regime behind the upper trough, with the pressure gradient forecast to quickly strengthen across parts of southern CA and lower CO River Valley from Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward and westward across the southern Plains through the day, and will demarcate the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains into the Southwest... The enhanced mid-level westerly winds described above will reach the surface Saturday afternoon through diurnal heating/mixing processes. A broad area of strong/gusty winds around 15-30 mph will likely occur from parts of AZ eastward into much of western, central, and southern NM, and continuing into far west TX. RH values should become reduced into the 10-20% range across a majority of this area, supporting at least elevated conditions where fuels are dry/receptive. A critical area has been introduced across parts of southern NM into far west TX, where confidence is greatest in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained westerly winds and RH values of 10-15% for a few hours during peak diurnal heating. There is still some uncertainty in the placement of a cold front across the southern High Plains late Saturday afternoon. Depending on the location of this front, the eastern extent of the elevated and critical delineations may need to be adjusted in later updates. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Consensus of short-term guidance suggests that the surface pressure gradient will exceed critical thresholds across parts of southern CA by late Saturday evening and continuing through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). Elevated to critical conditions are expected across mainly the higher terrain, where sustained northeasterly winds of 15-30 mph will occur, with higher gusts of 45-55 mph likely. These low-level winds will be supported by some enhancement to the mid-level wind field. Strong downslope warming/drying will reduce RH values into the 8-20% range overnight. A critical area has been introduced for portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, southwestern San Bernardino, western Riverside, and Orange counties where confidence is greatest in sub-15% RH values occurring. Across the lower CO River Valley, strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph will likely occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning behind a southward-moving cold front. RH values should also fall into the 15-20% range for a few hours, which warrants an elevated area given dry fuels across this region. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 01:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move southeastward across the Great Basin to the Southwest and southern Rockies/High Plains by Saturday evening. A belt of 45-55 kt mid-level westerly winds will overspread the southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure should develop across the Great Basin in the subsident regime behind the upper trough, with the pressure gradient forecast to quickly strengthen across parts of southern CA and lower CO River Valley from Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward and westward across the southern Plains through the day, and will demarcate the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains into the Southwest... The enhanced mid-level westerly winds described above will reach the surface Saturday afternoon through diurnal heating/mixing processes. A broad area of strong/gusty winds around 15-30 mph will likely occur from parts of AZ eastward into much of western, central, and southern NM, and continuing into far west TX. RH values should become reduced into the 10-20% range across a majority of this area, supporting at least elevated conditions where fuels are dry/receptive. A critical area has been introduced across parts of southern NM into far west TX, where confidence is greatest in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained westerly winds and RH values of 10-15% for a few hours during peak diurnal heating. There is still some uncertainty in the placement of a cold front across the southern High Plains late Saturday afternoon. Depending on the location of this front, the eastern extent of the elevated and critical delineations may need to be adjusted in later updates. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Consensus of short-term guidance suggests that the surface pressure gradient will exceed critical thresholds across parts of southern CA by late Saturday evening and continuing through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). Elevated to critical conditions are expected across mainly the higher terrain, where sustained northeasterly winds of 15-30 mph will occur, with higher gusts of 45-55 mph likely. These low-level winds will be supported by some enhancement to the mid-level wind field. Strong downslope warming/drying will reduce RH values into the 8-20% range overnight. A critical area has been introduced for portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, southwestern San Bernardino, western Riverside, and Orange counties where confidence is greatest in sub-15% RH values occurring. Across the lower CO River Valley, strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph will likely occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning behind a southward-moving cold front. RH values should also fall into the 15-20% range for a few hours, which warrants an elevated area given dry fuels across this region. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 01:51
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should transition to broadly cyclonic over the CONUS today as a shortwave trough moves southeastward over the Pacific Northwest. Mid-level westerly flow should gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with lee troughing extending southward from this low across eastern NM. A cold front will move southward across the central/southern Plains through the period. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... In response to a strengthening surface pressure gradient and modestly increasing mid-level westerly winds, sustained surface winds around 15 to locally 20 mph appear likely across part of eastern NM into west TX this afternoon. Downslope warming/drying at low levels will reduce RH values into generally the 10-20% range for a few hours through peak heating. Coupled with dry/dormant fuels, these expected meteorological conditions support an elevated designation across this region. The lack of even stronger forecast winds precludes a critical area. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 00:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis passes through the coastal border
sections of Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W, and it
extends to 02N19W where latest scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ begins and dips to below the equator at 23W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm S of the axis
between 08W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 03Z, a stationary front extends from near Fort Myers Florida
southwestward to 25N86W, to 23N91W and to the eastern Bay of
Campeche and to inland Mexico at 19N93W. A trough just W of the
front extends from 20N93W northwestward to 22N95W. Latest
satellite imagery satellite imagery shows abundant deep layer
moisture denoted as multilayer clouds with scattered showers and
thunderstorms underneath them concentrated over the SW Gulf.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along with patches
of rain are elsewhere S of 26N between 89W-94W. Isolated showers
are elsewhere over the central gulf and over some sections of the
eastern gulf.

Strong high pressure, further supported by a 1026 mb high center
over eastern Mexico near Ciudad Mante, continues to surge
southward from Texas to along the coast of Mexico and toward the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The stationary front will slowly dissipate through the upcoming
weekend. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast late
on Sunday, and then become stationary from near the Mississippi
Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
NW Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and
Belize. Broken to overcast low-level clouds and possible isolated
showers are seen N of 15N and W of 83W, S of 15N between 71W-74W
and over portions of the eastern Caribbean. These clouds and
showers are moving quickly westward in strong trade wind flow.

Strong trade wind flow will continue over the south-central
Caribbean through Sun, except for nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale- force along the NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade
winds are expected elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea,
including the north-central passages through today. These conditions
will persist through Mon night. Strong trade winds and building
seas are forecast across the tropical waters north of 11N through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 03Z, a cold front extends from near 32N71W southwestward to
near 28N77W, where it becomes stationary to inland Florida near
Stuart. Isolated showers moving westward are noted west of 71W,
and from 14N to 30N between 41W-62W. Isolated small thunderstorm
cells are within 15 nm of a line from 22N52W to 26N53W to 29N53W.
This activity is being aided by broad central Atlantic mid to
upper level trough.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between
Africa and the southeastern United States. A nearly stationary
1041 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 36N35W with a ridge
axis stretching southwestward to 32N52W and to near 31N62W. High
pressure covers the area E of the front, while a new area of
strong high pressure is building across the far northern boundary
of the NW waters in the wake of the cold front. A surface trough
that recently formed along the NE Florida will lift northward
today.

The aforementioned cold front will shift eastward and stall from
Bermuda to SE Florida early today. Remnants of the front will
lift northward across the waters that are to the north of the
Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will move off
the NE Florida coast late on Mon. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds are expected to continue along the northern coast of
Hispaniola and the Atlantic Ocean approach to the Windward Passage
through Friday. A tightening pressure gradient then will support
strong trade winds across all the waters S of 23N by late Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/08/2018 - 18:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis passes through the coastal border
sections of Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W, and it
extends to 01N20W where latest scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ begins and dips to below the equator at 23W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm S of the axis
between 07W-09W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm N
of the axis between 11W-12W, and within 30 nm S of the axis
between 11W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21Z, a cold front extends from near Naples Florida
southwestward to 22N86W, then to 22N90W and to 22N92W, where it
becomes a stationary front to the eastern Bay of Campeche and to
inland Mexico at 19N92W. Latest satellite imagery satellite
imagery shows abundant deep layer multilayer clouds with scattered
showers and thunderstorms underneath them concentrated over the
SW Gulf. Scattered showers and patches of rain are elsewhere W of
89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the far
N Central Gulf near the coast of Louisiana while isolated showers
are over the eastern gulf waters.

Strong high pressure is surging southward from Texas to along the
coast of Mexico and toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

The current cold front will stall from SW Florida, to 23N95W, into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico tonight and dissipate by
Fri. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast late on
Sunday, and then become stationary from near the Mississippi
Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
NW Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and
Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
from 22N southward between 90W and 95W, and associated with the
current cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico. isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 15N to
22N between 80W and 96W, covering parts of the NW Caribbean Sea,
interior sections of Central America, and parts of the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broken to overcast low-level clouds and possible isolated showers
are seen N of 15N and W of 83W, S of 15N between 71W-74W and
over portions of the eastern Caribbean. These clouds and showers
are moving quickly westward in strong trade wind flow.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.31 in
Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

Strong to near gale force trades will prevail across the south-
central Caribbean Sea this week, except for nocturnal pulses to
minimal gale-force along the NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the central
Caribbean Sea, including the north-central passages through Fri.
These strong conditions then will spread eastward across the
eastern Caribbean Sea waters, and persist through Monday night.
Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across the
tropical waters north of 11N through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 32N76W southwestward to inland
Florida near Fort Pierce. Isolated showers are possible to the NW
of a line from 32N60W, to the coast of Florida near 27N80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between
Africa and the SE U.S.A. A nearly stationary 1038 mb high
pressure center is near 36N35W.

The aforementioned cold front will shift eastward and stall from
Bermuda to southeast Florida early on Friday. Remnants of the
front will lift northward across the waters that are to the north
of the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will
move off the NE Florida coast late on Mon. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds are expected to continue along the northern
coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic Ocean approach to the
Windward Passage through Friday. A tightening pressure gradient
then will support strong trade winds across all the waters S of
23N by late Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/08/2018 - 11:57

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 04N08W, and it curves through
02N16W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W, crossing the
Equator along 22W, to 04N31W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N
southward between 40W and 51W. isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb low pressure
center that is near 33N76W, through NE Florida near 30N81W, into
the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 22N southward between
90W and 95W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere across
the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge is pushing its way southward, from the Deep South
of Texas, along the coast of Mexico, toward the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The current cold front will stall from SW Florida, to 23N95W, into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The front
will dissipate by Friday. A second cold front will move off the
Texas coast late on Sunday, and then stall from the Mississippi
Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
NW Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and
Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
from 22N southward between 90W and 95W, and associated with the
current cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico. isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 15N to
22N between 80W and 96W, covering parts of the NW Caribbean Sea,
interior sections of Central America, and parts of the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 14N southward between 60W and 71W, and elsewhere, spread
across the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.31 in
Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

Strong to near gale force trades will prevail across the south-
central Caribbean Sea this week, except for nocturnal pulses to
minimal gale-force along the NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the central
Caribbean Sea, including the north-central passages through Friday.
These strong conditions then will spread eastward across the
eastern Caribbean Sea waters, and persist through Monday night.
Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across the
tropical waters north of 11N through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb low pressure
center that is near 33N76W, through NE Florida near 30N81W, into
the central Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of
the line that passes through 32N60W, to the coast of Florida near
27N80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between
Africa and the SE U.S.A. A 1038 mb high pressure center is near
37N34W.

The current cold front that is just off the NE Florida coast will
shift E and stall from Bermuda to southeast Florida early on
Friday. Remnants of the front will lift northward across the
waters that are to the north of the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.
Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late on
Monday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected to
continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic
Ocean approach to the Windward Passage through Friday. A
tightening pressure gradient then will support strong trade winds
across all the waters south of 23N by late Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/08/2018 - 10:48
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2018 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z Morning guidance suggests elevated fire-weather conditions may extend farther east into portions of northwest Texas. Here, a belt of westerly winds up to 15 mph, with some stronger gusts, will support downslope warming/drying. The result will be relative-humidity values falling into the teens and low twenties. This combination of wind and relative humidity, along with long-term drought, will support a broader area of elevated fire-weather conditions than previously forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/08/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should transition to broadly cyclonic over the CONUS on Day 2/Friday as a shortwave trough moves southeastward over the Pacific Northwest. Mid-level westerly flow should gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains by Friday evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to deepen over the central/southern High Plains through the period, with lee troughing extending southward from this low across eastern NM. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... In response to a strengthening surface pressure gradient and modestly increasing mid-level westerly winds, strong/gusty winds around 15-20 mph appear likely across part of east-central NM Friday afternoon. Downslope warming/drying at low levels should reduce RH values into generally the 10-20% range for a few hours through peak heating. Coupled with dry/dormant fuels, these expected meteorological conditions should support an elevated designation across portions of east-central NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/08/2018 - 10:48
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2018 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z Morning guidance suggests elevated fire-weather conditions may extend farther east into portions of northwest Texas. Here, a belt of westerly winds up to 15 mph, with some stronger gusts, will support downslope warming/drying. The result will be relative-humidity values falling into the teens and low twenties. This combination of wind and relative humidity, along with long-term drought, will support a broader area of elevated fire-weather conditions than previously forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/08/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should transition to broadly cyclonic over the CONUS on Day 2/Friday as a shortwave trough moves southeastward over the Pacific Northwest. Mid-level westerly flow should gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains by Friday evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to deepen over the central/southern High Plains through the period, with lee troughing extending southward from this low across eastern NM. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... In response to a strengthening surface pressure gradient and modestly increasing mid-level westerly winds, strong/gusty winds around 15-20 mph appear likely across part of east-central NM Friday afternoon. Downslope warming/drying at low levels should reduce RH values into generally the 10-20% range for a few hours through peak heating. Coupled with dry/dormant fuels, these expected meteorological conditions should support an elevated designation across portions of east-central NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/08/2018 - 10:48
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2018 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z Morning guidance suggests elevated fire-weather conditions may extend farther east into portions of northwest Texas. Here, a belt of westerly winds up to 15 mph, with some stronger gusts, will support downslope warming/drying. The result will be relative-humidity values falling into the teens and low twenties. This combination of wind and relative humidity, along with long-term drought, will support a broader area of elevated fire-weather conditions than previously forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/08/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should transition to broadly cyclonic over the CONUS on Day 2/Friday as a shortwave trough moves southeastward over the Pacific Northwest. Mid-level westerly flow should gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains by Friday evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to deepen over the central/southern High Plains through the period, with lee troughing extending southward from this low across eastern NM. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... In response to a strengthening surface pressure gradient and modestly increasing mid-level westerly winds, strong/gusty winds around 15-20 mph appear likely across part of east-central NM Friday afternoon. Downslope warming/drying at low levels should reduce RH values into generally the 10-20% range for a few hours through peak heating. Coupled with dry/dormant fuels, these expected meteorological conditions should support an elevated designation across portions of east-central NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/08/2018 - 10:39
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2018 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Only minor change to extend the elevated area northward into southwest Kansas. Otherwise, ongoing forecast remains on track. ..Marsh.. 02/08/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing initially over much of the central/eastern CONUS will transition to generally zonal flow late in the period, with enhanced mid-level westerlies overlying roughly the northern two-thirds of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will remain over a majority of the eastern states, with lee troughing occurring across the High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... The surface pressure gradient will modestly strengthen across eastern NM into west TX/western OK between the previously mentioned lee trough across eastern CO into northeastern NM and high pressure over the eastern CONUS. Short-term guidance continues to suggest west-southwesterly downslope winds around 15-20 mph will occur in conjunction with RH values of 15-20% for a few hours this afternoon across east-central NM. The elevated area has been expanded into portions of the TX/OK Panhandles, west TX, and western OK with increased confidence that RH values will fall below 20% across these areas. The lack of even stronger expected winds and only marginally reduced RH values precludes a critical delineation. ...Portions of Southern CA... Locally elevated conditions may persist for a hour or two at the beginning of the Day 1 period (12-14Z) for mainly the coastal mountains/foothills of southern CA as a modestly enhanced surface pressure gradient remains across this region. Consensus of latest short-term guidance indicates the pressure gradient will quickly diminish through the day as a surface high across the Great Basin also weakens. Resultant gusty offshore winds will likewise lessen later this morning and into the afternoon. Due to the limited spatial and temporal extent of these gusty winds and marginally reduced RH values, no elevated area appears warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/08/2018 - 10:39
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2018 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Only minor change to extend the elevated area northward into southwest Kansas. Otherwise, ongoing forecast remains on track. ..Marsh.. 02/08/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing initially over much of the central/eastern CONUS will transition to generally zonal flow late in the period, with enhanced mid-level westerlies overlying roughly the northern two-thirds of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will remain over a majority of the eastern states, with lee troughing occurring across the High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... The surface pressure gradient will modestly strengthen across eastern NM into west TX/western OK between the previously mentioned lee trough across eastern CO into northeastern NM and high pressure over the eastern CONUS. Short-term guidance continues to suggest west-southwesterly downslope winds around 15-20 mph will occur in conjunction with RH values of 15-20% for a few hours this afternoon across east-central NM. The elevated area has been expanded into portions of the TX/OK Panhandles, west TX, and western OK with increased confidence that RH values will fall below 20% across these areas. The lack of even stronger expected winds and only marginally reduced RH values precludes a critical delineation. ...Portions of Southern CA... Locally elevated conditions may persist for a hour or two at the beginning of the Day 1 period (12-14Z) for mainly the coastal mountains/foothills of southern CA as a modestly enhanced surface pressure gradient remains across this region. Consensus of latest short-term guidance indicates the pressure gradient will quickly diminish through the day as a surface high across the Great Basin also weakens. Resultant gusty offshore winds will likewise lessen later this morning and into the afternoon. Due to the limited spatial and temporal extent of these gusty winds and marginally reduced RH values, no elevated area appears warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/08/2018 - 06:06

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, and it curves through 06N15W to 04N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N18W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02N30W,
and to 03S35W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N southward
between 38W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N.
Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that runs from the
coast of Florida near 25N to the Yucatan Peninsula.

A cold front extending southwest from the Florida
Panhandle to Northeast Mexico will stall from southwest Florida to
23N95W to the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Remnants of the
front will lift north across the northwest gulf waters on Fri, and
then drift northeast across the northern coastal plains on Fri
night into Sat. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast
late Sun, and stall from the Mississippi Delta to the western Bay
of Campeche on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 15N to
22N between 86W and 96W, covering parts of the NW Caribbean Sea,
interior sections of Central America, and parts of the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 14N southward between 60W and 71W, and elsewhere, spread
across the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.31 in
Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

Strong to near gale force trades are expected across the south-
central Caribbean Sea this week, except for nocturnal pulses to
minimal gale-force along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh-
to-strong trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central
Caribbean Sea, including in the north-central passages through
Friday. These strong conditions then will spread eastward across
the eastern Caribbean Sea waters, and persist through Monday
night. Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across
the tropical waters north of 11N through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between
20W and the SE U.S.A. A 1039 mb high pressure center is near
37N33W.

A dissipating cold front passes through the Western Sahara near
23N16W to 21N20W. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast today and
stall from Bermuda to southeast Florida early on Friday. Remnants
of the front will lift northward across the waters that are to the
north of the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Another cold front
will move off the northeast Florida coast late on Monday. Fresh
to locally strong trade winds are expected to continue along the
northern coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic approach to the
Windward Passage through Friday. A tightening pressure gradient
then will support strong trade winds across all the waters that
are to the south of 23N by late Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/08/2018 - 00:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure in northwestern South America will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA. A cold front
extends from a 1010 mb low located at 31N09W, to across eastern
Morocco and to across the eastern and central sections of Western
Sahara, and out over the far eastern Atlantic near 24N20W. Broken
to scattered low clouds are noted on either side of the front,
with possible isolated showers.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W,
crossing the Equator along 24W, to 03S35W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm S of the axis between 19W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 03Z, a cold front extends from just W of Apalachicola to
27N90W to 25N95W to inland Mexico near Tampico. A pre-frontal
trough extends from just E of Apalachicola to 28N86W to 26N88W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the trough.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 nm E of
the cold front N of 29N. Isolated showers are along the front S of
29N. Water vapor imagery shows extensive mid and upper broken to
overcast clouds moving from SW to NE over the NW and N Central
Gulf. Areas of rain along with scattered showers are underneath
these clouds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of
the NW Gulf as well. High pressure is building southeastward
behind the cold front over the far NW Gulf. An Ascat pass from 03Z
last night highlighted NE 20-25 kt winds over the NW Gulf waters.

The cold front is forecast to shift southeastward through tonight,
then become stationary along 25N on Thu. Remnants of the front
will lift northward across the northern Gulf waters on Friday and
Saturday. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast late
Sun. Strong northerly flow over the NW waters will shift
southward along the coast of Mexico through today, and persist
near Veracruz through early on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Isolated showers are seen S of 20N W of 84W, and also from
Nicaragua to Honduras, to Belize, and parts of Guatemala, in
areas of westward moving scattered to broken low-level clouds.
A small area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is
concentrated over the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are also
E of 75W in patches of low-level moisture moving quickly
westward.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale-force along and near the NW coast of Colombia through the
upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds are forecast
elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north
central passages through Fri. These conditions will spread
eastward across the eastern Caribbean Sea and continue through Sat
night. Fresh to locally strong trade winds, accompanied by large
east swell, will continue across the tropical waters through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated showers moving westward are noted E of the Bahamas.
Similar activity moving northwestward is N of 26N W of 71W,
and between the Bahamas and Cuba.

An elongated mid to upper level trough is along a position from
26N21W to 26N32W to 32N43W. Patches of low-level moisture moving
westward with possible isolated are noted from 19N to 30N between
40W and 50W.

The latest synoptic analysis reveals high pressure ridging
extending from a 1040 mb high center, that is located well N of
the area just to the SW of the Azores, southwestward through
32N55W and to near 29N79W. High pressure covers just about the
entire basin, except in the far eastern portion near the cold
front associated with the gale force winds occurring in the
METEO-FRANCE high seas forecast area. The tail end of this front
extends out over the eastern Atlantic from the Western Sahara to
near 24N20W. This portion of the front is quickly dropping
southward as it weakens. Broken to scattered low clouds moving
west-southwestward in the strong NE flow around the eastern side
of the Atlantic ridge are observed to the N of about 19N and E of
40W. Latest Ascat data depicted strong NE to E winds over this
area of the Atlantic.

The present Gulf of Mexico cold front will emerge off the NE
Florida early this morning, then stall from Bermuda to SE tonight.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected across the
tropical waters S of 22N through Fri. The pressure gradient along
the southern periphery of strong N Atlantic high pressure will
begin to tighten on Fri allowing for trades to increase
significantly over the waters S of 23N going into Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 23:53
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should transition to broadly cyclonic over the CONUS on Day 2/Friday as a shortwave trough moves southeastward over the Pacific Northwest. Mid-level westerly flow should gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains by Friday evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to deepen over the central/southern High Plains through the period, with lee troughing extending southward from this low across eastern NM. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... In response to a strengthening surface pressure gradient and modestly increasing mid-level westerly winds, strong/gusty winds around 15-20 mph appear likely across part of east-central NM Friday afternoon. Downslope warming/drying at low levels should reduce RH values into generally the 10-20% range for a few hours through peak heating. Coupled with dry/dormant fuels, these expected meteorological conditions should support an elevated designation across portions of east-central NM. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 23:53
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should transition to broadly cyclonic over the CONUS on Day 2/Friday as a shortwave trough moves southeastward over the Pacific Northwest. Mid-level westerly flow should gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains by Friday evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to deepen over the central/southern High Plains through the period, with lee troughing extending southward from this low across eastern NM. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... In response to a strengthening surface pressure gradient and modestly increasing mid-level westerly winds, strong/gusty winds around 15-20 mph appear likely across part of east-central NM Friday afternoon. Downslope warming/drying at low levels should reduce RH values into generally the 10-20% range for a few hours through peak heating. Coupled with dry/dormant fuels, these expected meteorological conditions should support an elevated designation across portions of east-central NM. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 23:51
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing initially over much of the central/eastern CONUS will transition to generally zonal flow late in the period, with enhanced mid-level westerlies overlying roughly the northern two-thirds of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will remain over a majority of the eastern states, with lee troughing occurring across the High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... The surface pressure gradient will modestly strengthen across eastern NM into west TX/western OK between the previously mentioned lee trough across eastern CO into northeastern NM and high pressure over the eastern CONUS. Short-term guidance continues to suggest west-southwesterly downslope winds around 15-20 mph will occur in conjunction with RH values of 15-20% for a few hours this afternoon across east-central NM. The elevated area has been expanded into portions of the TX/OK Panhandles, west TX, and western OK with increased confidence that RH values will fall below 20% across these areas. The lack of even stronger expected winds and only marginally reduced RH values precludes a critical delineation. ...Portions of Southern CA... Locally elevated conditions may persist for a hour or two at the beginning of the Day 1 period (12-14Z) for mainly the coastal mountains/foothills of southern CA as a modestly enhanced surface pressure gradient remains across this region. Consensus of latest short-term guidance indicates the pressure gradient will quickly diminish through the day as a surface high across the Great Basin also weakens. Resultant gusty offshore winds will likewise lessen later this morning and into the afternoon. Due to the limited spatial and temporal extent of these gusty winds and marginally reduced RH values, no elevated area appears warranted at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 18:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure in northwestern South America will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and early
morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA. A cold front
extends from a 1010 mb low located at 32N10W, to inland the coast
of Morocco near 28N12W, to 26N20W and NW to 29N28W. Isolated
showers are possible along and N of the cold front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W to 04N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from
02N20W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 03S34W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the axis between 18W-20W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21Z, a cold front extends from just E of Pensacola to 28N92W
and to 26N95W, where it becomes stationary to inland far northern
Mexico. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N86W to 28N89W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the trough.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 nm E of
the cold front N of 28N. Water vapor imagery shows extensive mid
and upper broken to overcast clouds moving from SW to NE over the
NW and N Central Gulf. Areas of rain along with scattered showers
are underneath these clouds.

High pressure is building southeastward behind the cold front
over the far NW Gulf.

The cold front is forecast to shift southeastward through tonight,
then become stationary along 25N on Thu. Remnants of the front
will lift northward across the northern Gulf waters on Friday and
Saturday. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast on
Sunday. Strong northerly flow over the NW waters will shift
southward along the coast of Mexico tonight, and persist near
Veracruz through sunrise on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Isolated showers are seen S of 20N W of 84W, and also from
Nicaragua to Honduras, to Belize, and parts of Guatemala, in
areas of westward moving scattered to broken low level clouds.
Isolated showers are also E of 75W in patches of low level
moisture moving quickly westward.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale-force along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong
trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central Caribbean
Sea, including the north central passages through Fri. These
conditions then will spread eastward across the eastern Caribbean
Sea and continue through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds, accompanied by large east swell, will continue across the
tropical waters through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated showers moving westward are noted E of the Bahamas.
Similar activity moving northwestward is N of 26N W of 71W,
and between the Bahamas and Cuba.

An upper level inverted trough is along 20N42W 25N43W 32N44W.
Isolated showers are possible from 20N to 30N between 40W and
50W.

Surface ridging is present generally between 30W and 60W.

The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will emerge off
the NE Florida coast tonight, and then stall from Bermuda to
southeast Florida on Thu night. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds are expected across the tropical waters S of 22N beginning
late on Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 14:01
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z An elevated area has been introduced for portions of east-central NM for Day 2/Thursday. The surface pressure gradient should strengthen across this region as a lee trough develops across eastern CO into northeastern NM and high pressure remains prominent over the eastern CONUS. A corresponding increase in west-southwesterly winds around 15-20 mph now appears probable in conjunction with RH values becoming lowered into the 15-20% range for a few hours Thursday afternoon. Some expansion of this elevated area could be needed into portions of the TX Panhandle and west TX in a later update if confidence increases in RH values becoming sufficiently reduced. Locally elevated conditions may persist for a hour or two Thursday morning for mainly the coastal mountains/foothills of southern CA as a modestly enhanced surface pressure gradient remains across this region. Consensus of latest short-term guidance indicates the pressure gradient will quickly diminish through the day as a surface high across the Great Basin also weakens. Resultant gusty offshore winds should likewise lessen by late Thursday morning, and no elevated area appears warranted at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018/ ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough - initially over the Great Lakes - will migrate eastward throughout the day while a broad zone of mid-level westerlies extend from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Plains. At the surface, lee troughing will develop from portions of Wyoming southward to eastern New Mexico, while the coastal California offshore gradient weakens in response to a weakening high over Utah. Although no fire weather delineations will be made for this outlook, a couple of areas will experience locally/briefly elevated fire weather conditions at times on D2/Thu afternoon: 1) Portions of the Texas South Plains and vicinity, where 10-15 mph southwesterly surface flow will combine with around 20% RH values during the afternoon and dry fuels, and 2) Coastal areas of southern California, where very localized areas of breezy northeasterly surface flow will occur amidst a continued dry airmass (characterized by RH values in the 5-15% range). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 14:01
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2018 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z An elevated area has been introduced for portions of east-central NM for Day 2/Thursday. The surface pressure gradient should strengthen across this region as a lee trough develops across eastern CO into northeastern NM and high pressure remains prominent over the eastern CONUS. A corresponding increase in west-southwesterly winds around 15-20 mph now appears probable in conjunction with RH values becoming lowered into the 15-20% range for a few hours Thursday afternoon. Some expansion of this elevated area could be needed into portions of the TX Panhandle and west TX in a later update if confidence increases in RH values becoming sufficiently reduced. Locally elevated conditions may persist for a hour or two Thursday morning for mainly the coastal mountains/foothills of southern CA as a modestly enhanced surface pressure gradient remains across this region. Consensus of latest short-term guidance indicates the pressure gradient will quickly diminish through the day as a surface high across the Great Basin also weakens. Resultant gusty offshore winds should likewise lessen by late Thursday morning, and no elevated area appears warranted at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018/ ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough - initially over the Great Lakes - will migrate eastward throughout the day while a broad zone of mid-level westerlies extend from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Plains. At the surface, lee troughing will develop from portions of Wyoming southward to eastern New Mexico, while the coastal California offshore gradient weakens in response to a weakening high over Utah. Although no fire weather delineations will be made for this outlook, a couple of areas will experience locally/briefly elevated fire weather conditions at times on D2/Thu afternoon: 1) Portions of the Texas South Plains and vicinity, where 10-15 mph southwesterly surface flow will combine with around 20% RH values during the afternoon and dry fuels, and 2) Coastal areas of southern California, where very localized areas of breezy northeasterly surface flow will occur amidst a continued dry airmass (characterized by RH values in the 5-15% range). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/07/2018 - 10:59

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1158 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower pressure in northwestern South America will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and early
morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA. A cold front
extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 33N10W,
to the coast of Morocco near 28N13W, to 27N20W and 30N27W.
rainshowers are possible along and to the north of the cold front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 04N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W,
crossing the Equator along 24W, to 03S34W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 04N
southward between 24W and 39W. Other rainshowers are possible
elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from SW
Louisiana to the Deep South of Texas. The upper level wind flow
that is moving across the area of the front is from the southwest.
Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that runs from SE
Louisiana to NE Mexico. Low level clouds, and visibilities of 3-4
miles or less, are being reported at the offshore oil platform
sites, roughly from 27N northward from 88W westward.

A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, toward 22N along the coast of Mexico.

The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will shift southeast
today, then stall along 25N on Thursday. Remnants of the front
will lift north across the northern Gulf waters on Friday and
Saturday. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast on
Sunday. Strong northerly flow will develop across the northwest
waters late this afternoon, with these strong winds shifting south
along the coast of Mexico tonight, and persisting near Veracruz
through sunrise on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible from 15N northward from 80W westward,
and from Nicaragua to Honduras, to Belize, and parts of Guatemala,
in areas of westward-moving scattered-to-broken low level clouds.
Other rainshowers are possible across the open waters of the
Caribbean Sea, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds.

Strong to near gale force trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale-force along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong
trade winds are forecast elsewhere across the central Caribbean
Sea, including the north-central passages through Friday. These
conditions then will spread eastward across the eastern Caribbean
Sea and continue through Saturday night. Fresh to locally strong
trade winds, accompanied by large east swell, will continue across
the tropical waters through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One surface trough is along 33N60W 28N70W 26N75W, to the Florida
coast near 26N. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either
side of the line that passes through 32N63W 28N70W, to 27N80W at
the coast of Florida. A second surface trough is along 31N60W
26N66W 22N72W. rainshowers are possible within 30 nm to 60 nm on
either side of the line that passes through 32N57W 30N64W 25N68W
and 22N74W.

An upper level inverted trough is along 20N42W 25N43W 32N44W.
rainshowers are possible from 20N to 30N between 40W and 50W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between
30W and 60W.

The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will move eastward today,
and off the northeast Florida coast tonight, and then stall from
Bermuda to southeast Florida on Thursday night. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds are expected across the tropical waters south
of 22N beginning late on Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

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Subscribe to Volunteer Mobile Emergency Response Unit -- rehabsector.org aggregator - Weather