Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 05:45

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 18/0900 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 245 nm east-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 33.0N 71.4W,
moving north at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
974 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
Convection associated with Jose is north of the discussion area.
Jose is forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone
through Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 18/0900 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located about 85 nm east of
Martinique near 14.6N 59.5W, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 12N-16.5N between 56W-61W. Hurricane
warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maria
is forecast to intensify further over the next 48 hours. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 18/0900 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 920 nm
west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 14.1N 39.8W, moving west-
northwest at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is displaced east of the
center within 60 nm of 14N38W. Lee will slowly weaken during the
next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis along
75W south of 19N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated
convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America with an axis
along 91W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of high
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700
mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate convection is
over Central America from Yucatan to El Salvador.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
19N16W to 11N21W to 07N29W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-10N between 14W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is over the northern Gulf of Mexico. In upper
levels, an anticyclone is over the W Gulf near 25N95W. An upper
level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong
subsidence and minimal convection prevail over the region.
Expect scattered showers over Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of
Campeche today from a passing tropical wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 75W. See section above for details. The
eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the Pacific reaches
the coast of Colombia, and is producing scattered showers in the
southwest Caribbean south of 11N. An area of scattered moderate
convection is from 13N-15N between 89W-91W. Moderate trade winds
prevail across most of the basin, strongest in the south-central
Caribbean. Expect the tropical wave to continue moving west with
minimal convection. Hurricane Maria is expected to move into the
northeast Caribbean and head toward Puerto Rico during the next
48-72 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated convection is near the northern coast of the island.
Expect diurnal convection to develop each afternoon over the
next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria and T.D. Lee. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N40W to
24N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-31N between
36W-39W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence
of a broad surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
Categories: Weather

Tropical Depression Lee Graphics

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 03:59

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 08:59:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 08:59:40 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 03:50
...POORLY ORGANIZED LEE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Lee was located near 14.1, -39.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 14

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 03:50
...POORLY ORGANIZED LEE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT...
Location: 14.1°N 39.8°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Tropical Depression Lee Information by ATCF XML Prototype

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 03:49
Issued at Mon, 18 Sep 2017 08:49:30 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 03:01
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM...OK PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST CO...WESTERN KS... ...Synopsis... Within the deep large-scale mid/upper trough over the west, one embedded shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Tuesday, while another shortwave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cyclone and attendant trough will move eastward across the Plains. Dry and windy conditions will overspread much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains, resulting in a broad area of elevated to potentially critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region into the Southern/Central High Plains... As low/midlevel flow increases in response to the upper trough and associated surface low, relatively strong low-level southwesterly flow is expected to develop from the Southwest into the High Plains. In conjunction with the increased winds (sustained at 20-30 mph in many locations), substantial drying/mixing will result in the development of potentially critical RH values from northeast AZ eastward into western KS. The primary mitigating factor for the fire weather threat in this region is uncertainty regarding fuel receptivity in some areas. Due to recent rainfall and the lack of substantial long-term drought over most of the region, only a small critical area has been delineated across portions of the southern High Plains, where confidence is greatest in a several-hour period of critical wind/RH. However, fine fuels will cure quickly given the dry/windy conditions, and some expansion to the critical area may become necessary as fuel conditions are reevaluated. ..Dean.. 09/18/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 03:00
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper trough is expected to amplify and move eastward across the western U.S. today, as an associated cold front moves through portions of the interior Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. These features will result in cooler conditions and increasing precipitation potential across much of that region, though dry and windy conditions across portions of NV/UT/ID will result in some fire weather threat this afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin... Strong low-level west-southwesterly flow is expected to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin this afternoon. While temperatures may be somewhat cooler than previous days, sufficient heating/mixing within a dry airmass will result in the potential for near-critical RH values of around 15% at peak heating. In conjunction with the low RH, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will result in the potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Due to lingering uncertainty related to the relatively cool temperatures and duration of critically low RH, no critical area has been included with this outlook, though an upgrade is possible as short-term observational and model data is assessed prior to the Day 1 update forecast. ..Dean.. 09/18/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 01:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 18/0300 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 265 nm
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 32.2N 71.6W,
moving north at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
972 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Convection associated with Jose is mainly north of 31N. Jose is
forecast to gradually weaken, but remain a hurricane through
Tuesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 18/0600 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located about 80 nm north-
northeast of Barbados near 14.4N 59.0W, moving west-northwest at
11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 95 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 13N-15N between 57W-60W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 12N-16N between 55W-61W. Hurricane
warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maria
is forecast to intensify further over the next 48 hours. Please
see the latest NHC Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 18/0300 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 850 nm
west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13.6N 38.5W, moving west
northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Widely scattered moderate convection is displaced southeast of
the center. Lee will slowly weaken during the next 24 hours.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis along
74W south of 19N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely
scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America with an axis
along 90W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of high
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700
mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate convection is
over Central America from Honduras to Costa Rica.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to
08N21W to 07N29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N
between 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico. In upper levels,
an anticyclone is over the W Gulf near 25N95W. An upper level
trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence
and minimal convection prevail over the entire region. Expect
scattered showers over Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche
during the next 24 hours mostly due to a tropical wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 74W. See the section above for details.
The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the Pacific
reaches the coast of Colombia, and producing scattered showers
in the southwest Caribbean south of 11N. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail across the basin, with strongest winds in the
central Caribbean. Expect for the tropical waves to continue
moving west with minimal convection. Hurricane Maria is expected
to move into the northeast Caribbean and head toward Puerto Rico
during the next 48-72 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is over the northern coast of the
island. Expect diurnal convection to develop each afternoon over
the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.D. Lee and Hurricane Maria. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N39W to
24N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-31N between
37W-40W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence
of a broad surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
Categories: Weather

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