Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 11/08/2017 - 02:03
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2017 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather-related concerns are expected to essentially be nil today owing to seasonally cool temperatures and light winds. A progressive upper-level pattern will exist over the CONUS ahead of a substantial trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Aided by multiple disturbances crossing the southern tier of the CONUS, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected from Texas to the Southeast States to the north of a cold front that will continue to spread southeastward across the coastal Southeast and Gulf of Mexico. ..Guyer.. 11/08/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 11/07/2017 - 23:20

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 35.4N 48.5W at 08/0300 UTC,
or about 710 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 36N to 39N between 44W and 50W. See the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N16W to 09N20W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 09N20W to
07N32W to 05N42W to Guyana on the coast of S America near 07N58W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 12N
between 16W and 30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is found within 60 nm either side of a line from 05N30W
to 04N36W to 06N40W to 06N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered just SE of the Mouth of the
Mississippi near 28.5N88.5W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
generally prevail over the Gulf accompanied by fair weather. The
only exception is along the lower Texas coast where moderate SSE
return flow is observed in the latest satellite-derived wind data.
An upper level ridge extending over the Gulf of Mexico from near
Tampico Mexico to near Tampa Florida is maintaining strong
subsidence over the Gulf of Mexico S of 27N. Expect a cold front
to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts later this morning,
but shower coverage will be limited. Fresh to strong NNE winds
will be generated west of the front as it continues to move ESE
across the Gulf and to the Florida Big Bend by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends N from western Haiti through the
Windward Passage. The upper-level trough that is inducing this
surface trough extends NE from the Gulf of Honduras to eastern
Cuba. Divergent upper-level winds are combining with the surface
trough to trigger scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection S of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico within 90 nm either
side of a line from 15N66W to 18N70W. Farther S, the E Pacific
monsoon trough extends over the SW Caribbean along 09N from Costa
Rica to Panama to NW Colombia near 09N75W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present within 60 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 72W and 77W. Moderate trade winds prevail over
the Caribbean due to high pressure over the western Atlc and low
pres over northern S America. Expect more showers to continue over
the SW Caribbean, and the E Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends N from W Haiti through the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Upper level divergence remains in place over the
island. Scattered moderate convection is over Haiti. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over the island and
are most concentrated over the Dominican Republic. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to continue over the island during the next 48
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends NNW from
SW Haiti near 18N74W to just E of the northern Bahamas near
27N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed from 20N to 23N between 69W to 75W. A 1018 mb high hovers
over the W Atlantic near 31N67W. Another surface trough supported
by and upper-level low near 22N39W extends over the tropical
Atlantic from 20N39W to 15N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen from 17N to 19N between 37W and 40W. Of
note in the upper levels, the upper-level low that anchors the
trough over the caribbean is centered over E Cuba near 21N76W. The
low is producing divergent flow as far E as 60W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring over the Virgin islands and N of
the Leeward Islands from 18N to 23N between 59W and 64W. Another
upper-level low centered over the Canary Islands near 31N16W
producing scattered showers from 28N to 32N between 10W and 15W.
Expect the cold front currently approaching the Texas coast to
reach the W Atlantic on Thu evening. Also expect the E Cuba upper
level low to drift to the S Bahamas during the next 24 hours, with
continued showers and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 11/07/2017 - 17:34

000
AXNT20 KNHC 072333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 33.8N 48.9W at 07/2100 UTC,
or about 803 nm E of Bermuda, or about 1140 nm SSE of Cape Race
Newfoundland, moving N at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 34N-37N
between 46W-50W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N16W to 09N25W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 09N25W to
09N32W to 06N42W to S America near 07N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-11N between 20W-25W, and from 04N-07N
between 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 28N90W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are going around the high
with fair weather. Scattered showers are, however, over S Florida
and the Straits of Florida. In the upper levels, a large upper
level high is centered over the Mexico near 21N105W. Strong
subsidence is over the Gulf of Mexico S of 27N. Expect a cold
front to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Wed morning
with showers. Fresh to strong NNE winds will lie west of the
front as it continues to move ESE across the Gulf and the central
Florida Peninsula through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from 21N86W to the Gulf
of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered showers are over the Gulf of
Honduras, Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Further S, the eastern
extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean
along 09N between Costa Rica and N Colombia. Scattered showers are
over Costa Rica and Panama. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the
remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level
low is over E Cuba near 20N76W. Upper level diffluence E of the
low is producing scattered showers over the E Caribbean E of 74W
to include Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.
Expect more showers over the SW Caribbean, and the E Caribbean
over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the N Bahamas to SW Haiti. In
addition upper level diffluence is over the island. Scattered
moderate convection is over Haiti. Scattered showers are over the
Dominican Republic. Expect showers and thunderstorms over the
island for the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Rina. In the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends from
27N74W to SW Haiti near 18N74W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 20N-24N between 68W-75W. A 1018 mb high is over the W
Atlantic near 31N67W. Another surface trough is over the tropical
Atlantic from 20N39W to 15N42W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 17N-20N between 37W-40W. Of note in the upper levels, the
upper level low centered over E Cuba is producing diffluent flow
as far E as 60W. Scattered moderate convection is N of the Leeward
Islands from 19N-24N between 60W-64W. Another upper level low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 22N41W enhancing convection. A
third upper level low is centered over the Canary Islands near
30N16W producing scattered showers from 28N-32N between 10W-18W.
Expect the cold front presently over central Texas to reach the W
Atlantic on Thu evening. Also expect the E Cuba upper level low to
drift to the S Bahamas over the next 24 hours, with continued
showers and thunderstorms N of the Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 11/07/2017 - 12:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 32.4N 49.3W at 07/1500 UTC
or about 785 nm E of Bermuda and about 1140 nm W of the Azores
moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of the storm center from
33N to 38N between 43W and 51W. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal, Africa near 12N16W to
08N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from
08N25W to 06N40W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 10N E of 32W and from 03N to 09N W of 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico just S of
Alabama and Mississippi near 28N88W, which continues to provide light
to gentle NE to E flow E of 90W and light to moderate SSE winds W
of 90W. Middle to upper level ridging is over the basin along with
very dry air, which support clear skies. The center of high
pressure will move to the NW Gulf waters through Wednesday morning
where it will dissipate ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coast. Fresh to strong NNE winds will
lie west of the front as it continues to move ESE across the Gulf
and the central Florida Peninsula through Thu night. Scattered to
isolated showers will accompany the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low centered over E Cuba extends S to a base over the
SW Caribbean while middle to upper level ridging covers the
remainder basin. Between these two features, diffluent flow along
with shallow moisture support scattered showers and tstms between
63W and 75W, including Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage and
Hispaniola. Isolated showers are across E Cuba being supported by
a surface trough extending S from the SW N Atlc. This shower
activity will continue in the central and north-central region of
the basin through early in the weekend as the upper low deepens to
the middle levels and then drifts to the SW Caribbean. The EPAC
monsoon trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica to NW Colombia
and support scattered showers S of 11N. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate trades are expected to persist through early Wed morning
when a low develops over the central basin tightening slightly the
pressure gradient.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diffluent flow between a middle level low centered over E Cuba and
ridging to the E supports scattered showers and tstms between 63W
and 75W, including the Mona Passage and Hispaniola. This shower
activity will continue across the Island and adjacent waters
through early in the weekend as the upper low deepens to the
middle levels and then drifts to the SW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Rina. A pair of surface troughs are in the SW N Atlc, one
off the Florida coast that lacks convection and another across the
Bahamas to E Cuba along 74W. The easternmost trough support
isolated showers in the southern Bahamas and adjacent waters. E of
the trough, the diffluent flow in the Caribbean extends N
supporting scattered showers and tstms S of 25N between 60W and
70W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1038 mb high centered N of the
Azores Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/07/2017 - 09:59
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2017 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 11/07/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2017/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast for Wednesday as several shortwave troughs continue to track eastward across the country. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. A cold front will continue to move southeast across the far southeastern U.S. and into the Gulf of Mexico and offshore the Atlantic coast. Seasonally cool temperatures and light winds will limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/07/2017 - 09:56
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2017 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 11/07/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2017/ ...Synopsis... Two mid/upper shortwave troughs will migrate eastward across the CONUS today. The first will track from the Great Lakes/OH Valley eastward across New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The second shortwave trough is currently located across the northern Rockies and will weaken as it shifts east/southeast into the Plains. The combined effect of these two systems will translate to a south/southeastward progressing surface cold front across the southeastern U.S. while strong surface high pressure builds over the Plains. Some marginal RH conditions are possible over the central/southern High Plains as a dry continental airmass filters southward behind the cold front, but cool temperatures and light winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 11/07/2017 - 05:14

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 30.4N 49.9W at 07/0900 UTC
or about 765 nm E of Bermuda and about 1190 nm WSW of the Azores
moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 31N to 34N
between 45W and 50W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal on the African coast near
13N17W to 09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
continues from 09N19W to 07N31W to 04N45W to the coast of South
America at 06N55W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present within 180 nm either side of a line from
09N16W to 05N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 08N between 40W and 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the Gulf of Mexico just S of the
Florida Panhandle near 29.5N85.5W. The high continues to maintain
a benign weather pattern over the basin. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds generally prevail over the Gulf, with the
exception that moderate to occasionally fresh return flow from the
SSE has set up N of 21N and W of 95W ahead of the next frontal
boundary which is currently over central Texas. An upper-level
ridge crosses the Gulf from near Tampico Mexico to near Tampa
Florida. Strong subsidence beneath the ridge remains over the
entire Gulf. The front is still expected to arrive on the Texas
and Louisiana coasts Wed evening, then slowly move SE through Thu
morning. The front will be accompanied by showers and
thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough extends over the far SW Caribbean from the
Eastern Pacific across Costa Rica to NW Colombia near 10N73W.
Isolated thunderstorms associated with the trough are confined to
south of 10N and near the coast of Colombia from 11.5N to 14.5N
between 73W and 75W. Low pressure over northern South America and
high pressure over the western Atlc are maintaining light to
moderate cyclonic wind flow over the basin. An upper-level trough
extends NE over the NW Caribbean from NE Nicaragua to NE Cuba.
Upper-level divergence E of the trough axis is producing scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection over the Hispaniola,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands from 17N to 23N between 62W
and 71W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the Windward
Passage from 18N to 24N between 71W and 75W. Expect more showers
and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean during the next 48 hours
as the monsoon trough remains in place. Convection over the
eastern Caribbean will slowly shift eastward and gradually
diminish as the upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean slowly
progresses eastward and weakens.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from Haiti near 18N73W to just E of the
central Bahamas near 26N74.5W. Upper-level divergence is also
aiding convection over the island. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms that are most concentrated over the Dominican
Republic should slowly taper off during the next 48 hours and the
upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean moves eastward slowly
and weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on Tropical
Storm Rina. Otherwise, a surface trough extends over the western
Atlc from Haiti near 18N73W to just E of the central Bahamas near
26N74.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
found mainly N of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from 17N
to 23N between 62W and 71W. An upper-level trough is over the
central Atlantic from 31N41W to 23N41W to 15N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is taking place from 25N to 28N between 46W
and 48W. Otherwise, a 1037 mb high centered over the central
Atlantic near 44N33W is maintaining fair weather over the basin E
of 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/07/2017 - 00:48
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2017 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast for Wednesday as several shortwave troughs continue to track eastward across the country. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. A cold front will continue to move southeast across the far southeastern U.S. and into the Gulf of Mexico and offshore the Atlantic coast. Seasonally cool temperatures and light winds will limit fire weather concerns. ..Leitman.. 11/07/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/07/2017 - 00:47
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2017 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Two mid/upper shortwave troughs will migrate eastward across the CONUS today. The first will track from the Great Lakes/OH Valley eastward across New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The second shortwave trough is currently located across the northern Rockies and will weaken as it shifts east/southeast into the Plains. The combined effect of these two systems will translate to a south/southeastward progressing surface cold front across the southeastern U.S. while strong surface high pressure builds over the Plains. Some marginal RH conditions are possible over the central/southern High Plains as a dry continental airmass filters southward behind the cold front, but cool temperatures and light winds will limit the fire weather threat. ..Leitman.. 11/07/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 11/06/2017 - 23:56

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 30.4N 49.9W
at 07/0300 UTC or about 770 nm E of Bermuda and about 1220 nm WSW
of the Azores moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
30N to 32N between 47W and 50W. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea Bissau on the African
coast near 12N15W to 10N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis continues from 10N18W to 08N27W to 06N40W to the coast of
South America at 06N54W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present within 180 nm either side of a line from
18N17W to 05N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 08N between 40W and 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the Gulf of Mexico just SE of the
Mouth of the Mississippi near 28.5N88.5W. The high is maintaining
a benign weather pattern over the basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds generally prevail over the Gulf, with the exception that
moderate return flow from the SSE has set up N of 21N and W of 95W
ahead of the next frontal boundary which is currently over
central Texas. In the upper levels, an upper-level ridge crosses
the Gulf from the bay of campeche to the Florida Big Bend. Strong
subsidence associated with this feature remains over the entire
Gulf. A cold front is still expected to slowly move SE from the
Texas and Louisiana coasts Wed evening through Thu morning
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough crosses the NW Caribbean from NE Honduras
near 15N84W to S of Cuba near 19N82W. This trough has no
significant convection associated with it. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the trough. Farther S, the monsoon trough extends
over the far SW Caribbean from the Eastern Pacific along the coast
of Panama to NW Colombia near 09N76W. Isolated thunderstorms
associated with the trough are confined to land over Panama. Low
pressure over northern South America and high pressure over the
western Atlc is maintaining light to moderate cyclonic wind flow
over the basin. An upper-level trough extends NE over the NW
Caribbean from NE Honduras to NE Cuba. Upper level diffluence E of
the trough axis is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Windward Passage, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,
and the Virgin Islands. Expect more showers and thunderstorms over
the SW Caribbean during the next 48 hours as the monsoon trough
remains in place. Convection over the eastern Caribbean will shift
eastward as the upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean slowly
progresses eastward.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the S Bahamas to central
Hispaniola. Upper level diffluence is also aiding convection over
the island. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
Hispaniola should slowly taper off during the next 48 hours and
the upper- level trough over the NW Caribbean moves eastward
slowly and weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on newly
upgraded Tropical Storm Rina. Otherwise, a surface trough extends
over the western Atlc from the Dominican Republic near 19N71W to N
of the central Bahamas near 25N74W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is found mainly N of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola in an area bounded by 19N64W to 20N73W to 23N71W to
19N64W. An upper-level trough is over the central Atlantic from
31N42W to 17N48W. Scattered moderate convection is taking place
from 23N to 27N between 46W and 47W. Otherwise, a 1037 mb high
centered over the central Atlantic near 32N34W is maintaining fair
weather over the basin E of 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 11/06/2017 - 18:02

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nineteen is centered near 29.9N 50.0W at
06/2100 UTC or about 773 nm E of Bermuda and about 1238 nm WSW of
the Azores moving NNE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-31N between 47W-
50W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N15W to
09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N20W to 06N40W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 06N-11N between 18W-28W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 02N-11N between 16W-40W, and
from 03N-08N between 40W-59W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is also near Trinidad from 08N-12N between 59W-65W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a 1019 mb high is centered over the north central
Gulf of Mexico near 29N89W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are going
around the high with fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper
level high is centered over the W Gulf near 25N94W. Strong
subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect a cold front to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Wed evening with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 2100 UTC, a surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from
20N82W to N Nicaragua near 14N94W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the trough. Further S, the eastern extent of the E Pacific
monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean along 09N between Costa
Rica and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over Costa Rica and
Panama. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the
Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
NW Caribbean with axis from central Cuba to NE Honduras. Upper
level diffluence is E of the trough axis producing scattered
showers over the Windward Passage, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands. Expect more showers over the SW Caribbean, and
the E Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the S Bahamas to central Hispaniola.
In addition upper level diffluence is over the island. Scattered
moderate convection is over NW Hispaniola. Scattered showers are
over the remainder of the island. Expect little change over the
next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See special features for information about Tropical Depression
Nineteen. Otherwise, in the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends
from 26N74W to the S Bahamas to central Hispaniola near 19N71W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. A
1017 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 25N58W. Of note in
the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic
with axis from 31N71W to central Cuba near 22N77W. Upper level
diffluence is E of the trough axis producing isolated moderate
convection from 20N-26N between 60W-70W. Another upper level
trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 21N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-26N between 44W-47W.
Expect the W Atlantic upper level trough to remain quasi-
stationary over the next 24 hours, while the central Atlantic
upper level trough moves E.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 11/06/2017 - 11:56

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nineteen is centered near 29.5N 50.4W at
06/1500 UTC or about 758 nm E of Bermuda and about 1268 nm WSW of
the Azores moving NNE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-32N between 46W-
51W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N19W to 08N30W to 06N45W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-10N E of 44W and from 01N-11N between
48W-63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails in the SE CONUS extending SW across the
Gulf of Mexico where it is anchored by a 1021 mb high located over
the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W. The ridge continue to provide
light to gentle NE to E flow E of 90W and light to moderate SSE
winds W of 90W, except for locally fresh winds off the coast of
Texas. The ridge will remain nearly stationary across the NNE
Gulf waters through Wednesday evening when a cold front is
forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast. Fresh to
strong NNE winds will lie west of the front as it continues to
move ESE across the Gulf and the central Florida Peninsula
through Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level short-wave trough over the SW N Atlc
extends SSW across portions of the NW and SW Caribbean. A ridge
aloft to the E of the trough generates a diffluent environment
that supports scattered showers and tstms in the Windward
Passage and southward to 16N, including Jamaica ESE adjacent
waters. Isolated showers extend across E Cuba, Jamaica,
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. This shower activity will continue in
this region through Thu morning as the short-wave trough is
forecast to stall before dissipating. The EPAC monsoon trough
extends across Panama and Costa Rica to NW Colombia and support
isolated showers S of 14N. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades
are expected to persist through early Thu morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

A middle to upper level short-wave trough extends from the SW N
Atlc to portions of the NW Caribbean. A ridge aloft to the E of
the trough generates a diffluent environment that supports
scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage and isolated
showers across Hispaniola. This shower activity will continue
through Thu morning as the short-wave trough is forecast to stall
before dissipating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See special features for information about Tropical Depression
Nineteen. Otherwise, in the SW N Atlc, a middle to upper level
short-wave trough with axis extending SSW to a base over the SW
Caribbean supports a surface trough across the Bahamas from
28N73W to 20N75W. Diffluence aloft associated with the trough
is generating an area of widely scattered showers and isolated
tstms S of 27N between 60W and 76W. The remainder of the eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029
mb high centered NE of the Azores Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/06/2017 - 10:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 11/06/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Great Basin on Tuesday toward the southern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build southward into the Intermountain West and Great Plains. While some locations in the Southwest will be windy in advance of the shortwave trough on Tuesday, the likelihood of critical RH values is low, limiting the fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/06/2017 - 10:55
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Portions of the elevated area -- especially across the east -- remain beneath a cool stratus deck. Recent satellite images suggests this low-level stratus is mixing out, therefore locally elevated fire-weather conditions should develop during the afternoon. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 11/06/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Monday will feature zonal flow over most of the CONUS, with a southern-stream speed maximum over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a lee trough will develop over the southern High Plains while high pressure builds into the Dakotas from the northwest. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... As diurnal heating leads to boundary-layer deepening, enhanced westerly flow aloft will mix down to the surface, resulting in sustained surface wind speeds of 15-20 mph (with gusts over 30 mph, especially during the early afternoon). Meanwhile, downslope warming and drying will aid in afternoon RH values falling below 20 percent. These dry and breezy conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions across the region on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 11/06/2017 - 05:00

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
547 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Nineteen is centered near 28.9N 50.2W at
06/0900 UTC or about 780 nm E of Bermuda and about 1275 nm WSW of
the Azores moving E at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N- 30N between
48W- 51W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N20W to 04N36W to 01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01N-07N between the Prime Meridian and 10W...and from 04N-12N
between 10W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-09N
between 21W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 29N86W
continues to prevail across the entire basin this morning. Latest
scatterometer...ship...and buoy data indicates gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow throughout...with occasional fresh southerly
winds across the far NW waters. The ridge is expected to move
little and remain nearly stationary across the NE Gulf waters
through Tuesday night. Moderate to occasional fresh southerly
return flow is forecast across western portions through Wednesday
as the next front is expected to emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon into the early evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A middle to upper level trough with axis extending from over
central Cuba to a base over NE Honduras near 16N85W is supporting
scattered showers and isolated tstms east of the trough axis from
15N-21N between 73W-80W. Other isolated showers and tstms are
occurring S of 14N between 68W-82W within southwesterly flow
aloft. Farther east...shallow isolated showers are occurring
primarily E of 72W...including Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and
several of the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise...gentle to moderate
trades are expected to persist through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers linger across the island this morning...as a
middle to upper level trough lies to the W over the western
Caribbean. The troughing is generating an area of divergence over
the region within southwesterly flow aloft and generating widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms across a large portion of
the adjacent coastal waters from 16N-23N between 66W-76W. Gentle
to moderate trades prevail at the surface.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough with
axis extending from 32N69W to over central Cuba to a base over
Central America near 16N85W. This troughing supports a surface
trough analyzed from a weak 1016 mb low near 26N80W to 30N76W.
Maximum middle to upper level divergence associated with the
troughing aloft is generating an area of widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms from 19N-26N between 63W-75W. Across the
central Atlc...Tropical Depression Nineteen is highlighted above.
The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge with axis extending from 32N35W to 22N43W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/06/2017 - 01:19
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Great Basin on Tuesday toward the southern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build southward into the Intermountain West and Great Plains. While some locations in the Southwest will be windy in advance of the shortwave trough on Tuesday, the likelihood of critical RH values is low, limiting the fire-weather potential. ..Jirak.. 11/06/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/06/2017 - 01:17
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Monday will feature zonal flow over most of the CONUS, with a southern-stream speed maximum over the southern Rockies. At the surface, a lee trough will develop over the southern High Plains while high pressure builds into the Dakotas from the northwest. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... As diurnal heating leads to boundary-layer deepening, enhanced westerly flow aloft will mix down to the surface, resulting in sustained surface wind speeds of 15-20 mph (with gusts over 30 mph, especially during the early afternoon). Meanwhile, downslope warming and drying will aid in afternoon RH values falling below 20 percent. These dry and breezy conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions across the region on Monday. ..Jirak.. 11/06/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 22:52

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060452
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1152 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 30N50W and supports a 1012 mb low
centered near 29N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from
27N-30N between 48W-51W with isolated moderate convection
elsewhere from 25N-35N between 44W-51W. The low is expected to
drift northward through Monday night and merge with a weakening
frontal boundary currently along 35N. Until then...conditions are
expected to remain favorable for possible tropical cyclone
development across the central Atlc. This system has a high
chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
11N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N20W to 06N27W to 07N58W. Isolated moderate convection is from
02N-07N between the Prime Meridian and 08W...and from 04N-11N
between 10W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N
between 21W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 30N86W
continues to prevail across the entire basin this evening. Latest
scatterometer...ship...and buoy data indicates gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow throughout...with occasional fresh southerly
winds across the far NW waters. The ridge is expected to move
little and remain nearly stationary across the NE Gulf waters
through Tuesday night. Moderate to occasional fresh southerly
return flow is forecast across western portions through Wednesday
when the next front is expected to emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon into the early evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from 13N83W to 21N82W and continues to
provide focus for isolated showers and tstms occurring from 13N-
17N between 82W-87W. The trough is supported aloft by a middle to
upper level trough with axis extending from over central Cuba to a
base over NE Honduras near 16N85W. Middle to upper level
divergence east of the trough axis is generating widely scattered
showers from 16N-21N between 72W-80W. Farther east...shallow
isolated showers are occurring primarily E of 72W...including
Hispaniola...the Mona Passage...and Puerto Rico. Otherwise...
gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist through
Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers linger across the island this evening...as a
middle to upper level trough lies to the E over the western
Caribbean. The troughing is generating an area of divergence over
the region within southwesterly flow aloft. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail at the surface.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough with
axis extending from 32N71W to 23N79W to a base over Central
America near 16N85W. This troughing supports a surface trough
analyzed from 23N78W to 30N75W. Maximum middle to upper level
divergence associated with the trough is generating an area of
widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms from 20N-27N
between 66W-76W. Across the central Atlc...the special features
low pressure area is mentioned above. The low is expected to drift
northward through Monday night. The remainder of the eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb
high centered NE of the Azores near 42N16W with axis extending SW
to 26N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 17:52

000
AXNT20 KNHC 052352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A mid to upper level short-wave trough between 45W and 55W
supports a 1012 mb low centered near 29N52W. The well-defined low
pressure system is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms primarily N of 26N between 45W and 52W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for the development
of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days
while the low moves northward. Conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for development by Thursday when the low will be
moving over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. This system
has a high chance of tropical cyclone development within the next
48 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 10N20W to
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on
either side of the ITCZ east of 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1020 mb surface high
centered near 30N88W. This system covers the entire basin.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
across the basin. The ridge is forecast remain nearly stationary
across the northern Gulf waters through late Wednesday when a
cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continue to be a surface trough that
extends across the western Caribbean from 20N78W to 16N84W.
Scattered showers are noted between 78W-85W. To the south, the
EPAC's monsoon trough extends along 10N between 75W-82W supporting
scattered moderate convection is this area. Mid-level diffluent
flow supports isolated showers across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands. Expect for showers to continue across the western
Caribbean. A similar weather pattern is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring due to patches of shallow moisture
moving across the northern Caribbean waters. A mid to upper level
trough will move over the island from the west during the next 48
hours, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details about the
surface low located in the central Atlantic. In the western
portion of the basin, a 1013 mb surface low is centered near
27N75W. A surface trough extends from the low to 31N75W. Isolated
showers are noted near the low and trough. To the southeast of
the low/trough, a diffluent flow aloft supports scattered showers
between 66W-77W. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high
centered northeast of the Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/05/2017 - 17:19

000
AXNT20 KNHC 052319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A mid to upper level short-wave trough between 45W and 55W
supports a 1012 mb low centered near 29N52W. The well-defined low
pressure system is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms primarily N of 26N between 45W and 52W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for the development
of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days
while the low moves northward. Conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for development by Thursday when the low will be
moving over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. This system
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the
next 48 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 10N20W to
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on
either side of the ITCZ east of 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1020 mb surface high
centered near 30N88W. This system covers the entire basin.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
across the basin. The ridge is forecast remain nearly stationary
across the northern Gulf waters through late Wednesday when a
cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continue to be a surface trough that
extends across the western Caribbean from 20N78W to 16N84W.
Scattered showers are noted between 78W-85W. To the south, the
EPAC's monsoon trough extends along 10N between 75W-82W supporting
scattered moderate convection is this area. Mid-level diffluent
flow supports isolated showers across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands. Expect for showers to continue across the western
Caribbean. A similar weather pattern is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring due to patches of shallow moisture
moving across the northern Caribbean waters. A mid to upper level
trough will move over the island from the west during the next 48
hours, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details about the
surface low located in the central Atlantic. In the western
portion of the basin, a 1013 mb surface low is centered near
27N75W. A surface trough extends from the low to 31N75W. Isolated
showers are noted near the low and trough. To the southeast of
the low/trough, a diffluent flow aloft supports scattered showers
between 66W-77W. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high
centered northeast of the Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

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