Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 23:55
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface high developing over the Great Basin this morning will quickly weaken by the afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to a southeastward-moving shortwave trough overspreads this region. A separate positively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains should move slowly eastward through the period. A cold front will continue generally southeastward across coastal TX and the Southeast, and cold post-frontal temperatures will greatly limit fire weather concerns across the central/eastern CONUS today. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Critical conditions will be ongoing across parts of southern CA at the start of the period as an enhanced surface pressure gradient remains maximized across this region. Measured LAX-TPH gradient of -9 mb as of 04Z should further strengthen through about 12-14Z. Sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will be common across the elevated/critical delineation, with lowered RH values of 5-20% expected along with dry fine fuels. Gusts to 45-55 mph should also occur across mainly the higher terrain. The surface pressure gradient will relax by this afternoon as the surface high described above weakens, and the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to lessen through the day. This will result in a gradual reduction in elevated/critical conditions through the day, with a much diminished threat by this evening as low-level flow turns to onshore and RH values increase. Across the lower CO River Valley, elevated conditions may occur for a few hours this morning, with strong/gusty post-frontal winds of 15-20 mph combining with RH values of 15-20%. Similar to southern CA, these winds will weaken by this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across this region. ..Gleason.. 02/11/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 17:18

000
AXNT20 KNHC 102318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressures over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia
through the next week, mainly at night. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters along the 06N10W and
reaches to 01N17W. The intertropical convergence zone continues
from that point to 05S35W. Scattered showers are observed along
the monsoon trough between 10W-15W. Scattered showers are also
noted along the ITCZ west of 30W to the coast of Brazil.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extending from the western Atlantic through the central
Gulf supports moderate southeast winds, except for moderate to
fresh east winds over the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are active over the far northern Gulf
along the coast of Louisiana. The moist southerly flow is
allowing dense fog over mainly the coastal water across the
northwest Gulf, with 3 NM visibilities over offshore areas of the
northwest Gulf. No fog is currently observed elsewhere, but may
develop over the eastern Gulf early Sun.

The fog will lift across the northwest Gulf by early Sun
afternoon as a cold front moves into the region off the Texas
coast. The front will reach a position from southeast Louisiana
to near Brownsville, Texas by Sun evening, and from the western
Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon evening,
where it will stall and weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and building seas to 8 ft will follow the front Sun night and
Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish into Tue as a
ridge develops over the southeast United States. This pattern will
support fresh east winds by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions expected near the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show stable, dry air
across most of the basin, which is supporting generally fair
weather conditions. The exception is related to a weak upper
trough over the Bahamas supporting a weak surface trough over
eastern Cuba and scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over
the southern coast of Cuba south of Camaguey, and another area of
showers near Negril, in western Jamaica. Strong high pressure
north of the area continues to support fresh to strong trade winds
across the eastern and central Caribbean, as noted in recent buoy
observations and scatterometer satellite data. Seas are reaching
8 to 12 ft, highest of Colombia in the area of developing gales.

The areal extent of the strong trade winds and associated seas
will spread westward through mid week, including the Windward
Passage and lee of Cuba. Otherwise, little change is expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored N of the area by a 1042 mb high in
the north central Atlantic and a 1039 mb high southwest of the
Azores extends across the basin. The ridge is supporting moderate
to fresh east to southeast flow over the western Atlantic west of
65W, with occasional fresh to strong trade winds south of 22N with
8 to 9 ft seas. A few showers are ongoing east of the central and
northern Bahamas, related to surface trough reaching form the
central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. A cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast by late Tue, followed by fresh northerly
flow and building seas north of the Bahamas, then diminish through
mid week as the front stalls and dissipates.

Farther east over the central Atlantic, a nearly stationary upper
low is centered near 25N45W, supporting a surface trough south of
ridge along 45W from 20N to 28N. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 90 NM either side of the trough
axis. The surface trough weakens the gradient enough to support
mainly moderate to fresh trade wind flow across the central
tropical Atlantic, but seas remain 8 to 10 ft in easterly swell.

Over the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong northeast winds persist
north of 10N. The long duration and fetch of these strong winds
support fully developed seas of 8 to 11 ft. Jet dynamics aloft on
the southeast side of the upper low near 25N45W is supporting a
broad area of multi-level cloudiness probably along with a few
embedded showers from the coast of Guyana to the Cabo Verde
Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/Christensen
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 12:32
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ ...Synopsis... A surface high centered over the Great Basin Sunday morning will quickly weaken by the afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to a southeastward-moving shortwave trough overspreads this region. A separate positively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains should move slowly eastward through the period. A cold front will continue generally southeastward across coastal TX and the Southeast, and cold post-frontal temperatures will greatly limit fire weather concerns across the central/eastern CONUS on Day 2/Sunday. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Critical conditions will very likely be ongoing across parts of southern CA at the start of the Day 2/Sunday period as an enhanced surface pressure gradient remains maximized across this region. Sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will be common across the elevated/critical delineation, with lowered RH values of 8-20% expected along with dry fine fuels. The surface pressure gradient will relax by Sunday afternoon as the surface high described above weakens, and the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to lessen through the day. This will result in a gradual reduction in elevated/critical conditions through the day, with a much diminished threat by Sunday evening as low-level flow turns to onshore and RH values increase. Across the lower CO River Valley, elevated conditions may continue for a few hours Sunday morning, with strong/gusty post-frontal winds of 15-20 mph combining with RH values of 15-20%. Similar to southern CA, these winds will weaken by Sunday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 12:32
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ ...Synopsis... A surface high centered over the Great Basin Sunday morning will quickly weaken by the afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to a southeastward-moving shortwave trough overspreads this region. A separate positively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains should move slowly eastward through the period. A cold front will continue generally southeastward across coastal TX and the Southeast, and cold post-frontal temperatures will greatly limit fire weather concerns across the central/eastern CONUS on Day 2/Sunday. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Critical conditions will very likely be ongoing across parts of southern CA at the start of the Day 2/Sunday period as an enhanced surface pressure gradient remains maximized across this region. Sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will be common across the elevated/critical delineation, with lowered RH values of 8-20% expected along with dry fine fuels. The surface pressure gradient will relax by Sunday afternoon as the surface high described above weakens, and the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to lessen through the day. This will result in a gradual reduction in elevated/critical conditions through the day, with a much diminished threat by Sunday evening as low-level flow turns to onshore and RH values increase. Across the lower CO River Valley, elevated conditions may continue for a few hours Sunday morning, with strong/gusty post-frontal winds of 15-20 mph combining with RH values of 15-20%. Similar to southern CA, these winds will weaken by Sunday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 11:32

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressures over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia
this weekend. These conditions will materialize during the late
night and early morning hours. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 06N11W and
continues to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05S36W.
Scattered showers are observed along the monsoon trough between
10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered over the Atlantic, extends its ridge
across northern Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf. This scenario
supports a moderate return flow across the basin with locally
fresh winds in the Straits of Florida. In the western portion of
the basin, light to gentle southeast winds prevail. A surface
trough extends from 29N96W to 19N94W. A diffluent flow aloft to
the east of the trough supports scattered moderate convection
mainly north of 24N 89W-95W. Looking ahead, the next cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern waters by Sunday afternoon,
then extending from Mississippi SW to Veracruz Mexico on Monday
morning where it will stall and dissipate by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions expected near the coast of Colombia.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show stable, dry air
across most of the basin, which is supporting generally fair
weather conditions. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of shallow
moisture across the basin that support isolated showers, especially
across Hispaniola where a surface trough extends across the
Windward Passage. Fresh to near gale-force east winds are in the
central Caribbean, including the Windward and Mona passages. High
pressure ridging is forecast to become better established to the
north of the area, and as a result, strong trade winds are expected
to continue east of about 80W through Sunday afternoon. These
winds will extend further west to 85W through the middle of the
upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored N of the area by a 1043 mb high in
the north Atlantic and a 1039 mb high southwest of the Azores
extends across the basin. A weakness in the ridge, is analyzed as
a surface trough extending from 28N68W to 20N73W. Isolated showers
are observed within 120 nm on either side of the trough axis.
Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to enter west
Atlantic waters by early Wednesday morning. The front will then
stall and dissipate by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 09:22
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Portions of the Southern High Plains and Southwest... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Eastern portions of the elevated and critical area have been trimmed westward over eastern NM and southwest TX based on current surface observations and the location of the cold front. Latest hi-res guidance supports these changes as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track, see discussion below for more details. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... No changes made, see previous discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ ...Synopsis... As an upper trough moves southeastward across the Great Basin to the Southwest and southern Rockies/High Plains by this evening, a belt of 40-55 kt mid-level westerly winds will overspread the southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will develop across the Great Basin in the subsident regime behind the upper trough, with the pressure gradient forecast to quickly strengthen across parts of southern CA and lower CO River Valley beginning this evening and continuing through early Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward and westward across the southern Plains today, and will limit the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains and Southwest... The enhanced mid-level westerly winds mentioned previously will reach the surface this afternoon through diurnal heating/mixing processes. A broad area of strong/gusty winds around 15-30 mph will occur from parts of AZ eastward into much of NM and continuing into far west TX. Higher gusts to 35 mph will be possible, especially in higher terrain. RH values will be reduced into generally the 7-20% range across a majority of this area, supporting at least elevated conditions where fuels are dry/receptive. The ongoing critical area across parts of southern NM into far west TX has been expanded into parts of central NM and southeastern AZ, where confidence is greatest in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly to westerly winds and RH values of 7-15% for a few hours during peak diurnal heating. Some adjustments have also been made to the eastward extent of the elevated/critical delineations given increased confidence in the placement of a cold front this afternoon across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Short-term guidance continues to suggest that the surface pressure gradient will exceed critical thresholds across parts of southern CA by late this evening (mainly after 11/06Z) and continuing through the end of the period (11/12Z early Sunday morning). Elevated to critical conditions are expected across mainly the higher terrain, where sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will occur, with higher gusts of 45-55 mph likely. These low-level winds will be supported by some enhancement to the mid-level wind field. Strong downslope warming/drying will reduce RH values into the 8-20% range overnight. The ongoing critical area has been maintained with no changes for parts of Ventura, Los Angeles, southwestern San Bernardino, western Riverside, and Orange counties where confidence is greatest in sub-15% RH values occurring. Across the lower CO River Valley, strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph will likely occur tonight into early Sunday morning behind a southward-moving cold front. RH values should also fall into the 15-20% range for a few hours, which warrants the continuation of the elevated area given dry fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 09:22
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Portions of the Southern High Plains and Southwest... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Eastern portions of the elevated and critical area have been trimmed westward over eastern NM and southwest TX based on current surface observations and the location of the cold front. Latest hi-res guidance supports these changes as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track, see discussion below for more details. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... No changes made, see previous discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ ...Synopsis... As an upper trough moves southeastward across the Great Basin to the Southwest and southern Rockies/High Plains by this evening, a belt of 40-55 kt mid-level westerly winds will overspread the southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will develop across the Great Basin in the subsident regime behind the upper trough, with the pressure gradient forecast to quickly strengthen across parts of southern CA and lower CO River Valley beginning this evening and continuing through early Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward and westward across the southern Plains today, and will limit the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains and Southwest... The enhanced mid-level westerly winds mentioned previously will reach the surface this afternoon through diurnal heating/mixing processes. A broad area of strong/gusty winds around 15-30 mph will occur from parts of AZ eastward into much of NM and continuing into far west TX. Higher gusts to 35 mph will be possible, especially in higher terrain. RH values will be reduced into generally the 7-20% range across a majority of this area, supporting at least elevated conditions where fuels are dry/receptive. The ongoing critical area across parts of southern NM into far west TX has been expanded into parts of central NM and southeastern AZ, where confidence is greatest in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly to westerly winds and RH values of 7-15% for a few hours during peak diurnal heating. Some adjustments have also been made to the eastward extent of the elevated/critical delineations given increased confidence in the placement of a cold front this afternoon across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Short-term guidance continues to suggest that the surface pressure gradient will exceed critical thresholds across parts of southern CA by late this evening (mainly after 11/06Z) and continuing through the end of the period (11/12Z early Sunday morning). Elevated to critical conditions are expected across mainly the higher terrain, where sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will occur, with higher gusts of 45-55 mph likely. These low-level winds will be supported by some enhancement to the mid-level wind field. Strong downslope warming/drying will reduce RH values into the 8-20% range overnight. The ongoing critical area has been maintained with no changes for parts of Ventura, Los Angeles, southwestern San Bernardino, western Riverside, and Orange counties where confidence is greatest in sub-15% RH values occurring. Across the lower CO River Valley, strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph will likely occur tonight into early Sunday morning behind a southward-moving cold front. RH values should also fall into the 15-20% range for a few hours, which warrants the continuation of the elevated area given dry fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 05:51

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These winds are
expected to be strongest during the late night and early morning
hours over the weekend. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 07N13W
and continues to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from that last coordinate
to 01N30W to 01S46W. Scattered showers are near the Gulf of
Guinea N of the Equator E of the prime meridian and from 4S to
10S between 25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered in the NW Atlc extends a ridge axis
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf, thus supporting
the continuation of moderate return flow in the eastern basin with
locally fresh winds in the Straits of Florida. In the western
basin, a reduced pressure gradient supports light to gentle SE
flow. CIRA LPW imagery show low level moisture advection from the
Caribbean Sea, which along with a diffluent environment aloft
support scattered to isolated showers west of 91W and within 175
nm off the coast of Mississippi. High humidity in the NW Gulf
supports dense fog N of 26N W of 93W and potentially within 175 nm
off the coast of Mexico. Looking ahead, the next cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern waters by Sunday afternoon,
extend from Mississippi SW to Veracruz Mexico Monday morning where
it will stall and dissipate through Wednesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. GOES-16
water vapor imagery continue to show stable, dry air across most
of the basin, which is supporting generally fair weather
conditions. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of shallow moisture
across the basin that may support isolated passing showers,
especially across Hispaniola where a surface trough races west.
Fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds are in the central
Caribbean, including the Windward and Mona passages. High
pressure ridging is forecast to become better established to the
north of the area, and as a result, strong trade winds are
expected to continue east of about 80W through Sunday afternoon.
These winds will extend further west to 85W through the middle of
the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging centered N of the area by a 1039 mb high in
the NW Atlc and a 1039 mb high SW of the Azores extends S across
the SW N Atlc, central and eastern basin, generally supporting
fair weather. A weakness in the ridge, is analyzed as a surface
trough extending from near 27N66W SW to inland central
Hispaniola. Scattered showers are possible within 120 nm either
side of the trough axis. Looking ahead, the next cold front is
forecast to enter SW N Atlc waters by early Wednesday morning. The
front will then stall and dissipate by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/NR

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 01:44
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface high centered over the Great Basin Sunday morning will quickly weaken by the afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to a southeastward-moving shortwave trough overspreads this region. A separate positively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains should move slowly eastward through the period. A cold front will continue generally southeastward across coastal TX and the Southeast, and cold post-frontal temperatures will greatly limit fire weather concerns across the central/eastern CONUS on Day 2/Sunday. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Critical conditions will very likely be ongoing across parts of southern CA at the start of the Day 2/Sunday period as an enhanced surface pressure gradient remains maximized across this region. Sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will be common across the elevated/critical delineation, with lowered RH values of 8-20% expected along with dry fine fuels. The surface pressure gradient will relax by Sunday afternoon as the surface high described above weakens, and the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to lessen through the day. This will result in a gradual reduction in elevated/critical conditions through the day, with a much diminished threat by Sunday evening as low-level flow turns to onshore and RH values increase. Across the lower CO River Valley, elevated conditions may continue for a few hours Sunday morning, with strong/gusty post-frontal winds of 15-20 mph combining with RH values of 15-20%. Similar to southern CA, these winds will weaken by Sunday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across this region. ..Gleason.. 02/10/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 01:44
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A surface high centered over the Great Basin Sunday morning will quickly weaken by the afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to a southeastward-moving shortwave trough overspreads this region. A separate positively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains should move slowly eastward through the period. A cold front will continue generally southeastward across coastal TX and the Southeast, and cold post-frontal temperatures will greatly limit fire weather concerns across the central/eastern CONUS on Day 2/Sunday. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Critical conditions will very likely be ongoing across parts of southern CA at the start of the Day 2/Sunday period as an enhanced surface pressure gradient remains maximized across this region. Sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will be common across the elevated/critical delineation, with lowered RH values of 8-20% expected along with dry fine fuels. The surface pressure gradient will relax by Sunday afternoon as the surface high described above weakens, and the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to lessen through the day. This will result in a gradual reduction in elevated/critical conditions through the day, with a much diminished threat by Sunday evening as low-level flow turns to onshore and RH values increase. Across the lower CO River Valley, elevated conditions may continue for a few hours Sunday morning, with strong/gusty post-frontal winds of 15-20 mph combining with RH values of 15-20%. Similar to southern CA, these winds will weaken by Sunday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across this region. ..Gleason.. 02/10/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 01:41
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... As an upper trough moves southeastward across the Great Basin to the Southwest and southern Rockies/High Plains by this evening, a belt of 40-55 kt mid-level westerly winds will overspread the southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will develop across the Great Basin in the subsident regime behind the upper trough, with the pressure gradient forecast to quickly strengthen across parts of southern CA and lower CO River Valley beginning this evening and continuing through early Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward and westward across the southern Plains today, and will limit the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains and Southwest... The enhanced mid-level westerly winds mentioned previously will reach the surface this afternoon through diurnal heating/mixing processes. A broad area of strong/gusty winds around 15-30 mph will occur from parts of AZ eastward into much of NM and continuing into far west TX. Higher gusts to 35 mph will be possible, especially in higher terrain. RH values will be reduced into generally the 7-20% range across a majority of this area, supporting at least elevated conditions where fuels are dry/receptive. The ongoing critical area across parts of southern NM into far west TX has been expanded into parts of central NM and southeastern AZ, where confidence is greatest in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly to westerly winds and RH values of 7-15% for a few hours during peak diurnal heating. Some adjustments have also been made to the eastward extent of the elevated/critical delineations given increased confidence in the placement of a cold front this afternoon across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Short-term guidance continues to suggest that the surface pressure gradient will exceed critical thresholds across parts of southern CA by late this evening (mainly after 11/06Z) and continuing through the end of the period (11/12Z early Sunday morning). Elevated to critical conditions are expected across mainly the higher terrain, where sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will occur, with higher gusts of 45-55 mph likely. These low-level winds will be supported by some enhancement to the mid-level wind field. Strong downslope warming/drying will reduce RH values into the 8-20% range overnight. The ongoing critical area has been maintained with no changes for parts of Ventura, Los Angeles, southwestern San Bernardino, western Riverside, and Orange counties where confidence is greatest in sub-15% RH values occurring. Across the lower CO River Valley, strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph will likely occur tonight into early Sunday morning behind a southward-moving cold front. RH values should also fall into the 15-20% range for a few hours, which warrants the continuation of the elevated area given dry fuels across this region. ..Gleason.. 02/10/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 23:55

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These
winds are expected to be strongest during the late night and
early morning hours over the next couple of days. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 07N13W
and continues to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from that last coordinate
to 01N30W to 01S45W. Scattered heavy showers are near the Gulf
of Guinea N of the Equator E of the prime meridian. Scattered
showers are occurring from 4S to 10S between 25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered in the NW Atlc extends a ridge axis
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf, thus supporting
the continuation of moderate return flow in the eastern basin with
locally fresh winds in the Straits of Florida. In the western
basin, a reduced pressure gradient supports light to gentle SE
flow. CIRA LPW imagery show low level moisture advection from the
Caribbean Sea, which along with a diffluent environment aloft
support scattered to isolated showers west of 91W and within 175
nm off the coast of Mississippi. High humidity in the NW Gulf
supports dense fog N of 26N W of 93W and potentially within 175 nm
off the coast of Mexico. Looking ahead, the next cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern waters by Sunday afternoon,
extend from Mississippi SW to Veracruz Mexico Monday morning where
it will stall and dissipate through Wednesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. GOES-16
water vapor imagery continue to show stable, dry air across most
of the basin, which is supporting generally fair weather
conditions. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of shallow moisture
across the basin that may support isolated passing showers,
especially across Hispaniola where a surface trough races west.
Fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds are in the central
Caribbean, including the Windward and Mona passages. High
pressure ridging is forecast to become better established to the
north of the area, and as a result, strong trade winds are
expected to continue east of about 80W through Sunday afternoon.
These winds will extend further west to 85W through the middle of
the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging centered N of the area by a 1038 mb high in
the NW Atlc and a 1039 mb high SW of the Azores extends S across
the SW N Atlc, central and eastern basin, generally supporting
fair weather. A weakness in the ridge, is analyzed as a surface
trough extending from near 28N64W SW to inland central Hispaniola.
Isolated passing showers are possible within 120 nm either side of
the trough axis. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to
enter SW N Atlc waters by early Wednesday morning. The front will
then stall and dissipate by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 18:07

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100006 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0706 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These
winds are expected to be strongest during the late night and
early morning hours over the next couple of days. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 05N09W
and extends to 01N18W, where scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ begins continuing to 05S34W. Numerous heavy showers are
near the Gulf of Guinea N of the Equator E of 3E. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 4S to 09S between 24W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front is dissipating over the northern Florida Peninsula,
however there is no convection associated with it. Weak surface
ridging is across the basin providing moderate return winds E of
90W and light to gentle winds W of 90W. A weakness in the ridge
is analyzed as a surface trough along 28N95W to the central Bay
of Campeche. The trough is supporting scattered showers W of 90W
while upper level diffluence supports scattered showers in the
NE Gulf. Looking ahead to the weekend, the next cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern waters by late Sunday, and
surface winds will turn southerly and southwesterly ahead of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Generally
quiet weather continue across the Caribbean. Satellite images
indicate that only patches of clouds are scattered across the
region. This fair weather is supported by widespread dry air
aloft, as evident in water vapor images. Fresh to strong trade
winds are occurring mainly in the central basin pulsing to gale
force near the coast of Colombia as described in the special
features section. High pressure ridging is forecast to become
better established to the north of the area this weekend, and a
result, strong trade winds are expected to continue east of
about 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is in the SW N Atlantic, which enters the
discussion area near 30N70W and extends to the northeast coast
of Florida. Isolated showers are likely within about 90 n mi
either side of the front. This boundary is expected to weaken
later today and Saturday. Behind the front, a strong 1035 mb
high pressure center is shifting eastward and is now located
just off the mid-Atlantic coast. A weak surface trough is
producing isolated showers near its axis, which is located from
29N63W to 24N65W. Farther east, an upper- level trough over the
central Atlantic is producing a large swath of moisture aloft
from 10-20N between 25W-45W, but most of this is only in the
form of cloudiness. Otherwise, a 1039 mb high located near
37N34W dominates the pattern and is producing a large area of
moderate to strong trade winds across most of the east and
central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 16:29
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2018 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast is on track and no updates are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move southeastward across the Great Basin to the Southwest and southern Rockies/High Plains by Saturday evening. A belt of 45-55 kt mid-level westerly winds will overspread the southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure should develop across the Great Basin in the subsident regime behind the upper trough, with the pressure gradient forecast to quickly strengthen across parts of southern CA and lower CO River Valley from Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward and westward across the southern Plains through the day, and will demarcate the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains into the Southwest... The enhanced mid-level westerly winds described above will reach the surface Saturday afternoon through diurnal heating/mixing processes. A broad area of strong/gusty winds around 15-30 mph will likely occur from parts of AZ eastward into much of western, central, and southern NM, and continuing into far west TX. RH values should become reduced into the 10-20% range across a majority of this area, supporting at least elevated conditions where fuels are dry/receptive. A critical area has been introduced across parts of southern NM into far west TX, where confidence is greatest in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained westerly winds and RH values of 10-15% for a few hours during peak diurnal heating. There is still some uncertainty in the placement of a cold front across the southern High Plains late Saturday afternoon. Depending on the location of this front, the eastern extent of the elevated and critical delineations may need to be adjusted in later updates. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Consensus of short-term guidance suggests that the surface pressure gradient will exceed critical thresholds across parts of southern CA by late Saturday evening and continuing through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). Elevated to critical conditions are expected across mainly the higher terrain, where sustained northeasterly winds of 15-30 mph will occur, with higher gusts of 45-55 mph likely. These low-level winds will be supported by some enhancement to the mid-level wind field. Strong downslope warming/drying will reduce RH values into the 8-20% range overnight. A critical area has been introduced for portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, southwestern San Bernardino, western Riverside, and Orange counties where confidence is greatest in sub-15% RH values occurring. Across the lower CO River Valley, strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph will likely occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning behind a southward-moving cold front. RH values should also fall into the 15-20% range for a few hours, which warrants an elevated area given dry fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 12:08
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2018 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... The previous forecast is on track and no updates are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move southeastward across the Great Basin to the Southwest and southern Rockies/High Plains by Saturday evening. A belt of 45-55 kt mid-level westerly winds will overspread the southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure should develop across the Great Basin in the subsident regime behind the upper trough, with the pressure gradient forecast to quickly strengthen across parts of southern CA and lower CO River Valley from Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward and westward across the southern Plains through the day, and will demarcate the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains into the Southwest... The enhanced mid-level westerly winds described above will reach the surface Saturday afternoon through diurnal heating/mixing processes. A broad area of strong/gusty winds around 15-30 mph will likely occur from parts of AZ eastward into much of western, central, and southern NM, and continuing into far west TX. RH values should become reduced into the 10-20% range across a majority of this area, supporting at least elevated conditions where fuels are dry/receptive. A critical area has been introduced across parts of southern NM into far west TX, where confidence is greatest in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained westerly winds and RH values of 10-15% for a few hours during peak diurnal heating. There is still some uncertainty in the placement of a cold front across the southern High Plains late Saturday afternoon. Depending on the location of this front, the eastern extent of the elevated and critical delineations may need to be adjusted in later updates. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Consensus of short-term guidance suggests that the surface pressure gradient will exceed critical thresholds across parts of southern CA by late Saturday evening and continuing through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). Elevated to critical conditions are expected across mainly the higher terrain, where sustained northeasterly winds of 15-30 mph will occur, with higher gusts of 45-55 mph likely. These low-level winds will be supported by some enhancement to the mid-level wind field. Strong downslope warming/drying will reduce RH values into the 8-20% range overnight. A critical area has been introduced for portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, southwestern San Bernardino, western Riverside, and Orange counties where confidence is greatest in sub-15% RH values occurring. Across the lower CO River Valley, strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph will likely occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning behind a southward-moving cold front. RH values should also fall into the 15-20% range for a few hours, which warrants an elevated area given dry fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 12:08
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2018 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... The previous forecast is on track and no updates are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move southeastward across the Great Basin to the Southwest and southern Rockies/High Plains by Saturday evening. A belt of 45-55 kt mid-level westerly winds will overspread the southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure should develop across the Great Basin in the subsident regime behind the upper trough, with the pressure gradient forecast to quickly strengthen across parts of southern CA and lower CO River Valley from Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward and westward across the southern Plains through the day, and will demarcate the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions across the southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains into the Southwest... The enhanced mid-level westerly winds described above will reach the surface Saturday afternoon through diurnal heating/mixing processes. A broad area of strong/gusty winds around 15-30 mph will likely occur from parts of AZ eastward into much of western, central, and southern NM, and continuing into far west TX. RH values should become reduced into the 10-20% range across a majority of this area, supporting at least elevated conditions where fuels are dry/receptive. A critical area has been introduced across parts of southern NM into far west TX, where confidence is greatest in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained westerly winds and RH values of 10-15% for a few hours during peak diurnal heating. There is still some uncertainty in the placement of a cold front across the southern High Plains late Saturday afternoon. Depending on the location of this front, the eastern extent of the elevated and critical delineations may need to be adjusted in later updates. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Consensus of short-term guidance suggests that the surface pressure gradient will exceed critical thresholds across parts of southern CA by late Saturday evening and continuing through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). Elevated to critical conditions are expected across mainly the higher terrain, where sustained northeasterly winds of 15-30 mph will occur, with higher gusts of 45-55 mph likely. These low-level winds will be supported by some enhancement to the mid-level wind field. Strong downslope warming/drying will reduce RH values into the 8-20% range overnight. A critical area has been introduced for portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, southwestern San Bernardino, western Riverside, and Orange counties where confidence is greatest in sub-15% RH values occurring. Across the lower CO River Valley, strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph will likely occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning behind a southward-moving cold front. RH values should also fall into the 15-20% range for a few hours, which warrants an elevated area given dry fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 11:18

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These
winds are expected to be strongest during the late night and early
morning hours over the next couple of days. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 05N09W
and extends to 03N14W, where scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ begins. The ITCZ axis dips below the equator around 24W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring between the equator and
4N between 9W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A warm front is dissipating over the north-central and
northeastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are
occurring in association with this boundary, generally north of
25N between 84W-89W. Over the western portion of the area, a
surface trough has been stationary with its axis located about 120
n mi off the coast of Mexico and Texas. More significant shower
activity and a few thunderstorms are occurring near this feature,
aided by an upper-level jet. Fair weather exists across the
remainder of the area, with only isolated showers expected.
Scatterometer data and surface observations indicate that winds
are from the east and mainly in the 10-15 kt range across the
area, except in the Straits of Florida where easterly winds are
stronger. Looking ahead to the weekend, the next cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern waters by late Sunday, and
surface winds will turn southerly and southwesterly ahead of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Generally
quiet weather continue across the Caribbean. Satellite images
indicate that only patches of clouds are scattered across the
region. This fair weather is supported by widespread dry air
aloft, as evident in water vapor images. Fresh to strong trade
winds are occurring area-wide, and they are pulsing to gale force
near the coast of Colombia as described above. High pressure
ridging is forecast to become better established to the north of
the area this weekend, and a result, strong trade winds are
expected to continue east of about 80W.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A front has stalled over the western Atlantic, which enters the
discussion area near 32N67W and extends to the northeast coast of
Florida. Scattered showers are likely within about 180 n mi north
of the front. This boundary is expected to weaken later today and
Saturday. Behind the front, a strong 1035 mb high pressure center
is shifting eastward and is now located just off the mid-Atlantic
coast. A weak surface trough is producing isolated showers near
its axis, which is located from 29N63W to 24N65W. Farther east, an
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is producing a large
swath of moisture aloft from 10-20N between 25W-45W, but most of
this is only in the form of cloudiness. Otherwise, a 1039 mb high
located near 37N34W dominates the pattern and is producing a
large area of moderate to strong trade winds across most of the
east and central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 09:42
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should transition to broadly cyclonic over the CONUS today as a shortwave trough moves southeastward over the Pacific Northwest. Mid-level westerly flow should gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with lee troughing extending southward from this low across eastern NM. A cold front will move southward across the central/southern Plains through the period. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... In response to a strengthening surface pressure gradient and modestly increasing mid-level westerly winds, sustained surface winds around 15 to locally 20 mph appear likely across part of eastern NM into west TX this afternoon. Downslope warming/drying at low levels will reduce RH values into generally the 10-20% range for a few hours through peak heating. Coupled with dry/dormant fuels, these expected meteorological conditions support an elevated designation across this region. The lack of even stronger forecast winds precludes a critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 09:42
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2018/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow should transition to broadly cyclonic over the CONUS today as a shortwave trough moves southeastward over the Pacific Northwest. Mid-level westerly flow should gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface, an area of low pressure will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with lee troughing extending southward from this low across eastern NM. A cold front will move southward across the central/southern Plains through the period. ...Portions of the Southern High Plains... In response to a strengthening surface pressure gradient and modestly increasing mid-level westerly winds, sustained surface winds around 15 to locally 20 mph appear likely across part of eastern NM into west TX this afternoon. Downslope warming/drying at low levels will reduce RH values into generally the 10-20% range for a few hours through peak heating. Coupled with dry/dormant fuels, these expected meteorological conditions support an elevated designation across this region. The lack of even stronger forecast winds precludes a critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 02/09/2018 - 06:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower
pressure over northwestern South America will continue to support
winds pulsing to minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia. These winds are expected to be strongest during the late
night and early morning hours during the next few days. Please
read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the Liberia and the Ivory
Coast near 05N09W and extends to 02N15W, where scatterometer data
indicates the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ axis dips below the equator
around 23W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring between
the equator and 3N between 9W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, westward
to 25N90W and then south-southwestward into the Bay of Campeche.
A trough lies near the coast and Texas along 96W. The latest
satellite images show multi-layer clouds with scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms exist elsewhere S of 25N between 90W-95W.
Otherwise, scattered cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring
across the remainder of the region. Looking ahead, the stationary
front will gradually dissipate this weekend. The next cold front
will move off the Texas coast by late Sunday, and then become
stationary from near the Mississippi Delta to the western Bay of
Campeche on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Mid- to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the NW
Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize.
Broken to overcast low-level clouds and possible isolated showers
are seen N of 15N and W of 83W, S of 15N between 71W-74W and over
portions of the eastern Caribbean. These clouds and showers are
moving quickly westward in strong trade wind flow.

The ongoing strong trade wind flow will continue over the south-
central Caribbean through Sunday, and nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale-force along the coast of Colombia are forecast during the
next couple of days. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected
elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north-
central passages through today. These conditions will persist
through Monday night. Strong trade winds and building seas are
forecast across the tropical waters north of 11N through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 32N69W southwestward to near
29N75W, where it becomes stationary and extends to near Stuart,
Florida. Isolated showers are occurring north of 28N west of 70W.
Similar activity lies near a surface trough that lies from 22N60W
to 29N62W. Strong high pressure is building eastward across the
region to the west of the front. Farther east, a nearly
stationary 1039 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 36N34W
with a ridge axis stretching southwestward across the central
Atlantic to the east of the front discussed above.

Looking ahead, the frontal boundary over the western Atlantic
is forecast to stall and weaken from Bermuda to southeastern
Florida later today. The remnants of the front should lift
northward across the waters on Saturday. Another cold front is
forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by late Monday.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected to continue along
the northern coast of Hispaniola and near the Windward Passage
through tonight. A tightening pressure gradient should support
strong trade winds across the waters S of 23N by late Saturday.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre/Cangialosi
Categories: Weather

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