Weather

Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 15:35
...LEE LOSING ORGANIZATION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Lee was located near 15.0, -42.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 16

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 15:35
...LEE LOSING ORGANIZATION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...
Location: 15.0°N 42.3°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Tropical Depression Lee Information by ATCF XML Prototype

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 15:34
Issued at Mon, 18 Sep 2017 20:34:52 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 14:45
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM...OK PANHANDLE...EASTERN CO...AND WESTERN KS...... The Critical fire weather area across northeast NM, the OK Panhandle, eastern CO, and western KS has been expanded slightly northwestward/northward farther into CO and KS. While critical conditions may develop over an even larger area, pockets of recent precipitation continue to limit confidence in fuel receptiveness. The current Critical fire weather delineation represents the most likely area to meet/exceed critical fire weather thresholds. Additional refinements to the Critical area may be needed in a future forecast if fuels appear more receptive over a broader area. Minor adjustments were also made to the surrounding Elevated fire weather area to include portions of southeast WY. Latest guidance supports elevated fire weather conditions being met across this area for a few hours prior to cold frontal passage -- and subsequent RH increases -- in the afternoon. ..Elliott.. 09/18/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ ...Synopsis... Within the deep large-scale mid/upper trough over the west, one embedded shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Tuesday, while another shortwave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cyclone and attendant trough will move eastward across the Plains. Dry and windy conditions will overspread much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains, resulting in a broad area of elevated to potentially critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region into the Southern/Central High Plains... As low/midlevel flow increases in response to the upper trough and associated surface low, relatively strong low-level southwesterly flow is expected to develop from the Southwest into the High Plains. In conjunction with the increased winds (sustained at 20-30 mph in many locations), substantial drying/mixing will result in the development of potentially critical RH values from northeast AZ eastward into western KS. The primary mitigating factor for the fire weather threat in this region is uncertainty regarding fuel receptivity in some areas. Due to recent rainfall and the lack of substantial long-term drought over most of the region, only a small critical area has been delineated across portions of the southern High Plains, where confidence is greatest in a several-hour period of critical wind/RH. However, fine fuels will cure quickly given the dry/windy conditions, and some expansion to the critical area may become necessary as fuel conditions are reevaluated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 12:35

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 18/1500 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 230 nm east-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 33.9N 71.1W,
moving north at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
977 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Convection associated with Jose is north of the discussion area.
Jose is forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone
through Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 18/1500 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located about 52 nm east of
Martinique near 14.7N 60.1W, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 07N-18N between 54W-64W. Hurricane
warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maria is
forecast to intensify further more over the next 48 hours. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 18/1500 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 920 nm
west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 14.1N 40.6W, moving west-
northwest at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is displaced east of the center
within 300 nm of 14N40W. Lee will slowly weaken during the next
24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with its axis from
19N76W to 09N76W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region
of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate convection associated with this wave is observed between
75W-82W.

A tropical wave is moving across southern Mexico with its axis
from 22N93W to 12N94W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a
region of high moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface
trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the southern portion of the wave
affecting the EPAC waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
19N16W to 14N34W. No significant convection is related to this
feature at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the basin. At upper levels, an
anticyclone is over the western Gulf near 25N95W. An upper-level
trough is over the east Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong
subsidence and minimal convection is over the region. Expect
scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche today as the tropical
waves moves through.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Maria is approaching the eastern Caribbean enhancing
convection east of 63W. Please see the section above for details.
A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean. Refer to the
section above for details. Moderate trades prevail across most of
the basin, strongest in the south-central Caribbean. Expect for the
tropical wave to continue moving west with minimal convection.
Hurricane Maria is expected to move into the northeast Caribbean
and head toward Puerto Rico during the next 48-72 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect for
diurnal convection to develop each afternoon over the next few
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria and T.D. Lee. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad
surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 11:57
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z An Elevated fire weather area has been introduced across portions of central/southeast WY and far NW CO, where strong/gusty winds and reduced RH values will overlap receptive fuels. Regional 16Z surface observations across this area indicate mixing has commenced, with pre-frontal westerly/southwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Furthermore, latest guidance suggests modest increases in the wind field through the afternoon, with sustained surface winds peaking between 20-30 mph. Despite relatively cool temperatures across this area, a dry low-level airmass (e.g., dewpoints in the lower 20s) will yield afternoon RH reductions to between 15-20%. While locally-critical conditions could develop, displacement of the strongest winds (across central WY) from the lowest RH values (across eastern WY) is expected to keep the fire weather threat Elevated. No changes were made to the Elevated fire weather area over the northern Great Basin. The potential for near-critical fire weather conditions is still possible across this area. Though, low confidence in critical RH reductions (i.e., to RH values less than 15%) amidst a relatively cool airmass continues to preclude critical designation. While strong/gusty winds are expected over southwest WY, southeast ID, and northern UT, RH reductions are expected to be less (e.g., minimum RH values near 25%) than over the Elevated areas immediately to the west/east. Thus, this region was not included in the Elevated fire weather area. ..Elliott.. 09/18/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper trough is expected to amplify and move eastward across the western U.S. today, as an associated cold front moves through portions of the interior Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. These features will result in cooler conditions and increasing precipitation potential across much of that region, though dry and windy conditions across portions of NV/UT/ID will result in some fire weather threat this afternoon. ...Northern Great Basin... Strong low-level west-southwesterly flow is expected to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin this afternoon. While temperatures may be somewhat cooler than previous days, sufficient heating/mixing within a dry airmass will result in the potential for near-critical RH values of around 15% at peak heating. In conjunction with the low RH, sustained winds of 20-30 mph will result in the potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Due to lingering uncertainty related to the relatively cool temperatures and duration of critically low RH, no critical area has been included with this outlook, though an upgrade is possible as short-term observational and model data is assessed prior to the Day 1 update forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

Tropical Depression Lee Graphics

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 09:46

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 14:46:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 14:46:03 GMT

Tropical Depression Lee Information by ATCF XML Prototype

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 09:41
Issued at Mon, 18 Sep 2017 14:41:25 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.

Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 09:40
...LEE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Lee was located near 14.1, -40.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 15

Weather - Hurricane Harvey - Mon, 09/18/2017 - 09:40
...LEE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
Location: 14.1°N 40.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

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