Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 18:02

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight gradient between a strong
surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northern South America will continue to support gale-force
winds near the coast of Colombia. These conditions are expected
continue through late this week. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 05N09W and continues to 01N18W where latest
scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and dips below the
Equator at 20W. It resumes southwestward to the coast of Brazil
near 05S36W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm S of
the axis between 09W-14W, and within 90 nm S of the axis between
14W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the western panhandle of Florida to
27N90W, then stationary to the western Bay of Campeche. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the stationary boundary. A
ridge is across eastern Mexico and the NW Gulf behind the front.
Strong northerly winds are south of 25N by the coast of Mexico.
Moist southerly winds advecting northward over the gulf from the
Caribbean in response to a mid to upper shortwave trough sliding
eastward across the NE Gulf, are producing widespread showers in
the northern gulf E of the trough. The front will weaken tonight
with the frontal remnants lifting back N as a warm front on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

The GOES-16 low to mid-level water vapor imagery shows generally
dry and stable atmospheric conditions across the basin. Visible
imagery depicts patches of shallow moisture advecting westward
over much of the basin, including portions of Hispaniola. Brief
passing isolated showers are with these clouds. A strong ridge N
of the area anchored by a 1038 mb high center over the N central
Atlantic extends across the northern half of the Caribbean, with
the associated pressure gradient supporting the continuation of
fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central basin
as indicated by latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range
of 12 to 18 ft near the Colombia coast and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to near gale-force are also occurring through the Atlc
passages and will continue through mid week. Otherwise, little
change is expected through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface high pressure over the area is associated with a
1038 mb high center over the N central Atlantic is supporting
fresh to strong E-NE winds over most of the region, except close
to the ridge axis north of 25N. An area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms is noted from 14N to 21N and between 45W
and 60W in association with broad troughing that stretches from
a cyclonic circulation just SW of the Canary Islands to 23N40W
to 21N52W and as a shear axis to the northern Caribbean Sea. The
shower activity should move across the Leeward Islands tonight
through Tue night.

A cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast
by Tue morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop ahead of the front and impact NW waters tonight into
Tue as an upper level trough shifts eastward from the NE Gulf.
The front will then stall and dissipate by Thu morning. The next
cold front is forecast to enter the NW forecast waters by early
Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 12:24
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/12/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over central CA Tuesday morning should develop only slowly southward through the period as an upstream shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will remain over the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, weak lee troughing is forecast to develop over the High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains... There appears to be some potential for strong/gusty southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph to develop across parts of eastern NM into southeastern CO, southwestern KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles Tuesday afternoon. This would mainly be due to enhanced mid-level winds present around 700-500 mb becoming mixed to the surface. However, short-term guidance is not consistent in the strength of these winds, and RH values may become only marginally reduced to around 20-25% through peak heating. Given the uncertainty regarding wind speeds and the limited lowering of RH values, will defer possible introduction of an elevated area to a later update. ...Portions of the Southwest... Locally strong/gusty southerly winds may occur Tuesday afternoon across parts of southeastern AZ into southern NM, with sustained wind speeds up to 15-20 mph. RH values may also become lowered to around 19-25% on an isolated basis across this area. However, the duration of these locally strong/gusty winds appears too limited in combination with the marginal reduction in RH values to warrant an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 12:24
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/12/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over central CA Tuesday morning should develop only slowly southward through the period as an upstream shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will remain over the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, weak lee troughing is forecast to develop over the High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains... There appears to be some potential for strong/gusty southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph to develop across parts of eastern NM into southeastern CO, southwestern KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles Tuesday afternoon. This would mainly be due to enhanced mid-level winds present around 700-500 mb becoming mixed to the surface. However, short-term guidance is not consistent in the strength of these winds, and RH values may become only marginally reduced to around 20-25% through peak heating. Given the uncertainty regarding wind speeds and the limited lowering of RH values, will defer possible introduction of an elevated area to a later update. ...Portions of the Southwest... Locally strong/gusty southerly winds may occur Tuesday afternoon across parts of southeastern AZ into southern NM, with sustained wind speeds up to 15-20 mph. RH values may also become lowered to around 19-25% on an isolated basis across this area. However, the duration of these locally strong/gusty winds appears too limited in combination with the marginal reduction in RH values to warrant an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 11:56

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. These
conditions are expected continue through late this week. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 05N09W and continues to 01N18W where latest
scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and dips below the
Equator at 20W. It resumes southwestward to the coast of Brazil
near 05S36W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm S of
the axis between 09W-14W, and within 90 nm S of the axis between
14W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21Z, a cold front extends from near the Destin/Santa Rosa
area southwestward to 27N91W to 22N95W to inland the coast Mexico
just S of Veracruz. A pre-frontal trough is along a position from
27N90W to 23N96W to inland the coast of Mexico near Coatzacoalcos.
Another trough is ahead of the front along a position from 29N84W
to 27N88W. A 1027 mb high center is analyzed over eastern Mexico
near Ciudad Mante. Associated strong ridging is surging southward
across eastern Mexico and over the NW Gulf behind the cold front.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the front is producing
fresh to near gale-force northerly winds over the western gulf
waters. The minimal gale force winds that were earlier observed
near the coast of Tampico diminished to strong winds as of 15Z.
Moist southerly winds advecting northward over the gulf from the
Caribbean in combination with a mid to upper shortwave trough
sliding eastward across the western Florida panhandle and far NE
Gulf continues to result in scattered moderate isolated strong
convection over the northern gulf waters along and to the E of
both the cold front and trough, roughly N of about 26N and between
84W-86W. Latest satellite lightning data reveals frequent strikes
primarily in the southern and central sections of this area of
convection. This activity may be attended by strong gusty winds as
quickly moves eastward. Elsewhere, isolated showers are along and
within 90 nm E of the pre-frontal trough. The scattered moderate
isolated strong convective activity is forecast to move E of the
Gulf of Mexico late tonight as the mid/upper trough slides to E of
NE Florida.

Strong high pressure over the north Atlc continue to extends SW
across the eastern half of the Gulf allowing for light to
moderate E to SE winds ahead of the front. Fresh easterly winds
are over the Straits of Florida. The cold front is forecast to
become stationary this afternoon from northern Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche while it weakens. The frontal remnants are
expected to lift back N as a warm front on Tue. The fresh to near
gale-force winds over the western waters will significantly
diminish tonight and through Tue. Seas associated with these winds
subside tonight into Tue as a ridge develops over the southeastern
United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

The GOES-16 low to mid-level water vapor imagery continues to
suggest generally dry and stable atmospheric conditions continue
across the basin. Latest GOES-16 visible imagery depicts patches
of shallow moisture, in the form of broken to scattered low
clouds, advecting westward over much of the basin, including
portions of Hispaniola. Brief passing isolated showers are with
these clouds. A strong ridge N of the area anchored by a 1038 mb
high center over the N central Atlantic extends southward across
the northern half of the Caribbean, with the associated pressure
gradient supporting the continuation of fresh to strong trade
winds across the eastern and central basin as indicated by latest
scatterometer data. Seas are in the range of 12 to 18 ft near the
Colombia coast and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere. Fresh to near gale-force
are also occurring through the Atlc passages and will continue
through mid week. Otherwise, little change is expected through
mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface high pressure over the area is associated with a
1038 mb high center over the N central Atlantic at 35N48W moving
to the SW. The ridge is supporting fresh to strong E-NE winds
over most of the basin, except over NW forecast waters N of 24N
where E-SE winds are mainly moderate. An area of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms is noted over the tropical Atlantic
waters from 14N to 21N and between 45W and 60W in association
with broad mid to upper troughing that stretches from a cyclonic
circulation just SW of the Canary Islands to 23N40W to 21N52W and
as a shear axis from there to the northern Caribbean Sea. The
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity should move across
the Leeward Islands tonight through Tue night.

A cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast
by Tue morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to form out ahead of the front and impact the NW waters tonight
into Tue as a mid/upper level trough translates eastward from the
NE Gulf to NE Florida and the far NW waters. The front then will
stall before dissipating Thu morning. The next cold front is
forecast to enter the NW forecast waters by early Saturday
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 10:17
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/12/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the northern Great Basin will develop southward to central CA by early Tuesday morning. A broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will persist over much of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, a large high pressure area will dominate the majority of the central/eastern CONUS, with minimal fire weather concerns across these regions. ...Portions of the Southwest... Strong/gusty low-level winds will occur this afternoon across parts of southern/eastern AZ into western/central NM and far west TX. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely as the enhanced mid-level winds become diurnally mixed to the surface. RH values may become lowered around 15-20% for a few hours across parts of southeastern AZ into southern/central NM. Elevated fire weather conditions should occur across this area, and the ongoing elevated delineation has been maintained with some expansion into more of southern/central NM. Low-level temperatures are expected to be cooler compared to the previous several days, which should tend to limit widespread sub-15% RH values and related critical fire weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 10:17
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/12/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the northern Great Basin will develop southward to central CA by early Tuesday morning. A broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will persist over much of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, a large high pressure area will dominate the majority of the central/eastern CONUS, with minimal fire weather concerns across these regions. ...Portions of the Southwest... Strong/gusty low-level winds will occur this afternoon across parts of southern/eastern AZ into western/central NM and far west TX. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely as the enhanced mid-level winds become diurnally mixed to the surface. RH values may become lowered around 15-20% for a few hours across parts of southeastern AZ into southern/central NM. Elevated fire weather conditions should occur across this area, and the ongoing elevated delineation has been maintained with some expansion into more of southern/central NM. Low-level temperatures are expected to be cooler compared to the previous several days, which should tend to limit widespread sub-15% RH values and related critical fire weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 02/12/2018 - 06:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. These
conditions are expected continue through late this week. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Overnight scatterometer data showed near to gale-force northerly
winds over adjacent waters of Tampico, Mexico following a cold
front that extends from southern Alabama to Tampico. These winds
and associated building seas to 10 ft will start to decrease late
this morning. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 05N09W continuing to 01N18W. The ITCZ begins
near 01N18W and extends along 01S27W to the coast of Brazil near
05S36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
90 nm S of the axis between 11W-14W, and within 60 nm S of the
axis between 15W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm S of the axis between 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 09Z, a cold front extends from Pensacola Florida to 27N91W
to 24N94.5w to inland Mexico near Papantla. Strong high pressure
building in behind the front is funneling fresh to near gale-
force northerly winds over the western gulf waters, except for
gale- force winds near Tampico, Mexico as was indicated by
overnight scatterometer data. Moist southerly winds advecting
northward over the gulf from the Caribbean in combination with
a diffluent environment aloft continues to support scattered
moderate isolated strong convection over the northern gulf waters
N of 28N E of the front. This activity may be attended by strong
gusty winds as quickly shifts eastward. Elsewhere, scattered to
isolated showers are within 120 nm ahead of the front. Strong high
pressure over the north Atlc continue to extends SW across the
eastern half of the Gulf, thus providing with light to moderate E
to SE winds ahead of the front. Fresh easterly winds are over
the Straits of Florida. The cold front is forecast to reach from
near the Florida Big Bend area to the western Bay of Campeche this
evening where it will stall and weaken until dissipating
Wednesday evening. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish late
this afternoon or early evening, however fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas to 10 ft will continue to follow the
front through tonight and into early on Tue. Winds and seas will
diminish Tue afternoon as a ridge develops over the southeastern
United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

The GOES-16 low to mid-level water vapor imagery reveals generally
dry and stable conditions continue across the basin. However,
patches of shallow moisture continue to move across western
Hispaniola, thus supporting cloudiness and possible passing
showers. A strong ridge N of the area anchored by a pair of highs
extends southward across the northern half of the Caribbean, with
the associated pressure gradient supporting the continuation of
fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central basin
as indicated by latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range
of 12 to 18 ft near the Colombia coast and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to near gale-force are also occurring through the Atlc
passages and will continue through mid week. Otherwise, little
change is expected through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface over the area is associated with a pair of strong
high pressure centers anchored N of the discussion, one of
1038 mb at 35N48W, and the other of 1036 mb at 39W29W. The ridge
is supporting fresh to strong E-NE winds over most of the basin,
except over NW forecast waters N of 24N where E-SE winds are
mainly moderate. A cold front is forecast to move off the
northeast Florida coast by Tue morning with scattered to isolated
showers. The front then will stall before dissipating Thu morning.
The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW forecast waters
by early Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos/Aguirre
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 23:56

000
AXNT20 KNHC 120556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. These
conditions will continue through at least mid week. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Latest scatterometer data indicate the presence of near to gale-
force northerly winds over adjacent waters of Tampico, Mexico
following a cold front that extends from southern Alabama to
Tampico. These winds and associated building seas to 10 ft will
start to decrease late this morning. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 05N09W continuing to 01N18W. The ITCZ begins
near 01N18W and extends along 01S27W to the coast of Brazil near
05S36W. Scattered showers and tstms are from 0N to 05N between 0W
and 17W and from 08S to 03N between 20W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Alabama near 30N88W SW to 25N93W to
Tampico, Mexico followed by fresh to near gale-force northerly
winds, except for gale-force winds near Tampico, Mexico as shown
by latest scatterometer data. Low level moisture inflow from the
Caribbean along with a diffluent environment aloft continue to
support heavy showers and tstms over the NE Gulf N of 28N. High
moisture behind the front continue to support patchy fog N of 26N
between 91W and 95W. Vessels transiting this region should
exercise caution due to low visibility. Otherwise, scattered to
isolated showers are within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary.
Strong high pressure over the north Atlc continue to extends SW
across the eastern half of the Gulf, thus providing with light to
moderate E to SE winds ahead of the front. Slightly stronger winds
are noted off the Florida Panhandle likely associated with heavy
showers occurring in that region. Fresh easterly winds are also
noted in the Florida Straits. The front will reach from the
western Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche Mon
evening where it will stall and weaken until dissipating Wednesday
evening. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish later this
morning, however fresh to strong northerly winds and building
seas to 10 ft will continue to follow the front today. Winds and
seas will diminish Tue as a ridge develops over the southeast
United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

Dry, stable conditions prevails across the basin as indicated by
GOES-16 low to upper level water vapor imagery. However, patches
of shallow moisture continue to move across western Hispaniola,
thus supporting cloudiness and possible passing showers. A strong
ridge N of the area anchored by a pair of highs extends south
across the northern half of the Caribbean, thus supporting the
continuation of fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and
central basin as indicated by latest scatterometer data. Seas
are 12 to 16 ft near the Colombia coast and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to near gale-force are also occurring through the Atlc
passages and will continue through mid week. Otherwise, little
change is expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored north of the area by a pair of 1039
mb highs extends S across the basin. The ridge is supporting
fresh to strong E-NE winds over most of the basin, except over NW
forecast waters N of 24N where E-SE winds are mainly moderate. A
cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by
Tue morning with scattered to isolated showers. The front then
will stall before dissipating Thu morning. The next cold front is
forecast to enter the NW forecast waters by early Saturday
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 23:45
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over central CA Tuesday morning should develop only slowly southward through the period as an upstream shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will remain over the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, weak lee troughing is forecast to develop over the High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains... There appears to be some potential for strong/gusty southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph to develop across parts of eastern NM into southeastern CO, southwestern KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles Tuesday afternoon. This would mainly be due to enhanced mid-level winds present around 700-500 mb becoming mixed to the surface. However, short-term guidance is not consistent in the strength of these winds, and RH values may become only marginally reduced to around 20-25% through peak heating. Given the uncertainty regarding wind speeds and the limited lowering of RH values, will defer possible introduction of an elevated area to a later update. ...Portions of the Southwest... Locally strong/gusty southerly winds may occur Tuesday afternoon across parts of southeastern AZ into southern NM, with sustained wind speeds up to 15-20 mph. RH values may also become lowered to around 19-25% on an isolated basis across this area. However, the duration of these locally strong/gusty winds appears too limited in combination with the marginal reduction in RH values to warrant an elevated area at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/12/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 23:45
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over central CA Tuesday morning should develop only slowly southward through the period as an upstream shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will remain over the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, weak lee troughing is forecast to develop over the High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains... There appears to be some potential for strong/gusty southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph to develop across parts of eastern NM into southeastern CO, southwestern KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles Tuesday afternoon. This would mainly be due to enhanced mid-level winds present around 700-500 mb becoming mixed to the surface. However, short-term guidance is not consistent in the strength of these winds, and RH values may become only marginally reduced to around 20-25% through peak heating. Given the uncertainty regarding wind speeds and the limited lowering of RH values, will defer possible introduction of an elevated area to a later update. ...Portions of the Southwest... Locally strong/gusty southerly winds may occur Tuesday afternoon across parts of southeastern AZ into southern NM, with sustained wind speeds up to 15-20 mph. RH values may also become lowered to around 19-25% on an isolated basis across this area. However, the duration of these locally strong/gusty winds appears too limited in combination with the marginal reduction in RH values to warrant an elevated area at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/12/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 23:43
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the northern Great Basin will develop southward to central CA by early Tuesday morning. A broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will persist over much of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, a large high pressure area will dominate the majority of the central/eastern CONUS, with minimal fire weather concerns across these regions. ...Portions of the Southwest... Strong/gusty low-level winds will occur this afternoon across parts of southern/eastern AZ into western/central NM and far west TX. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely as the enhanced mid-level winds become diurnally mixed to the surface. RH values may become lowered around 15-20% for a few hours across parts of southeastern AZ into southern/central NM. Elevated fire weather conditions should occur across this area, and the ongoing elevated delineation has been maintained with some expansion into more of southern/central NM. Low-level temperatures are expected to be cooler compared to the previous several days, which should tend to limit widespread sub-15% RH values and related critical fire weather potential. ..Gleason.. 02/12/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 18:06

000
AXNT20 KNHC 120006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. These
conditions will continue through at least mid week. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 04N08W continuing to 01N14W. The ITCZ begins
near 01N14W and extends along 01S24W to the coast of Brazil near
03S39W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm either side of these
boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 29N90W
to 25N97W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the Florida
Panhandle to 29N85W to 28N90W. Upper level diffluence ahead of the
front support numerous heavy showers N of 28N between the Florida
Big Bend and 91W. Scattered showers are ahead also ahead of the
front over the western half of the basin, including the Bay of
Campeche where a surface trough extends from 22N95W to 18N92W. Patchy
fog continue to be reported in the northern Gulf N of 26N, ahead
and behind the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are north
of the front while moderate southerly winds prevail south of it.
The front will reach from southeast Louisiana to near Brownsville,
Texas tonight, and from the western Florida Panhandle to the
western Bay of Campeche by Mon evening where it will stall and
weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to 8 ft
will continue to follow the front tonight and Mon. Winds and seas
will diminish by Tue as a ridge develops over the southeast
United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show deep layer stable,
dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting generally
fair weather conditions. The exception is Hispaniola where a
diffluent wind environment at the mid-levels and patches of
shallow moisture support scattered to isolated showers. Strong
high pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to
strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, as
noted in latest scatterometer data. Seas are reaching 8 to 12 ft,
except near the Colombia coast where seas will be up to 16 ft. The
areal extent of the strong trade winds and associated seas will
spread westward through mid week, including the Windward Passage
and lee of Cuba. Otherwise, little change is expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored north of the area by a 1040 mb
high near 41N35W extends S across the basin. The ridge is
supporting moderate to fresh winds over most of the basin. A cold
front is expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue
afternoon, followed by fresh northerly flow and building seas
north of the Bahamas, then diminish through mid week as the front
stalls and dissipates. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate to
fresh northeast winds dominate this region, except for strong
winds north of the Cape Verde islands. 8-10 ft seas could be
expected in this area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 12:50
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southeast AZ into Southwest NM... An elevated fire weather area has been introduced for southeast AZ into southwest NM for Monday afternoon. Deep layer southwesterly flow will increase ahead of the digging upper trough along the CA coast. At the surface, the pressure gradient will tighten over the southern Rockies as low pressure develops near the Four Corners and strong high pressure persists east of the Rockies. South/southwest surface winds around 15-20 mph with higher gusts are expected as temperatures warm into the 70s. RH values will fall to around 15-25 percent. Some locally critical conditions are possible, but RH values generally will remain above the critical threshold across the region. ..Leitman.. 02/11/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Great Basin Monday morning should develop southward to central CA by early Tuesday morning. A broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will persist over much of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, a large high pressure area will dominate the majority of the central/eastern CONUS, with minimal fire weather concerns across these regions. ...Portions of the Southwest... Strong/gusty low-level winds should occur Monday afternoon across parts of southern/eastern AZ into western/central NM and far west TX. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear probable as the enhanced mid-level winds become diurnally mixed to the surface. However, RH values may be only marginally reduced to around 20-25% due to cooler low-level temperatures compared to the previous several days. While locally elevated conditions may briefly occur across parts of this region Monday afternoon, the prospect for widespread RH values below 20% appears too low to introduce an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 12:50
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Southeast AZ into Southwest NM... An elevated fire weather area has been introduced for southeast AZ into southwest NM for Monday afternoon. Deep layer southwesterly flow will increase ahead of the digging upper trough along the CA coast. At the surface, the pressure gradient will tighten over the southern Rockies as low pressure develops near the Four Corners and strong high pressure persists east of the Rockies. South/southwest surface winds around 15-20 mph with higher gusts are expected as temperatures warm into the 70s. RH values will fall to around 15-25 percent. Some locally critical conditions are possible, but RH values generally will remain above the critical threshold across the region. ..Leitman.. 02/11/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Great Basin Monday morning should develop southward to central CA by early Tuesday morning. A broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will persist over much of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, a large high pressure area will dominate the majority of the central/eastern CONUS, with minimal fire weather concerns across these regions. ...Portions of the Southwest... Strong/gusty low-level winds should occur Monday afternoon across parts of southern/eastern AZ into western/central NM and far west TX. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear probable as the enhanced mid-level winds become diurnally mixed to the surface. However, RH values may be only marginally reduced to around 20-25% due to cooler low-level temperatures compared to the previous several days. While locally elevated conditions may briefly occur across parts of this region Monday afternoon, the prospect for widespread RH values below 20% appears too low to introduce an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 11:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1201 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressures over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds within 90 nm off the coast of
Colombia. These conditions will continue through at least mid
week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 06N10W and
continues to 00N20W. The ITCZ begins near 00N20W and extends to
the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm
on either side of these boundaries between 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 30N93W
to 27N97W. A pre-frontal trough has developed south of the Florida
Panhandle extending from 30N88W to 28N90W. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection prevails along the trough, while minimal
convection is currently related to the front. Patchy fog has been
reported in the vicinity of the front. Fresh northerly winds are
expected north of the front while moderate southerly winds will
prevail south of it. Over the remainder of the basin, a surface
ridge extends from the north Atlantic through the east and
central Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate southerly winds. The
front will reach from southeast Louisiana to near Brownsville,
Texas by tonight, and from the western Florida Panhandle to the
western Bay of Campeche by Mon evening, where it will stall and
weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to 8 ft
will continue following the front tonight and Mon. Winds and seas
will diminish by Tue as a ridge develops over the southeast United
States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show deep layer stable,
dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting generally
fair weather conditions. Strong high pressure north of the area
continues to support fresh to strong trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean, as noted in latest scatterometer
data. Seas are reaching 8 to 12 ft, except near the Colombia coast
where seas will be up to 16 ft. The areal extent of the strong
trade winds and associated seas will spread westward through mid
week, including the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Otherwise,
little change is expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored north of the area by a 1044 mb
high near 42N39W extends across the basin. The ridge is
supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over most of
the basin. A surface trough extends north of Hispaniola from
24N69W to 20N72W with scattered showers mainly over the souther
portion of it. A cold front is expected to move off the northeast
Florida coast by Tue afternoon, followed by fresh northerly flow
and building seas north of the Bahamas, then diminish through mid
week as the front stalls and dissipates. Over the eastern
Atlantic, moderate to fresh northeast winds dominate this region,
except for strong winds north of the Cape Verde islands. 8-10 ft
seas could be expected in this area. These conditions will
diminish during the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 09:30
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/11/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ ...Synopsis... A surface high developing over the Great Basin this morning will quickly weaken by the afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to a southeastward-moving shortwave trough overspreads this region. A separate positively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains should move slowly eastward through the period. A cold front will continue generally southeastward across coastal TX and the Southeast, and cold post-frontal temperatures will greatly limit fire weather concerns across the central/eastern CONUS today. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Critical conditions will be ongoing across parts of southern CA at the start of the period as an enhanced surface pressure gradient remains maximized across this region. Measured LAX-TPH gradient of -9 mb as of 04Z should further strengthen through about 12-14Z. Sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will be common across the elevated/critical delineation, with lowered RH values of 5-20% expected along with dry fine fuels. Gusts to 45-55 mph should also occur across mainly the higher terrain. The surface pressure gradient will relax by this afternoon as the surface high described above weakens, and the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to lessen through the day. This will result in a gradual reduction in elevated/critical conditions through the day, with a much diminished threat by this evening as low-level flow turns to onshore and RH values increase. Across the lower CO River Valley, elevated conditions may occur for a few hours this morning, with strong/gusty post-frontal winds of 15-20 mph combining with RH values of 15-20%. Similar to southern CA, these winds will weaken by this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 09:30
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/11/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ ...Synopsis... A surface high developing over the Great Basin this morning will quickly weaken by the afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to a southeastward-moving shortwave trough overspreads this region. A separate positively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains should move slowly eastward through the period. A cold front will continue generally southeastward across coastal TX and the Southeast, and cold post-frontal temperatures will greatly limit fire weather concerns across the central/eastern CONUS today. ...Portions of Southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley... Critical conditions will be ongoing across parts of southern CA at the start of the period as an enhanced surface pressure gradient remains maximized across this region. Measured LAX-TPH gradient of -9 mb as of 04Z should further strengthen through about 12-14Z. Sustained northeasterly winds of 15-35 mph will be common across the elevated/critical delineation, with lowered RH values of 5-20% expected along with dry fine fuels. Gusts to 45-55 mph should also occur across mainly the higher terrain. The surface pressure gradient will relax by this afternoon as the surface high described above weakens, and the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to lessen through the day. This will result in a gradual reduction in elevated/critical conditions through the day, with a much diminished threat by this evening as low-level flow turns to onshore and RH values increase. Across the lower CO River Valley, elevated conditions may occur for a few hours this morning, with strong/gusty post-frontal winds of 15-20 mph combining with RH values of 15-20%. Similar to southern CA, these winds will weaken by this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 06:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressures over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia
through the next week, mainly at night. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 05N10W and continues to 01S22W. The ITCZ begins near
01S22W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered
showers are within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic through the
central Gulf supports moderate southerly winds, except for
moderate to fresh winds in the north-central Gulf N of 26N and
north of the Yucatan Peninsula to 23N. Upper level diffluent flow
and moisture inflow from the Caribbean support scattered moderate
convection within 50 nm off the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle. The moist southerly flow continue to
support dense fog over the northwest Gulf N of 26N with 3 NM
visibilities over offshore areas. A cold front is along the Texas
coastline and will move off the coast later this morning. The
front will reach from southeast Louisiana to near Brownsville,
Texas by this evening, and from the western Florida Panhandle to
the western Bay of Campeche by Mon evening, where it will stall
and weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to 8
ft will follow the front Sun night and Mon. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish into Tue as a ridge develops over the
southeast United States. This pattern will support fresh east
winds by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions expected near the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show deep layer stable,
dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting generally
fair weather conditions. Strong high pressure north of the area
continues to support fresh to strong trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean, as noted in recent scatterometer
satellite data. Seas are reaching 8 to 12 ft, except near the
Colombia coast where seas will be up to 16 ft. The areal extent
of the strong trade winds and associated seas will spread westward
through mid week, including the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba.
Otherwise, little change is expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored N of the area by a 1044 mb high
near 43N47W and a 1038 mb high southwest of the Azores near
36N40W extends across the basin. The ridge is supporting moderate
to fresh east to southeast flow over most of the SW N Atlantic,
except for strong trade winds south of 23N with 8 to 10 ft seas.
Farther east over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends
along 45W from 18N to 27N. Scattered showers associated with it
are from 17N to 25N between 38W and 48W. The surface trough
weakens the gradient enough to support mainly moderate to fresh
trade wind flow across the central tropical Atlantic, but seas
remain 8 to 12 ft in easterly swell. A cold front will move off
the northeast Florida coast by Tue afternoon, followed by fresh
northerly flow and building seas north of the Bahamas, then
diminish through mid week as the front stalls and dissipates. Over
the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh northeast winds dominate
this region of the Atlc, except for strong winds north of the Cape
Verde islands. The long duration and fetch of these strong winds
support fully developed seas of 8 to 11 ft. Jet dynamics aloft is
supporting a broad area of multi-level clouds with possible
embedded showers between 20W and 43W, including the Cabo Verde
Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/NR

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 02/11/2018 - 00:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia
through the next week, mainly at night. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 05N10W and continues to 01S22W. The ITCZ begins near
01S22W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are within 270 nm either side of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic through the
central Gulf supports moderate southerly winds, except for
moderate to fresh winds in the north-central Gulf N of 26N and
north of the Yucatan Peninsula to 23N. Upper level diffluent flow
and moisture inflow from the Caribbean support scattered heavy
showers and isolated tstms within 75 nm off the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The moist
southerly flow continue to support dense fog over the northwest
Gulf N of 26N with 3 NM visibilities over offshore areas. No fog
is currently observed elsewhere, but may develop over the eastern
Gulf early Sun. A cold front will move off the coast of Texas
later this morning. The front will reach a position from
southeast Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas by Sun evening, and
from the western Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche
by Mon evening, where it will stall and weaken. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas to 8 ft will follow the front
Sun night and Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish
into Tue as a ridge develops over the southeast United States.
This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions expected near the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show deep layer stable,
dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting generally
fair weather conditions. Strong high pressure north of the area
continues to support fresh to strong trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean, as noted in recent scatterometer
satellite data. Seas are reaching 8 to 12 ft, except near the
Colombia coast where seas will be up to 16 ft. The areal extent
of the strong trade winds and associated seas will spread westward
through mid week, including the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba.
Otherwise, little change is expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored N of the area by a 1044 mb high
near 43N47W and a 1039 mb high southwest of the Azores near 36N40W extends
across the basin. The ridge is supporting moderate to fresh east
to southeast flow over most of the SW N Atlantic, except for strong
trade winds south of 23N with 8 to 10 ft seas. Farther east over
the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends along 45W from 18N
to 27N. Scattered showers associated with it are from 17N to 25N
between 38W and 48W. The surface trough weakens the gradient
enough to support mainly moderate to fresh trade wind flow across
the central tropical Atlantic, but seas remain 8 to 12 ft in
easterly swell. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida
coast by Tue afternoon, followed by fresh northerly flow and
building seas north of the Bahamas, then diminish through mid week
as the front stalls and dissipates. Over the eastern Atlantic,
moderate to fresh northeast winds dominate this region of the
Atlc, except for strong winds north of the Cape Verde islands. The
long duration and fetch of these strong winds support fully
developed seas of 8 to 11 ft. Jet dynamics aloft is supporting a
broad area of multi-level clouds with possible embedded showers
between 20W and 43W, including the Cabo Verde Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 02/10/2018 - 23:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Great Basin Monday morning should develop southward to central CA by early Tuesday morning. A broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will persist over much of the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, a large high pressure area will dominate the majority of the central/eastern CONUS, with minimal fire weather concerns across these regions. ...Portions of the Southwest... Strong/gusty low-level winds should occur Monday afternoon across parts of southern/eastern AZ into western/central NM and far west TX. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear probable as the enhanced mid-level winds become diurnally mixed to the surface. However, RH values may be only marginally reduced to around 20-25% due to cooler low-level temperatures compared to the previous several days. While locally elevated conditions may briefly occur across parts of this region Monday afternoon, the prospect for widespread RH values below 20% appears too low to introduce an elevated area at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/11/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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