Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 09:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/12/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley will shift east toward the Atlantic coast today. Further west, a broad upper level ridge will encompass much of the western states into the Plains. At the surface, a cold front will track south and east across the southern Plains and southeastern U.S. with strong high pressure building behind this feature across much of the central U.S. Fire weather conditions are not expected across the country today due to a lack of stronger boundary layer winds overlapping with any lower RH values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 09:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/12/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley will shift east toward the Atlantic coast today. Further west, a broad upper level ridge will encompass much of the western states into the Plains. At the surface, a cold front will track south and east across the southern Plains and southeastern U.S. with strong high pressure building behind this feature across much of the central U.S. Fire weather conditions are not expected across the country today due to a lack of stronger boundary layer winds overlapping with any lower RH values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 04:53

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
552 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to
12N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
12N20W to 10N35W to 08N45W to 08N49W. Scattered moderate
convection and tstms are from 03N-14N between 21W-46W. A surface
trough is west of the ITCZ extending from 11N48W to 06N51W
supporting isolated showers from 04N-13N between 46W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure anchored over Maine extends SSW across the
SE CONUS and then across the Gulf waters. A weakness in the ridge
is analyzed as a surface trough from the coast of Mississippi
near 30N88W to 25N91W, which is generating isolated showers
within 75 nm either side of its axis. A tight pressure gradient
between the strong ridge and lower pressure over the SW N Atlc and
the W Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong ENE winds E of
the surface trough, the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straits.
Moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, water vapor
imagery indicate broad upper troughing over the basin along with
relatively dry air aloft, which is maintaining generally fair
weather conditions. The surface trough will continue to move
across the NW Gulf through this afternoon and then dissipates.
Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail across the eastern half
of the basin through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad low pressure prevails across the western Caribbean. A
surface trough extends from 18N83W to Costa Rica coastal waters
near 10N83W. Water vapor imagery indicate the trough is supported
aloft by a mid-level low stretching from the Windward Passage to
the SW Caribbean. In addition, a favorable diffluent environment
remains over the western and central Caribbean, which is
supporting scattered showers and tstms within 75 nm E of the
trough axis and from 15N-21N W of 80W. A middle-level low NE of
the Mona Passage supports scattered showers and tstms that extends
to the Passage and across portions of Puerto Rico. A strong
pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the
broad area of low pressure in the western half of the Caribbean
supports fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean N of 18N W of
80W. The synoptic pattern aloft will continue in place through
Monday as the upper level troughing over the Gulf of Mexico and SW
North Atlc will be slow to weaken into early next week.
Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh trades E of 75W will
persist.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms continue across the island
this morning as a favorable middle to upper level diffluent
environment prevails. Upper level troughing is expected to persist
to the NW over the SE Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc through
tonight with persistent convection expected across the island,
adjacent coastal waters and much of the north-central Caribbean
Sea. Potential hazards of localized flooding and life-threatening
mud slides are possible, especially if stronger convection
develops during peak daytime heating and instability today and
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the SW North Atlc from 30N64W
SW to 27N73W then to the Florida coast near 27N80W. A middle-
level low NE of the Mona Passage supports scattered showers and
tstms S of 22N between 63W-73W. To the east, a surface trough
extends from 30N56W to 25N57W with widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms within 210 nm E of its axis. The surface trough
remains within the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1034 mb high centered NE of the Azores. Finally, a 1016 mb
low near 30N35W and associated surface trough interacting with an
upper-level low continues to produce an elongated area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms N of the area.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a non-
tropical low to form during the next day or so. The system could
gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics by the middle
of next week while it moves slowly northeastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 00:53
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move onshore the Pacific Northwest on Monday. As this occurs, the ridge over the Plains will flatten, giving way to mainly zonal flow across much of the country. Stronger deep layer westerlies over the Rockies will induce lee troughing and some dry downslope winds are possible over the central and southern High Plains. However, strongest surface winds will be offset from lower RH conditions. While some brief/spotty elevated fire weather conditions may occur over parts of eastern NM and eastern CO, the overall threat is expected to remain too marginal to highlight any areas. ..Leitman.. 11/12/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 00:52
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley will shift east toward the Atlantic coast today. Further west, a broad upper level ridge will encompass much of the western states into the Plains. At the surface, a cold front will track south and east across the southern Plains and southeastern U.S. with strong high pressure building behind this feature across much of the central U.S. Fire weather conditions are not expected across the country today due to a lack of stronger boundary layer winds overlapping with any lower RH values. ..Leitman.. 11/12/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 00:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
10N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N17W to 07N33W to 05N43W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-14N between 20W-40W. A surface trough is
west of the ITCZ extending from 13N47W to 06N51W supporting
scattered moderate convection E of its axis from 08N-13N between
40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure anchored over Vermont extends SSW across the
SE CONUS and then across the Gulf waters. A weakness in the ridge
is analyzed as a surface trough from SE Louisiana coastal waters
near 29N89W to 24N89W, which is generating isolated showers
within 75 nm either side of its axis. A tight pressure gradient
between the strong ridge and lower pressure over the SW N Atlc and
the W Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong ENE winds E of
the surface trough, the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straits.
Moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, water vapor
imagery indicate broad upper troughing over the basin along with
relatively dry air aloft, which is maintaining generally fair
weather conditions. The surface trough will continue to move W
towards the NW Gulf through Sunday afternoon and then dissipates.
Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail across the eastern half
of the basin through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad low pressure prevails across the Caribbean focused on a
1006 mb low centered off the coast of Nicaragua near 12N82W. A
surface trough extends from 16N85W to the low center to 11N82W. Water
vapor imagery indicate the surface low and troughing is supported
aloft by a mid-level low stretching from the Windward Passage to
the SW Caribbean. In addition, a favorable diffluent environment
remains over the western and central Caribbean, which is
supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 13N W of 75W and
across Hispaniola. A middle-level low N of the Mona Passage
supports a cluster of showers and tstms that extends to the
Passage and across northern Puerto Rico. A strong pressure
gradient between high pressure N of the area and the broad area of
low pressure in the western half of the Caribbean supports fresh
to strong winds in the NW Caribbean N of 18N W of 80W. The
synoptic pattern aloft will continue in place through Monday as
the upper level troughing over the Gulf of Mexico and SW North
Atlc will be slow to weaken into early next week. Otherwise,
moderate to occasional fresh trades E of 75W will persist.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms continue across the island
tonight as a favorable middle to upper level diffluent environment
prevails. Upper level troughing is expected to persist to the NW
over the SE Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc through Sunday night
with persistent convection expected across the island, adjacent
coastal waters and much of the north-central Caribbean Sea.
Potential hazards of localized flooding and life-threatening mud
slides are possible, especially if stronger convection develops
during peak daytime heating and instability Sunday and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the SW North Atlc from 30N65W SW
to 27N74W then to the Florida coast near 26N80W. A middle-level
low N of the Mona Passage supports a cluster of showers and tstms
S of 21N between 63W-70W. To the east, a surface trough extends
from 29N57W to 22N57W with widely scattered showers and isolated
tstms within 120 nm either side of its axis. The surface trough
remains within the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1035 mb high centered NE of the Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 17:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 112304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N20W to 08N40W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-12N between 23W-32W. Isolated moderate convection is within
120 nm either side of a line from 08N51W to 15N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough axis extends
from over the SW North Atlc and central Florida peninsula into the
central Gulf near 26N90W then southward to a base over southern
Mexico near 17N93W. The troughing over the Gulf remains relatively
tranquil...however supports a cold front across the SW North Atlc
waters to the Florida peninsula near 27N80W then northwestward to
the Florida panhandle near 30N84W. This backdoor cold front will
bring stronger...fresh to strong...E-NE winds to the eastern Gulf
overnight into Sunday. By Sunday night...the front is expected to
weaken somewhat with moderate to fresh NE winds prevailing Monday
and Tuesday. Otherwise...a surface trough with widely scattered
showers is analyzed along the Mexico coast from 19N95W to 25N97W.
The shallow shower activity remains generally W of 95W this
evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Generally broad lower pressure is noted across much of the
Caribbean this evening focused on a 1007 mb low centered off the
coast of Nicaragua near 13N82W in the western waters. A surface
trough extends N-NE from the low to 18N81W. Water vapor imagery
indicates the surface low and troughing is supported aloft by mid-
level energy stretching from the Windward Passage region SW to the
waters SW of Jamaica near 16N80W. In addition...a favorable
divergent environment remains over the western and central
Caribbean...including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. As a
result...scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are
occurring primarily N of 14N between 66W-88W...however a few
isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 13N between 79W-
84W. This synoptic pattern will be slow to modify through Monday
as the upper level troughing over the Gulf of Mexico and SW North
Atlc will be slow to weaken into early next week. Otherwise...
moderate to occasional fresh trades E of 75W will persist.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms continue across the island
this evening as the region remains in a favorable middle to upper
level divergent environment within generally west-southwesterly
flow aloft. Upper level troughing is expected to persist to the NW
over the SE Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc through Sunday night
with persistent convection expected across the island...adjacent
coastal waters...and much of the north-central Caribbean Sea.
Potential hazards of localized flooding and life-threatening mud
slides are possible...especially if stronger convection develops
during peak daytime heating and instability Sunday and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc from 32N64W near
Bermuda SW to 28N72W then to the Florida coast near 27N80W. A
pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed to the E of the front from
28N67W to 31N64W. While only a few isolated showers are possible
in association with the cold front...low-level moisture
convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough and a favorable
divergent environment aloft are generating scattered showers and
isolated tstms from 19N-28N between 59W-75W...and from 28N-33N
between 56W-67W. To the east...another surface trough extends
from 20N34W to 28N30W supported aloft by a broad middle to upper
level low centered near 30N35W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms are noted from 24N-33N between 26W-37W. The surface
trough remains within the southern periphery of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1034 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 42N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 11:56

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa to 11N15W then extends SW
to E Atlc waters to 10N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 10N19W to 08N30W to 07N50W to the coast of South
America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N
between 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a cold front has pushed south of Melbourne
Florida. Radar imagery shows scattered showers extending 60 nm
inland. A surface trough is over the E Gulf of Mexico from 30N86W
to 24N87W. Broken low clouds are over the NE Gulf. Further S,
scattered moderate convection is over the Yucatan Channel.
Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the W Gulf from 25N87W to
19N96W, producing scattered showers along the coast of NE Mexico.
In the upper levels, a trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico
with strong subsidence. Expect the E Gulf surface trough to move
to the central Gulf over the next 24 hours with possible showers.
Also expect the the W Gulf trough and showers to persist along the
coast of NE Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near Providencia
Island at 13N81W. A surface trough extends from 17N81W to the low
center to 10N81W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of
the trough. Scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of
Honduras from 16N-18N between 85W-88W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is also near Jamaica from 16N-19N
between 73W-78W. Scattered showers are over Costa Rica and Panama
due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.
In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the W
Caribbean enhancing convection. Expect additional convection over
the central and western Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are across the Island
being supported by a broad area of low pressure across the western
half of the Caribbean and middle level diffluent flow. The shower
activity is forecast to continue through Monday, increasing during
the afternoon hours due in part to daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W to 28N74W to
Melbourne Florida. Scattered showers are within to nm N of the
front. A prefrontal trough is extends from 31N65W to 26N69W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm E of the trough.
Scattered moderate convection is also N of Puerto Rico from 20N-
24N between 64W-69W. A surface trough is over the tropical
Atlantic from 25N53W to 18N50W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 17N-21N between 46W-50W. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the surface
trough. A large upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic
near 31N35W with a trough axis extending SW to 17N50W. Upper level
diffluence is E of this trough axis to the coast of W Africa.
Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend from 31N65W to S
Florida with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 11:16
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected. See the previous forecast below for more details. ..Cook.. 11/11/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017/ ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley region will track east to the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Meanwhile, a broad upper ridge will build over much of the western states into the Plains. Surface high pressure will strengthen over the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains as a cold front pushes east/southeast across Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Generally light surface winds and unfavorable RH/fuel conditions will preclude fire weather concerns on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 11:16
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected. See the previous forecast below for more details. ..Cook.. 11/11/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017/ ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley region will track east to the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Meanwhile, a broad upper ridge will build over much of the western states into the Plains. Surface high pressure will strengthen over the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains as a cold front pushes east/southeast across Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Generally light surface winds and unfavorable RH/fuel conditions will preclude fire weather concerns on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 09:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0934 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track. Despite a few areas of morning cirrus, insolation will foster warming surface temperatures in east-central New Mexico along with breezy conditions. These conditions may locally exceed elevated thresholds for brief periods of time during the afternoon, although this fire weather threat should remain too spotty to necessitate highlights. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/11/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper shortwave trough will migrate eastward across the Rockies toward the mid-MS Valley in otherwise quasi-zonal flow today. This will result in enhanced deep-layer westerlies over the southern and central Rockies. Meanwhile, at the surface, weak lee troughing across the central and southern High Plains will aid in development of breezy downslope winds. Some areas may see brief elevated fire weather conditions as RH values fall into the 17-25 percent range. The overall threat will be limited given marginality of RH and fuel conditions despite breezy west/southwest winds and warmer than normal high temperatures. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 09:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0934 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track. Despite a few areas of morning cirrus, insolation will foster warming surface temperatures in east-central New Mexico along with breezy conditions. These conditions may locally exceed elevated thresholds for brief periods of time during the afternoon, although this fire weather threat should remain too spotty to necessitate highlights. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/11/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper shortwave trough will migrate eastward across the Rockies toward the mid-MS Valley in otherwise quasi-zonal flow today. This will result in enhanced deep-layer westerlies over the southern and central Rockies. Meanwhile, at the surface, weak lee troughing across the central and southern High Plains will aid in development of breezy downslope winds. Some areas may see brief elevated fire weather conditions as RH values fall into the 17-25 percent range. The overall threat will be limited given marginality of RH and fuel conditions despite breezy west/southwest winds and warmer than normal high temperatures. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 03:56

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110956
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
455 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa to 11N15W then extends SW
to E Atlc waters near 09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 09N19W to 08N40W to 07N58W. Isolated moderate
convection and tstms are from 04N-10N E of 34W and from 09N-15N
between 30W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure has established across the E CONUS anchored
by a 1040 mb high near the Great Lakes. The ridge extends S
covering most of the Gulf waters, except W of 95W where the
remnants of a stationary front are analyzed as a surface trough extends
from 27N97W to 23N96W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W.
Isolated showers are occurring within 105 nm either side of the
boundary. The pressure gradient between the strong ridge and lower
pressure over the SW N Atlc and the W Caribbean supports fresh to
locally strong NE winds E of 89W, including the Yucatan Channel
and the Florida Straits. Moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere.
Otherwise, water vapor imagery indicate broad upper troughing over
the basin along with relatively dry air aloft, which is
maintaining generally fair weather conditions. No significant
changes expected basin-wide through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level low extending from N of Hispaniola to the SW
Caribbean continue to support a surface trough that extends from E
Cuba to W Jamaica coastal waters to a 1007 mb low near 14N80W to
11N80W. Diffluence between the middle level low and a ridge in
the E Caribbean supports scattered heavy showers and tstms from
the low center to 20N between 74W-81W, from 11N-16N between 70W-
74W and in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are across the
Yucatan Channel, the Windward Passage, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Generally,
fair weather is elsewhere. A strong pressure gradient between
high pressure N of the area and the broad area of low pressure in
the western half of the Caribbean supports fresh to locally
strong winds in the Lee of Cuba and within 120 nm off the S coast
of Jamaica. These winds will expand SW across much of the NW
Caribbean through Sunday. This synoptic pattern will be slow to
modify through Monday as the upper level troughing over the Gulf
of Mexico and SW North Atlc will be slow to weaken into early next
week. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh trades E of 75W
will persist.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are across the Island
being supported by a broad area of low pressure across the western
half of the Caribbean and middle level diffluent flow. The shower
activity is forecast to continue through Monday, increasing during
the afternoon hours due in part to daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level trough over the W Atlc continue to support a cold
front N of the area as well as a pre-frontal surface trough analyzed
from 30N72W to 29N76W to 29N79W. A second trough is across the
southern Bahamas near 21N73W to 28N69W. Scattered showers and
tstms are S of 27N between 65W-77W. Similar convection is N of 28N
between 63W-68W associated with a surface trough N of the area. In
the central Atlc, an upper level low support scattered showers and
tstms from 18N-23N between 43W-51W. Elsewhere, the eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb
high centered NE of the Azores Islands. The cold front will enter
SW N Atlc waters today and then will stall while weakening through
Sunday. Another cold front will enter this region Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 01:05
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley region will track east to the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Meanwhile, a broad upper ridge will build over much of the western states into the Plains. Surface high pressure will strengthen over the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains as a cold front pushes east/southeast across Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Generally light surface winds and unfavorable RH/fuel conditions will preclude fire weather concerns on Sunday. ..Leitman.. 11/11/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 01:04
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper shortwave trough will migrate eastward across the Rockies toward the mid-MS Valley in otherwise quasi-zonal flow today. This will result in enhanced deep-layer westerlies over the southern and central Rockies. Meanwhile, at the surface, weak lee troughing across the central and southern High Plains will aid in development of breezy downslope winds. Some areas may see brief elevated fire weather conditions as RH values fall into the 17-25 percent range. The overall threat will be limited given marginality of RH and fuel conditions despite breezy west/southwest winds and warmer than normal high temperatures. ..Leitman.. 11/11/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sat, 11/11/2017 - 00:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N18W to
08N40W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated
tstms are from 05N-08N between 10W-15W and from 10N-15N between
29W-40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-08N between
22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure has established across the E CONUS anchored
by a 1040 mb high near the Great Lakes. The ridge extends S
covering most of the Gulf waters, except W of 94W where the
remnants of a stationary front extends from a 1018 mb low near
25N97W to 21N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. Isolated
showers are occurring within 105 nm either side of the boundary.
The pressure gradient between the strong ridge and lower pressure
over the SW N Atlc and the W Caribbean supports fresh to locally
strong NE winds E of 87W, including the Yucatan Channel and the
Florida Straits. Moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere. Otherwise, water
vapor imagery indicate broad upper troughing over the basin along
with relatively dry air aloft, which is maintaining generally
fair weather conditions. The weakening stationary front will
dissipate Saturday, leaving a surface trough over E Mexico adjacent
waters. Not significant changes expected elsewhere through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level low extending from N of Hispaniola to the SW
Caribbean continue to support a surface trough that extends from E
Cuba to W Jamaica coastal waters to 14N79W. Diffluence between the
middle level low and a ridge in the E Caribbean supports scattered
heavy showers and tstms in the Windward Passage, across Jamaica
and from 12N-17N between 70W-79W. Isolated showers and tstms
extend to the Gulf of Honduras and across the Yucatan Channel.
Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are across Hispaniola.
Generally, fair weather is elsewhere. A strong pressure gradient
between high pressure N of the area and the broad area of low
pressure in the western half of the basin support fresh to locally
strong winds in the Lee of Cuba and within 90 nm of the S coast of
Jamaica. These winds will expand SW across much of the NW
Caribbean through Sunday. This synoptic pattern will be slow to
modify through Monday as the upper level troughing over the Gulf
of Mexico and SW North Atlc will be slow to weaken into early next
week. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh trades E of 75W
will persist.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are across the Island
being supported by a broad area of low pressure across the western
half of the Caribbean and middle level diffluent flow. The shower
activity is forecast to continue through Monday, increasing during
the afternoon hours due in part to daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level trough with axis along the E CONUS seaboard
continue to support a cold front N of the area with tail reaching
the SW N Atlc waters along 30N73W to 29N77W. Ahead of that
boundary a cold front continues to weaken from 30N69W to 27N77W
where it stalls over S Florida where it is supporting isolated
showers. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from the SE
Bahamas near 21N73W to 30N67W. Scattered to isolated showers are
within 210 nm E of the trough axis. Elsewhere, the eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1040 mb
high centered NE of the Azores Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 11/10/2017 - 17:14

000
AXNT20 KNHC 102314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
11N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N19W to 09N25W to 10N37W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 01N-09N between 06W-12W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 21W-27W...and
from 10N-14N between 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates broad troughing over the basin this
evening within relatively dry air aloft. The trough axis extends
from over the Florida peninsula SW to a base over southern Mexico
near the Chivela Pass. While the stronger middle to upper level
dynamics remain in the SW North Atlc...a lingering stationary
front meanders from the central Florida peninsula near 27N81W to
25N90W and into a weak 1016 mb low. The front continues S-SE from
the low to the southern Mexico coast near 19N95W. As a stable
environment is noted aloft...low-level moisture and possible
isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the front and
generally W of 95W...including interior portions of eastern
Mexico. Overall moderate to fresh NE winds prevail with the
exception of N-NW winds W of the low pressure center and front
extending southward. The front is forecast to gradually weaken and
become diffuse through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Generally broad lower pressure is noted across much of the
Caribbean this evening focused on a 1007 mb low centered near
15N79W in the western waters. A surface trough extends N-NE from
the low to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Water vapor imagery
indicates the surface low and troughing is supported aloft by
mid-level energy stretching from east of Jamaica near 18N76W to
the offshore waters of Nicaragua near 14N82W. In addition...a
favorable divergent environment remains over the central
Caribbean...including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. As a
result...scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
primarily between 68W-79W...however a few isolated showers and
tstms are occurring across the NW Caribbean and across Panama and
Costa Rica generally S of 10N. This synoptic pattern will be slow
to modify through Monday as the upper level troughing over the
Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc will be slow to weaken into early
next week. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh trades E of
75W will persist.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms continue across the island
this evening as the region remains in a favorable middle to upper
level divergent environment within generally southwesterly flow
aloft. Upper level troughing is expected to persist to the NW over
the SE Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc through the weekend with
persistent convection expected across the island...adjacent
coastal waters...and much of the central Caribbean Sea. Potential
hazards of localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides
are possible...especially if stronger convection develops during
peak daytime heating and instability through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc from 32N71W SW to
the Florida coast near 28N80W where it becomes stationary into the
Gulf of Mexico. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed to the SE
of the front from the SE Bahamas near 23N73W to 28N70W. While only
a few isolated showers are possible in association with the cold
front...low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the
surface trough and a favorable divergent environment aloft are
generating scattered showers and isolated tstms from 19N-28N
between 64W-76W. Additional convection is occurring from 28N-34N
between 59W-66W. To the east...another surface trough extends
from 19N50W to 29N49W supported aloft by an upper level low
centered near 23N48W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
noted primarily E of the surface trough axis from 19N-27N between
42W-49W. Elsewhere...the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1039 mb high centered NE of the Azores
near 44N19W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 11/10/2017 - 12:27
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in east-central New Mexico, although these conditions should be too spotty for any highlights. For more information, see the previous discussion below. ..Cook.. 11/10/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will continue across much of the CONUS Saturday. An upper shortwave trough will track east from the central and northern Rockies to the Mid/Upper MS Valley region. In response to this upper shortwave trough, deep layer westerlies will strengthen over the central and southern Rockies, and some breezy downslope winds are expected over NM into the southern High Plains. This will lead to lowering RH conditions during the afternoon with a deeply mixed boundary layer. However, surface wind speeds are forecast to remain less than 15 mph with some occasionally higher gusts. Additionally, RH values will remain marginal, precluding the need for any fire weather outlook areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 11/10/2017 - 11:18

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
11N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 11N19W
to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 200 nm
on either side of the boundaries mainly east of 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the basin, analyzed as a
stationary front across central Florida to 27N83W to 25N89W to a
1014 mb low near 24N96W to 18N95W. Isolated showers are noted
along the front and near the low. A surface trough extends north
from the low to 28N97W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds
prevail south of the frontal boundary and low, while fresh to
strong northeast winds are noted north and west of the features.
Expect for the front to gradually weaken through the next 24
hours. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected on Saturday
across much of the basin. High pressure will build across the
southeast CONUS over the weekend and introduce a reinforcing shot
of cold air into the Gulf, causing northeast winds to increase
across the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula until early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure covers much of the basin, anchored
by a 1008 mb low centered south of Jamaica near 15N78W. A surface
trough curves northeast from the low to east Cuba near 20N75W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted between
70W-78W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. To the west, another
surface trough extends over the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 20N
between 84W- 88W. Satellite- derived wind data show gentle to
moderate northeast winds west of the surface trough in the central
Caribbean while fresh to occasionally strong southeast winds
prevail east of the trough. This broad area of lower pressure is
expected to persist and slowly move west through the upcoming
weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Surface troughing extends west of the island to a low pressure
south of Jamaica near 15N78W. A diffluent flow aloft in this area
supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting
mainly the western portion of the island. This activity will
likely persist during the next 48 hours and maintain the threat of
localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides, especially if
stronger convection develops during peak daytime heating and
instability.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N73W to
28N80W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N68W to
24N71W with scattered showers affecting mainly the southern
Bahamas. This activity is supported by a diffluent flow aloft.
Another surface trough extends from 29N48W to 19N48W with
scattered showers prevailing along and within 100 nm east of the
trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 11/10/2017 - 10:03
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/10/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are not expected to be a concern across the country today. Strong surface high pressure will dominate much of the eastern U.S. where seasonally cool and dry conditions can be expected. A low-amplitude upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest will migrate east/southeast toward the Rockies and weak lee surface troughing will develop across the High Plains. This will result in some breezy conditions across the southern High Plains, but cool temperatures and unfavorable RH conditions will negate fire weather concerns here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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