Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 09/20/2017 - 13:46
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... No changes have been made to the ongoing critical area across eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and far southwest Nebraska. Sustained winds around 20-30 mph will combine with RH values around 10-15% to increase concerns across parts of the central High Plains. Fine fuels will be sufficiently dry, such that these meteorological conditions will support a critical threat Thursday. Elsewhere, the elevated area has been expanded, mainly to account for breezy/windy conditions across much of the region, in response to strong southwesterly mid-level flow along the periphery of an amplified trough across the West. Fuels in some locations are only marginally receptive to rapid fire spread; however, the strength of flow, combined with curing of fine fuels and RH values near 20%, will likely support elevated concerns. ..Picca.. 09/20/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the West on Thursday, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/mixing of a dry airmass will result in an increasing fire weather threat on Thursday, and a critical area has been introduced across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. The northern extent of the critical area is constrained by weaker wind speeds in closer proximity to the surface low, while the southern and eastern extent are constrained by uncertainty regarding the critical RH potential, and also by increasingly marginal fuel conditions. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO... Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, and northwest NM on Thursday, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. At this time, the best chance for critical wind/RH appears to be displaced to the west of the drier fuels, so no upgrade has been made for this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 09/20/2017 - 13:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/1800 UTC, major Hurricane Maria is located near 18.4N 66.9W
or about 13 nm W of Arecibo, Puerto Rico. The present movement of
Maria is northwest at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts
to 120 kt, Category 3. Numerous strong convection is within 120
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. Maria is moving across
Puerto Rico today, and will pass just north of the northeast coast
of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 121 nm SSE
of Nantucket Massachusetts near 39.2N 69.3W, moving northeast at 7
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate
convection lays on the NW quadrant of the storm from 38N-42N
between 70W-73W. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 178 nm from the center. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING...

A 1007 mb low in the central Atlc, the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Lee, is located near 18N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the NE quadrant from 17N-25N between 42W-45W
Gale-force winds ore over the NE quadrant of the low...within 270
nm of the center. An increase in the organization of the deep
convection would result in the regeneration of Lee as it moves
northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. There is a medium
chance for tropical cyclone re-development within the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
21N34W to 06N33W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of
moderate low to middle level moisture N of 13N, and abundant
moisture S of 13N, as shown by SSMI TPW imagery. A well defined
surface reflection is also noted. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-13N between 28W-40W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
20N85W to 07N88W, moving west at 20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery
indicates the presence of some dry air intrusion in the wave
environment. That along with strong subsidence aloft, and strong
vertical wind shear, produces a lack of convection over the NW
Caribbean.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
12N28W to 08N40W to 10N45W to 09N49W. The ITCZ extends from
09N49W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N
between 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N87W.
10-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf. Lightning
detection imagery indicates thunderstorms over the NW Gulf, SE
Texas, and SW Louisiana. The northern extent of a tropical wave is
over the the Bay of Campeche, S of 20N95W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of this wave. the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has
mostly fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered over the W Gulf near 22N95W. Expect little change over
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eye of category 4 Hurricane Maria has recently moved off the
NW coast of Puerto Rico. Maria is forecast to pass just north of
the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and
Thursday. See the special features section for further details.
The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa
Rica and Panama. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Scatterometer data shows mainly
light to gentle trade winds west of 75W. Of note in the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with
axis from central Cuba near 22N89W to central Honduras near
14N87W. Some scattered showers are Just E of the trough axis due
to upper level diffluence.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning is in effect for the NE Dominican Republic. A
tropical storm warning is in effect for the N coast of Haiti. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E
Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the entire
island to be under feeder bands over the the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. There is a gale warning
associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Lee along
with scattered moderate convection. See above. A surface trough
over the central Atlantic extends from 31N44W to 25N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 120 nm east of the trough
north of 25N. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a broad surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 09/20/2017 - 10:54
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Desert Southwest... The ongoing elevated area has been expanded westward to far southern Nevada. Sustained south/southwesterly winds around 15-25 mph will combine with RH values near 15-20% and dry fine fuels to modestly increase fire-weather concerns this afternoon, warranting the westward expansion. ...Northern High Plains... Only minor changes to the ongoing elevated area are needed. See below for more details. ..Picca.. 09/20/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper trough over the West is expected to amplify today, as an embedded shortwave trough drops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into portions of CA/NV. Relatively dry and windy conditions will persist over portions of the Southwest and also across parts of the central High Plains, resulting in an elevated fire weather threat. ...Northeast AZ/Northwest NM into the Four Corners Region... Sufficient residual low-midlevel flow and dry conditions will result in the development of elevated to locally critical wind/RH conditions over portions of AZ/NM into southern UT/southwest CO. Fuels are rather marginal across this region, though some curing of finer fuels will have occurred on Tuesday. The elevated area has been maintained over portions of northeast AZ/northwest NM into the Four Corners region, where the most substantial wind/RH conditions appear likely to develop. At this time, the best chance for critical wind/RH appears to be over northeast AZ/southeast UT, where fuels are quite marginal, displaced to the west of the drier fuels over northwest NM. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Relatively dry and breezy conditions are expected over portions of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. At this time, confidence in a sufficient duration of critical wind/RH at any one location is too low for an upgrade. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 09/20/2017 - 07:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/1200 UTC, major Hurricane Maria is located near 18.2N
66.1W or about 13 nm SSW of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 921 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt
with gusts to 160 kt, a Category 4. Numerous strong convection
is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere within 175 nm of the center. Maria is moving across
Puerto Rico today, and will pass just north of the northeast
coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Please see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/1200 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 143 nm
south of Nantucket Massachusetts near 38.8N 70.2W, moving
northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 70 kt.
Scattered moderate convection lays on the NW quadrant of the
storm from 38N to 41N between 70W and 75W. The center of Jose is
expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING...

A 1008 mb low in the central Atlc, or the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Lee, are located near 18N46W. Showers and
thunderstorms have significantly decreased near the low pressure
area the last couple of hours. Scattered moderate convection and
tstms are in the NE quadrant of the low center from 17N to 25N
between 40W and 46W. Gale-force winds prevails in the NE quadrant
of the low...within 270 nm of the center. An increase in the
organization of the deep convection would result in the
regeneration of Lee as it moves northward over the central
Atlantic Ocean. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone re-
development within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 18N27W
to 06N27W, moving west at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show dry air
has increased in the wave environment the last couple of hours
due to intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust. This is limiting
the convection to scattered moderate SW of the wave axis from
05N to 12N between 28W and 32W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
20N85W to 07N88W, moving west at 20 kt. CIRA TPW imagery
indicates the presence of dry air in the wave environment that
along with strong subsidence from aloft, and strong vertical wind
shear support lack of convection in the far NW Caribbean W of
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
12N16W to 11N28W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to
09N48W to 09N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N
between 32W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin. Ridging aloft
over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence continue to
support clear skies, except for scattered showers and tstms over
the Bay of Campeche due to proximity of a tropical wave that
already moved over the EPAC waters S of Mexico. Winds will shift
from SE to E Thursday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 4 Hurricane Maria is moving across Puerto Rico this
morning. The eye of Maria is forecast to exit Puerto Rico by the
north during the afternoon hours, and pass just north of the
northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
See the special features section for further details. Low level
wind convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean
is producing a large area of isolated showers and tstms in the SW
Caribbean from S of 15N W of 77W. Scatterometer data shows mainly
light to gentle trade winds west of 71W, with the remainder of
the basin N of 12N experiencing cyclonic winds associated with
Hurricane Maria.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are in the Mona Passage and E Dominican
Republic adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across
the island. However, weather conditions will deteriorate across
the Island this morning associated with the rainbands of
Hurricane Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will
increase as the system moves NW very close of the Island on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. There is a gale warning
associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Lee along
with scattered moderate convection. See gale warning section
above. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
32N41W to 30N42W to 25N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed east of the trough north of 23N between 38W-44W. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad
surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 09/20/2017 - 02:09
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NE... ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the West on Thursday, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/mixing of a dry airmass will result in an increasing fire weather threat on Thursday, and a critical area has been introduced across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. The northern extent of the critical area is constrained by weaker wind speeds in closer proximity to the surface low, while the southern and eastern extent are constrained by uncertainty regarding the critical RH potential, and also by increasingly marginal fuel conditions. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO... Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, and northwest NM on Thursday, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. At this time, the best chance for critical wind/RH appears to be displaced to the west of the drier fuels, so no upgrade has been made for this region. ..Dean.. 09/20/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 09/20/2017 - 02:08
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper trough over the West is expected to amplify today, as an embedded shortwave trough drops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into portions of CA/NV. Relatively dry and windy conditions will persist over portions of the Southwest and also across parts of the central High Plains, resulting in an elevated fire weather threat. ...Northeast AZ/Northwest NM into the Four Corners Region... Sufficient residual low-midlevel flow and dry conditions will result in the development of elevated to locally critical wind/RH conditions over portions of AZ/NM into southern UT/southwest CO. Fuels are rather marginal across this region, though some curing of finer fuels will have occurred on Tuesday. The elevated area has been maintained over portions of northeast AZ/northwest NM into the Four Corners region, where the most substantial wind/RH conditions appear likely to develop. At this time, the best chance for critical wind/RH appears to be over northeast AZ/southeast UT, where fuels are quite marginal, displaced to the west of the drier fuels over northwest NM. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Relatively dry and breezy conditions are expected over portions of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. At this time, confidence in a sufficient duration of critical wind/RH at any one location is too low for an upgrade. ..Dean.. 09/20/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 09/20/2017 - 01:06

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/0600 UTC, major Hurricane Maria was located near 17.6N 65.1W
or about 15 nm west-southwest of Saint Croix, and 75 nm southeast
of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The present movement of Maria is west-
northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 910
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, a
Category 5. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the
center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 180 nm
of the center. The eye of Maria will cross Puerto Rico today
Wednesday, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Please see the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

At 20/0600 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose was located about 175 nm
south of Nantucket Massachusetts near 38.2N 70.5W, moving
northeast at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Scattered moderate convection lays on the NW quadrant of the storm
from 37N to 41N between 70W and 73W. The center of Jose is
expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING...

A 1008 mb low in the central Atlc, or the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Lee, are located near 17N44W. Showers and
thunderstorms have increased near the low pressure area and gale-
force winds are already in the E quadrant of the low...within 75
nm of the center. Numerous moderate/isolated strong convection is
mainly to the north of the low from 16N to 20N between 41W and
45W. An increase in the organization of the deep convection would
result in the regeneration of Lee as it moves northward over the
central Atlantic Ocean. There is a medium chance for tropical
cyclone re-development within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 18N25W
to 06N26W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is mainly within a
region of abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA
TPW imagery. However, enhanced IR imagery show intrusion of Saharan
dry air and dust to the W environment of the wave. This is
limiting the convection to scattered moderate from 07N to 14N
between 24W and 30W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N85W to 09N86W, moving west at 20 kt. CIRA TPW
imagery indicates the presence of dry air in the wave environment
that along with strong subsidence from aloft, and strong vertical
wind shear support lack of convection in the far NW Caribbean W of
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
13N17W to 10N27W to 07N34W. The ITCZ extends from 07N34W to 08N43W
to 08N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between
30W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin with the
exception of moderate locally fresh SE winds within 90 nm of the
coast of Texas. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry
air subsidence continue to support clear skies, except for
scattered showers and tstms over the E Bay of Campeche associated
with the proximity of a tropical wave that already moved over the
EPAC waters S of Mexico. Winds will shift from SE to E Thursday
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 Hurricane Maria is moving across the northeast
Caribbean waters and is expected to reach southeastern Puerto Rico
this morning. The eye of Maria then will cross Puerto Rico during
the day, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the
Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. See the special
features section for further details. Low level wind convergence
east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is producing a
large area of scattered showers and isolated tstms in the SW
Caribbean from S of 15N W of 77W. Expect the wave to continue
moving west with convection mainly east-southeast of the wave
axis. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle trade winds
west of 71W, with the remainder of the basin N of 15N experiencing
cyclonic winds associated with Hurricane Maria. Fresh to locally
strong winds are off the Nicaragua coast associated with the
aforementioned convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage and southern Haiti
adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across the island.
Weather conditions will deteriorate across the Island starting
Wed morning associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane
Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will increase as
the system moves WNW very close of the Island on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and recently downgraded Tropical Storm Jose.
There is a gale warning associated with the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Lee along with strong convection. See gale
warning section above. A surface trough over the central Atlantic
extends from 32N41W to 30N42W to 25N44W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed east of the trough north of 23N between
38W-44W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of
a broad surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 19:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Updated Hurricane Information

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/0000 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located near 17.0N 64.2W or
about 50 nm southeast of Saint Croix, moving west-northwest at 9
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 150 kt with gusts to 180 kt, a Category 5.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the
center. The tiny eye of Maria will approach St. Croix in the US
Virgin Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/0000 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 230 nm south-
southwest of Nantucket Massachusetts near 37.5N 71.2W, moving
north-northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80
kt. Convection associated with Jose is well north of the
discussion area. The center of Jose is expected to remain well
offshore and pass well to the east of the northeast U.S. coast
through Thursday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave west of Africa extends from 19N21W to 07N25W,
and is moving west at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of
abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave
as it interacts with the convergence zone is from 07N-13N
between 21W-25W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N82W to 11N85W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA
TPW imagery indicates extensive dry air in the northern wave
environment. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support
isolated convection south of 15N between 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging with light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail in the basin around a 1017 mb high centered near 28N88W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche and west of
the Yucatan peninsula are associated with the northern part of a
tropical wave in EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf
along with dry air subsidence will continue to support fair
weather conditions through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 major Hurricane Maria is moving across the northeast
Caribbean waters, and will approach St. Croix in the US Virgin
Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday. See the
special features section for further details. Low level wind
convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is
producing a large area of moderate to strong convection in the
SW Caribbean from 10N-14N between 79W-82W. Expect the wave to
continue moving west with convection mainly east-southeast of
the wave axis. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle
trade winds west of 70W, with the remainder of the basin
experiencing cyclonic winds associated with Hurricane Maria.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across the
western past of the Dominican Republic. Weather conditions will
deteriorate significantly across the island Wednesday from the
outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. The eye of Maria is forecast
to move northwest, passing over or very close to the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday with destructive winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Jose. The remnant circulation of T.D. Lee
is located near 17N45W and are expected to move northwest during
the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 200 nm east and northeast of the low center. A surface
trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N41W to 29N42W
to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the
trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 18:10

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/2100 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located near 16.8N 64.0W or
about 70 nm southeast of Saint Croix, moving west-northwest at 9
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, a Category 5.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the
center. The tiny eye of Maria will approach St. Croix in the US
Virgin Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 19/2100 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 235 nm east-
northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina near 37.2N 71.3W,
moving north-northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts
to 80 kt. Convection associated with Jose is well north of the
discussion area. The center of Jose is expected to remain well
offshore and pass well to the east of the northeast U.S. coast
through Thursday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave west of Africa extends from 19N21W to 07N25W,
and is moving west at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of
abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave
as it interacts with the convergence zone is from 07N-13N
between 21W-25W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N82W to 11N85W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA
TPW imagery indicates extensive dry air in the northern wave
environment. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support
isolated convection south of 15N between 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging with light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail in the basin around a 1017 mb high centered near 28N88W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche and west of
the Yucatan peninsula are associated with the northern part of a
tropical wave in EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf
along with dry air subsidence will continue to support fair
weather conditions through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 major Hurricane Maria is moving across the northeast
Caribbean waters, and will approach St. Croix in the US Virgin
Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday. See the
special features section for further details. Low level wind
convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is
producing a large area of moderate to strong convection in the
SW Caribbean from 10N-14N between 79W-82W. Expect the wave to
continue moving west with convection mainly east-southeast of
the wave axis. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle
trade winds west of 70W, with the remainder of the basin
experiencing cyclonic winds associated with Hurricane Maria.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across the
western past of the Dominican Republic. Weather conditions will
deteriorate significantly across the island Wednesday from the
outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. The eye of Maria is forecast
to move northwest, passing over or very close to the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday with destructive winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Jose. The remnant circulation of T.D. Lee
is located near 17N45W and are expected to move northwest during
the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 200 nm east and northeast of the low center. A surface
trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N41W to 29N42W
to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the
trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 14:09
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Central/Northern High Plains... An elevated area has been introduced from northern Colorado to northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. With southwesterly flow aloft still positioned over the region Wednesday, another bout of lee troughing will yield breezy south/southwesterly winds during the afternoon hours. A combination of sustained winds around 15-30 mph and RH values around 15-25% will overlie dry fine fuels to promote elevated/locally critical conditions on Wednesday. ..Picca.. 09/19/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper trough over the West is expected to amplify on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough drops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into portions of CA/NV. Relatively dry and windy conditions will persist over portions of the Southwest, while weaker winds are expected over the central/southern Plains as a strong cyclone moves away from the region. ...Northeast AZ/Northwest NM into the Four Corners Region... Sufficient residual low-midlevel flow and dry conditions will result in the development of elevated to locally critical wind/RH conditions over portions of AZ/NM into southern UT/southwest CO. Fuels are generally not very dry across this region, though some curing of finer fuels will have occurred on D1/Tuesday. An elevated area has been delineated over portions of northeast AZ/northwest NM into the Four Corners region, where the most substantial wind/RH conditions appear likely to develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 14:09
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Central/Northern High Plains... An elevated area has been introduced from northern Colorado to northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. With southwesterly flow aloft still positioned over the region Wednesday, another bout of lee troughing will yield breezy south/southwesterly winds during the afternoon hours. A combination of sustained winds around 15-30 mph and RH values around 15-25% will overlie dry fine fuels to promote elevated/locally critical conditions on Wednesday. ..Picca.. 09/19/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper trough over the West is expected to amplify on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough drops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into portions of CA/NV. Relatively dry and windy conditions will persist over portions of the Southwest, while weaker winds are expected over the central/southern Plains as a strong cyclone moves away from the region. ...Northeast AZ/Northwest NM into the Four Corners Region... Sufficient residual low-midlevel flow and dry conditions will result in the development of elevated to locally critical wind/RH conditions over portions of AZ/NM into southern UT/southwest CO. Fuels are generally not very dry across this region, though some curing of finer fuels will have occurred on D1/Tuesday. An elevated area has been delineated over portions of northeast AZ/northwest NM into the Four Corners region, where the most substantial wind/RH conditions appear likely to develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 14:09
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Central/Northern High Plains... An elevated area has been introduced from northern Colorado to northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. With southwesterly flow aloft still positioned over the region Wednesday, another bout of lee troughing will yield breezy south/southwesterly winds during the afternoon hours. A combination of sustained winds around 15-30 mph and RH values around 15-25% will overlie dry fine fuels to promote elevated/locally critical conditions on Wednesday. ..Picca.. 09/19/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper trough over the West is expected to amplify on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough drops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into portions of CA/NV. Relatively dry and windy conditions will persist over portions of the Southwest, while weaker winds are expected over the central/southern Plains as a strong cyclone moves away from the region. ...Northeast AZ/Northwest NM into the Four Corners Region... Sufficient residual low-midlevel flow and dry conditions will result in the development of elevated to locally critical wind/RH conditions over portions of AZ/NM into southern UT/southwest CO. Fuels are generally not very dry across this region, though some curing of finer fuels will have occurred on D1/Tuesday. An elevated area has been delineated over portions of northeast AZ/northwest NM into the Four Corners region, where the most substantial wind/RH conditions appear likely to develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 12:23

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/1500 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is located near 16.3N
63.1W or about 200 nm west of Guadeloupe, moving west-northwest
at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. SCattered
to numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center in
all quadrants and from 12N-20N between 58W-66W. The eye of Maria
will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 19/1500 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 200 nm east-
northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 36.5N 71.7W,
moving north at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
976 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 36N-41N between 70W-74W.
The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the
Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New
Jersey coast on Wednesday, and continue offshore of southeastern
Massachusetts by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the west coast of Africa earlier this
morning. Its axis extends from 19N18W to 07N18W. The wave is in a
region of abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA
LPW and TPW imagery. This combined with upper-level diffluent
flow supports scattered moderate convection along the southern
portion of the wave south of 13N and west of the wave's axis,
mostly along the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N81W to 09N84W, moving west at about 15 kt. CIRA LPW
imagery at the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the
northern wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and diffluent
flow aloft support scattered moderate convection south of 15N
between 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin with light and
variable winds over most of the area with the exception of
moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of the coast of
Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche.
Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are associated with the
northern region of a tropical wave moving over EPAC waters.
Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence
continue to support clear skies. This pattern will continue
through the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Major Hurricane Maria is moving in the vicinity of the Leeward
Islands and NE Caribbean waters. The eye of Maria will continue to
move over the northeastern Caribbean today, approaching the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see special
features for further details. The other area of weather in the
basin is related to a tropical wave described in the section
above. Light to gentle trades prevail west of 70W, as noted in
scatterometer data. Expect for the tropical wave to continue
moving west with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair weather prevails across the island. Weather
conditions will deteriorate across starting Wednesday morning
associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. This
activity will increase as the system moves west-northwest very
close of the island on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Jose. The remnants
of T.D. Lee are located near 16N45W and are forecast to move
northwest during the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection
is within 200 nm over the northeast quadrant of the low center. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic extending from 32N41W
to 26N46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of this
trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 10:59
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are made to the ongoing forecast. Critical conditions are still expected across parts of the central High Plains and also northwest New Mexico. Elsewhere, while a critical combination of wind/low RH will occur in spots, marginal fuels will preclude a higher fire-weather threat. ..Picca.. 09/19/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ ...Synopsis... One strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains today, while another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cyclone and attendant trough will move eastward across the Plains. Dry and windy conditions will overspread much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains, resulting in a broad area of elevated to potentially critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region into the Southern/Central High Plains... As low/midlevel flow increases in response to the upper trough and associated surface low, relatively strong low-level southwesterly flow is expected to develop from the Southwest into the High Plains. As sustained winds increase into the 20-30 mph range this afternoon, substantial drying/mixing will result in the development of potentially critical RH values from northeast AZ eastward into western KS. While this pattern would typically result in a widespread critical fire weather threat from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains, generally marginal fuel conditions should mitigate the potential for a more substantial threat in many locations. Two critical areas have been delineated in this outlook. The first critical area covers portions of eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE where recent rainfall has been somewhat less than surrounding areas, and also where there is high confidence in several hours of critical wind/RH. A second critical area has been included across portions of northwest NM, where recent fuel guidance suggests the presence of somewhat drier fuels. Surrounding the critical areas, much of the Four Corners region eastward into northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles will also see critical wind/RH, but no upgrade has been made in these areas due to generally marginal fuel conditions. Locally critical conditions may also develop further north into portions of southeast WY, the NE Panhandle, and perhaps southwest SD, though considerable uncertainty remains in these areas with regard to timing of the cold front and the duration of any critical wind/RH conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 10:59
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... No changes are made to the ongoing forecast. Critical conditions are still expected across parts of the central High Plains and also northwest New Mexico. Elsewhere, while a critical combination of wind/low RH will occur in spots, marginal fuels will preclude a higher fire-weather threat. ..Picca.. 09/19/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ ...Synopsis... One strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains today, while another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cyclone and attendant trough will move eastward across the Plains. Dry and windy conditions will overspread much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains, resulting in a broad area of elevated to potentially critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region into the Southern/Central High Plains... As low/midlevel flow increases in response to the upper trough and associated surface low, relatively strong low-level southwesterly flow is expected to develop from the Southwest into the High Plains. As sustained winds increase into the 20-30 mph range this afternoon, substantial drying/mixing will result in the development of potentially critical RH values from northeast AZ eastward into western KS. While this pattern would typically result in a widespread critical fire weather threat from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains, generally marginal fuel conditions should mitigate the potential for a more substantial threat in many locations. Two critical areas have been delineated in this outlook. The first critical area covers portions of eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE where recent rainfall has been somewhat less than surrounding areas, and also where there is high confidence in several hours of critical wind/RH. A second critical area has been included across portions of northwest NM, where recent fuel guidance suggests the presence of somewhat drier fuels. Surrounding the critical areas, much of the Four Corners region eastward into northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles will also see critical wind/RH, but no upgrade has been made in these areas due to generally marginal fuel conditions. Locally critical conditions may also develop further north into portions of southeast WY, the NE Panhandle, and perhaps southwest SD, though considerable uncertainty remains in these areas with regard to timing of the cold front and the duration of any critical wind/RH conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 07:02

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/1200 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is located near 16.2N
62.8W or about 74 nm W of Guadeloupe, moving WNW at 8 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Numerous strong
convection and tstms are within 120 nm of the center in all
quadrants and from 09N to 16N between 57W and 63W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 57W and
66W. The eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
tonight and Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 19/1200 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 204 nm ENE of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 36.3N 71.6W, moving N at 8 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 36N to 39N between 68W and 73W. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere from 30N to 40N between 62W and
76W. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the
Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New
Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern
Massachusetts by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the W coast of Africa earlier this
morning. Its axis extends from 19N16W to 07N17W. The wave is in a
region of low vertical wind shear, and abundant low to middle
level moisture as shown by CIRA LPW and TPW imagery. Upper level
diffluent flow supports scattered moderate convection from 06N to
13N between 14W and 22W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N79W to 08N83W, moving west at about 15 kt. The wave is in
a region of moderate vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery at
the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the northern
wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and diffluent flow
aloft support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 18N between
78W and 84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
13N17W to 07N30W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W and
continues along 08N45W to 08N53W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of
the coast of Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of
Campeche. Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are
associated with the northern region of a tropical wave moving
over EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with
dry air subsidence continue to support clear skies, except for
scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche associated with the
tropical wave. Surface high pressure will dominate across the
basin through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Major Hurricane Maria is moving across the Leeward Islands and NE
Caribbean waters. The eye of Maria will continue to move over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see special
features for further details. The remaining weather in the basin
is associated with a tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean
waters. See the tropical waves section for more information.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient due to Hurricanes Maria
and Jose allow for light to gentle trades W of 67W. Expect for
the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage and southern Haiti
adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across the island.
Weather conditions will deteriorate across the Island starting
Wed morning associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane
Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will increase as
the system moves WNW very close of the Island on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Jose. The remnants
of T.D. Lee are located near 15N43W and are forecast to move NW
during the next 24 hours. Numerous strong convection and
scattered tstms are within 150 nm NE quadrant of the low center.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 23N
between 37W and 44W. A surface trough is over the central Atlc
extending from 30N40W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection
is E of this trough N of 23N between 33W and 40W. The remainder
of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface
ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 06:21

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/0900 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is located near 16.0N
62.3W or about 45 nm WSW of Guadeloupe and 165 nm SE of St.
Croix, moving WNW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 934 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165
kt. Numerous strong convection and tstms are within 120 nm of the
center in all quadrants and from 09N to 16N between 57W and 63W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 19N
between 57W and 66W. The eye of Maria will move over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 19/0900 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 210 nm ENE of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 36.0N 71.3W, moving N at 8 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 36N to 39N between 68W and 73W. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere from 30N to 40N between 62W and
76W. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the
Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New
Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern
Massachusetts by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the W coast of Africa earlier this
morning. Its axis extends from 19N16W to 07N17W. The wave is in a
region of low vertical wind shear, and abundant low to middle
level moisture as shown by CIRA LPW and TPW imagery. Upper level
diffluent flow supports scattered moderate convection from 06N to
13N between 14W and 22W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N79W to 08N83W, moving west at about 15 kt. The wave is in
a region of moderate vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery at
the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the northern
wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and diffluent flow
aloft support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 18N between
78W and 84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
13N17W to 07N30W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W and
continues along 08N45W to 08N53W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of
the coast of Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of
Campeche. Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are
associated with the northern region of a tropical wave moving
over EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with
dry air subsidence continue to support clear skies, except for
scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche associated with the
tropical wave. Surface high pressure will dominate across the
basin through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Major Hurricane Maria is moving across the Leeward Islands and NE
Caribbean waters. The eye of Maria will continue to move over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see special
features for further details. The remaining weather in the basin
is associated with a tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean
waters. See the tropical waves section for more information.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient due to Hurricanes Maria
and Jose allow for light to gentle trades W of 67W. Expect for
the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage and southern Haiti
adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across the island.
Weather conditions will deteriorate across the Island starting
Wed morning associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane
Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will increase as
the system moves WNW very close of the Island on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Jose. The remnants
of T.D. Lee are located near 15N43W and are forecast to move NW
during the next 24 hours. Numerous strong convection and
scattered tstms are within 150 nm NE quadrant of the low center.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 23N
between 37W and 44W. A surface trough is over the central Atlc
extending from 30N40W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection
is E of this trough N of 23N between 33W and 40W. The remainder
of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface
ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 02:29
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The large-scale upper trough over the West is expected to amplify on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough drops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into portions of CA/NV. Relatively dry and windy conditions will persist over portions of the Southwest, while weaker winds are expected over the central/southern Plains as a strong cyclone moves away from the region. ...Northeast AZ/Northwest NM into the Four Corners Region... Sufficient residual low-midlevel flow and dry conditions will result in the development of elevated to locally critical wind/RH conditions over portions of AZ/NM into southern UT/southwest CO. Fuels are generally not very dry across this region, though some curing of finer fuels will have occurred on D1/Tuesday. An elevated area has been delineated over portions of northeast AZ/northwest NM into the Four Corners region, where the most substantial wind/RH conditions appear likely to develop. ..Dean.. 09/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 02:28
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NM... ...Synopsis... One strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains today, while another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cyclone and attendant trough will move eastward across the Plains. Dry and windy conditions will overspread much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains, resulting in a broad area of elevated to potentially critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region into the Southern/Central High Plains... As low/midlevel flow increases in response to the upper trough and associated surface low, relatively strong low-level southwesterly flow is expected to develop from the Southwest into the High Plains. As sustained winds increase into the 20-30 mph range this afternoon, substantial drying/mixing will result in the development of potentially critical RH values from northeast AZ eastward into western KS. While this pattern would typically result in a widespread critical fire weather threat from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains, generally marginal fuel conditions should mitigate the potential for a more substantial threat in many locations. Two critical areas have been delineated in this outlook. The first critical area covers portions of eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE where recent rainfall has been somewhat less than surrounding areas, and also where there is high confidence in several hours of critical wind/RH. A second critical area has been included across portions of northwest NM, where recent fuel guidance suggests the presence of somewhat drier fuels. Surrounding the critical areas, much of the Four Corners region eastward into northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles will also see critical wind/RH, but no upgrade has been made in these areas due to generally marginal fuel conditions. Locally critical conditions may also develop further north into portions of southeast WY, the NE Panhandle, and perhaps southwest SD, though considerable uncertainty remains in these areas with regard to timing of the cold front and the duration of any critical wind/RH conditions. ..Dean.. 09/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 09/19/2017 - 02:28
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NM... ...Synopsis... One strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains today, while another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cyclone and attendant trough will move eastward across the Plains. Dry and windy conditions will overspread much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains, resulting in a broad area of elevated to potentially critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region into the Southern/Central High Plains... As low/midlevel flow increases in response to the upper trough and associated surface low, relatively strong low-level southwesterly flow is expected to develop from the Southwest into the High Plains. As sustained winds increase into the 20-30 mph range this afternoon, substantial drying/mixing will result in the development of potentially critical RH values from northeast AZ eastward into western KS. While this pattern would typically result in a widespread critical fire weather threat from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains, generally marginal fuel conditions should mitigate the potential for a more substantial threat in many locations. Two critical areas have been delineated in this outlook. The first critical area covers portions of eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE where recent rainfall has been somewhat less than surrounding areas, and also where there is high confidence in several hours of critical wind/RH. A second critical area has been included across portions of northwest NM, where recent fuel guidance suggests the presence of somewhat drier fuels. Surrounding the critical areas, much of the Four Corners region eastward into northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles will also see critical wind/RH, but no upgrade has been made in these areas due to generally marginal fuel conditions. Locally critical conditions may also develop further north into portions of southeast WY, the NE Panhandle, and perhaps southwest SD, though considerable uncertainty remains in these areas with regard to timing of the cold front and the duration of any critical wind/RH conditions. ..Dean.. 09/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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