Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 06:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 34N31W, about 300 nm to the
SSW of the Azores. A surface trough extends from the low center
to 30N30W 27N33W 26N40W. Rainshowers are possible from 25N
northward between 28W and 40W. The low center is supported aloft
by a middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center, that
is near 34N29W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers from 30N to 37N between
25W and 30W. This low pressure center has a medium chance of
becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next couple of days as
it moves to the NE, before upper-level winds become unfavorable.
Expect near gale-force winds during the next day or two.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 08N22W,
04N30W, 05N41W, and 03N46W. Precipitation: scattered strong from
03N to 05N between 10W and 13W. scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 04N to 09N between 14W and 20W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 08N between 17W and 25W.
isolated moderate to locally strong from 08N to 13N between 20W
and 53W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 15N southward
from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean to the S and SE of the line from 26N15W to 25N22W to 14N50W
to 08N52W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are in this same area.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough passes through coastal South Carolina, to
east-central Florida into the SE corner of the area. The trough
supports a cold front, that passes through 32N73W to the Florida
coast near 29N81W. A surface trough is from 120 nm to 180 nm to
the east of the cold front from 26N to 32N. Upper level NW wind
flow is moving across the entire Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, across Cuba, and beyond the Bahamas. The upper
level SW wind flow is part of a larger-scale area of anticyclonic
wind flow that is extending from the Caribbean Sea, across the
Greater Antilles, into the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 25N southward from 90W eastward.

Mist and fog are being reported from Alice Texas to interior
sections of the deep South of Texas.

A surface ridge passes through SW Louisiana, through the deep
south of Texas, to Mexico near 20N98W, into the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The current pressure gradient is expected to relax somewhat by
Wednesday. The wind speeds will be decreasing, into gentle-to-
moderate breezes, and gentle southerly return flow re-
establishing itself across the NW waters.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
A ridge extends from the SW corner of the area, beyond 30N65W in
the Atlantic Ocean.

A surface trough extends from a 1005 mb low pressure center that
is near 11N78W, to 15N81W. Precipitation: scattered strong from
the Colombia/Venezuela border near 09N73W to the Caribbean Sea
from 13N southward between 73W and 80W.

A second surface trough extends from 23N75W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Cuba to 18N81W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 20N northward from 63W westward. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow is moving on top of this area, with
the upper level ridge that runs from the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea to 30N65W in the Atlantic Ocean.

A third surface trough is along 17N83W, into the Gulf of Honduras.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 14N northward
from 73W westward, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail, and they are expected to
persist through Tuesday. Global models indicate a broad and
stretched out area of surface low pressure developing from the
waters NE of Cuba to Jamaica and into the SW Caribbean Tuesday
night into Wednesday quickly moving E-NE and merging with a
frontal boundary in the SW North Atlc Wednesday night into
Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the Windward Passage. Some showers are reaching parts of SW Haiti.
Surface observations are not reporting rainshowers. Cumulonimbus
clouds are being reported in Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic. Upper-level W-to-NW wind flow is moving across the
area. Low-level moisture convergence continues to be maximized
across the region within E-SE tradewinds. This overall pattern
will persist through Thursday with precipitation expected to
increase during the next 24 to 48 hours.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is along 24N27W 21N28W 17N29W. Upper level
SW wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the S and SE of the
line from 26N15W to 25N22W to 14N50W to 08N52W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in this same
area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 00:52
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the Upper Midwest will continue to shift eastward toward the lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday. As this occurs, an upper ridge will briefly build over the Plains ahead of another upper trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue tracking south/southeast across the southern Plains and mid-South. A lack of strong winds aligned with lower RH conditions will preclude fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 11/14/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 00:51
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper shortwave trough will track eastward from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest today and tonight. This will lead to enhanced deep layer westerlies across the central and northern Rockies and induce lee trough development across the High Plains. A surface cold front also will track east/southeast across the northern and central Plains, becoming positioned from the upper Great Lakes to western north Texas by Wednesday morning. Dry downslope winds and low RH values will overspread much of the southern and central High Plains from eastern NM into southeast WY. Wind speeds generally will be light except near the central mountains of NM and the Laramie Range in WY where breezier conditions are anticipated. Some local/brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible in these locations, though a widespread, longer-duration threat is not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/14/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 00:06

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 32N31W, about 390 nm to the
SSW of the Azores. A surface trough extends from the low center to
30N31W 27N33W 24N36W. Rainshowers are possible from 25N northward
between 30W and 40W. The low center is supported aloft by a
middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center, that is
near 33N31W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers from 30N to 36N between
26W and 32W. This low pressure center has a medium chance of
becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next couple of days as
it moves to the NE, before upper-level winds become unfavorable.
Expect near gale-force winds during the next day or two.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 08N24W,
04N35W, 04N49W, and into Brazil, and French Guiana near 03N53W.
Precipitation: scattered strong from 04N to 06N between 09W and
12W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 09N between
14W and 20W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward from
60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
to the S and SE of the line from 26N15W to 23N30W to 13N45W to
07N56W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are in this same area.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough passes through central Florida into the SE
corner of the area. The trough supports a cold front, that passes
through 32N77W to the Florida coast near 30N81W, to 29N85W in the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the
Yucatan Channel, toward south Florida and beyond the Bahamas. The
upper level SW wind flow is part of a larger-scale area of
anticyclonic wind flow that is extending from the Caribbean Sea,
across the Greater Antilles, into the Atlantic Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 23N to 24N between 87W and
89W. rainshowers are possible in parts of the Straits of Florida,
south Florida, and toward the Bahamas.

A surface ridge passes through NE Texas, through the deep south
of Texas, to Mexico near 24N99W, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico.

The current pressure gradient is expected to relax somewhat by
Wednesday. The wind speeds will be decreasing, into gentle-to-
moderate breezes, and gentle southerly return flow re-
establishing itself across the NW waters.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
A ridge extends from the SW corner of the area, beyond 30N69W in
the Atlantic Ocean.

A surface trough extends from a 1005 mb low pressure center that
is near 11N78W, to 15N81W, to 20N81W, near the Cayman Islands.
Precipitation: widely scattered to isolated strong rainshowers
from 73W westward, including in the Windward Passage, along the
coast of Colombia.

A second surface trough extends from Cuba near 21N77W, across the
central Bahamas, to 26N74W in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N northward
from 63W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving on
top of this area, with the upper level ridge that runs from the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea to 30N69W in the Atlantic Ocean.

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail, and they are expected to
persist through Tuesday. Global models indicate a broad and
stretched out area of surface low pressure developing from the
waters NE of Cuba to Jamaica and into the SW Caribbean Tuesday
night into Wednesday quickly moving E-NE and merging with a
frontal boundary in the SW North Atlc Wednesday night into
Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the Windward Passage. Surface observations are not reporting
rainshowers. Cumulonimbus clouds are being reported in Port-au-
Prince in Haiti. Upper-level W wind flow is moving across the
area. Low-level moisture convergence continues to be maximized
across the region within E-SE tradewinds. This overall pattern
will persist through Thursday with precipitation expected to
increase during the next 24 to 48 hours.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is along 23N25W 20N27W 16N28W. Upper level
SW wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
to the S and SE of the line from 26N15W to 23N30W to 13N45W to
07N56W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are in this same area.
ar 32N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 17:37

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 mb low is centered near 32N32W and is supported aloft by a
vigorous middle to upper level low near 32N31W. Isolated moderate
convection is occurring near the center from 30N-33N between
28W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring farther NE in
association with warm and cold fronts impacting the Azores this
evening from 33N-39N between 25W-31W. This low pressure area has a
medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next
couple of days as it moves to the NE. Regardless of subtropical
development...fresh to strong cyclonic winds are expected across
the Azores through Thursday.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N17W to 06N23W to 07N40W to 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-13N between 14W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough extends over the Gulf basin this evening
from over northern Florida SW to a base over the SW waters near
20N94W. Middle to upper level divergence E of the trough axis is
supporting isolated showers generally across the SE Gulf waters S
of 25N E of 88W...including the southern Florida peninsula and
Florida Straits. Elsewhere across the basin...high pressure
anchored across the Great Lakes region is generating moderate to
fresh N-NE winds. The current pressure gradient is expected to
relax somewhat by Wednesday with decreasing winds into gentle to
moderate breeze levels and gentle southerly return flow re-
establishing itself across the NW waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Middle to upper level divergence prevails over much of the western
Caribbean this evening generating a broad area of scattered showers
and widely scattered tstms W of 75W...including the eastern
Yucatan peninsula and Belize...and portions of Nicaragua...Costa
Rica...and Panama. Enhancing this ongoing convection is the
monsoon trough axis along 10N and a 1006 mb low centered near
10N77W with a surface trough extending N-NW from the low to the
south-central adjacent coastal waters of Cuba near 21N80W. Outside
the area of active convection...moderate to fresh trades prevail
and are expected to persist through Tuesday. Global models
indicate a broad and stretched out area of surface low pressure
developing from the waters NE of Cuba to Jamaica and into the SW
Caribbean Tuesday night into Wednesday quickly moving E-NE and
merging with a frontal boundary in the SW North Atlc Wednesday
night into Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers and tstms continue across the island this
evening as the region remains within west-southwesterly flow
aloft. Becoming a more favorable environment aloft through
Wednesday...low-level moisture convergence continues to be
maximized across the region within E-SE trades. This overall
pattern will persist through Thursday with convection expected to
increase during the next 24 to 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough extends from over the Carolinas SW
to over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Southwesterly flow aloft
prevails over much of the SW North Atlc with moisture and
cloudiness advecting northeastward out of the Caribbean Sea. An
overall divergent environment aloft is supporting a large area of
scattered to occasional numerous showers and widely scattered
tstms from 20N-32N between 66W-80W. Otherwise...farther east...a
surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 32N49W
continues to provide mostly tranquil conditions between 40W-60W.
Finally...the special features section above describes the
gradually development of a 1010 mb low centered near 32N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 13:12
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist in portions of central New Mexico and southeastern Wyoming, although fuel states will generally be unfavorable. No areas will be highlighted for this outlook. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/13/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will migrate east across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the surface, elongated area of low pressure ahead of the upper trough will stretch from the southern High Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan south/southwest to north Texas by Wednesday morning. Further east, high pressure will result in continental trajectories across the southeastern states. This will lead to some lower RH values, but winds will be weak and fuel conditions unfavorable, precluding any fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 13:12
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated fire weather conditions will exist in portions of central New Mexico and southeastern Wyoming, although fuel states will generally be unfavorable. No areas will be highlighted for this outlook. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/13/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will migrate east across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the surface, elongated area of low pressure ahead of the upper trough will stretch from the southern High Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan south/southwest to north Texas by Wednesday morning. Further east, high pressure will result in continental trajectories across the southeastern states. This will lead to some lower RH values, but winds will be weak and fuel conditions unfavorable, precluding any fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 11:46

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N17W to 06N40W to the coast of South America near 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 21W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central and south
Florida, and the Straits of Florida, partially due to residual
moisture from a dissipated front. Radar imagery also shows
scattered showers over S Texas and NE Mexico from 24N-28N between
95W-102W. More scattered showers are over the SW Bay of Campeche.
10-20 kt NE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. In the
upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis from
the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong subsidence is
over the Gulf, except over the SE Gulf and S Florida. Upper level
diffluence is also over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. Expect
over the next 48 hours for surface ridging to build over the Gulf
with scattered showers persisting over the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the W Caribbean from 21N79W to
12N80W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is over most of
the NW Caribbean N of 15N between 74W-88W. Further S, a 1007 mb
low is along the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the low. In the
upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NW Caribbean
enhancing convection. An upper level high is centered over
Colombia near 07N73W. Expect additional convection over the
central and SW Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola mostly due to upper level
diffluence. Expect showers to transition to convection over the
next 24 hours. Convection will be heaviest in the afternoon and
evening hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-
threatening mud slides are also possible over the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N61W to 25N64W.
This trough is now void of convection. Scattered moderate
convection is over the S Bahamas from 20N-23N between 72W-78W. A
surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 23N26W through
the Cape Verde Islands to 13N21W. Scattered showers are within 180
nm of the trough. A 1013 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic
near 31N33W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 24N33W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low and within 60 nm of
the trough. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical
characteristics during the next few days while it moves slowly
northeastward. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough
is over the far W Atlantic. A large upper level low is centered
over the E Atlantic near 32N32W with a trough axis extending SW
to 22N45W. Upper level diffluence is E of this trough axis to the
coast of W Africa.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 09:57
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur in central Utah this afternoon where fuels are dry, although these conditions are expected to be too localized/marginal to necessitate highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Cook.. 11/13/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are not expected across the CONUS today. Strong surface high pressure will dominate east of the Mississippi River today. Quasi-zonal upper level flow will overspread much of the country, though a strong shortwave impulse will move over the Pacific Northwest and result in modest height falls across the northern and central Rockies. As this occurs, lee surface troughing along the High Plains will commence. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Four Corners region with modest downslope winds leading to dry conditions into the central High Plains. However, the lack of overlap in any stronger winds and low RH conditions will preclude any fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 09:57
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur in central Utah this afternoon where fuels are dry, although these conditions are expected to be too localized/marginal to necessitate highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Cook.. 11/13/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are not expected across the CONUS today. Strong surface high pressure will dominate east of the Mississippi River today. Quasi-zonal upper level flow will overspread much of the country, though a strong shortwave impulse will move over the Pacific Northwest and result in modest height falls across the northern and central Rockies. As this occurs, lee surface troughing along the High Plains will commence. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Four Corners region with modest downslope winds leading to dry conditions into the central High Plains. However, the lack of overlap in any stronger winds and low RH conditions will preclude any fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 05:19

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
09N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N17W to 06N37W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection and
tstms are from 04N-11N between 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends across the E CONUS SSW to a base
over the SW Gulf supporting isolated showers in the NE basin N of
26N. Southerly diffluent flow continue to support scattered
showers across the Yucatan Channel, the E Yucatan Peninsula and
the Florida Straits. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails
elsewhere. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure over the W Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong ENE
winds E of 90W, including the aforementioned areas being affected
by convection. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are elsewhere. Surface
ridging will dominate across the basin the next three days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad low pressure prevails across the western Caribbean
underneath a middle level low and southerly upper level diffluent
flow. This atmospheric scenario supports a surface trough along
20N79W to 12N80W and scattered heavy showers and tstms elsewhere
W of 74W. Middle to upper level diffluence support scattered
showers across the eastern half of Hispaniola. A middle level
ridge and dry air aloft provide stability and generally fair
weather to the eastern half of the Caribbean. A tight pressure
gradient between high pressure N of the area and the broad area of
low pressure in the western half of the Caribbean supports fresh
to locally strong winds in the NW Caribbean N of 14N W of 75W. A
broad low pressure will develop in the SW basin later today and
will persist beyond Wednesday, thus supporting the continuation of
showers in the western Caribbean. Otherwise, moderate to
occasional fresh trades E of 74W will persist.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle to upper level diffluence support scattered showers across
the eastern half of Hispaniola and cloudiness with possible
isolated showers elsewhere. This overall pattern will persist
through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Middle to upper level diffluence supports scattered showers in
the approaches of the Windward Passage and isolated showers across
the southern Bahamas. In the NE basin, a 1013 mb low is centered
near 30N34W. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some additional development, and the system could
become a subtropical cyclone during the next few days while it
moves slowly northeastward. There is a low chance of cyclogenesis
within the next 48 hours. Lastly, a surface trough extends from
23N26W to the Cape Verde Islands supporting showers there and
northward from 15N-30N between 21W-33W. Otherwise, surface ridging
prevails elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 00:50
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will migrate east across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the surface, elongated area of low pressure ahead of the upper trough will stretch from the southern High Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan south/southwest to north Texas by Wednesday morning. Further east, high pressure will result in continental trajectories across the southeastern states. This will lead to some lower RH values, but winds will be weak and fuel conditions unfavorable, precluding any fire weather concerns. ..Leitman.. 11/13/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 00:50
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will migrate east across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the surface, elongated area of low pressure ahead of the upper trough will stretch from the southern High Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan south/southwest to north Texas by Wednesday morning. Further east, high pressure will result in continental trajectories across the southeastern states. This will lead to some lower RH values, but winds will be weak and fuel conditions unfavorable, precluding any fire weather concerns. ..Leitman.. 11/13/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 00:49
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are not expected across the CONUS today. Strong surface high pressure will dominate east of the Mississippi River today. Quasi-zonal upper level flow will overspread much of the country, though a strong shortwave impulse will move over the Pacific Northwest and result in modest height falls across the northern and central Rockies. As this occurs, lee surface troughing along the High Plains will commence. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Four Corners region with modest downslope winds leading to dry conditions into the central High Plains. However, the lack of overlap in any stronger winds and low RH conditions will preclude any fire weather concerns. ..Leitman.. 11/13/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Mon, 11/13/2017 - 00:49
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are not expected across the CONUS today. Strong surface high pressure will dominate east of the Mississippi River today. Quasi-zonal upper level flow will overspread much of the country, though a strong shortwave impulse will move over the Pacific Northwest and result in modest height falls across the northern and central Rockies. As this occurs, lee surface troughing along the High Plains will commence. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Four Corners region with modest downslope winds leading to dry conditions into the central High Plains. However, the lack of overlap in any stronger winds and low RH conditions will preclude any fire weather concerns. ..Leitman.. 11/13/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 23:58

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
09N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N18W to 06N36W to 07N43W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 05N-14N between 19W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes SSW to a base
over the SW Gulf basin, which is supporting a surface trough from
SE Louisiana adjacent waters near 28N89W to 23N91W. Isolated showers
are occurring within 150 nm E of the surface trough axis N of
26N. The tail of a shear line that is across S Florida extends into
the SE Gulf from 26N81W to 25N83W. South of this boundary,
southerly diffluent flow supports scattered showers and isolated
tstms across the Yucatan Channel, the E Yucatan Peninsula and the
Florida Straits. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails elsewhere. A
tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over
the W Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong ENE winds E of
90W, including the aforementioned areas being affected by
convection. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are elsewhere. The shear
line is expected to slowly dissipate through Monday night as
stronger NE winds weaken.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad low pressure prevails across the western Caribbean
underneath a middle level low in the NW basin and southerly upper
level diffluent flow. This atmospheric scenario supports a surface
trough along 18N78W to 14N79W with associated numerous heavy
showers and tstms from 14N-19N between 77W-81W and scattered
moderate convection and tstms elsewhere W of 75W. Middle to upper
level diffluence support scattered showers across the western half
of Hispaniola and isolated showers across the remainder Dominican
Republic. A middle level ridge and dry air aloft provide stability
and generally fair weather to the eastern half of the Caribbean. A
tight pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and
the broad area of low pressure in the western half of the
Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong winds in the NW
Caribbean N of 14N W of 75W. The synoptic pattern aloft will
continue in place through Monday as the upper level troughing over
the Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc will be slow to weaken into
early next week. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh trades E
of 75W will persist.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle to upper level diffluence support scattered showers across
the western half of Hispaniola and isolated showers across the
remainder Dominican Republic. This overall pattern will persist
through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Southwesterly to westerly flow aloft support cloudiness and
possible isolated showers across the Grand Bahama Bank and the
northern and central Bahamas. To the east, middle to upper level
diffluence support scattered showers N of the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola to 21N. To the N of this region, a shear line extends
from 28N66W to 26N74W to Florida near 26N80W. In the NE basin, a
1013 mb low is centered near 29N34W. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some additional development, and the
system could become a subtropical cyclone during the next few days
while it moves slowly northeastward. There is a low chance of
cyclogenesis within the next 48 hours. Lastly, a surface trough
extends from 25N25W to the Cape Verde Islands supporting showers
there and northward from 15N-30N between 21W-33W. Otherwise,
surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 17:37

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from the African
coast near 08N13W to 09N35W to 08N51W to 06N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 24W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough extends over the Gulf basin this evening
from over northern Florida SW to over the SW waters near 21N93W.
Mid-level shortwave energy is noted over the north-central waters
in the vicinity of 29N91W progressing eastward and supporting a
surface trough extending from SE Louisiana near 29N89W to 22N91W.
Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 27N
between 85W-90W...and within 75 nm either side of the surface
trough axis S of 27N. Farther east...this area of convection
merges with shallow widely scattered showers occurring generally
N of a shear line analyzed across the Florida peninsula from near
Jupiter to near Sarasota and into the NE Gulf near 28N85W. The
shear line is expected to slowly dissipate through Monday night as
stronger NE winds weaken. Elsewhere moderate to fresh NE winds
prevail and are expected through Tuesday night into Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Middle to upper level divergence prevails over the NW Caribbean
and Yucatan peninsula this evening generating a broad area of
scattered to numerous showers and scattered strong tstms from
14N-22N between 76W-90W...including Cuba...Jamaica...Belize...and
portions of the Yucatan peninsula. South of this feature...a 1007
mb low and associated surface trough analyzed from 17N83W into the
low then along the Costa Rica and western Panama coast to 09N82W
is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms from 08N-14N
between 76W-86W. This entire area of the western Caribbean and
portions of Central America remain on the northwestern periphery
of an upper level ridge anchored over northern South America near
06N70W. Farther east...generally moderate to fresh trades persist
and are expected through Tuesday night. Isolated showers and tstms
are embedded within the trades N of 16N between 64W-76W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms continue across the island
this evening as the region remains within westerly flow aloft.
Although only marginally divergent aloft...low-level moisture
convergence is maximized across the region within E-SE trades.
This overall pattern will persist through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends across the SW North Atlc from 32N59W
W-SW to 28N70W where it becomes a shear line to the Florida
peninsula near Jupiter. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed
to the SE of the front from 24N62W to 30N57W. While widely
scattered showers are occurring generally within 150 nm N of the
shear line...low-level moisture convergence SW of the surface
trough and a favorable divergent environment aloft are generating
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 18N-26N between 50W-
77W. To the east...a 1013 mb low is centered near 30N34W with a
surface trough extending from the low to 26N32W to 22N34W. The
system is supported aloft by a broad middle to upper level low
centered near 30N35W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
are noted near the low center from 29N-36N between 26W-37W.
Additional scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
farther south from 12N-25N between 25W-40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 12:34
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 11/12/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move onshore the Pacific Northwest on Monday. As this occurs, the ridge over the Plains will flatten, giving way to mainly zonal flow across much of the country. Stronger deep layer westerlies over the Rockies will induce lee troughing and some dry downslope winds are possible over the central and southern High Plains. However, strongest surface winds will be offset from lower RH conditions. While some brief/spotty elevated fire weather conditions may occur over parts of eastern NM and eastern CO, the overall threat is expected to remain too marginal to highlight any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 12:34
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 11/12/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move onshore the Pacific Northwest on Monday. As this occurs, the ridge over the Plains will flatten, giving way to mainly zonal flow across much of the country. Stronger deep layer westerlies over the Rockies will induce lee troughing and some dry downslope winds are possible over the central and southern High Plains. However, strongest surface winds will be offset from lower RH conditions. While some brief/spotty elevated fire weather conditions may occur over parts of eastern NM and eastern CO, the overall threat is expected to remain too marginal to highlight any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Sun, 11/12/2017 - 11:49

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1249 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from west Africa
near 08N13W to 09N30W to 08N46W to 08N51W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
surface trough near 08N54W and continues to the coast of South
America near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N
between 24W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from Stuart Florida
near 27N80W to Sarasota Florida near 27N83W to the E Gulf of
Mexico near 27N85W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over
central and south Florida, and the Straits of Florida. A surface
trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 29N89W to 21N91W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 45 nm of the trough. A
surface trough is over the W Gulf from Corpus Christi Texas near
28N97W to 22N97W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. Scattered
showers are within 45 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, a
trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong subsidence is over most
of the Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours, for the surface front
to dissipate over the Gulf, and for the two surface troughs to
continue to produce scattered showers. Also expect the upper level
trough to move E to the E Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb low is centered off the coast of SE Nicaragua near 11N83W.
A surface trough extends from the NW Caribbean near 18N83W to the
low center to 09N82W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over most of the NW Caribbean from 15N-21N between
79W-89W. In addition, scattered showers are within 45 nm of the
remainder of the surface trough. Further E, a 1007 mb low is along
the coast of Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered showers are within 45
nm of the low. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is
over the NW Caribbean enhancing convection. Expect additional
convection over the central and western Caribbean over the next 48
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola mostly due to
upper level diffluence. Expect convection to persist for the next
48 hours. Convection will be heaviest in the afternoon and evening
hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-
threatening mud slides are also possible.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to 27N73W
to Stuart Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the front. A prefrontal trough is extends from 31N56W to
24N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the
trough. Scattered moderate convection is also N of Hispaniola
from 20N-22N between 68W-72W. A surface trough is over the
tropical Atlantic from 12N50W to 05N53W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is centered over the E
Atlantic near 30N34W. A surface trough extends S from the low to
23N34W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low and within
60 nm of the trough. This system could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week while it
moves slowly northeastward. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the front. A large
upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 30N35W with
a trough axis extending SW to 12N48W. Upper level diffluence is E
of this trough axis to the coast of W Africa. Expect the front in
24 hours to be dissipating.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

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