Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 18:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a high pressure system over the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over northern South America should continue to
support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia through Sun. The resultant with the gale force winds
are forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W
and continues to 01N19W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates the ITCZ begins and dips to S of the Equator at 23W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
S of the axis between 12W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm S of the axis between 20W-23W, and also N of the
axis within 30 nm of line from 02N24W to 03N28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The western extension of Atlantic across the area is maintaining
pretty tranquil weather conditions throughout the basin. In
addition, satellite water vapor imagery depicts abundant dry air
in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Surface
observations and scatterometer data indicate that the winds are
light and generally southeast or southerly across much of the
area. Observed waveheights are in the 3 to 5 ft range throughout,
and little change is expected through Sun. A weak surface trough
extends into the NE Gulf from the Florida panhandle along a
position from near 30N85W southwestward to near 27N87W. Only
isolated showers are near this trough. Areas of dense fog are
expected over portions of gulf mainly N of about 27N tonight into
Sat producing sharply reduced visibilities. Little change in the
present synoptic pattern is expected through Sun, however, winds
and seas are forecast to increase by early next week when high
pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Only patches of clouds and embedded quick-moving isolated showers
are seen across the Caribbean Sea today. The trade winds in the
area are fresh to strong, and they are even stronger near the
coast of Colombia as discussed above. These winds are occurring
due to the tight pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high over
the western Atlantic and the typical lower pressures found over
northern South America. No significant changes are expected to
occur on Saturday, but winds and seas will likely increase over
the eastern and central Caribbean on Sun and early next week when
the gradient tightens from stronger high pressure that builds to
the N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tranquil conditions and fairly light winds are occurring across
the western Atlantic supported by a surface ridge and dry and
stable air aloft. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low
and accompanying surface trough is producing scattered moderate
convection from 28N-32N between 41W- 45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong is noted over the deep tropics from 2N-6N between
43W-50W in association with a surface trough and diffluent flow
aloft. No significant weather is occurring over the eastern
Atlantic, but earlier scatterometer data indicated that the trade
wind flow is fresh to strong south of about 20N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 12:34
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Only minimal changes to the ongoing forecast were made to reflect latest model guidance. Areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected mainly across Kansas during the afternoon and early evening hours. The southern portions of the risk area (into northwestern Oklahoma) are a bit more conditional as areas of light to moderate precipitation may traverse the region late during the D1/Fri forecast period and may result in temporary wetting of fuels. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 02/16/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the High Plains Saturday morning will move eastward to the Great Lakes and OH Valley by Saturday evening. An upstream shortwave trough should move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies from Saturday evening through the end of the period. Surface high pressure centered over the eastern CONUS will develop eastward off the East Coast, while lee troughing develops over the High Plains. A separate surface trough/front associated with the shortwave trough over the Plains should move southward across KS into parts of northern OK by Saturday afternoon. ...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains... Strong/gusty northwesterly winds around 15-20 mph should develop Saturday afternoon across parts of KS into northern OK behind a surface trough/front. Although temperatures should not warm substantially due to some low-level cold air advection, an antecedent dry airmass and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will likely support RH values falling into the 15-25% range for a few hours through peak heating. Dry/dormant fuels remain in place across this region, and the forecast meteorological conditions support the introduction of an elevated area for parts of KS into northern OK. The lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass precludes a critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 12:34
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Only minimal changes to the ongoing forecast were made to reflect latest model guidance. Areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected mainly across Kansas during the afternoon and early evening hours. The southern portions of the risk area (into northwestern Oklahoma) are a bit more conditional as areas of light to moderate precipitation may traverse the region late during the D1/Fri forecast period and may result in temporary wetting of fuels. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 02/16/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the High Plains Saturday morning will move eastward to the Great Lakes and OH Valley by Saturday evening. An upstream shortwave trough should move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies from Saturday evening through the end of the period. Surface high pressure centered over the eastern CONUS will develop eastward off the East Coast, while lee troughing develops over the High Plains. A separate surface trough/front associated with the shortwave trough over the Plains should move southward across KS into parts of northern OK by Saturday afternoon. ...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains... Strong/gusty northwesterly winds around 15-20 mph should develop Saturday afternoon across parts of KS into northern OK behind a surface trough/front. Although temperatures should not warm substantially due to some low-level cold air advection, an antecedent dry airmass and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will likely support RH values falling into the 15-25% range for a few hours through peak heating. Dry/dormant fuels remain in place across this region, and the forecast meteorological conditions support the introduction of an elevated area for parts of KS into northern OK. The lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass precludes a critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 11:30

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a high pressure system over the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over northern South America should continue to
support winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia through the weekend. The sea heights in this region are
forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 06N10W and
continues to 02N18W, with the ITCZ extending southwestward from
there. The ITCZ dips below the equator around 24W. Scattered
moderate convection is located within 180 n mi of the boundaries
between 17W and 23W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Quiet weather conditions continue across the Gulf of Mexico today
supported by the western extension of a surface ridge and abundant
dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Surface
observations and scatterometer data indicate that the winds are
light and generally southeast or southerly across much of the
area. Sea heights are also low, except over the northwestern
waters where reports have been around 5 ft. A weak surface trough
is lingering over the Bay of Campeche, but this feature is only
producing a patch of clouds and isolated showers. Little change in
the pattern is expected to occur on Saturday, but winds and seas are
forecast to increase by early next week when high pressure
strengthens over the western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Only patches of clouds and embedded quick-moving isolated showers
are occurring across the Caribbean Sea today. The trade winds in
the area are fresh to strong, and they are even stronger near the
coast of Colombia as discussed above. These winds are occurring
due to the tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high over the
western Atlantic and the typical lower pressure region over
northern South America. No signiciant changes are expected to
occur on Saturday, but winds and seas will likely increase over
the eastern and central Caribbean on Sunday and early next week
when high pressure builds to the north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tranquil conditions and fairly light winds are occurring across
the western Atlantic supported by a surface ridge and a stable air
mass aloft. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-level low and
accompanying surface trough is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 28N-32N between 40W-46W. Similar activity is
occurring over the deep tropics from 2N-5N between 43W-50W in
association with a surface trough and diffluent flow aloft. No
significant weather is occurring over the eastern Atlantic, but
scatterometer data does indicate that the trade wind flow is fresh
to strong south of about 20N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 10:00
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The ongoing forecast is on track, with elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remaining likely throughout the morning and into the early afternoon across coastal ranges of southern California. See the previous discussion for more detail. ..Cook.. 02/16/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will become prominent across much of the central/eastern CONUS today as one shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes region to the Northeast and another shortwave trough develops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure over the northern Great Basin should weaken by this afternoon. A cold front will continue moving southeastward across the southern Plains and Southeast through this evening, with a large area of high pressure dominating the central/eastern CONUS in its wake. ...Portions of Southern CA... 07Z surface observations show isolated northeasterly winds occurring over mainly the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties in southern CA. These offshore winds around 15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph will likely become more widespread later this morning across the coastal ranges and adjacent foothills of southern CA. RH values will remain lowered in generally the 8-15% range through early this afternoon to support an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat where fuels are dry. The prospect for widespread critical conditions appears too low to include a critical delineation. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes later today with the weakening of the high over the northern Great Basin, the strong/gusty offshore winds should also relax by early evening. A gradual reduction in the elevated/locally critical fire weather threat is also expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 10:00
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The ongoing forecast is on track, with elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remaining likely throughout the morning and into the early afternoon across coastal ranges of southern California. See the previous discussion for more detail. ..Cook.. 02/16/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will become prominent across much of the central/eastern CONUS today as one shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes region to the Northeast and another shortwave trough develops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure over the northern Great Basin should weaken by this afternoon. A cold front will continue moving southeastward across the southern Plains and Southeast through this evening, with a large area of high pressure dominating the central/eastern CONUS in its wake. ...Portions of Southern CA... 07Z surface observations show isolated northeasterly winds occurring over mainly the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties in southern CA. These offshore winds around 15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph will likely become more widespread later this morning across the coastal ranges and adjacent foothills of southern CA. RH values will remain lowered in generally the 8-15% range through early this afternoon to support an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat where fuels are dry. The prospect for widespread critical conditions appears too low to include a critical delineation. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes later today with the weakening of the high over the northern Great Basin, the strong/gusty offshore winds should also relax by early evening. A gradual reduction in the elevated/locally critical fire weather threat is also expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 05:51

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a strong high over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower
pressure over northern South America should continue to support
minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through the
weekend. The sea heights associated in the gale region are
forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 04N07W and
continues to 00N20W. Scattered moderate convection is located
within 90 n mi south and 180 n mi north of the boundaries between
15W and 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin supporting fair weather.
An area of patchy fog/haze is located over the northwestern Gulf
waters mainly north of 27N and west of 92W. A weak trough is
located over the Bay of Campeche, but this feature is not
producing any significant weather.

Moderate east to southeast return flow is expected across most of
the Gulf waters through the weekend. A weak cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern Gulf on Saturday, bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with it. The front will then
retreat northwestward Sunday night and Monday. A thermal trough
is expected to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the
afternoon hours this weekend and drift westward across the eastern
Bay of Campeche during the evening and overnight periods.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Strong trade winds are expected across the southern Caribbean
through the weekend, with minimal gale-force conditions along the
northwestern coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds are forecast elsewhere, including the north central
passages. These strong conditions will spread eastward across the
eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic waters by Saturday
night, and continue through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal boundary over the central Atlantic Ocean continues
to weaken, and it is currently estimated to extend from a low
near 32N32W to 28N50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
near this feature from 28N to 31N between 40W and 46W, but this
activity is more likely associated with an upper-level low. A
surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored
by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N68W and a 1029 mb high north
of the area near 37N40W.

Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move off the coast of the southeast
United States on Sunday, and then dissipate across the western
Atlantic through Monday night. Light to gentle winds will prevail
north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N.
Locally strong winds will develop along the northern coast of
Hispaniola and in the northern portion of the Windward Passage,
especially during the evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA/JPC
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 01:37
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the High Plains Saturday morning will move eastward to the Great Lakes and OH Valley by Saturday evening. An upstream shortwave trough should move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies from Saturday evening through the end of the period. Surface high pressure centered over the eastern CONUS will develop eastward off the East Coast, while lee troughing develops over the High Plains. A separate surface trough/front associated with the shortwave trough over the Plains should move southward across KS into parts of northern OK by Saturday afternoon. ...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains... Strong/gusty northwesterly winds around 15-20 mph should develop Saturday afternoon across parts of KS into northern OK behind a surface trough/front. Although temperatures should not warm substantially due to some low-level cold air advection, an antecedent dry airmass and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will likely support RH values falling into the 15-25% range for a few hours through peak heating. Dry/dormant fuels remain in place across this region, and the forecast meteorological conditions support the introduction of an elevated area for parts of KS into northern OK. The lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass precludes a critical delineation. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 02/16/2018 - 01:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will become prominent across much of the central/eastern CONUS today as one shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes region to the Northeast and another shortwave trough develops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure over the northern Great Basin should weaken by this afternoon. A cold front will continue moving southeastward across the southern Plains and Southeast through this evening, with a large area of high pressure dominating the central/eastern CONUS in its wake. ...Portions of Southern CA... 07Z surface observations show isolated northeasterly winds occurring over mainly the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties in southern CA. These offshore winds around 15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph will likely become more widespread later this morning across the coastal ranges and adjacent foothills of southern CA. RH values will remain lowered in generally the 8-15% range through early this afternoon to support an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat where fuels are dry. The prospect for widespread critical conditions appears too low to include a critical delineation. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes later today with the weakening of the high over the northern Great Basin, the strong/gusty offshore winds should also relax by early evening. A gradual reduction in the elevated/locally critical fire weather threat is also expected. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 23:17

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1216 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower surface pressures in northern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia, roughly from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, through the
weekend. The sea heights associated with the gale-force wind
conditions are forecast to range from 10 feet to 13 feet. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 06N11W and
continues to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S41W.
Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm south of the boundaries
between 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin with fair weather. An
area of patchy for/haze has developed over the northwest Gulf
mainly north of 26N and west of 92W. A thermal trough is exiting
the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche with
isolated showers. This activity will dissipate towards the
morning hours.

Moderate east-to-southeast return flow is expected across most of
the Gulf waters through the weekend. A weak cold front is expected
to enter the northwest Gulf on Saturday with convection. The front
will then retreat northwestward on Sunday night into Monday. The
thermal trough in the western Yucatan Peninsula will continue
developing during the afternoon hours this weekend and drift
westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche overnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Strong-to near gale-force trade winds are expected across the
southern Caribbean through the weekend, with minimal gale-force
conditions along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh-to-
locally strong trade winds are forecast elsewhere, including the
north central passages. These strong conditions will spread
eastward into the east Caribbean and the tropical waters on
Saturday night, and continue through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal boundary continues weakening along 31N between
36W-50W with no significant convection. A surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 29N66W. A weak cold front will move off the
southeast United States on Sunday, and then dissipate across the
northwest waters through Monday night. Light-to-gentle winds will
prevail north of 25N, with moderate-to-fresh winds expected south
of 25N. Locally strong winds will develop along the northern
coast of Hispaniola and in the northern approach to the Windward
Passage each evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 17:50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 152349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower surface pressures in northern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia, roughly from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, through the
week. The sea heights associated with the gale-force wind
conditions are forecast to range from 11 feet to 17 feet. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N14W, to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W,
to 02S25W, and to 04S33W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers from 07N southward. Upper level SW wind
flow is to the SE of the line that passes through 32N09W 26N20W
17N50W 15N62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from Florida near 28N81W, to 26N89W in the
Gulf of Mexico, to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered-to-broken low level clouds,
from 25N southward from 90W westward. Fog/haze are possible also.

Moderate east-to-southeast return flow is expected across most of
the Gulf waters through Saturday. Locally dense fog across the
northern waters will develop tonight, and dissipate by late Friday
morning. A weak cold front will stall east-to-west across the
northern and northwestern waters on Saturday, and then retreat
northwestward on Sunday night into Monday. A thermal trough will
develop in the western Yucatan Peninsula during the afternoons,
drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours, and then dissipate in the southwest waters by
late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Strong-to near gale-force trade winds are expected across the
south central and southwest Caribbean Sea through the weekend,
with minimal gale-force conditions along the northwest coast of
Colombia. Fresh-to-locally strong trade winds are forecast
elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north
central passages. These strong conditions will spread eastward,
into the east Caribbean Sea and the tropical waters on Saturday
night, and continue through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 32N35W to 30N50W, to a 1025 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N67W. Scattered-to-broken low
level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the N of the line
that passes through 32N28W to 26N50W, to 26N80W.

An east-to-west oriented ridge along 29N will shift southward, to
be along 27N on Friday. The ridge will shift northward, to be along
29N, late in the upcoming weekend. A weak cold front will move
off the southeast United States on Sunday, and then dissipate
across the northwest waters through Monday night. Light-to-
gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with moderate-to-fresh
winds expected south of 25N, except locally strong along the
northern coast of Hispaniola and in the northern approach to the
Windward Passage each evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT/ERA

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 12:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will become prominent across much of the central/eastern CONUS on Day 2/Friday as one shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes region to the Northeast and another shortwave trough develops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure over the northern Great Basin should weaken by Friday afternoon, and a cold front will continue moving southeastward across the southern Plains and Southeast, with a large area of high pressure dominating the central/eastern CONUS in its wake. ...Portions of Southern CA... Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely be ongoing across portions of southern CA at the beginning of the period as a modestly enhanced surface pressure gradient remains across this region. Sustained northeasterly winds around 15-25 mph should combine with RH values of 8-15% through early Friday afternoon to support an elevated fire weather threat where fuels are dry. The prospect for widespread critical conditions appears too low to justify the introduction of a critical delineation at this time. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes Friday afternoon with the weakening of the high over the northern Great Basin, the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to relax by early Friday evening. A gradual reduction in the elevated/locally critical fire weather threat is also anticipated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 12:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will become prominent across much of the central/eastern CONUS on Day 2/Friday as one shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes region to the Northeast and another shortwave trough develops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure over the northern Great Basin should weaken by Friday afternoon, and a cold front will continue moving southeastward across the southern Plains and Southeast, with a large area of high pressure dominating the central/eastern CONUS in its wake. ...Portions of Southern CA... Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely be ongoing across portions of southern CA at the beginning of the period as a modestly enhanced surface pressure gradient remains across this region. Sustained northeasterly winds around 15-25 mph should combine with RH values of 8-15% through early Friday afternoon to support an elevated fire weather threat where fuels are dry. The prospect for widespread critical conditions appears too low to justify the introduction of a critical delineation at this time. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes Friday afternoon with the weakening of the high over the northern Great Basin, the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to relax by early Friday evening. A gradual reduction in the elevated/locally critical fire weather threat is also anticipated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 11:29

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern South America,
will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast
of Colombia, roughly from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, through
the week. The sea heights associated with the gale-force wind
conditions are forecast to range from 11 feet to 17 feet. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N14W, to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W,
to 02S25W, and to 04S33W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers from 07N southward. Upper level SW wind
flow is to the SE of the line that passes through 32N09W 26N20W
17N50W 15N62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from Florida near 28N81W, to 26N89W in the
Gulf of Mexico, to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered-to-broken low level clouds,
from 25N southward from 90W westward. Mist/fog and haze are
possible also.

Moderate east-to-southeast return flow is expected across most of
the Gulf waters through Saturday. Locally dense fog across the
northern waters will develop tonight, and dissipate by late Friday
morning. A weak cold front will stall east-to-west across the
northern and northwestern waters on Saturday, and then retreat
northwestward on Sunday night into Monday. A thermal trough will
develop in the western Yucatan Peninsula during the afternoons,
drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours, and then dissipate in the southwest waters by
late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.20 in Curacao, 0.03 in St. Thomas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe, in Kingston in
Jamaica, and in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Strong-to near gale-force trade winds are expected across the
south central and southwest Caribbean Sea through the weekend,
with minimal gale-force conditions along the northwest coast of
Colombia. Fresh-to-locally strong trade winds are forecast
elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north
central passages. These strong conditions will spread eastward,
into the east Caribbean Sea and the tropical waters on Saturday
night, and continue through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 32N35W to 30N50W, to a 1025 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N67W. Scattered-to-broken low
level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the N of the line
that passes through 32N28W to 26N50W, to 26N80W.

An upper level trough extends from 32N14W, to 23N27W, becoming a
shear axis to 16N47W, 16N56W, to 16N77W in the Caribbean Sea, to
the central part of the coast of Nicaragua.

An east-to-west oriented ridge along 29N will shift southward, to
be along 27N on Friday. The ridge will shift northward, to be along
29N, late in the upcoming weekend. A weak cold front will move
off the southeast United States on Sunday, and then dissipate
across the northwest waters through Monday night. Light-to-
gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with moderate-to-fresh
winds expected south of 25N, except locally strong along the
northern coast of Hispaniola and in the northern approach to the
Windward Passage each evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 10:23
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Central/Southern Plains... The elevated area has been adjusted further south and east across the Plains and across parts of southeast CO. This is based on latest hi-res guidance. RH values will be the main limiting factor today with values ranging from the upper teens to 30 percent. Southwest winds will be breezy however, with sustained speeds of 15-25 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph. The strongest winds will be across the High Plains from northeast NM and southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandle regions. While RH values will be marginal, fuels remain dry and dormant and fires could spread rapidly if ignitions occur given forecast wind speeds. ...Southern CA... No changes needed. See discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/ ...Synopsis... Positively tilted upper troughing over the western CONUS is forecast to develop eastward across the Plains today. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level winds will persist across roughly the eastern two-thirds of the country as an upper ridge becomes suppressed over the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, an area of low pressure is located over western KS early this morning, with a lee trough extending southward from this low across the southern High Plains. This surface low should develop southeastward today in tandem with a cold front, reaching the vicinity of the eastern TX/OK Panhandles by this evening. An area of high pressure should develop over the northern Great Basin with large-scale subsidence occurring behind the upper trough. ...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains... Elevated conditions should occur across parts of the central/southern Plains in advance of the cold front and surface low mentioned above. Sustained west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely, although RH values may struggle to fall much below 20-25% due to widespread mid/upper-level cloudiness limiting surface heating. Still, favorable low-level trajectories suggest at least some downslope warming/drying will occur this afternoon, and the potential for RH values falling as low as 18-25% is sufficient to maintain an elevated delineation extending from parts of northeastern NM and far southeastern CO into the TX/OK Panhandles, southern KS, and northern/western OK. The lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass precludes a critical area. ...Portions of Southern CA... The surface pressure gradient is forecast to modestly strengthen across portions of southern CA beginning later this evening and continuing through early Friday morning. This should promote an increase in northeasterly offshore winds for parts of the coastal ranges and adjacent foothills. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear likely, with some higher gusts up to 40 mph possible. Downslope warming/drying processes should act to lower RH values into the 10-20% range overnight. MRMS gauge-corrected precipitation data indicate generally light precipitation occurred across portions of southern CA yesterday as an upper low moved northeastward and became absorbed into large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS. Regardless, this light precipitation did not substantially moisten fine fuels per latest guidance. These forecast meteorological conditions support the continuation of an elevated area with some southeastward expansion across parts of southern CA since fuels will remain receptive to large fire starts/spread. Locally critical conditions could briefly occur across the higher terrain and favored passes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 10:23
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Central/Southern Plains... The elevated area has been adjusted further south and east across the Plains and across parts of southeast CO. This is based on latest hi-res guidance. RH values will be the main limiting factor today with values ranging from the upper teens to 30 percent. Southwest winds will be breezy however, with sustained speeds of 15-25 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph. The strongest winds will be across the High Plains from northeast NM and southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandle regions. While RH values will be marginal, fuels remain dry and dormant and fires could spread rapidly if ignitions occur given forecast wind speeds. ...Southern CA... No changes needed. See discussion below for details. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/ ...Synopsis... Positively tilted upper troughing over the western CONUS is forecast to develop eastward across the Plains today. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level winds will persist across roughly the eastern two-thirds of the country as an upper ridge becomes suppressed over the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, an area of low pressure is located over western KS early this morning, with a lee trough extending southward from this low across the southern High Plains. This surface low should develop southeastward today in tandem with a cold front, reaching the vicinity of the eastern TX/OK Panhandles by this evening. An area of high pressure should develop over the northern Great Basin with large-scale subsidence occurring behind the upper trough. ...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains... Elevated conditions should occur across parts of the central/southern Plains in advance of the cold front and surface low mentioned above. Sustained west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely, although RH values may struggle to fall much below 20-25% due to widespread mid/upper-level cloudiness limiting surface heating. Still, favorable low-level trajectories suggest at least some downslope warming/drying will occur this afternoon, and the potential for RH values falling as low as 18-25% is sufficient to maintain an elevated delineation extending from parts of northeastern NM and far southeastern CO into the TX/OK Panhandles, southern KS, and northern/western OK. The lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass precludes a critical area. ...Portions of Southern CA... The surface pressure gradient is forecast to modestly strengthen across portions of southern CA beginning later this evening and continuing through early Friday morning. This should promote an increase in northeasterly offshore winds for parts of the coastal ranges and adjacent foothills. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear likely, with some higher gusts up to 40 mph possible. Downslope warming/drying processes should act to lower RH values into the 10-20% range overnight. MRMS gauge-corrected precipitation data indicate generally light precipitation occurred across portions of southern CA yesterday as an upper low moved northeastward and became absorbed into large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS. Regardless, this light precipitation did not substantially moisten fine fuels per latest guidance. These forecast meteorological conditions support the continuation of an elevated area with some southeastward expansion across parts of southern CA since fuels will remain receptive to large fire starts/spread. Locally critical conditions could briefly occur across the higher terrain and favored passes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 06:03

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern South America,
will continue to support gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia through the week. The sea heights associated with the
gale-force wind conditions are forecast to range from 12 feet to
17 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to the Equator along 18W. The ITCZ continues from
the Equator along 18W, to 03S30W 03S34W, and 04S39W along the
coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers from 07N southward. Upper level SW wind flow
is to the SE of the line that passes through 32N09W 26N20W 17N50W
15N62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1027 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N73W, to a 1028 mb high pressure
center that is in NE Florida near 30N82W, to 26N94W in the Gulf of
Mexico, to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered-to-broken low level clouds,
from 23N southward from 90W westward.

E-to-SE winds, associated with a ridge that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean into the central Gulf of Mexico, will prevail
across the basin through Saturday. A weak cold front will stall
along the Texas coast on Saturday night and Sunday, and then
retreat northward on Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.29 in Curacao, and 0.02 in
Guadeloupe.

Strong trade winds will continue today E of 80W, including in the
Atlantic Ocean passages. Winds to minimal gale-force will persist
near the coast of Colombia through Monday night. The area of
winds and seas in the eastern Caribbean Sea and the tropical N
Atlantic Ocean will diminsh gradually through Saturday, then
increase again on Sunday and on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 32N28W to 30N50W to 32N64W, to a 1025
mb low pressure center that is near 31N69W. Scattered-to-broken
low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the N of the
line that passes through 32N34W to 23N59W, to 27N80W.

An upper level trough extends from 32N14W, to 23N27W, becoming a
shear axis to 16N47W, 16N56W, to 16N77W in the Caribbean Sea, to
the central part of the coast of Nicaragua.

A persistent ridge along 29N will remain in place through Sunday
night. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N. A weak cold front
will move off the SE U.S. coast on Sunday, and then dissipate
through Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 01:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will become prominent across much of the central/eastern CONUS on Day 2/Friday as one shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes region to the Northeast and another shortwave trough develops southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure over the northern Great Basin should weaken by Friday afternoon, and a cold front will continue moving southeastward across the southern Plains and Southeast, with a large area of high pressure dominating the central/eastern CONUS in its wake. ...Portions of Southern CA... Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely be ongoing across portions of southern CA at the beginning of the period as a modestly enhanced surface pressure gradient remains across this region. Sustained northeasterly winds around 15-25 mph should combine with RH values of 8-15% through early Friday afternoon to support an elevated fire weather threat where fuels are dry. The prospect for widespread critical conditions appears too low to justify the introduction of a critical delineation at this time. As the surface pressure gradient relaxes Friday afternoon with the weakening of the high over the northern Great Basin, the strong/gusty offshore winds are likewise expected to relax by early Friday evening. A gradual reduction in the elevated/locally critical fire weather threat is also anticipated. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/15/2018 - 01:55
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Positively tilted upper troughing over the western CONUS is forecast to develop eastward across the Plains today. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level winds will persist across roughly the eastern two-thirds of the country as an upper ridge becomes suppressed over the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, an area of low pressure is located over western KS early this morning, with a lee trough extending southward from this low across the southern High Plains. This surface low should develop southeastward today in tandem with a cold front, reaching the vicinity of the eastern TX/OK Panhandles by this evening. An area of high pressure should develop over the northern Great Basin with large-scale subsidence occurring behind the upper trough. ...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains... Elevated conditions should occur across parts of the central/southern Plains in advance of the cold front and surface low mentioned above. Sustained west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely, although RH values may struggle to fall much below 20-25% due to widespread mid/upper-level cloudiness limiting surface heating. Still, favorable low-level trajectories suggest at least some downslope warming/drying will occur this afternoon, and the potential for RH values falling as low as 18-25% is sufficient to maintain an elevated delineation extending from parts of northeastern NM and far southeastern CO into the TX/OK Panhandles, southern KS, and northern/western OK. The lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass precludes a critical area. ...Portions of Southern CA... The surface pressure gradient is forecast to modestly strengthen across portions of southern CA beginning later this evening and continuing through early Friday morning. This should promote an increase in northeasterly offshore winds for parts of the coastal ranges and adjacent foothills. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear likely, with some higher gusts up to 40 mph possible. Downslope warming/drying processes should act to lower RH values into the 10-20% range overnight. MRMS gauge-corrected precipitation data indicate generally light precipitation occurred across portions of southern CA yesterday as an upper low moved northeastward and became absorbed into large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS. Regardless, this light precipitation did not substantially moisten fine fuels per latest guidance. These forecast meteorological conditions support the continuation of an elevated area with some southeastward expansion across parts of southern CA since fuels will remain receptive to large fire starts/spread. Locally critical conditions could briefly occur across the higher terrain and favored passes. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/14/2018 - 23:18

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
and lower surface pressures in northern South America. This
scenario is supporting gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia through the week. The sea heights associated with these
wind conditions are forecast to range from 12 feet to 15 feet,
subsiding some later in the week. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and extends to
00N22W. The ITCZ continues from 00N22W to 04N37W. Scattered
showers are noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries
between 15W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb
high centered over southwest Georgia. A surface trough extends
across the Bay of Campeche from 24N96W to 20N95W. Low level
clouds and areas of fog/haze are noted over the northwest Gulf
waters north of 26N and west of 90W. Expect for the surface
ridging to prevail across the basin through the rest of the week
and the beginning of the weekend. A weak cold front will stall in the
northern Gulf on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers
are possible in areas of broken-to-overcast low level clouds
across the entire area. Strong trade winds will continue to the
east of 80W, including in the Atlantic Ocean passages, through
Thursday morning. Winds to minimal gale-force will persist near
the coast of Colombia through Sunday night. Winds and seas outside
the central Caribbean will subside gradually from Thursday
through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface low centered north of our area, extends a weak
stationary front across the west Atlantic waters along 80W. No
significant convection is observed in this area at this time. A
1028 mb surface high is centered near 29N75W. A frontal boundary
extends along 30N-31N analyzed as a cold front through 58W, then
becomes stationary to a 1026 mb low near 32N69W. Scattered showers
are possible near these boundaries. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin.

Expect for the surface ridge to remain in place through the
weekend. A stationary front in the far northwest waters will
dissipate during the early morning hours. Light to gentle winds
will prevail north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected
south of 25N through Sunday. A weak cold front will move off the
southeast U.S. coast on Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

Categories: Weather

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