Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 11/16/2017 - 01:42
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will shift east and deepen over the Plains by Saturday morning. Stronger height falls will result in intensifying lee low over eastern CO. The combination of stronger deep layer westerlies and a tighter surface pressure gradient, in conjunction with warmer temperatures and lower RH conditions, will lead to more widespread fire weather concerns across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Temperatures will be warmer on Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Forecast soundings also show a more deeply mixed boundary layer than on Thursday. This will allow for downward transport of stronger midlevel westerlies and, in conjunction with downslope aided drying, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will be possible. West to southwest surface wind speeds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are possible. The strongest winds are expected across NM into southeast CO. RH values will range from 15-20 percent across much of NM into the OK/TX Panhandles with slightly higher values across southeast CO and southwest KS. Some locally critical conditions are possible across parts of northeast NM in the vicinity of I-40. Questionable fuel conditions and spotty nature of critical potential will preclude an upgrade at this time. ..Leitman.. 11/16/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 11/16/2017 - 01:41
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Progressive upper level flow will bring a trough east across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies today. As a result, enhanced deep layer flow will overspread much of the western U.S. and Rockies. Height falls will induce surface lee low development across the northern High Plains with a trough extending south through the southern High Plains. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of northeast NM where breezy downslope winds and low RH conditions are possible. ...Portions of northeast New Mexico... Downslope westerly winds will aid in warming and drying in the vicinity of the central mountains and adjacent plains across northeast NM. Boundary layer mixing is unimpressive in forecast sounding data with many locations even showing an inversion aloft. This will limit strongest midlevel wind speeds from mixing to the surface. However, west/southwest surface winds will still be sufficient, when combined with low RH values to result in some areas of elevated fire weather potential. Wind speeds around 15mph with some higher gusts are expected as RH values fall into the 15-20 percent range. Stronger wind speeds will be possible along the higher terrain of the central mountains, but RH values may be a bit higher. ..Leitman.. 11/16/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 23:57

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A complex and elongated area of low pressure that is in the
western Atlantic Ocean will organize into an extratropical storm
system as it moves northeastward, into the central Atlantic Ocean,
during the next 24 hours. The main low pressure center of 1006 mb
is near 31N57W. A frontal trough extends from the 1006 mb low
pressure center, to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is
near 26N63W, and the trough continues to the SE Bahamas near
21N74W. A surface trough also is along 24N61W 21N65W. Upper level
SW wind flow is moving across the area of the frontal trough.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 180 nm on either side of the line, from 19N67W off the NW
coast of Puerto Rico to 26N60W, beyond 32N55W. An upper level
ridge extends from N central coastal Puerto Rico to 24N53W, beyond
32N45W. The current forecast consists of: S-to-SW Gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, N OF 29N E
of the frontal trough to 52W. The gale-force winds will propagate
eastward ahead of the front through Thursday afternoon. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 08N26W to 05N40W, to the
coastal waters of French Guiana near 05N52W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 10N from 40W
eastward.

An upper level trough extends from a 32N24W cyclonic circulation
center to 24N25W 18N32W 13N42W and 05N50W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 12N between 30W
and 36W. Isolated moderate rainshowers from 03N to 15N between
40W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level NW wind flow, dry air, and subsidence span the entire
area.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb Georgia high pressure
center, into the central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along
23N95W 22N92W 19N91W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Rainshowers are possible from 20N to 24N between 88W and 94W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure center that
is near 18N76W, off the eastern coast of Jamaica, to 12N80W. The
monsoon trough continues from 12N80W, across Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong between 64W and 83W. scattered strong
in NW Venezuela, including Lake Maracaibo.

An upper level ridge extends from NW coastal Venezuela beyond the
NE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans nearly the entire Caribbean Sea. An upper level
trough is moving through the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

Numerous rainshowers will persist across Hispaniola during the
next few days. Deep moisture is going to be pulled NE across the
area due to an upper level trough that is to the west of the
island. The precipitation amounts will be comparatively the
greatest in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum
heating. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are
also possible during this time.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS model for 500 mb shows
that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48
hours. Hispaniola will be on the eastern side of a trough. The
GFS model for 700 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the
area during day one. The trough that is just to the west of
Hispaniola during day one will move across Hispaniola during day
two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through Bermuda,
to 28N71W, across Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
to the Gulf of Honduras. The trough is surrounded by comparatively
drier air in subsidence.

A surface trough passes through 32N22W to 29N23W and 27N26W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N northward between 20W
and 26W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center is
near 29N40W, to 21N49W, to 16N60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 17:51

000
AXNT20 KNHC 152351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A complex and elongated area of low pressure over the western
Atlantic will organize into an extratropical storm system as it
moves northeast to the central Atlantic over the next 24 hours.
The main low of 1006 mb is centered near 29N60W, with a stationary
front extending SW to a trailing low center of 1007 mb centered
near 25N68W. A surface trough extends SW of the southern low to
eastern Cuba. Numerous showers and embedded scattered
thunderstorms are within 500 nm east of the lows and fronts. The
stationary front will transition to a cold front between the
northern main low and the southern low this evening. Gale force
winds will develop over our area of discussion this evening N of
29N and east of the cold front and main low. These gale force
winds will propagate east ahead of the front over the discussion
waters through Thursday afternoon. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N22W to 08N35W to 09N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N to 11N between 30W and 38W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 05N to 10N between 17W and 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from the southeastern United States
to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico supporting moderate to fresh
northeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate
winds over the western Gulf. A surface trough extends from 24N97W
to 20N92W supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from
21N to 24N between 89W and 94W. Very little change is expected
over the next 48 hours. A strong cold front will cross the Gulf
beginning Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure of 1007 mb is centered over the
central Caribbean near 16N76W, with a surface trough extending
from the low SW to near 10N81W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 10N to 18N between 69W and 84W. Fresh to strong SW winds are
within 120 nm E of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds
cover the Caribbean west of this feature. Mainly moderate SE winds
are elsewhere E of this feature. Over the next 24 hours convection
will continue over the central Caribbean as the low slowly moves
NE toward Hispaniola.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected to persist across the island the next few days as deep
moisture is pulled NE over the region due to an upper trough to
the W. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are
possible during this time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the special features section for details
regarding the complex pair of low pressures over the western
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds cover the W Atlc to the west
of these features. A 1020 mb high is centered near 29N42W. Farther
east, a surface trough extends into our area of discussion near
31N26W to 27N30W. Isolated moderate convection is N of 28N
between 21W and 24W. Over the next 24 hours the special feature
complex system will move NE with ongoing convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 12:52
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of east-central/northeastern New Mexico Thursday afternoon as strengthening westerly surface flow combines with near-critical (15-25%) RH values. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/15/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ ...Synopsis... Stronger deep-layer westerlies will overspread much of the western half of the country on Thursday as a trough develops south/southeast over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As height falls ensue, a lee cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains with a weak lee trough extending southward through the central and southern High Plains. Breezy downslope winds are expected across southeast WY, but RH values will remain too high and limit fire weather concerns across this area. Further south, some elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of the central mountains of NM into the adjacent High Plains. RH values will range from around 15-25 percent with sustained winds around 10-15 mph with occasionally higher gusts. In combination with areas of dry fuels, an elevated fire weather threat may materialize for a few hours Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 12:52
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely in portions of east-central/northeastern New Mexico Thursday afternoon as strengthening westerly surface flow combines with near-critical (15-25%) RH values. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/15/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ ...Synopsis... Stronger deep-layer westerlies will overspread much of the western half of the country on Thursday as a trough develops south/southeast over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As height falls ensue, a lee cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains with a weak lee trough extending southward through the central and southern High Plains. Breezy downslope winds are expected across southeast WY, but RH values will remain too high and limit fire weather concerns across this area. Further south, some elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of the central mountains of NM into the adjacent High Plains. RH values will range from around 15-25 percent with sustained winds around 10-15 mph with occasionally higher gusts. In combination with areas of dry fuels, an elevated fire weather threat may materialize for a few hours Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 11:46

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A broad area of lower pressure is noted across the SW North Atlc
region anchored by a pair of 1008 mb lows analyzed along a
stationary front. The dominant 1008 mb low is centered near 28N63W
with the front extending NE to 32N58W...and SW to the other 1008
mb low near 25N69W. To the SW...a surface trough extends SW to
eastern Cuba near 20N76W and into low pressure across the western
Caribbean Sea. The area of low pressure is supported aloft by a
middle to upper level trough extending from 34N72W to a broad
base over the Florida Straits near 23N82W. Scattered showers and
tstms continue across a large area surrounding the stationary
front from 20N-32N between 52W-74W. As the northeastern most low
pressure area deepens during the next 12 to 24 hours...near gale
to gale force S to SW winds are forecast to increase by this
evening generally N of 28N E of the front to 52W. This wind field
is expected to persist through late Thursday night and decrease
into strong to near gale conditions by Friday morning. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to 09N30W to 06N45W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 01N-06N between the Prime Meridian and
07W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between
14W-38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between
43W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon as an
upper level trough lies over the SW North Atlc and Florida
peninsula to a base over the Yucatan Channel region. Mostly stable
conditions are occurring at the surface as a ridge axis extends
from the Mid-Atlc coast across the SE CONUS to the SW Gulf and
east-central Mexico near 22N99W. Skies are mostly clear with the
exception of a few possible isolated showers within 120 nm N of a
surface trough analyzed from 19N92W to 24N97W. Otherwise...
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are forecast through Friday.
The next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coasts by late Saturday into Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad area of lower pressure across the basin continues to be
focused on a 1007 mb low centered S of Jamaica near 16N78W. A
surface trough extends S-SW from the low to near 10N81W and
supports scattered showers and strong tstms from 07N-16N between
73W-87W...including portions of southern Nicaragua...Costa
Rica...and Panama. Another area of similar convection is occurring
across the central Caribbean and Hispaniola near between 68W-74W.
Otherwise...gentle to moderate N-NE winds are noted across the NW
Caribbean waters to the NW of the low...while trade wind flow E of
the low will continue to be disrupted as outside of convection...
gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through the
upcoming weekend. The low is expected to slowly drift eastward and
then remain nearly stationary S-SW of Hispaniola early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered to numerous showers and scattered strong tstms are
expected to persist across the island the next few days as deep
moisture advects NE over the region due to an upper trough to the
NW over the SW North Atlc...Cuba...and NW Caribbean Sea. Convection
will likely be heaviest in the afternoon and evening hours during
maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud
slides are also possible during this time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Aside from the special features section above highlighting the
broad area of low pressure analyzed across much of the SW North
Atlc...northwestern portions are under the influence of a cold
front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N63W SW to 29N70W
becoming stationary to the NW Bahamas near 27N77W. Isolated
showers are within 75 nm either side of the front while the
stronger convection to the E remains associated with the Special
Feature. Farther east...the central Atlc is under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 29N43W.
Finally...while mostly tranquil conditions are noted across the
eastern Atlc...weakening surface troughing extending from a 1006
mb low centered in the vicinity of the Azores near 39N26W is
supporting possible isolated showers N of 28N between 20W-32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 09:34
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 11/15/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east from the Upper Midwest to the lower Great Lakes region while a ridge briefly builds over the Plains today and tonight. At the surface, low pressure centered near northern WI will track east toward eastern Ontario and a trailing cold front will shift south/southeast across the MS/OH Valley and southern Plains regions. High pressure will build over the Plains behind the cold front and a drier airmass will filter into the region. However, a lack of stronger surface winds and only marginally low RH values will preclude a fire weather risk today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 09:34
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected today. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 11/15/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east from the Upper Midwest to the lower Great Lakes region while a ridge briefly builds over the Plains today and tonight. At the surface, low pressure centered near northern WI will track east toward eastern Ontario and a trailing cold front will shift south/southeast across the MS/OH Valley and southern Plains regions. High pressure will build over the Plains behind the cold front and a drier airmass will filter into the region. However, a lack of stronger surface winds and only marginally low RH values will preclude a fire weather risk today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 05:40

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151140
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 31N58W 28N61W 25N68W,
across the southeasternmost Bahamas, to SE Cuba. The 24-hour
forecast, from 15/0600 UTC, consists of the following: a surface
trough from 21N74W to 27N61.5W, to a 1000 mb low pressure center
that is near 32N55.5W. Expect S to SW gale-force winds and sea
heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet over forecast waters to
the N of 28N between 51W and the surface trough. Precipitation:
scattered strong from 21N to 24N between 65W and 68W. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 23N to 27N between 56W
and 60W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between
55W and 77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 08N26W 05N43W, to
05N46W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong within 180 nm on either side of line from 03N
along the Prime Meridian, to 05N16W, 07N33W, 09N50W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N25W to 24N30W to 15N43W,
to 06N48W and 01N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 10N to 13N between 45W and 53W. rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N between Africa and 60W,
and from 20N to 25N between 20W and 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level NW wind flow, dry air, and subsidence span the entire
area. An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to the NW Bahamas, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the W
central Gulf of Mexico, to the western sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 17N74W to 16N83W, into the Gulf of
Honduras and southern Belize. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 10N to 20N between 70W and 80W, and covering the
southern half of Nicaragua into the northernmost sections of Costa
Rica. isolated moderate covers the rest of the area that is from
70W westward, except N of 19N W of 80W. scattered to numerous
strong is in NW Venezuela, on top of Lake Maracaibo.

An upper level ridge extends from the coast of Colombia that is
near 12N73W, across Hispaniola, beyond 32N52W. Broad upper level
anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly the entire Caribbean Sea. An
upper level trough is moving through the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will persist across
Hispaniola during the next few days. Deep moisture is going to be
pulled NE across the area due to an upper level trough to the
west. The precipitation amounts will be comparatively the greatest
in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating.
Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are also
possible during this time.

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows that
SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours.
Hispaniola will be on the eastern side of a trough.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through Bermuda, to 30N74W 27N79W and 26N80W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong rainshowers from 27N to 32N between 70W and 76W.

A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 36N28W, about 35 nm to the
WSW of Ponta Delgada in the Azores. A surface trough extends from
a 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 36N28W, to 32N25W to
26N30W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 19N
northward between 30W and 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 00:56
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Stronger deep-layer westerlies will overspread much of the western half of the country on Thursday as a trough develops south/southeast over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As height falls ensue, a lee cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains with a weak lee trough extending southward through the central and southern High Plains. Breezy downslope winds are expected across southeast WY, but RH values will remain too high and limit fire weather concerns across this area. Further south, some elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of the central mountains of NM into the adjacent High Plains. RH values will range from around 15-25 percent with sustained winds around 10-15 mph with occasionally higher gusts. In combination with areas of dry fuels, an elevated fire weather threat may materialize for a few hours Thursday afternoon. ..Leitman.. 11/15/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 00:55
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east from the Upper Midwest to the lower Great Lakes region while a ridge briefly builds over the Plains today and tonight. At the surface, low pressure centered near northern WI will track east toward eastern Ontario and a trailing cold front will shift south/southeast across the MS/OH Valley and southern Plains regions. High pressure will build over the Plains behind the cold front and a drier airmass will filter into the region. However, a lack of stronger surface winds and only marginally low RH values will preclude a fire weather risk today. ..Leitman.. 11/15/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 11/15/2017 - 00:02

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 36N28W, about 120 nm to the
SW of the Azores. A surface trough extends from the low center to
32N27W to 26N32W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
19N between 30W and 60W. scattered moderate to strong from 34N to
38N between 22W and 24W. widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 30N to 34N between 23W and 30W. This system has a
medium chance to become a subtropical cyclone during the next
couple of days, before upper-level winds become unfavorable.
This low center is expected to produce winds to near gale-force
during the next day or two while it moves slowly northeastward.
Please read the High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under
WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at http://www.meteofrance.
com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin, for more details.

An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 30N60W 27N63W 25N68W
22N71W 21N75W, off the SE coast of Cuba. The 30-hour forecast,
from 15/0000 UTC, consists of the following: TROUGH FROM LOW PRES
N OF AREA TO 31N57W TO LOW PRES NEAR 26N64W 1008 MB TO 22N71W.
Expect gale-force SW winds, and sea heights that range from 10
feet to 13 feet, N OF 28N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. Precipitation:
scattered strong from 22N to 24N between 68W and 70W. isolated
moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 60W and 76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 08N27W 05N43W, to the
coast of Suriname near 05N53W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 05N to 08N between 26W and 34W. widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 04N to 07N between 15W
and 21W, and from 06N to 10N between 47W and 50W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N28W to 25N31W to 20N36W to
12N48W to 06N50W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 10N
to 20N between Africa and 60W, and from 20N to 24N between 22W and
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level NW wind flow, dry air, and subsidence span the entire
area. An upper level trough passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to Florida near Lake Okeechobee, across NW Cuba, into the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea near 19N84W.

A cold front passes through 32N65W to 30N72W and 29N74W. The cold
front is dissipating from 29N74W, across the NW Bahamas, to
26N79W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the NW of the
line that starts from the coast of Florida near 25N80W, to 28N74W,
beyond 32N67W.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend into the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to 22N97W in the SW corner of the
area, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The wind forecast for the next 24 hours: winds in the eastern
Gulf will increase to fresh to strong as high pressure builds
southward toward the SE United States.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure center that
is near 13N79W, to 15N80W 17N80W and 20N78W near SE Cuba. The
monsoon trough extends from the 1007 mb low pressure center,
beyond SE Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 16N to 20N
between the Mona Passage and 80W. isolated moderate covers the
rest of the area that is from 70W westward. numerous strong is in
NW Venezuela, near Lake Maracaibo, from 08N to 11N between 70W
and 73W.

An upper level ridge extends from the coast of Colombia that is
near 12N73W, across Hispaniola, beyond 32N52W. Broad upper level
anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly the entire Caribbean Sea. An
upper level trough is moving through the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will persist across
Hispaniola during the next few days. Deep moisture is going to be
pulled NE across the area due to an upper level trough to the
west. The precipitation amounts will be comparatively the greatest
in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating.
Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are also
possible during this time.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS model for 500 mb and
for 700 mb shows that Hispaniola will be on the eastern side of a
trough. Expect SW wind flow during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N65W to 30N72W and 29N74W. The cold
front is dissipating from 29N74W, across the NW Bahamas, to
26N79W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the NW of the
line that starts from the coast of Florida near 25N80W, to 28N74W,
beyond 32N67W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 17:35

000
AXNT20 KNHC 142335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 35N29W, about 200 nm to the
SSW of the Azores. A surface trough extends S from the low center
to 30N28W to 25N34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300
nm east of the low, and within 180 nm east of the trough axis N
of 30N. This system has a medium chance to become a subtropical
cyclone during the next couple of days before upper- level winds
become unfavorable. Regardless of development, this low is
expected to produce winds to near gale force during the next day
or two while it moves slowly northeastward. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N21W to 04N30W to the coast of South America near 04N51W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 12W and
33W, and from 06N to 12N between 45W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Dry air and subsidence covers much of the Gulf basin this evening
as a surface ridge axis extends from high pressure centered over
the Ohio Valley to the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds cover the basin, except moderate to fresh over the SE Gulf.
Over the next 24 hours winds over the eastern Gulf will increase
to fresh to strong as the area of high pressure builds southward
toward the SE United States.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of surface troughs extend over the NW Caribbean from
western Cuba near 21N77W to 18N81W, and from 17N83W to 16N88W. The
combination of these surface troughs and an upper trough over the
region supports numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
within 120 nm SE of the surface troughs. A 1007 mb low is centered
over the SW Caribbean near 11N77W with a surface trough extending
from the low to near 15N80W. Scattered moderate convection covers
much of the SW Caribbean S of 17N between 72W and 82W. Fresh NE
winds are occurring over the NW Caribbean to the north of the
surface troughs. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are S of these
troughs and west of about 70W. Moderate easterly trades are E of
70W. Over the next 24 hours the troughs will merge with the low as
the low drifts slowly NNE. Convection will continue over the SW
Caribbean in the vicinity of the low.

...HISPANIOLA...

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will persist over
the area the next couple of days as deep moisture is pulled NE
across the area due to an upper trough to the west. Convection
will be heaviest in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum
heating. Localized flooding and life- threatening mud slides are
also possible during this time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slowly moving cold front extends from 31N72W to 27N80W. Fresh to
strong NE winds are N of the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 90 nm SE of the front. A prefrontal
trough extends from 30N67W to 23N75W. This trough is interacting
with an upper trough to the west to produce widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 450 nm E of the surface trough
axis. A 1020 mb high is centered near 30N48W. A special feature
low is north of our eastern portion of the area of discussion.
Please refer to the special features section for more details. A
surface trough extends from 24N28W to 16N30W. This trough is void
of convection. Over the next 24 hours a pair of low pressure
centers will develop along the western Atlantic surface trough,
with increasing winds and seas spreading NE with the lows.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 13:27
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected Wednesday. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/14/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the Upper Midwest will continue to shift eastward toward the lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday. As this occurs, an upper ridge will briefly build over the Plains ahead of another upper trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue tracking south/southeast across the southern Plains and mid-South. A lack of strong winds aligned with lower RH conditions will preclude fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 13:27
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected Wednesday. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/14/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the Upper Midwest will continue to shift eastward toward the lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday. As this occurs, an upper ridge will briefly build over the Plains ahead of another upper trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue tracking south/southeast across the southern Plains and mid-South. A lack of strong winds aligned with lower RH conditions will preclude fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 13:27
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected Wednesday. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 11/14/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the Upper Midwest will continue to shift eastward toward the lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday. As this occurs, an upper ridge will briefly build over the Plains ahead of another upper trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue tracking south/southeast across the southern Plains and mid-South. A lack of strong winds aligned with lower RH conditions will preclude fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 11:22

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 34.5N29W, about 230 nm to
the SSW of the Azores. A surface trough extends S from the low
center to 30N30W to 25N35W. Scattered moderate convection is just
S of the Azores from 34N-37N between 25W-28W. Scattered showers
are elsewhere within 180 nm of the low. The low center is
supported aloft by an upper level low center near 35N29W. This system
has the potential to become a subtropical cyclone during the next
couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable.
Regardless of development, this low is expected to produce winds
to near gale force during the next day or two while it moves
slowly northeastward. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-
meteo-marine/bulletin. This system has a medium chance of
becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next couple of days.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
07N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N19W to 04N30W to the coast of South America near 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 08W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central Florida due to
the tail-end of quasi-stationary front near Melbourne. More
scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida E of 83W.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche. 10-20
kt NE to E surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to
surface ridging. In the upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf
of Mexico with axis from N Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Strong subsidence is over the Gulf. Expect over the next 48 hours
for surface ridging to build over the Gulf with scattered showers
persisting over the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the W Caribbean from 16N88W to
17N83W to include the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the trough. A surface trough extends
from E Cuba near 22N77W to 18N81W. Isolated moderate convection
is within 90 nm of this trough. Further S, a 1007 mb low is along
the coast of Colombia near 11N77W. Numerous strong convection is
from 10N-14N between 76W-79W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 09N-15N between 74W-83W. In the upper levels,
upper level diffluence is over the NW Caribbean enhancing
convection. An upper level high is centered over N Colombia near
10N76W. Expect additional convection over the central and SW
Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is presently over Haiti, and
scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic; mostly due to
upper level diffluence. Expect convection to spread over all of
Hispaniola over the next 24 hours. Convection will be heaviest in
the afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized
flooding and life-threatening mud slides are also possible over
the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N73W to
Melbourne Florida near 28N80W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 45 nm of the front. A prefrontal front extends from 30N70W
to the central Bahamas near 25N75W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of 25N between 62W-73W. A 1021 mb high is centered over the
central Atlantic near 30N49W. A 1010 mb low is over the E Atlantic
S of the Azores. See above. In addition a surface trough
is over the tropical Atlantic from 24N28W to 16N30W. Scattered
showers are within 180 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over the far W Atlantic
supporting the front. A large upper level low is centered over
the E Atlantic near 35N29W with a trough axis extending SW to
20N40W. Upper level diffluence is E of this trough axis to the
coast of W Africa.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 09:58
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across central New Mexico and also across southeastern Wyoming. These conditions will be too brief/localized to necessitate any highlights. For additional information, see the previous outlook below. ..Cook.. 11/14/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper shortwave trough will track eastward from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest today and tonight. This will lead to enhanced deep layer westerlies across the central and northern Rockies and induce lee trough development across the High Plains. A surface cold front also will track east/southeast across the northern and central Plains, becoming positioned from the upper Great Lakes to western north Texas by Wednesday morning. Dry downslope winds and low RH values will overspread much of the southern and central High Plains from eastern NM into southeast WY. Wind speeds generally will be light except near the central mountains of NM and the Laramie Range in WY where breezier conditions are anticipated. Some local/brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible in these locations, though a widespread, longer-duration threat is not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Tue, 11/14/2017 - 09:58
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across central New Mexico and also across southeastern Wyoming. These conditions will be too brief/localized to necessitate any highlights. For additional information, see the previous outlook below. ..Cook.. 11/14/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/ ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper shortwave trough will track eastward from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest today and tonight. This will lead to enhanced deep layer westerlies across the central and northern Rockies and induce lee trough development across the High Plains. A surface cold front also will track east/southeast across the northern and central Plains, becoming positioned from the upper Great Lakes to western north Texas by Wednesday morning. Dry downslope winds and low RH values will overspread much of the southern and central High Plains from eastern NM into southeast WY. Wind speeds generally will be light except near the central mountains of NM and the Laramie Range in WY where breezier conditions are anticipated. Some local/brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible in these locations, though a widespread, longer-duration threat is not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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