Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 09/22/2017 - 12:51
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous outlook are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin will continue to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. An upper ridge will persist over much of the eastern CONUS. While enhanced mid-level winds will remain present over portions of the Southwest into the High Plains Saturday afternoon, RH values behind a surface cold front are generally expected to remain above critical levels. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across parts of northern AZ and southeastern UT where RH values could become lowered near 20% in conjunction with strong/gusty surface winds. However, only marginally receptive to unreceptive fuels across this region and cooler temperatures behind the surface cold front preclude the introduction of an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 09/22/2017 - 10:40
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...Portions of Eastern Colorado... The critical fire weather area has been expanded north and eastward this update to account for latest HRRR wind/RH guidance and surface observation trends this morning. RH values are expected to fall into the 12-15 percent range in the critical area with sustained wind speeds in the 20-30 mph range with higher gusts for several hours this afternoon. The surrounding elevated area from portions of central NM into the central High Plains has been adjusted only slightly. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will make only slow eastward progress across the western CONUS today, while upper ridging remains over much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak low will develop northeastward across the northern Plains today, while a second area of low pressure redevelops across eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low over eastern CO across the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains... Strong 40-50 kt mid-level southwesterly winds will be present across much of the High Plains today in association with the previously mentioned upper trough over the western CONUS. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer occurs, a broad corridor of strong/gusty surface winds will develop this afternoon from portions of the Southwest into the eastern Great Basin, central/southern Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. Sustained south-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will likely occur, with higher gusts possible, particularly in higher terrain. RH values will become lowered mainly into the 15-25% range through downslope warming/drying of low levels along/behind a surface trough/dryline. Latest short-term guidance suggests these lowered RH values will likely occur across parts of NM, and the ongoing elevated area has been extended southward to account for this risk. A small area of critical conditions now appears likely across parts of southeastern CO for a few hours this afternoon where RH values will fall into the 12-15% range. Coupled with receptive fuels, these forecast meteorological conditions warrant the introduction of a small critical area across parts of southeastern CO. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 09/22/2017 - 10:40
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...Portions of Eastern Colorado... The critical fire weather area has been expanded north and eastward this update to account for latest HRRR wind/RH guidance and surface observation trends this morning. RH values are expected to fall into the 12-15 percent range in the critical area with sustained wind speeds in the 20-30 mph range with higher gusts for several hours this afternoon. The surrounding elevated area from portions of central NM into the central High Plains has been adjusted only slightly. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will make only slow eastward progress across the western CONUS today, while upper ridging remains over much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak low will develop northeastward across the northern Plains today, while a second area of low pressure redevelops across eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low over eastern CO across the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains... Strong 40-50 kt mid-level southwesterly winds will be present across much of the High Plains today in association with the previously mentioned upper trough over the western CONUS. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer occurs, a broad corridor of strong/gusty surface winds will develop this afternoon from portions of the Southwest into the eastern Great Basin, central/southern Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. Sustained south-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will likely occur, with higher gusts possible, particularly in higher terrain. RH values will become lowered mainly into the 15-25% range through downslope warming/drying of low levels along/behind a surface trough/dryline. Latest short-term guidance suggests these lowered RH values will likely occur across parts of NM, and the ongoing elevated area has been extended southward to account for this risk. A small area of critical conditions now appears likely across parts of southeastern CO for a few hours this afternoon where RH values will fall into the 12-15% range. Coupled with receptive fuels, these forecast meteorological conditions warrant the introduction of a small critical area across parts of southeastern CO. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 09/22/2017 - 07:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 21.9N 70.9W at 22/1200 UTC, or
about 26 nm NNE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 6 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110
kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within
120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 300 nm of the center. Maria's eye will move near or just
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas
today. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for the complete details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is centered near 39.7N 69.0W at
22/1200 UTC, or about 100 nm SSE of Nantucket, Massachusetts,
moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and
stable air prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs,
however some scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm E of
Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose is expected to meander well off
the coast of New England for the next several days. Please see
the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa earlier this
morning.
Its axis extends from 15N17W to 04N17W. The wave is in a region
of low vertical wind shear, however abundant Saharan dry air and
dust are in the northern and central wave environment, thus
supporting lack of convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N42W to 06N44W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW
show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a
lack of convection at this time. The exception is from 18N to 20N
between 40W and 44W where numerous moderate and scattered tstms
are being supported by shallow moisture and mid-level diffluence.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
10N15W to 08N23W to 06N33W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N33W to 08N39W, then resumes from 10N46W to
10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between
22W and 31W and from 07N to 11N between 46W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S across the
northern Gulf waters and provides E light to gentle flow E of 90W
and ESE light to moderate winds W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from
aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair
weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the
SW Gulf support scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of
Campeche where a surface trough extends from 22N93W to inland S
Mexico. No major changes expected during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola,
however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in
continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection
extends to 13N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished
mainly to moderate with seas to 7 ft. Isolated showers are in the
SW basin S of 16N associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail in the E Caribbean
while light and variable flow is elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading
westward across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist
into the first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the
special features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
31N78W to the straits of Florida near 24N80W. The remainder of
the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores
high pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee
are centered near 29N48W with elongated troughing extending N of
the remnant low to 33N46W and S of the low to 23N50W. Scattered
moderate convection and tstms are from 23N to 31N between 46W
and 51W. No redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during
the next couple of days while the surface low gradually
dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 09/22/2017 - 05:17

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 21.6N 70.6W at 22/0900 UTC, or
about 30 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 6 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110
kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120
nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 300 nm of the center. Maria's eye will move near or just
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas
today. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete
details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is centered near 39.7N 68.7W at
22/0900 UTC, or about 105 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts,
moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and
stable air prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs,
however some scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm E of
Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose is expected to meander well off the
coast of New England for the next several days. Please see the
latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa earlier this morning.
Its axis extends from 15N17W to 04N17W. The wave is in a region of low
vertical wind shear, however abundant Saharan dry air and dust are
in the northern and central wave environment, thus supporting lack
of convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N42W to 06N44W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW
show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a
lack of convection at this time. The exception is from 18N to 20N
between 40W and 44W where numerous moderate and scattered tstms
are being supported by shallow moisture and mid-level diffluence.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
10N15W to 08N23W to 06N33W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N33W to 08N39W, then resumes from 10N46W to
10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between
22W and 31W and from 07N to 11N between 46W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S across the
northern Gulf waters and provides E light to gentle flow E of 90W
and ESE light to moderate winds W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from
aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair
weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the
SW Gulf support scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of Campeche
where a surface trough extends from 22N93W to inland S Mexico. No
major changes expected during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola,
however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in
continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection
extends to 13N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished
mainly to moderate with seas to 7 ft. Isolated showers are in the
SW basin S of 16N associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail in the E Caribbean
while light and variable flow is elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward
across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special
features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
31N78W to the straits of Florida near 24N80W. The remainder of
the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores
high pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are
centered near 29N48W with elongated troughing extending N of the
remnant low to 33N46W and S of the low to 23N50W. Scattered
moderate convection and tstms are from 23N to 31N between 46W and
51W. No redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during the
next couple of days while the surface low gradually dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 09/22/2017 - 01:38
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin will continue to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. An upper ridge will persist over much of the eastern CONUS. While enhanced mid-level winds will remain present over portions of the Southwest into the High Plains Saturday afternoon, RH values behind a surface cold front are generally expected to remain above critical levels. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across parts of northern AZ and southeastern UT where RH values could become lowered near 20% in conjunction with strong/gusty surface winds. However, only marginally receptive to unreceptive fuels across this region and cooler temperatures behind the surface cold front preclude the introduction of an elevated area at this time. ..Gleason.. 09/22/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Fri, 09/22/2017 - 01:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will make only slow eastward progress across the western CONUS today, while upper ridging remains over much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak low will develop northeastward across the northern Plains today, while a second area of low pressure redevelops across eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from the low over eastern CO across the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains... Strong 40-50 kt mid-level southwesterly winds will be present across much of the High Plains today in association with the previously mentioned upper trough over the western CONUS. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer occurs, a broad corridor of strong/gusty surface winds will develop this afternoon from portions of the Southwest into the eastern Great Basin, central/southern Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. Sustained south-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will likely occur, with higher gusts possible, particularly in higher terrain. RH values will become lowered mainly into the 15-25% range through downslope warming/drying of low levels along/behind a surface trough/dryline. Latest short-term guidance suggests these lowered RH values will likely occur across parts of NM, and the ongoing elevated area has been extended southward to account for this risk. A small area of critical conditions now appears likely across parts of southeastern CO for a few hours this afternoon where RH values will fall into the 12-15% range. Coupled with receptive fuels, these forecast meteorological conditions warrant the introduction of a small critical area across parts of southeastern CO. ..Gleason.. 09/22/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Fri, 09/22/2017 - 01:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 21.0N 70.2W at 22/0300 UTC, or
about 75 nm NNE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, or about 60
nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 7 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with
gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of
the center except. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 240 nm of the center, except 300 nm SE quadrant. Maria's
eye will gradually move away from the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic and then move near or just east of the Turks
and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Please see
the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Jose centered near 39.5N 68.4W at 22/0300 UTC, or
about 120 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving W at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and stable air prevails
near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some scattered
moderate convection is within 135 nm E of Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose
is forecast to meander well offshore of the coast of southeastern
New England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and
the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N40W to 03N41W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW
show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a
lack of convection at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
11N16W to 07N22W to 06N30W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N30W to 08N38W, then resumes from 09N42W to
11N50W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to
08N between 26W and 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S-SW across the
Gulf waters and provides ENE light to moderate flow E of 90W and
ESE winds of the same magnitude W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from
aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair
weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the
central Gulf support isolated showers also associated with the
remnants of a surface trough. No major changes expected during the
next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola,
however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in
continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection
extends to 15N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished to
fresh, however seas are up to 10 ft. Scattered to isolated showers
are in the SW basin associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.
Otherwise, mainly moderate trades prevail across the basin which
will persist for the start of the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward
across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special
features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
29N75W to Andros Island in the Bahamas. The remainder of the
basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high
pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are
centered near 22N49W with elongated troughing extending N of the
remnant low to 30N and S of the low to 16N52W. Scattered moderate
convection and tstms are from 22N to 25N between 48W and 51W. No
redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during the next
couple of days while the surface low gradually dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 19:00

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 20.9N 70.0W at 22/0000 UTC, or
about 74 nm NNE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, or about 70
nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 8 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with
gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within
90 nm of the center except within 120 nm in the S quadrant.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the
center except within 300 nm in the SE quadrant. The center of
Maria will continue to remain offshore of the Dominican Republic
tonight, moving near the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern
Bahamas through Friday. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Jose centered near 39.6N 68.1W at 22/0000 UTC, or
about 130 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving W at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and stable air prevails
near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some scattered
moderate convection is between 120 nm and 270 nm in the NW
semicircle of Jose. Tropical storm force winds associated with
Jose extend out far from the center, up to 180 nm in the NW
quadrant. Jose is forecast to continue to lose tropical
characteristics, likely becoming post-tropical by Fri afternoon.
Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending S
of 18N along 41W moving W at around 10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of abundant moisture as depicted by SSMI TPW
imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm E of the
tropical wave axis and within 120 nm W of the tropical wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
10N14W to 06N24W to 06N31W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N31W to 09N39W, then resumes from 09N43W to
10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between
23W and 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure area is centered over the upper
Mississippi Valley, extending a ridge S-SW to along coastal Texas.
A weak surface trough was analyzed in the Gulf of Mexico from
28N85W to 24N89W. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring on the NW
side of the trough. Aloft, a middle to upper level trough extends
from S central Virginia to central Louisiana with isolated
convection across the Florida Panhandle which should diminish with
the arrival of sunset. Elsewhere aloft, W-NW flow prevails around
an upper level anticyclone positioned over southern Mexico. Mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE flow prevails across the basin, along
with 2 to 4 ft seas W of 90W, and 2 ft or less E of 90W. The
surface trough is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Maria remains N of the area N of Hispaniola with
troughing reaching from southern Hispaniola to the S central
Caribbean just N of the coast of Colombia. Very heavy rainfall
resulting in continuous flash flooding remains over Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Aloft, a middle to upper level trough
extends into the area across central Cuba to eastern Honduras with
dry and stable air over the NW Caribbean behind the trough. An
upper level anticyclone is located near the NW coast of Colombia
with anticyclonic flow found elsewhere across the basin.
Mainly moderate trades prevail across the basin which will persist
for the start of the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward
across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special
features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
31N73W to the gulf stream between the NW Bahamas and Florida near
26N80W. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring mainly NW of the
trough axis. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high pressure area centered at
the surface near 36N50W. Aloft, middle to upper level troughing
is present NW of Maria, W of mainly 70W, while upper ridging
extends from N to S to the E of Maria along 63W/64W.

Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are centered near
21N49W with elongated troughing extending N of the remnant low to
30N. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted N of 21N
to the E of the trough to 39W. No redevelopment of the remnants is
anticipated during the next couple of days while the surface low
gradually dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky

Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 12:48

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 21/1800 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 20.4N 69.4W or
about 74 nm ENE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt
with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm
of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. The eye of Hurricane
Maria will continue to pass offshore of the northeastern coast of
the Dominican Republic today. Maria should then move near the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and
Friday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 21/1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 139 nm SE of
Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.5N 67.9W, stationary. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from 38N-43N
between 70W-74W. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 180 nm from the center. Cool waters,
dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause Jose to
steadily weaken and lead to post-tropical transition within the
next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N40W to 07N40W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of
moderate low to middle level moisture N of 13N, and abundant
moisture S of 13N, as shown by SSMI TPW imagery. A well defined
surface reflection is also noted. Isolated moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
13N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to 10N49W to
09N56W to 10N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is occurring
off of the coast of Africa from 05N-11N E of 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N87W. Surface
ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico N of 26N. A very small low is
over the central Gulf near 25N88W, depicted by a swirl of low
clouds, and scattered showers within 90 nm of the center.
Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast
of Texas, and over the W Gulf W of 94W. More scattered showers are
over portions of SE florida. Surface winds over most of the Gulf
are only 5-10 kt. The Bay of Campeche has some 15 kt winds. In
the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the SW Gulf
near 21N95W. The base of an upper level trough is over the NE
Gulf. Expect the surface low to dissipate over the next 12 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria is over Atlc waters NE of eastern
Dominican Republic, however tropical storm winds still reach a
portion of NW Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over Puerto Rico, while numerous strong convection
is over the Mona Passage and the Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico
continues to have localized flooding. See the special features
section for further details. Strong winds and high seas associated
with Maria prevail in the NE Caribbean mainly N of 16N. The
eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa
Rica, Panama through Colombia supporting isolated showers and
tstms in the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Of note in the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with
axis from central Cuba near 22N79W to central Honduras near
14N86W. Some scattered showers are Just E of the trough axis due
to upper level diffluence. Expect winds and seas associated with
Maria to gradually diminish through Friday as the cyclone moves
farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for portions of the northern
Dominican Republic while a tropical storm warning is in effect for
Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory. Numerous strong convection is occurring over
the Dominican Republic spreading across the rest of the Island as
Maria continues to move NW over SW N Atlc waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1012 mb low, the
remnants of Lee, is located near 19N48W. A surface trough extends
N from the low to 25N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 21N-25N between 45W-49W. The remainder of the basin remains
under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north
of the area. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low
is centered near 24N49W. Scattered moderate convection is NE of
this center from 27N-31N between 39W-45W due to upper level
diffluence.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 11:58
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Central High Plains... Only modest changes have been made to the previous outlook area, mainly across parts of western KS and southwest NE. This is based on latest model guidance regarding where a surface dryline will develop from central NE southwestward into western KS. Overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged however. See previous discussion for details. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ ...Synopsis... Very little change to large-scale pattern is expected on Friday, as a deep upper trough remains over the West, while an upper ridge remains in place from the eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A weak surface low is expected to move from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through the period, while another low redevelops in the lee of the Rockies. ...Central High Plains... Another relatively dry and windy day is expected across portions of the central High Plains, as low-level south-southwesterly flow remains strong ahead of the trough over the West. Some modest moistening is possible compared to D1/Thursday, though trajectories off of the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain rather unfavorable for substantial moisture return into the High Plains. Since sustained winds are expected to remain in the 20-25 mph range across a broad area, the fire weather threat will be largely determined by where the greatest RH reductions will occur. There is a fair amount of model spread regarding where the strongest drying will occur, though there is modest agreement that the area from eastern CO into west-central/northwest KS and southwest NE will see RH values drop into the 15-25% range, resulting in an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat. Some adjustments to this elevated area will likely be needed with time as details regarding the RH forecast are resolved, and it is possible that some areas will see critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region... Dry and windy conditions are also expected to persist across the Four Corners region on Friday, though some cooling is expected compared to D1/Thursday. Sustained winds are likely to remain in the 20-25 mph range, but with some increase in RH values expected and generally marginal fuel conditions across this area, no elevated delineation has been made across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 11:58
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Central High Plains... Only modest changes have been made to the previous outlook area, mainly across parts of western KS and southwest NE. This is based on latest model guidance regarding where a surface dryline will develop from central NE southwestward into western KS. Overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged however. See previous discussion for details. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ ...Synopsis... Very little change to large-scale pattern is expected on Friday, as a deep upper trough remains over the West, while an upper ridge remains in place from the eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A weak surface low is expected to move from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through the period, while another low redevelops in the lee of the Rockies. ...Central High Plains... Another relatively dry and windy day is expected across portions of the central High Plains, as low-level south-southwesterly flow remains strong ahead of the trough over the West. Some modest moistening is possible compared to D1/Thursday, though trajectories off of the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain rather unfavorable for substantial moisture return into the High Plains. Since sustained winds are expected to remain in the 20-25 mph range across a broad area, the fire weather threat will be largely determined by where the greatest RH reductions will occur. There is a fair amount of model spread regarding where the strongest drying will occur, though there is modest agreement that the area from eastern CO into west-central/northwest KS and southwest NE will see RH values drop into the 15-25% range, resulting in an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat. Some adjustments to this elevated area will likely be needed with time as details regarding the RH forecast are resolved, and it is possible that some areas will see critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region... Dry and windy conditions are also expected to persist across the Four Corners region on Friday, though some cooling is expected compared to D1/Thursday. Sustained winds are likely to remain in the 20-25 mph range, but with some increase in RH values expected and generally marginal fuel conditions across this area, no elevated delineation has been made across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 10:33
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NE... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS today, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/drying will result in an increasing fire weather threat this afternoon, and the critical area has been maintained across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. This wind/RH combination in conjunction with continued curing of finer fuels will result in a critical fire weather risk. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO/southern WY... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, northwest NM, and southern WY this afternoon, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. While much of this area could see critical meteorological conditions, fuels are generally rather marginal across this region, and confidence in a sufficient duration of critical RH is too low where somewhat drier fuels reside across northwest NM and southwest CO, so no upgrade has been made in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 10:33
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NE... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS today, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/drying will result in an increasing fire weather threat this afternoon, and the critical area has been maintained across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. This wind/RH combination in conjunction with continued curing of finer fuels will result in a critical fire weather risk. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO/southern WY... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, northwest NM, and southern WY this afternoon, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. While much of this area could see critical meteorological conditions, fuels are generally rather marginal across this region, and confidence in a sufficient duration of critical RH is too low where somewhat drier fuels reside across northwest NM and southwest CO, so no upgrade has been made in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 06:55

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 21/1200 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 19.9N 68.7W or
about 82 nm NNW of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 135
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere within 175 nm of the center. The eye of
Hurricane Maria will continue to pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic today. Maria should
then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas tonight and Friday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 21/1200 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 130 nm SE
of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.6N 68.1W, stationary. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from
39N to 44N between 67W and 74W. Jose is expected to meander off
the coast of southeast New England for the next several days.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N39W to 07N38W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear and is in an environment
of moderate moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW
imagery. However, some Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to the
west environment of the wave is evident in enhanced IR imagery
and CIRA LPW imagery. Upper level diffluence support scattered
moderate convection from 07N to 17N between 33W and 44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
12N30W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N51W to
09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is occurring
off of the coast of Africa from 05N to 11N E of 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface low pressure dominate the Gulf SW waters and the Yucatan
Peninsula with a trough extending from 21N92W to southern
Guatemala supporting scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of
Campeche. Fresh winds are associated with this surface trough. In
the SE basin, a 1013 mb low is located near 25N86W, which is
forecast to dissipate during the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
a surface ridge over the SE CONUS extends to the NE Gulf where it
is anchored by a 1016 mb high near 28N88W. An upper level ridge
over the basin and dry air subsidence support fair weather
elsewhere in the basin. Easterly light to moderate winds are
across much of the Gulf. Expect little change over the next 48
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria is over Atlc waters NE of eastern
Dominican Republic, however tropical storm winds still reach a
portion of NW Puerto Rico. Scattered heavy showers and tstms
continue over the western half of Puerto Rico while numerous
heavy showers are across the Mona Passage and the eastern half
of the Dominican Republic. Showers over Puerto Rico are likely
to continue through this evening potentially generating flash
floods.
See the special features section for further details. Strong
winds and high seas associated with Maria prevail in the NE
Caribbean mainly N of 16N. The eastern extent of the Pacific
monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica, Panama through
Colombia supporting isolated showers and tstms in the SW
Caribbean S of 15N W of 79W. Winds and seas associated with
Maria will gradually diminish through early Friday as the
cyclone moves farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern Dominican Republic
while a tropical storm warning is along the southern region. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Numerous strong convection is occuring over the E Dominican
Republic spreading across the rest of the Island as Maria
continuen to move NW over SW N Atlc waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1011 mb low - the
remnants of Lee - is located near 19N48W. No significant deep
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a low
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
30N45W to 23N48W, which is being supported by an upper-level
trough. Scattered showers and tstms are observed from 21N to 31N
between 40W and 49W. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the
area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 01:55
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Very little change to large-scale pattern is expected on Friday, as a deep upper trough remains over the West, while an upper ridge remains in place from the eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A weak surface low is expected to move from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through the period, while another low redevelops in the lee of the Rockies. ...Central High Plains... Another relatively dry and windy day is expected across portions of the central High Plains, as low-level south-southwesterly flow remains strong ahead of the trough over the West. Some modest moistening is possible compared to D1/Thursday, though trajectories off of the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain rather unfavorable for substantial moisture return into the High Plains. Since sustained winds are expected to remain in the 20-25 mph range across a broad area, the fire weather threat will be largely determined by where the greatest RH reductions will occur. There is a fair amount of model spread regarding where the strongest drying will occur, though there is modest agreement that the area from eastern CO into west-central/northwest KS and southwest NE will see RH values drop into the 15-25% range, resulting in an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat. Some adjustments to this elevated area will likely be needed with time as details regarding the RH forecast are resolved, and it is possible that some areas will see critical conditions. ...Four Corners Region... Dry and windy conditions are also expected to persist across the Four Corners region on Friday, though some cooling is expected compared to D1/Thursday. Sustained winds are likely to remain in the 20-25 mph range, but with some increase in RH values expected and generally marginal fuel conditions across this area, no elevated delineation has been made across the region. ..Dean.. 09/21/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 01:53
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NE... ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the western CONUS today, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/drying will result in an increasing fire weather threat this afternoon, and the critical area has been maintained across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. This wind/RH combination in conjunction with continued curing of finer fuels will result in a critical fire weather risk. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO/southern WY... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, northwest NM, and southern WY this afternoon, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. While much of this area could see critical meteorological conditions, fuels are generally rather marginal across this region, and confidence in a sufficient duration of critical RH is too low where somewhat drier fuels reside across northwest NM and southwest CO, so no upgrade has been made in this area. ..Dean.. 09/21/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 09/21/2017 - 01:01

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 21/0300 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 19.2N 67.9W or
about 45 nm NE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt, Category 2. Numerous strong convection is
within 105 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. The
core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from Puerto
Rico during the next several hours, and then pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday. Maria
should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 21/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 135 nm SE of
Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.5N 68.2W, moving east-northeast
at 5 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from
40N to 43N between 68W and 74W. On the forecast track, the center
of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New
England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N37W to 06N37W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear and is in an environment
of moderate moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW
imagery. However, some Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to the
west environment of the wave is evident in enhanced IR imagery and
CIRA LPW imagery. Upper level diffluence support scattered
moderate convection from 08N to 17N between 30W and 40W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
12N30W to 09N43W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N56W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is occurring scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring off of the coast of Africa from 05N
to 11N E of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface low pressure dominate the Gulf SW waters and the Yucatan
Peninsula where a trough extends from 21N88W to southern
Guatemala. Scatterometer data show fresh winds off the W Yucatan
Peninsula coast associated with this surface trough. In the SE
basin, a 1014 mb low pressure is located near 25N85W, which is
forecast to dissipate during the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
a surface ridge over the SE CONUS extends to the NE Gulf where it
is anchored by a 1017 mb high near 29N87W. An upper level ridge
over the basin and dry air subsidence support fair weather basin-
wide. Winds are weak and easterly across much of the Gulf
tonight. Expect little change over the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Category 2 Hurricane Maria continues to gradually
move away from Puerto Rico, however tropical storm conditions
prevail across the western half of the Island along with heavy
showers that will continue to generate flash floods possibly
through Friday. Similar conditions are being experienced by the
Dominican Republic as the eye of Maria is moving across NE
adjacent waters. See the special features section for further
details. Strong winds and high seas associated with Maria prevail
in the NE Caribbean mainly N of 17N. The eastern extent of the
Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica through Colombia
supporting isolated showers and tstms in the SW Caribbean S of 15N
W of 79W. Winds and seas associated with Maria will gradually
diminish through early Friday as the cyclone moves farther NW over
the SW N Atlc waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern Dominican Republic
while a tropical storm warning is along the southern region. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E
Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the entire
island to be under rainbands over the the next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1010 mb low - the
remnants of Lee - is located near 18N47W. No significant deep
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a low
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
30N45W to 23N48W to the remnants of Lee, which is being supported
by an upper-level trough. Scattered showers and tstms are
observed from 22N to 31N between 40W and 49W. The remainder of the
basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high
centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 09/20/2017 - 19:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 21/0000 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 18.9N 67.5W or
about 48 nm ENE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 11 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt, Category 2. Numerous strong convection is
within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. On
the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to
move away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this
evening. The core will then pass offshore of the northeastern
coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday and then
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas
Thursday night and Friday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 21/0000 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 125 nm SSE
of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.4N 68.6W, moving northeast
at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring in the NW quadrant of the storm
from 39N-44N between 67W-73W. On the forecast track, the center
of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New
England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the East Atlantic with axis near 35W from
about 06N to 21N, moving westward at about 20 kt. The wave is
well-defined in both the SUNY-Albany 700 mb trough diagnostics
as well as a maxima in the total precipitable water imagery on
the east side of the wave axis. The wave also has a surface
trough as observed by the earlier ASCAT scatterometer data.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
between 10N and 15N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over Central America with the axis near 88W
from about 10N to 20N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. The
wave is apparent in the SUNY-Albany 700 mb trough diagnostics,
but not distinguishable in the total precipitable water imagery.
There may be a surface trough associated with the wave as well,
though it is difficult to disentangle it from the diurnal trough
setting up over the Yucatan. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection has been developing in the last few hours over
Central America south of 17N within 180 nm of the axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
12N27W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 10N32W. The ITCZ
breaks at the tropical wave near 35W and then starts again at
08N39W to 08N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is occurring within
60 nm of the ITCZ betwen 38W and 43W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring off of the coast of
Guinea north of 08N east of 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak trough of low pressure extends from the central Florida
peninsula near 27N82W to 26N87W. Isolated showers are occurring
within 60 nm of the trough. Elsewhere no significant convection
is occurring. Winds are weak and easterly across the Gulf this
evening. Expect little change over the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

the core of dangerout Hurricane maria is gradually moving away
from Puerto Rico. Conditions are now deteriorating over eastern
Dominican Republic. See the special features section for further
details. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is
over Costa Rica and Panama. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Scatterometer
data shows mainly light to gentle trade winds west of 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata. A tropical storm warning is in
effect for Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the
northern border with Haiti as well as from west of Cabo Engano
to Punta Palenque. A hurricane watch is in effect for Dominican
Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano. A dangerous storm surge
accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water
levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide levels in the
hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic
and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E
Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the
entire island to be under rainbands over the the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1008 mb low - the
remnants of Lee - is located near 18N47W. No significant deep
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a Low
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
31N46W to 23N47W in association with an upper-level trough.
Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection is observed
within 300 nm east of the trough. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores
high centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 09/20/2017 - 13:46
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... No changes have been made to the ongoing critical area across eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and far southwest Nebraska. Sustained winds around 20-30 mph will combine with RH values around 10-15% to increase concerns across parts of the central High Plains. Fine fuels will be sufficiently dry, such that these meteorological conditions will support a critical threat Thursday. Elsewhere, the elevated area has been expanded, mainly to account for breezy/windy conditions across much of the region, in response to strong southwesterly mid-level flow along the periphery of an amplified trough across the West. Fuels in some locations are only marginally receptive to rapid fire spread; however, the strength of flow, combined with curing of fine fuels and RH values near 20%, will likely support elevated concerns. ..Picca.. 09/20/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is expected to move slowly eastward across the West on Thursday, while an upper ridge amplifies from the Ozarks region northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes. A surface low will deepen in the lee of the Rockies as the trough approaches from the west. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow in conjunction with strong heating/mixing of a dry airmass will result in an increasing fire weather threat on Thursday, and a critical area has been introduced across eastern CO, western KS, and far southwest NE. Across this area, sustained winds are expected to increase into the 20-25 mph range during the afternoon as RH values fall below 15%. The northern extent of the critical area is constrained by weaker wind speeds in closer proximity to the surface low, while the southern and eastern extent are constrained by uncertainty regarding the critical RH potential, and also by increasingly marginal fuel conditions. ...Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO... Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected across northeast AZ, eastern UT, western CO, and northwest NM on Thursday, as sustained winds increase into the 20-25 mph range and RH values drop to near 15%. At this time, the best chance for critical wind/RH appears to be displaced to the west of the drier fuels, so no upgrade has been made for this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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