Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 01/25/2018 - 05:50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in
the central Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in
northern Colombia will bring pulses of strong-to-minimal gale
force NE to E winds along and near the coast of Colombia during
the overnight hours through Friday, and possibly into the
upcoming weekend. The sea heights are expected to be in the range
of 9 feet to 14 feet with the winds. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Cold front 25N80W to 23N86W, then
stationary 20.5N95W TO 18N93W. NW gale force winds prevail S of
21N and west of the front. Seas will range between 8-14 ft. The
surface pressure gradient in the far SW Gulf along the coast of
Mexico in the vicinity of Veracruz has become tighter, as the
surface ridge that extends from strong high pressure centered in
eastern Texas presses southward along eastern Mexico and toward
the SW Gulf of Mexico. the tight pressure gradient from the
building ridge will maintain these conditions today, before
diminishing to N-to-NE fresh winds in the evening hours. Please
read the the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W, to 01N23W,
and to the Equator along 35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 52W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold/stationary front, and the associated gale-force northerly
winds.

A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1033 mb high
centered near 33N88W. A surface trough extends across the southern
Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to 18N93W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are spread across the Gulf of Mexico, in areas of
broken low level clouds. A stationary front from 25N80W to 21N93W
will dissipate through tonight. A trough will meander across the
SW Gulf waters from 22N96W to 18N93W through Saturday. The trough
will lift N as a warm front on Saturday night, with a surface low
developing along the front near 27N92W. The low will move NE on
Sunday, passing across the Florida Big Bend on Sunday night, and
drag a cold front across the Eastern Gulf waters by sunrise on
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds for the area that is off the coast of Colombia.
Rainshowers are from 17N to 25N between 64W and 68W, from the
waters that are just to the south of Puerto Rico into the Atlantic
Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are also noted from 12N
northward from 80W westward. Strong to minimal gale force trade
winds are forecast along the the NW coast of Colombia during the
overnight hours through the weekend. A slowly-moving cold front
will stall on Thursday, from Central Cuba to Belize and gradually
dissipate through Friday. Strengthening high pressure in the wake
of the front will produce fresh to locally strong NE winds across
the NW Caribbean by late today, with strong to near gale force NE
flow spreading E across the NE Caribbean on Friday night through
Saturday. Conditions will improve across the Caribbean Sea from
the NW beginning late Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trades
will continue across the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters E of the
Windwards through Friday night, with strong NE winds forecast from
Saturday through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, and southwestward to 26N77W.
The front becomes stationary at 26N77W, and it continues from the
NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 21N93W in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
to the NW of the line that passes through 32N62W to 26N70W to
20N70W, in the Atlantic Ocean, and across much of the Gulf of
Mexico. To the east, a surface trough is along 49W/50W from 18N
to 26N. A second surface trough is along 62W/63W from 23N to 31N.
Isolated rainshowers are from 18N to 25N between 44W and 50W.
The cold front segment will continue SE, stalling from 24N65W to
NW Cuba on Friday evening, with remnants of the front gradually
dissipating between 20N and 23N through Saturday night. The W part
of the front will lift N as a warm front across the Straits of
Florida on Sunday night. The western part of the front will be
ahead of a surface low, that is racing NE off the NE Florida coast
and dragging a cold front E across the Straits of Florida on
Monday, reaching the Central Bahamas late Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT/ERA

Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 01/25/2018 - 01:21
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The upper trough will slowly migrate across the Plains toward the Great Lakes/MS Valley region on Friday. Enhanced westerly deep-layer flow will remain over the central and southern Plains as the trough departs. At the surface, a cold front will track southeast across the Plains, roughly extending from near Kansas City through northwest OK into east-central NM by 00z Saturday. Moisture will return northward across much of eastern TX/OK, but dry conditions will remain further west across the southern High Plains and elevated fire weather conditions are expected Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler across portions of the region, with highs in the mid 50s across southeast CO and southwest KS. Further south, temperatures will still be seasonally warm in the mid to upper 60s. RH values also will remain low across southern and eastern NM, southeast CO, southwest KS into northwest OK, the OK/TX Panhandles and far southwest TX. Wind speeds will be somewhat weaker as the surface pressure gradient weakens with the surface trough lifting northeast toward the Upper Midwest. Initially southwest winds around 10-15 mph will shift to the northwest by mid to late afternoon at around 15 mph with higher gusts. Wind speed will diminish after dark and RH values will increase. ..Leitman.. 01/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 01/25/2018 - 01:19
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Portions of the Central and Southern Plains... An upper trough will progress eastward across the western U.S. today, becoming positioned over the Rockies by Friday morning. This will lead to height falls across the Plains as the ridge migrates east of the Mississippi River. Ahead of the main upper trough, a wake shortwave impulse will migrate northeast across the southern Plains. Low to midlevel southwesterly flow will increase as a result. Additionally, lee troughing will increase the surface pressure gradient over the central and southern Plains and gusty surface winds are expected. A dry airmass remains over the region as is evident in current water vapor imagery and as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs, which indicated PW values less than 0.20 inches. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also expected today, further increasing fire weather concerns across the region. High temperatures will climb into the 60s to near 70 degrees this afternoon while RH values fall into the upper single digits to 15 percent across parts of northeast NM, southeast CO, southern KS, western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across this region as sustained southwesterly winds increase to near 20 mph with higher gusts. Across a broader region surrounding the critical area and extending southward into parts of western and central TX, elevated conditions are expected. RH values will be higher with southern extent across parts of western and central TX as a modified maritime airmass beings to creep back northward. However, values should still fall into the 20-35 percent range with gusty southwest winds. RH values may be somewhat higher on the eastern periphery across southeast KS into northeast and central OK where RH values from 15-25 percent are expected in the presence of gusty winds. Wind speeds will remain breezy overnight but RH will rebound to greater than 50 percent region-wide. ..Leitman.. 01/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 01/25/2018 - 00:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in
the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern
Colombia will bring pulses of strong-to-minimal gale force NE to
E winds along and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight
hours, from today through Friday, and possibly for more time,
into the upcoming weekend. The sea heights are expected to be in
the range of 9 feet to 14 feet with the winds. Please read the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: COLD FRONT FROM 25N80W TO 23N86W,
THEN STATIONARY TO 20.5N95W TO 18N93W. S OF 21N W OF FRONT NW
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. The surface pressure gradient
in the far SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico in the vicinity of
Veracruz has become tighter, as the surface ridge that extends
from strong high pressure centered in eastern Texas presses
southward along eastern Mexico and toward the SW Gulf of Mexico.
the tight pressure gradient from the building ridge will maintain
the northerly gale wind conditions into Thursday, before
diminishing to N-to-NE fresh winds. Please read the the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W, to 01N23W,
and to the Equator along 35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 52W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front/stationary front, and the associated gale-force
northerly winds.

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb Texas 31N97W mb high
pressure center, through the Deep South of Texas, to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from
18N93W to 21N95W.

Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are spread across the
Gulf of Mexico, in areas of broken low level clouds.

A stationary front from 25N80W to 21N93W will dissipate through
Thursday night. A trough will meander across the SW Gulf waters
from 22N96W to 18N93W through Saturday. The trough will lift N as
a warm front on Saturday night, with a surface low developing
along the front near 27N92W. The low will move NE on Sunday,
passing across the Florida Big Bend on Sunday night, and drag a
cold front across the Eastern Gulf waters by sunrise on Monday.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds for the area that is off the coast of Colombia.

Precipitation: Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers
are from 17N to 25N between 64W and 68W, from the waters that are
just to the south of Puerto Rico into the Atlantic Ocean. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 12N northward from 80W westward.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 80W eastward, in areas of
broken low level clouds.

Strong to minimal gale force trade winds are forecast along the
the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours through Monday
night. A slowly-moving cold front will stall on Thursday, from
Central Cuba to Belize and gradually dissipate through Friday.
Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will produce
fresh to locally strong NE winds across the NW Caribbean by late
Thursday, with strong to near gale force NE flow spreading E
across the NE Caribbean on Friday night through Saturday.
Conditions will improve across the Caribbean Sea from the NW
beginning late Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue across the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters E of the
Windwards through Friday night, with strong NE winds forecast from
Saturday through Sunday night.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, and southwestward to 26N77W.
The front becomes stationary at 26N77W, and it continues from the
NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 21N93W in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that
passes through 32N62W to 26N70W to 20N70W, in the Atlantic Ocean,
and across much of the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N
to 30N between 38W and 50W, with an upper level trough. One
surface trough is along 49W/50W from 18N to 26N. A second surface
trough is along 62W/63W from 23N to 31N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 18N to
25N between 44W and 50W.

A cold front extends SW from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas, and then it
becomes stationary across the Straits of Florida. The cold front
segment will continue SE, stalling from 24N65W to NW Cuba on
Friday evening, with remnants of the front gradually dissipating
between 20N and 23N through Saturday night. The W part of the front
will lift N as a warm front across the Straits of Florida on
Sunday night. The western part of the front will be ahead of a
surface low, that is racing NE off the NE Florida coast and
dragging a cold front E across the Straits of Florida on Monday,
reaching the Central Bahamas late Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

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