Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - 1 hour 15 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 998 mb low pressure system located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean near 26N 24W is producing gale-force-winds, mainly to the
west of the center. This system is producing numerous showers and
thunderstorms within 240 n mi east of the center. Another area of
associated thunderstorms is over the Canary Islands from 24N to
30N between 14W and 19W aided by diffluent flow aloft. This low is
expected to weaken as it moves southeastward and then eastward
during the next 24 hours. For more details, refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 8N13W and
continues southwestward to 4N20W and then to 1N32W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 1N to 6N between
13W and 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Generally fair weather prevails across the Gulf of Mexico today
with only patches of clouds moving across the area. The clouds
are most organized over the north-central waters north of 27N
between 86W and 90W, where a few showers are occurring. A
stationary front is located along the coast of Texas and
northeastern Mexico, but this feature is not producing any
significant weather at the moment. Winds are mostly light to
moderate out of the east and southeast across the area, and seas
are up to 6 feet in some locations.

No significant changes are expected across the Gulf this weekend.
Another front is expected to move over the northwestern waters on
Sunday, but this feature is forecast to stall and weaken shortly
thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fair conditions are also common across the Caribbean Sea today.
Visible satellite images show patches of low-level clouds across
the area moving within the trade wind flow. Slightly more
organized cloud streamers are moving across the Windward Islands,
where scattered showers are likely embedded. Although there is
some shower activity across the region, abundant dry air in the
mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere is expected to limit
significant thunderstorms from developing. Winds have dropped
below gale force near the coast of Colombia this morning, but they
are still around 30 kt there. Elsewhere, the trade winds are
generally in the 20-30 kt range, except lighter over the
northwestern waters. Seas are highest near the coast of Colombia,
up to 14 ft, and a large area of seas 8 ft and higher are
occurring east of about 82W.

Looking ahead to the weekend, winds and seas are expected to
gradually lessen as the high pressure system to the north of the
area weakens in place.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Besides for the low pressure system discussed in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section above, generally tranquil weather conditions are
occurring across the Atlantic. Strong surface high pressure
centered near Bermuda and dry air in the mid and upper-levels are
supporting fair weather and moderate to fresh winds across the
subtropical west and central Atlantic waters today. Over the deep
tropics, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring south
of 5N between 41W and 51W. This activity is associated with a
surface trough and a diffluent upper-level pattern.

The low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to
move eastward and weaken during the next 24 hours, but a cold
front is expected to move into the same region bringing another
round of strong winds. Little change is expected over the central
and western Atlantic waters during the next day or two as the
high pressure sysetm remains stationary and weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - 3 hours 48 sec ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The ongoing forecast is on track. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in eastern New Mexico and vicinity this afternoon. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Cook.. 02/23/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today, mainly across portions of eastern NM and southwest TX. The western upper trough will rotate across the Four Corners region toward the Rockies and adjacent High Plains by tonight. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase and a weak lee trough will develop over the southern High Plains. As a result, breezy southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph with some higher gusts are expected. RH values also will fall into the 15-25 percent range. While these conditions will be present across a larger area from southeast AZ through much of NM, fuel conditions do not appear favorable further west and any threat should remain focused across the High Plains to the east of the central mountains in NM into southwest TX. Some brief and localized critical conditions cannot be ruled out, mainly closer to the mountains where RH values will be lowest due to dry, downslope winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - 6 hours 39 min ago

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a strong high pressure system near Bermuda and
lower pressures over northern portions of South America. This
pattern is supporting winds of minimal gale-force near the coast
of Colombia through this afternoon. Wave heights within the area
of gale- force winds will range from 11 to 14 feet. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gale force winds are also occurring over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean associated with a 998 mb low pressure system near 27N 25W.
This low is expected to approach the Canary Islands during the
next 24 hours. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas
Forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-
METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 8N13W and
continues to 1N28W, where the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ extends
southwestward and crosses the Equator near 31W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 1N to 5N between 12W and
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the upper
Texas coast, into the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas,
to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N97W. The stationary front
continues to the Big Bend of Texas, and the Far West of Texas.
Scattered showers are possible, in areas of scattered- to- broken
low level clouds, from 93W eastward, and to the west of the line
from 30N92W in Louisiana, to 22N97W along the coast of Mexico.

The current stationary front, that is to the north of 24N between
96W and 97W, will weaken overnight, and then dissipate on Friday.
A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf late on Saturday
night, then stall and weaken from the FL panhandle to NE Mexico
from Sunday through Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N to
19N between 80W and 82W, about 200 nm to the W of Jamaica. Other
rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals have
been generally low...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC: 0.45 in
Curacao, and 0.31 in Guadeloupe.

The winds will pulse to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia tonight. Strong surface high pressure that is to the
N of the area will support fresh-to-strong trade winds across
the forecast waters that are to the east of 80W through Friday
night. The area of strong high pressure will weaken from Saturday
through Monday night, leading to diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward between Africa and 35W. The aforementioned low pressure
system in the SPECIAL FEATURES section is producing numerous
showers and thunderstorms north of 22N and east of 26W. Otherwise,
generally quiet conditions exist across the remainder of the
region supported by strong surface high pressure centered just
west of Bermuda. This high is forecast to weaken and shift
southward this weekend while a cold front pushes off the SE coast
of the U.S. on Monday, and then becomes stationary along 28N on
Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/JPC
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - 11 hours 1 min ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will remain over the western U.S. on Saturday. A shortwave trough will eject east/northeast from the southern Rockies to the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Rockies by the end of the period. This will maintain strong westerly deep layer flow over the central and southern Rockies into the adjacent Plains. At the surface, a tight surface pressure gradient over the southern High Plains will be maintained into the afternoon before surface high pressure over the Great Basin weakens and the gradient slackens. This will aid in development of gusty downslope surface winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected, where fuels are dry from parts of southeast CO, eastern NM, western TX and extreme southwest OK. Sustained westerly wind of 15-20 mph with higher gusts are expected as RH values fall into the 12-20 percent range. Critical fire weather conditions may occur on a brief/spotty basis as well. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - 11 hours 2 min ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today, mainly across portions of eastern NM and southwest TX. The western upper trough will rotate across the Four Corners region toward the Rockies and adjacent High Plains by tonight. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase and a weak lee trough will develop over the southern High Plains. As a result, breezy southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph with some higher gusts are expected. RH values also will fall into the 15-25 percent range. While these conditions will be present across a larger area from southeast AZ through much of NM, fuel conditions do not appear favorable further west and any threat should remain focused across the High Plains to the east of the central mountains in NM into southwest TX. Some brief and localized critical conditions cannot be ruled out, mainly closer to the mountains where RH values will be lowest due to dry, downslope winds. ..Leitman.. 02/23/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/22/2018 - 23:12

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1212 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting
winds reaching gale-force strength from 11N to 13N between 74W
and 76.5W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will
range from 11 feet to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: in the western part of IRVING and in the
western part of METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 24/0000 UTC, consists of: the
threat of NW near gale or gale in the western part of IRVING and
in the western part of METEOR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W and 01N28W. The ITCZ continues from
01N28W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 02S39W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward between
12W and 23W, and from 04N southward between 41W and 47W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the upper
Texas coast, into the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas,
to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N98W. The stationary front
continues to the Big Bend of Texas, and the Far West of Texas.
Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low
level clouds, from 93W eastward, and to the west of the line from
30N92W in Louisiana, to 22N97W along the coast of Mexico.

The current stationary front, that is to the north of 24N between
96W and 97W, will weaken overnight, and then dissipate on Friday.
A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf late on Saturday
night, then stall and weaken from the FL panhandle to NE Mexico
from Sunday through Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N to
19N between 80W and 82W, about 200 nm to the W of Jamaica. Other
rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals, in
inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 23/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.45 in Curacao, and 0.31
in Guadeloupe.

The winds will pulse to minimal gale-force near the coast of
Colombia tonight. Strong surface high pressure that is to the
N of the area will support fresh-to-strong trade winds across
the forecast waters that are to the east of 80W through Friday
night. The area of strong high pressure will weaken from Saturday
through Monday night, leading to diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward between Africa and 35W. A dissipating cold front extends
from a 998 mb low pressure center that is near 31N28W, to 25N22W
and 17N29W. A shear line continues from 17N29W to 15N40W, 14N50W
and 15N61W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 23N northward between the western part of
the Canary Islands and 30W. Broken low level clouds and other
possible rainshowers are to the NW and N of the line that passes
through 32N15W to 23N18W 14N30W 11N50W and 11N60W.

Strong surface high pressure that is near Bermuda will weaken and
shift southward from Saturday through Monday night. A cold front
will push off the SE coast of the U.S. on Monday, and then become
stationary along 28N on Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/22/2018 - 18:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting
winds reaching gale-force strength from 11N to 13N between 74W
and 76.5W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will
range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 24/0000
UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in the
western sections of IRVING and in the western sections of METEOR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from
03N19W, crossing the Equator along 23W, to 05S37W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N
southward from 53W eastward. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the upper
Texas coast, into the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas,
to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N98W. The stationary front
continues to the Big Bend of Texas, and the Far West of Texas.
Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low
level clouds, that are from 28N southward from 90W eastward,
and from 93W westward.

The current stationary front that is along the coasts of NE
Mexico and Texas will move N tonight. Strong winds will affect
the Straits of Florida and the waters adjacent to the Yucatan
Peninsula tonight. Otherwise, strong high pressure in the W
Atlantic Ocean will generate moderate to fresh SE return flow
across the basin through Sunday. A weak cold front will drift
into the Texas coastal waters late on Sunday, then head SE and
extend from the FL Panhandle to Veracruz Mexico on Monday
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 22/1200 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.41 in Guadeloupe, 0.27 in St.
Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.26 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico.

Strong high pres near Bermuda will dominate the
region through the end of the week. Fresh to strong trade winds
will prevail across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlc waters
through Fri night, with nocturnal winds pulsing to gale force
along the Colombia coast. The strong high will weaken this weekend
into early next week, leading to diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front is along 32N22W 20N26W 17N30W. A shear
line continues from 17N30W to 15N48W and 15N60W.
Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW
and N of the boundaries.

W Atlc ridge will persist near 31N through the weekend. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail N of 25N with fresh to strong winds
continuing S of 25N through Fri evening. Large NNE swell will move
through waters E of 65W through Fri night. A weak cold front may
move off the NE Florida coast Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/22/2018 - 13:59
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible in eastern New Mexico and vicinity Friday afternoon. Areas of gusty winds (locally exceeding 20-25 mph) will coincide with 15-25% RH values during the afternoon across the elevated area. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 02/22/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ ...Synopsis... The western upper trough centered over the Great Basin will track eastward to the southern/central Rockies on Friday. As heights fall, deep layer southwesterly flow will increase and a weak surface trough will develop across the southern High Plains. This will lead to breezy southwest surface winds across much of NM. RH values also will fall into the 15-25 percent range. This will result in elevated fire weather potential across the eastern NM Plains into parts of far southeast CO and southwestern TX. While gusty winds and low RH will also exist across western and central NM, fuel conditions are less favorable than further east, limiting fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/22/2018 - 12:05

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of S America. This pattern is supporting winds
reaching gale force strength from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W.
Waveheights within the area of gale force winds will range from
12-14 feet. These winds are forecast to diminish below gale force
early this afternoon, then develop again tonight and Fri night.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000
UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in IRVING
and in METEOR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal sections of
Guinea near 10N14W to 03N19W, where latest scatterometer data
indicated it transitions to the ITCZ dropping below the equator
at 24W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm
of the axis between 11W-15W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen S of 04N between 30W- 42W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of 03N between 24W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front that moved into the far NW Gulf during the
overnight hours has become stationary along a position from near
the Texas/SW Louisiana border to a 1020 mb low at 27N96W and to
inland the coast of Mexico at 24N98W as of 15Z this morning.
Isolated showers and small patches of rain are along and NW of the
front and low per latest NWS radar imagery. Stratus clouds and
areas of dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less are observed along
the coast of Texas, and east from there to within about 75 nm of
that coast. Similar areas of dense fog are along the coast of
Mexico N of 19N. The fog is expected to linger into this evening.
A terrain induced weak low of 1019 mb is near Tuxpan with a
trough extending southeastward to 20N96W, and another trough
extending northward to 23N97W. The stationary front is forecast to
begin to lift back N as a warm front today. A weak cold front is
expected to slowly move to the Texas coastal late on Sun, then
move southeastward reaching from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz
by Mon afternoon. The gradient associated with strong high
pressure that extends from the western Atlantic to over the
eastern and central gulf waters will maintain fresh east to
southeast winds to the E of the front and low, with the exception
of strong east winds across the Straits of Florida through tonight
before diminishing to mainly fresh winds on Friday as the ridge
weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning that is in effect for the waters near the coast
of Colombia.

Scattered to broken low clouds with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are associated with a shear line,
and are noted from 15N-17N east of about 67W. Gusty winds
can be expected with these showers. Strong surface high pressure
across the NW Atlantic Ocean will dominate the region, settling
across the Bermuda area through Sat. Fresh to strong trade winds
will prevail across the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N Atlantic
Ocean today, with nocturnal winds expected along the coast of
Colombia expected to diminish to just below gale force early this
afternoon, then pulse back to gale force tonight and Fri night.
Surface high pressure will weaken through the weekend leading to
diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from an upper low dropping southward
N of the area at 34N28W through 32N29W to 24N38W, then continues
as a cyclonic shear axis to 23N46W to 21N56W and to the NE
Caribbean Sea. The trough supports a cold front that enters the
area at 32N23W, and continues to 25N24W to 18N33W, where it
transitions to a shear line to 17N38W to 16N48W to just S of
Martinque and to the eastern Caribbean Sea at 17N71W. Broken low
level clouds with scattered showers are within 45 nm either side
of the shear line. The surface low associated with the upper low
at 32N28W is forecast to intensify as it quickly drops southward
reaching to near 29N26W with a pressure of 998 mb by early on Fri.
Strong to gale force winds will accompany the low along with large
seas. An associated cold front is forecast to extend from near
25N35W to 25N44W to 28N49W by early on Sat. Strong to near gale
force NW to N winds and seas of 10-17 ft are expected to the
north of a line from 25N35W TO 25N44W TO 28N49W at that time.

A western Atlantic ridge will persist along 33N/34N through Fri,
then slowly move southwestward and weaken slowly through the
weekend. Patches of low clouds moving quickly westward with
isolated showers will continue to the S of 26N and west of 50W
outside those associated with the aforementioned shear line.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N, with fresh to
strong winds S of 25N through Thursday. NNE swell will move
through the waters that are to the E of 65W through Friday night.
It is possible that a weak cold front may move off the NE Florida
coast early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/22/2018 - 09:43
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track, with continued quiescent fire weather across the Lower 48. ..Cook.. 02/22/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western U.S. will deepen and slowly shift east over the Great Basin today. Downstream, a broad swath of deep layer southwesterly flow will persist east of the Rockies. Strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will track east toward New England. Gulf moisture will slosh northeast as Wednesday cold front retreats as a warm front across the lower Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Fire weather concerns are not expected given widespread precipitation over the last few days east of the Rockies, and a general lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Thu, 02/22/2018 - 06:22

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221221 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting
winds reaching gale force strength from 10.5N to 13N between
73.5W and 77W. Waveheights within the area of gale force winds
will range from 12-14 feet. These winds are forecast to diminish
below gale force on Fri. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000
UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in IRVING
and in METEOR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal sections of
Guinea near 10N14W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W,
crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02S27W, and to 03S33W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen S of 05N
between 26W and 38W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere S of
10N and E of 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

A weak cold front that moved into the far NW Gulf during the
overnight hours is along a position from near the Texas/SW
Louisiana border to a 1019 mb low at 27N96W and to inland the
far NE coast of Mexico as of 09Z this morning. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are along and NW of the front and low per
latest NWS radar imagery. The cold front is forecast to become
stationary before lifting back N as a warm front today. A weak
cold front is expected to drift into the far NW Gulf on Sat
night, then become stationary. The gradient associated with
strong high pressure that extends from the western Atlantic to
over the eastern and central gulf waters will maintain fresh
east to southeast winds to the E of the front and low, with the
exception of strong east winds across the Straits of Florida
through tonight before diminishing to mainly fresh winds on
Friday as the ridge weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning that is in effect for the waters near the coast
of Colombia.

Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through Sat.
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea
and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean today, with nocturnal winds
expected to pulse one more night to gale force winds off the
coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will weaken through the
weekend leading to diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from an upper low dropping southward
N of the area at 34N28W through 32N29W to 24N38W, then continues
as a cyclonic shear axis to 23N46W to 21N56W and to the NE
Caribbean Sea. The trough supports a cold front that is along
a position from 32N23W to 21N29W, and as shear line to 18N49W to
17N58W and to the eastern Caribbean Sea at 17N71W. Broken low
level clouds with isolated showers are to the NW and N of the
line that passes through 32N22W to 23N26W, to 16N40W 15N60W, and
to 15N73W in the Caribbean Sea.

A West Atlantic Ocean surface ridge will persist along 33N-34N
through Thursday, and then drift SW and weaken slowly through
the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N,
with fresh to strong winds S of 25N through Thursday. NNE swell
will move through the waters that are to the E of 65W through
Friday night. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off
the NE Florida coast early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/22/2018 - 01:31
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... The western upper trough centered over the Great Basin will track eastward to the southern/central Rockies on Friday. As heights fall, deep layer southwesterly flow will increase and a weak surface trough will develop across the southern High Plains. This will lead to breezy southwest surface winds across much of NM. RH values also will fall into the 15-25 percent range. This will result in elevated fire weather potential across the eastern NM Plains into parts of far southeast CO and southwestern TX. While gusty winds and low RH will also exist across western and central NM, fuel conditions are less favorable than further east, limiting fire weather concerns. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/22/2018 - 01:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western U.S. will deepen and slowly shift east over the Great Basin today. Downstream, a broad swath of deep layer southwesterly flow will persist east of the Rockies. Strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will track east toward New England. Gulf moisture will slosh northeast as Wednesday cold front retreats as a warm front across the lower Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Fire weather concerns are not expected given widespread precipitation over the last few days east of the Rockies, and a general lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH values. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Thu, 02/22/2018 - 01:29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western U.S. will deepen and slowly shift east over the Great Basin today. Downstream, a broad swath of deep layer southwesterly flow will persist east of the Rockies. Strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will track east toward New England. Gulf moisture will slosh northeast as Wednesday cold front retreats as a warm front across the lower Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Fire weather concerns are not expected given widespread precipitation over the last few days east of the Rockies, and a general lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH values. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/21/2018 - 23:31

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting
winds reaching gale-force strength from 10.5N to 13N between
73.5W and 77W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds
will range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000
UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in IRVING
and in METEOR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, crossing
the Equator along 24W, to 02S27W, and to 03S33W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N
southward from 53W eastward. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is
to the south of the line 23N17W 17N40W 16N50W 14N68W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front is along the Texas Gulf coast. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 24N99W in Mexico,
to 31N95W in east Texas/the upper Texas coast.

The current weak cold front that is along the Texas coast will
drift into the coastal waters tonight and stall before moving
inland on Thursday. Strong high pressure across the W Atlantic
Ocean will maintain a ridge extending W across the U.S.A. Gulf
coast states in order to produce fresh return flow across most
of the basin, except for strong winds through the Straits of
Florida and across central sections of the Gulf of Mexico.
A weak cold front will drift into the far NW waters on Saturday
night, and stall there through the remainder of the weekend into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.46 in Guadeloupe.

Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through the
end of the week. Fresh-to-strong trade winds will prevail across
the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through
Thursday, with nocturnal winds pulsing to gale-force winds off the
coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will weaken through the
weekend into early next week, leading to diminishing winds and
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N29W to 26N31W, 22N37W,
23N48W, 16N57W, and to 14N63W in the Caribbean Sea. The trough
supports a cold front, that passes through 32N24W to 22N30W to
20N35W. A shear line continues from 20N35W to 18N50W, 17N60W,
across the NE Caribbean Sea, to 17N70W in the Caribbean Sea.
Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the
NW and N of the line that passes through 32N22W to 23N26W,
to 16N40W 15N60W, and to 15N73W in the Caribbean Sea.

A West Atlantic Ocean surface ridge will persist along 33N-34N
through Thursday, and then drift SW and weaken slowly through the
weekend. Gentle-to-moderate winds will prevail N of 25N, with
fresh-to- strong winds S of 25N through Thursday. NNE swell will
move through the waters that are to the E of 65W through Friday
night. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off the NE
Florida coast early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/21/2018 - 18:04

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting
winds reaching gale-force strength from 11N to 13N between 73.5W
and 77W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will
range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: IRVING.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, crossing
the Equator along 22W, to 03S30W, to 03S40W at the coast of Brazil.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 06N southward from 53W eastward. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW
wind flow is to the south of the line 24N16W 18N40W 13N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front will drift into the Texas coastal waters
through the evening before stalling and moving back inland into
early Thu. Strong high pressure across the W Atlc will maintain a
ridge extending W across the Gulf coast states to produce fresh
return flow across most of the basin, except strong winds through
the Straits of Florida and across central portion of the Gulf. A
weak cold front will drift into the far NW waters Sat night and
stall there through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC... according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.77 in Guadeloupe, 0.06 in
Curacao and in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.03 in St. Thomas in the
U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.01 in Freeport in the Bahamas.

Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through the
end of the week. Fresh-to-strong trade winds will prevail across
the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean waters
through Thursday, with nocturnal winds pulsing to gale-force
winds off the coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will
weaken through the weekend into early next week, leading to
diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

W Atlc ridge will persist along 33N-34N through Thu then drift SW
and slowly weaken through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail N of 25N with fresh to strong winds S of 25N through
Thu. NNE swell will move through waters E of 65W through Fri
night. A weak cold front may move off the NE Florida coast early
next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/21/2018 - 11:03
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Gleason.. 02/21/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ ...Synopsis... The overall upper pattern will not change much on Day 2/Thursday. The western upper trough will develop southward across the Great Basin with southwesterly deep layer flow overspreading much of the CONUS eastern of the Rockies. The stalled surface cold front will slosh westward a bit, but generally remain draped from the Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Some breezy conditions and marginally low RH values will be possible ahead of the upper trough across parts of AZ and NM, but fuel conditions are unfavorable and fire weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/21/2018 - 11:03
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Gleason.. 02/21/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ ...Synopsis... The overall upper pattern will not change much on Day 2/Thursday. The western upper trough will develop southward across the Great Basin with southwesterly deep layer flow overspreading much of the CONUS eastern of the Rockies. The stalled surface cold front will slosh westward a bit, but generally remain draped from the Ohio Valley into eastern TX. Some breezy conditions and marginally low RH values will be possible ahead of the upper trough across parts of AZ and NM, but fuel conditions are unfavorable and fire weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS Weather - Wed, 02/21/2018 - 10:50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the western
Atlc and low pressure over South America are combining to maintain
a tight surface pressure gradient over the Caribbean. This
pattern is supporting winds reaching gale force strength along the
coast of Colombia from 10N to 13.5N between 73W and 77.5W. Wave
heights within the area of gale force winds are currently ranging
between 10 feet and 16 feet. This synoptic setup is expected to
remain in place through Fri morning. Low pres moving E from New
England will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc and allow the
gales to subside Sat and Sun. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W,
crossing the Equator near 23W, to 02S28W, to near the coast of
Brazil near 03S38W. Convection: Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present from 01N to 06N between 07W and 15W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 02N between
20W and 29W and from 04S to 00N between 29W and 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad deep layer ridging extending SW from the western Atlc over
Florida to the SW Gulf dominates the basin. The ridging is
currently suppressing convection over all of the basin except
along the coasts of NE Texas and SW Louisiana. This convection is
associated with a frontal boundary that is stalling over southern
Texas. The front is expected to begin retreating northward on Thu
night.

The strong ridge of high pressure will support a dry weather
pattern over the Gulf for the next several days. Moderate to
fresh ESE to SE return flow will prevail basin wide during this
time frame. Winds could be locally strong over the Straits of
Florida and just N of the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon.
Another weak cold front will move slowly into the far NW waters
on Sunday, then stall there Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details concerning
the Gale Warning for the waters adjacent to the coast of Colombia.

A surface ridge passes across central Cuba, to 19N82W in the NW
corner of the area, to southern Costa Rica.

Strong high pressure centered N of Bermuda will maintain fresh-
to strong trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N
Atlantic waters through Friday. Winds will pulse to gale force off
the coast of Colombia during the nocturnal maximum. A shear line
sinking southward from 20N will augment winds and seas N of 15N
and E of 70W as it sinks slowly S during the next couple of days.
High pressure over the western Atlc will weaken Sat and Sun,
leading to diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends SW through 32N34W to 23N53W to
24N48W, to 18N62W. A cold front passes through 32N28W, to 24N36W
and 20N53W. A dissipating cold front continues from 20N53W to
19N65W. The front is transitioning into a shear line W of 50W.
Broken to overcast low level clouds and scattered rainshowers are
occurring along and up to 60 nm NE of this boundary.

Broad high pres will persist over the western Atlc through the
end of the week. The ridge will be weakened slightly on Sat and
Sun as low pres moves E from new England. Gentle to moderate winds
will generally prevail N of 25N with fresh to strong winds
generally expected S of 25N through Friday. Winds and seas will be
highest along and N of the shear line as it sinks slowly S.
Persistent deep-layer low pres centered over the eastern Atlc near
the Azores will weaken the subtropical ridge E of 40W, resulting
in moderate NE winds for the waters S of 25N for the next few
days. Winds and seas will be higher for the waters E of 40W and N
of 25N for the next couple of days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
Categories: Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Weather - Fire Weather - Wed, 02/21/2018 - 10:02
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Gleason.. 02/21/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will persist across the western U.S. while expansive southwesterly flow encompasses much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will track eastward off the TX coast and through New England, with the mid-South portion of the front stalling from KY into the lower MS Valley region. Strong surface high pressure will build over the Plains and Great Lakes behind the front and generally moist conditions are expected from the southern Plains into the southeastern U.S. A lack of strong surface winds aligning with low RH conditions will preclude fire weather concerns today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Categories: Weather

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