Weather

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches, with local amounts up to 15 inches. * WHERE...Areas near Alpine, Doney Park, Flagstaff, Forest Lakes, Winter Storm Warning 2019-02-16T04:27:00-07:00 2019-02-18T23:00:00-07:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Moderate Likely Coconino Plateau; Eastern Mogollon Rim; Kaibab Plateau; Northern Gila County; Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons; Western Mogollon Rim; White Mountains; Yavapai County Mountains FIPS6 004001 004005 004007 004017 004025 UGC AZZ004 AZZ007 AZZ008 AZZ015 AZZ016 AZZ017 AZZ018 AZZ038 VTEC /O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0003.190217T1800Z-190219T0600Z/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches are expected. * WHERE...Areas near Grand Canyon and North Rim. Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T04:27:00-07:00 2019-02-18T23:00:00-07:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Grand Canyon Country FIPS6 004005 UGC AZZ006 VTEC /O.EXA.KFGZ.WW.Y.0006.190217T1800Z-190219T0600Z/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 7 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Areas near Camp Verde, Chino Valley, Congress, Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T04:27:00-07:00 2019-02-18T23:00:00-07:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Yavapai County Valleys and Basins FIPS6 004025 UGC AZZ037 VTEC /O.CON.KFGZ.WW.Y.0006.190217T1800Z-190219T0600Z/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM MST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 9 inches, are expected. Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T04:27:00-07:00 2019-02-18T23:00:00-07:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Black Mesa Area; Chinle Valley; Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau; Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County; Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County; Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County; Marble and Glen Canyons; Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward; Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264 FIPS6 004001 004005 004017 UGC AZZ005 AZZ009 AZZ010 AZZ011 AZZ012 AZZ013 AZZ014 AZZ039 AZZ040 VTEC /O.CON.KFGZ.WW.Y.0006.190218T0000Z-190219T0600Z/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow showers and gusty winds expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches with local amounts up to 10 inches above 3500 feet and up to 2 inches down to 2500 feet through midday Saturday. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T03:26:00-08:00 2019-02-18T03:00:00-08:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Santa Barbara County Mountains FIPS6 006083 UGC CAZ052 VTEC /O.CON.KLOX.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190218T1100Z/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow showers and gusty winds expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with local amounts up to 12 inches above 3500 feet and up to 2 inches down to 2500 feet through early Monday morning. Snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T03:26:00-08:00 2019-02-18T03:00:00-08:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Los Angeles County Mountains excluding the Santa Monica Range; Ventura County Mountains FIPS6 006037 006111 UGC CAZ053 CAZ054 VTEC /O.CON.KLOX.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190218T1100Z/

Snow will move over the mountains today, with the heaviest snow expected this morning. This will create hazardous and slow travel conditions. Travelers should be prepared for winter weather and possible delays, especially on Interstate 70 west of Denver this morning. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T04:21:00-07:00 2019-02-16T12:00:00-07:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely South and East Jackson, Larimer, North and Northeast Grand, Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet; South and Southeast Grand, West Central and Southwest Boulder, Gilpin, Clear Creek, Summit, North and West Park Counties Above 9000 Feet; West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet FIPS6 008019 008047 008049 008057 008069 008093 008117 UGC COZ031 COZ033 COZ034 VTEC /O.CON.KBOU.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190216T1900Z/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Isolated gusts up to 55 mph are possible in the foothills. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. This includes Highways 14 and 138, Wind Advisory 2019-02-16T03:19:00-08:00 2019-02-16T18:00:00-08:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Antelope Valley FIPS6 006037 UGC CAZ059 VTEC /O.CON.KLOX.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190217T0200Z/

...WINTER STORM TO EFFECT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES... .A low pressure system will move across Oregon today and tonight and produce significant accumulating snow across portions of central Oregon today and tonight. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY... Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T03:16:00-08:00 2019-02-17T04:00:00-08:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades FIPS6 041017 041031 UGC ORZ509 VTEC /O.NEW.KPDT.WW.Y.0012.190216T1116Z-190217T1200Z/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet, Western Mosquito Range and East Lake County Above 11000 Feet, and the Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T04:11:00-07:00 2019-02-16T12:00:00-07:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft; Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft; Western Mosquito Range, East Lake County Above 11000 Ft FIPS6 008015 008021 008065 008079 008105 UGC COZ058 COZ060 COZ068 VTEC /O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190216T1900Z/

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
555 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W and extends
to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 04S36W. Scattered showers are occurring south of 02S
between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters.
Latest scatterometer and surface data depict a moderate to
locally fresh southerly wind flow across the basin. A surface
trough is located along the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W to
18N91W. No significant convection is observed across the Gulf
waters.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Sun,
maintaining moderate to locally fresh SE return flow over the
western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico
Sun and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico
by early Mon as broad low pres forms off Veracruz in the SW Gulf
through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters
through Tue morning, then lift NW across the northern Gulf by late
Tue as the low moves inland over NE Mexico and dissipates. The
front will move again over the NW Gulf by Wed, reaching from SE
Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a
base over the Southwestern Caribbean while surface ridge builds
across the Western Caribbean. Diffluent flow to the east of the
upper-level trough supports scattered showers NE of Hispaniola
and adjacent waters. Surface ridging also prevails across the
eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers are possible Western
Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 19N81W to 17N83W and a
second trough further east is near 20N77W to 16N79W. No
significant convection is observed in the vicinity of both
troughs. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trades
over the eastern Caribbean while a gentle to moderate trades are
observed west of 80W.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high
pres building N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected over the S central Caribbean Sun night through Tue night,
with gale conditions possible off Colombia on Mon night. Fresh to
strong E to SE are also expected across the Caribbean water W of
85W, including the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Wed night. NE to E
swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands
will gradually subside through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Latest scatterometer data indicate a weak high pressure centered
near 28N74W with gentle winds west of 73W. A mid to upper-level
trough extends from the west Atlantic to a base over the SW
Caribbean with diffluent flow to the east of the upper-level
trough supporting scattered showers from 18N between 56W-68W. A
1011 low press is centered near 31N69W with a surface trough
extending southward to 26N72W. No convection is noted with this
trough. A warm front also extends to the east of the low into the
central Atlantic near 34N45W. The remainder central and eastern
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb
surface high centered near 30N38W.

Weak high pressure centered near 28N74W will keep gentle to
moderate winds across the region. A cold front will move across
the waters N of 29N early Sun, pushing E of 65W by early Mon.
Another cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Mon
afternoon through Tue. The western part of the front is forecast
to lift N on Wed as another cold front approaches from the W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. * IMPACTS...Frequent life-threatening Rip Currents are expected. The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Rip Current Statement 2019-02-16T04:54:00-06:00 2019-02-16T18:00:00-06:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Moderate Likely Baldwin Coastal; Mobile Coastal FIPS6 001003 001097 UGC ALZ265 ALZ266 VTEC /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0008.190216T1200Z-190217T0000Z/

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. * IMPACTS...Frequent life-threatening Rip Currents are expected. The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Rip Current Statement 2019-02-16T05:54:00-05:00 2019-02-16T19:00:00-05:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Moderate Likely Escambia Coastal; Okaloosa Coastal; Santa Rosa Coastal FIPS6 012033 012091 012113 UGC FLZ202 FLZ204 FLZ206 VTEC /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0008.190216T1200Z-190217T0000Z/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM MST MONDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM MST MONDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 5000 feet. Above 5000 feet, total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches expected. Total snow Winter Storm Warning 2019-02-16T03:49:00-07:00 2019-02-18T14:00:00-07:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Moderate Likely Mazatzal Mountains; Pinal, Superstition Mountains; Southeast Gila County FIPS6 004007 004013 004021 UGC AZZ557 AZZ558 AZZ563 VTEC /O.NEW.KPSR.WS.W.0001.190217T2200Z-190218T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KPSR.WW.Y.0001.190217T2200Z-190218T2100Z/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM MST MONDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 4000 feet. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch expected. * WHERE...New River Mesa, Dripping Springs and Globe/Miami. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 2 PM MST Monday. Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T03:49:00-07:00 2019-02-18T14:00:00-07:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Dripping Springs; Globe, Miami; New River Mesa FIPS6 004007 004013 UGC AZZ545 AZZ561 AZZ562 VTEC /O.NEW.KPSR.WW.Y.0001.190217T2200Z-190218T2100Z/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM MST MONDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM MST MONDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 5000 feet. Above 5000 feet, total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches expected. Total snow Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T03:49:00-07:00 2019-02-18T14:00:00-07:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Mazatzal Mountains; Pinal, Superstition Mountains; Southeast Gila County FIPS6 004007 004013 004021 UGC AZZ557 AZZ558 AZZ563 VTEC /O.NEW.KPSR.WS.W.0001.190217T2200Z-190218T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KPSR.WW.Y.0001.190217T2200Z-190218T2100Z/

...Looking Ahead To Another Potential Heavy Rain Threat... A frontal boundary is expected to stall somewhere near the region by the middle to end of this coming week. During this time, multiple waves of plentiful moisture are expected to ride along the boundary bringing widespread rain over the area. Given the recent heavy rain, ongoing river flooding in spots, and Hydrologic Outlook 2019-02-16T05:42:00-05:00 2019-02-16T16:00:00-05:00 Actual Alert Met Future Unknown Possible Adair; Allen; Anderson; Barren; Boyle; Butler; Casey; Clark; Clinton; Cumberland; Edmonson; Fayette; Garrard; Grayson; Green; Hardin; Hart; Jessamine; Larue; Lincoln; Logan; Madison; Marion; Mercer; Metcalfe; Monroe; Nelson; Russell; Simpson; Taylor; Warren; Washington; Woodford FIPS6 021001 021003 021005 021009 021021 021031 021045 021049 021053 021057 021061 021067 021079 021085 021087 021093 021099 021113 021123 021137 021141 021151 021155 021167 021169 021171 021179 021207 021213 021217 021227 021229 021239 UGC KYZ027 KYZ028 KYZ039 KYZ040 KYZ041 KYZ045 KYZ046 KYZ047 KYZ048 KYZ049 KYZ053 KYZ054 KYZ055 KYZ056 KYZ057 KYZ061 KYZ062 KYZ063 KYZ064 KYZ065 KYZ066 KYZ067 KYZ070 KYZ071 KYZ072 KYZ073 KYZ074 KYZ075 KYZ076 KYZ077 KYZ078 KYZ081 KYZ082 VTEC

.Snow showers are continuing through the early morning hours, and are affecting many areas of southern Oregon and northern California, including most of the passes. Snow showers will continue Saturday, then decrease in coverage Saturday night, but will remain in the area into Sunday morning as snow levels fall close to the valley floors. Winter Storm Warning 2019-02-16T02:38:00-08:00 2019-02-16T10:00:00-08:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Moderate Likely Western Siskiyou County FIPS6 006093 UGC CAZ080 VTEC /O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190216T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190216T1800Z/

.Snow showers are continuing through the early morning hours, and are affecting many areas of southern Oregon and northern California, including most of the passes. Snow showers will continue Saturday, then decrease in coverage Saturday night, but will remain in the area into Sunday morning as snow levels fall close to the valley floors. Winter Storm Warning 2019-02-16T02:38:00-08:00 2019-02-16T10:00:00-08:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Moderate Likely South Central Siskiyou County FIPS6 006093 UGC CAZ082 VTEC /O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190216T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190216T1800Z/

.Snow showers are continuing through the early morning hours, and are affecting many areas of southern Oregon and northern California, including most of the passes. Snow showers will continue Saturday, then decrease in coverage Saturday night, but will remain in the area into Sunday morning as snow levels fall close to the valley floors. Winter Weather Advisory 2019-02-16T02:38:00-08:00 2019-02-16T10:00:00-08:00 Actual Alert Met Expected Minor Likely Western Siskiyou County FIPS6 006093 UGC CAZ080 VTEC /O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190216T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190216T1800Z/